Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[Little Slide Rooter]

So, to sum up:

 

Positives: Age, Injury History, Plate Discipline, Power, Covers a position of need, Left-handed

Negatives: Baserunning, Fielding, Body Type

 

If one looks at that list, and favors not signing Fielder, it seems to me one resigns the Cubs to small-marketdom.

At the same time, he's even more valuable to an AL team because his negatives can be hidden so much more easily. So if Seattle/Texas/whoever values him highly enough to offer him an 8-year deal upwards of $200 million, I wouldn't want the Cubs to match.

 

Agreed. I can't imagine us trying to beat that kind of deal anyway. I could see one of those teams givng him that kind of deal where he can DH when the time comes, and he'd likely accept because even if we offered him 5-6 years at a higher annual dollar amount, when that deal expired he'd probably be like Giambi/Vlad/Matsui/Thome signing a series of 1 year contracts until the leagues done with him.

[UMFan83]

I hate when threads like this jump 5 pages in several hours, even though I respect the intellectual discussion once I dive into it.

[bukie]

So, to sum up:

 

Positives: Age, Injury History, Plate Discipline, Power, Covers a position of need, Left-handed

Negatives: Baserunning, Fielding, Body Type

 

If one looks at that list, and favors not signing Fielder, it seems to me one resigns the Cubs to small-marketdom.

At the same time, he's even more valuable to an AL team because his negatives can be hidden so much more easily. So if Seattle/Texas/whoever values him highly enough to offer him an 8-year deal upwards of $200 million, I wouldn't want the Cubs to match.

 

I would agree with that. He has more long-term value to an AL team than the Cubs.

Which also unfortunately means that the Cubs are going to have to blow him out of the water with AAV to be competitive in the contract negotiations.

[Guest]

I'm saying I have a hard time quantifying any 1B on a runs or wins level when it comes to defense. It's such an unimportant defensive position, that I really have a hard time caring.

 

Yes. (From what I've read) No one is taking the indefensible position that Fielder doesn't suck on defense. We all know he does. We are just highly dubious that one can say his defense is "worth -5 runs." We know he produces a ton with his bat; his defensive value/worth, while not good, is theoretical.

 

We know the value is something. Everyone agrees he's below average. Every statistic agrees it's roughly -7. The fans scouting report rates him slightly worse than Jason Giambi. What are the odds that it's something meaningfully different than -7 in actuality? Even if it's actually -3.5 or whatever, it doesn't make a huge difference. His defense isn't the root cause of the fluctuations in his value.

 

Now, on the other hand, I'm very willing to consider that Prince is not regularly -6 as a baserunner.

[davearm2]

Yes. (From what I've read) No one is taking the indefensible position that Fielder doesn't suck on defense. We all know he does. We are just highly dubious that one can say his defense is "worth -5 runs." We know he produces a ton with his bat; his defensive value/worth, while not good, is theoretical.

The defensive metrics should indeed be taken with a grain of salt, but everything we're talking about on the offensive side is theoretical too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now, on the other hand, I'm very willing to consider that Prince is not regularly -6 as a baserunner.

 

I'm going to cheat a little and compare 2011 NL baserunning averages to Fielder's career totals.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01-bat.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

Runner is on 1st, single hit

Fielder (249 total)

221 second

23 third

5 out

 

2011 NL average (per 249)

173 second

73 third

3 out

 

Fielder net total: -50 thirds, + 2 outs

 

Runner is on 1st, double hit

Fielder (77 total)

54 third

21 home

2 out

 

2011 NL average (per 77)

42 third

33 home

2 out

 

Fielder net total: -12 homes

 

Runner is on 2nd, single hit

Fielder (109 total)

61 third

42 home

6 out

 

2011 NL average (per 109)

40 third

65 home

4 out

 

Fielder net total: -23 homes, +2 outs

 

Fielder combined net: -50 thirds, -35 homes, +4 outs

 

Fielder average per 162: -8 thirds, -6 homes, +1 out

 

Using some very rough estimates of the cost of a failure to advance each base based on Run Expectancy charts, I get

 

8(0.18) + 6(0.5) + 1(0.6) = 5 runs per year.

