Stewart/Dewitt swap?

[NewUserName]

a 4 page bump in this thread lead me to believe that there was a new hot rumor...this certainly ended up being disappointing.

[ctcf]

ChiTribRogers Phil Rogers

Placido Polanco joins the list of #cubs 3B possibilities. The question is will he have recovered from hernia surgeries by ST? #goodnumbers

 

Shut the [expletive] up, Phil Rogers

 

EDIT: Seriously though, that speculation is spectacularly dumb and doesn't even remotely fit in with anything we've heard about Hoyerstein's plans.

Edited December 5, 2011 by ctcf

[SouthSideRyan]

Is anyone saying take Headley's road #s and that's his expected level of performance? You're acting like he has a 371 BABIP in all games. Regression works both ways.

[davearm2]

Regression works both ways.

Thus the sieve I ran.

[Guest]

Which matched up to his actual BABIP, which brings us back where we started, to a 27 year old 2 win 3B who could be more than that if his swing really was screwed with by Petco.

[davearm2]

Which matched up to his actual BABIP, which brings us back where we started, to a 27 year old 2 win 3B who could be more than that if his swing really was screwed with by Petco.

Or could be less than that, if his BABIP normalizes.

 

Look my point all along is that the .805 career road OPS that people (naturally) gravitate to when evaluating what this guy could/would be outside of PetCo comes with a gigantic asterisk. It's about 80 points higher than his LD% would predict.

[Little Slide Rooter]

ChiTribRogers Phil Rogers

Placido Polanco joins the list of #cubs 3B possibilities. The question is will he have recovered from hernia surgeries by ST? #goodnumbers

 

Shut the [expletive] up, Phil Rogers

 

EDIT: Seriously though, that speculation is spectacularly dumb and doesn't even remotely fit in with anything we've heard about Hoyerstein's plans.

 

Good heavens no.

[Guest]

Which matched up to his actual BABIP, which brings us back where we started, to a 27 year old 2 win 3B who could be more than that if his swing really was screwed with by Petco.

Or could be less than that, if his BABIP normalizes.

 

Correct. He will probably be less productive if his BABIP dips from .339 to .334 as your extrapolation suggests.

[sneakypower]

Or could be less than that, if his BABIP normalizes.

 

Look my point all along is that the .805 career road OPS that people (naturally) gravitate to when evaluating what this guy could/would be outside of PetCo comes with a gigantic asterisk. It's about 80 points higher than his LD% would predict.

mysteriously, you're ignoring the effect of Petco's HR suppression on his OPS too

 

on another note, Headley's like Stewart in that his WAR was significantly hindered from playing out of position for so much time in 08-09

 

it's a really easy argument to make that his floor is a 3-win player right now

Edited December 5, 2011 by sneakypower

[davearm2]

Which matched up to his actual BABIP, which brings us back where we started, to a 27 year old 2 win 3B who could be more than that if his swing really was screwed with by Petco.

Or could be less than that, if his BABIP normalizes.

 

Correct. He will probably be less productive if his BABIP dips from .339 to .334 as your extrapolation suggests.

In that analysis, the point of reference is .735 OPS, not .805.

[Guest]

Well now you're just not even trying any more.

[davearm2]

Or could be less than that, if his BABIP normalizes.

 

Look my point all along is that the .805 career road OPS that people (naturally) gravitate to when evaluating what this guy could/would be outside of PetCo comes with a gigantic asterisk. It's about 80 points higher than his LD% would predict.

mysteriously, you're ignoring the effect of Petco's HR suppression on his OPS too

Well you'd be wrong about that, but just for kicks, explain the impact you think I'm missing.

 

What I see in the numbers is that Headley's HR/FB and HR/AB ratios are pretty stable between home and away. And as I showed earlier, Headley's HR/H ratio is actually a tad higher at home.

 

Bottom line, if you want to try and make an argument that PetCo has suppressed Headley's power, then you necessarily have to delve into the notion that the mechanics of his swing would be fundamentally different if he played in a different home park. Maybe they would, who knows. It's just a really nebulous and speculative argument.

[davearm2]

Well now you're just not even trying any more.

I don't follow. Headley has a .735 career OPS @ .339 BABIP, correct?

[Guest]

Well now you're just not even trying any more.

I don't follow. Headley has a .735 career OPS @ .339 BABIP, correct?

 

Yes, and with that production he's been a 2 win player.

[sneakypower]

Well now you're just not even trying any more.

I don't follow. Headley has a .735 career OPS @ .339 BABIP, correct?

 

Yes, and with that production he's been a 2 win player.

better than that, actually

 

like i said before, he was a complete disaster in LF; assuming no Kouzmanoff and he had just played 3B exclusively, with even just average defense (he's a career +7.8 UZR/150 there), these would be his win totals the last four seasons

 

2.0 (91 games played)

2.9

4.9

2.7 (113 games