 

Throw in other baserunning situations for another run per year.

 

Yeah, seems very plausible to me.

[SouthSideRyan]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

 

That's worth considering, but I'd note that his failure rates are roughly similar for 1st to third and 2nd to home.

[Guest]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

 

Holy [expletive]... I don't know how I've never thought about this more, but I haven't.

 

Would a team with more lefty bats (assuming things being equal in terms of productivity) have a significant advantage in the long haul because of this?

 

I'm not sure how many LH are in the average lineup and how many more you'd need for this to actually have a measurable effect, but I'm just shocked it had never occurred to me before.

[CubColtPacer]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

 

Holy [expletive]... I don't know how I've never thought about this more, but I haven't.

 

Would a team with more lefty bats (assuming things being equal in terms of productivity) have a significant advantage in the long haul because of this?

 

I'm not sure how many LH are in the average lineup and how many more you'd need for this to actually have a measurable effect, but I'm just shocked it had never occurred to me before.

 

Teams usually put their best OF arm in right field though so while having a LH hitter up will help a runner go 1st to 3rd it could hurt him going 2nd to home.

[Exile on Waveland]

Yes. (From what I've read) No one is taking the indefensible position that Fielder doesn't suck on defense. We all know he does. We are just highly dubious that one can say his defense is "worth -5 runs." We know he produces a ton with his bat; his defensive value/worth, while not good, is theoretical.

The defensive metrics should indeed be taken with a grain of salt, but everything we're talking about on the offensive side is theoretical too.

 

No, it's not. His oWAR is theoritical. It's not theoritical that he has a .390 career OBP, or a career .540 slugging, or has hit 28-50-34-46-32-38 home runs (full seasons). Those are facts.

[SouthSideRyan]

I imagine the platoon split advantage vs end game LOOGYs would take away much of that advantage. Edited December 13, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[SouthSideRyan]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

 

Holy [expletive]... I don't know how I've never thought about this more, but I haven't.

 

Would a team with more lefty bats (assuming things being equal in terms of productivity) have a significant advantage in the long haul because of this?

 

I'm not sure how many LH are in the average lineup and how many more you'd need for this to actually have a measurable effect, but I'm just shocked it had never occurred to me before.

 

Teams usually put their best OF arm in right field though so while having a LH hitter up will help a runner go 1st to 3rd it could hurt him going 2nd to home.

 

Without going through everyone's roster, I feel like team's have gone away from that methodology(as well they should have IMO) instead positioning their OF based on range.

[Guest]

 

Teams usually put their best OF arm in right field though so while having a LH hitter up will help a runner go 1st to 3rd it could hurt him going 2nd to home.

 

I imagine the platoon split advantage vs lefty starters + end game LOOGYs would take away much of that advantage.

 

Good points.

 

I was actually going to stipulate that the lefties had to still be as good vs lefties, but that's too rare to even be worth thinking about.

[CubColtPacer]

Do the calculations for baserunning runs get adjusted based on batter-handedness? Prince having Corey Hart bat after him is going to be at a disadvantage compared to Braun having Prince Fielder hit after him. This is especially so for first to thirds, but I would also expect a minimal negative effect on the other situations.

 

Holy [expletive]... I don't know how I've never thought about this more, but I haven't.

 

Would a team with more lefty bats (assuming things being equal in terms of productivity) have a significant advantage in the long haul because of this?

 

I'm not sure how many LH are in the average lineup and how many more you'd need for this to actually have a measurable effect, but I'm just shocked it had never occurred to me before.

 

Teams usually put their best OF arm in right field though so while having a LH hitter up will help a runner go 1st to 3rd it could hurt him going 2nd to home.

 

Without going through everyone's roster, I feel like team's have gone away from that methodology(as well they should have IMO) instead positioning their OF based on range.

 

The average major league team LF recorded 312 putouts and had 10 assists.

The average major league team RF recorded 323 putouts and had 11 assists.

 

So they're close to the same, but I'm guessing it's even farther apart if you just look at assists at home plate. Of course there are other things to consider that might tip it closer to even (the runner might hesitate with a ball hit to the left side and less than 2 outs but not one to the right side).

[bukie]

Now, on the other hand, I'm very willing to consider that Prince is not regularly -6 as a baserunner.

 

Using some very rough estimates of the cost of a failure to advance each base based on Run Expectancy charts, I get

 

8(0.18) + 6(0.5) + 1(0.6) = 5 runs per year.

 

Throw in other baserunning situations for another run per year.

 

Yeah, seems very plausible to me.

 

Running it against other 1B only (minimum 10 games. Why 10? Because it's the fantasy limit too, and someone is hardly a 1B if they play the 18th inning at 1B because the manager ran out of players), Prince comes in the 38th percentile among baserunners (51st of 87 overall, 23rd of 37 qualified). Not great, of course, but not awful.

 

Oddly enough, the one qualified that came out the best was Carlos Pena.

 

Other high end offensive 1B (wOBA .350+) that came in ahead of Fielder: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Michael Cuddyer, Mark Teixeira, Mike Morse

Other high end offensive 1B that came in behind Fielder: Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez

[Rob]

Side note -- has anybody looked at what's happened to Ryan Howard the last couple years? And that crazy extension of his starts next year. That's gonna be a rough five years.

[ConstableRabbit]

Side note -- has anybody looked at what's happened to Ryan Howard the last couple years? And that crazy extension of his starts next year. That's gonna be a rough five years.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2006.shtml#NLmvp #-o

[davell]

For what it's worth, Jayson Stark said today the Cubs are leaders for Fielder and it's probably where he wants to play. Then, the guy on PSD who is money, said you can delete "probably" from that.

[RammyFanny]

Psd insider (the one you can take it to the bank with) said prince wants to be a cub. I know we've heard rumblings before, but if he says it it's pretty much true.

[Guest]

For what it's worth, Jayson Stark said today the Cubs are leaders for Fielder and it's probably where he wants to play. Then, the guy on PSD who is money, said you can delete "probably" from that.

 

 

Link to PSD forum thing?

 

Did Stark tweet that, write it somewhere, or say it on tv/radio or something?

[Guest]

Psd insider (the one you can take it to the bank with) said prince wants to be a cub. I know we've heard rumblings before, but if he says it it's pretty much true.

 

He's the guy who supposedly has ties within our organization, right? Called all the draft picks and such?

 

If so, why would Prince make that known to us? Seems like some lost leverage.

[bukie]

Side note -- has anybody looked at what's happened to Ryan Howard the last couple years? And that crazy extension of his starts next year. That's gonna be a rough five years.

What, you wouldn't want to be paying a slower, worse fielding Carlos Pena 25 mil a year for the next five? :)

[RammyFanny]

Psd insider (the one you can take it to the bank with) said prince wants to be a cub. I know we've heard rumblings before, but if he says it it's pretty much true.

 

He's the guy who supposedly has ties within our organization, right? Called all the draft picks and such?

 

If so, why would Prince make that known to us? Seems like some lost leverage.

yes that is him. Called draft prospects and other deals. Most recently had the kosuke prospects before anyone else and talked about penas deferred money a week before anyone mentioned it in media. I'm on iPod and can't copy link... It's on psd cubs forum ....pg 32 of fielder cespedes darvis thread . And then anpther comment from him on pg 34 I believe

[Guest]

Psd insider (the one you can take it to the bank with) said prince wants to be a cub. I know we've heard rumblings before, but if he says it it's pretty much true.

 

He's the guy who supposedly has ties within our organization, right? Called all the draft picks and such?

 

If so, why would Prince make that known to us? Seems like some lost leverage.

yes that is him. Called draft prospects and other deals. Most recently had the kosuke prospects before anyone else and talked about penas deferred money a week before anyone mentioned it in media. I'm on iPod and can't copy link... It's on psd cubs forum ....pg 32 of fielder cespedes darvis thread . And then anpther comment from him on pg 34 I believe

 

ty sir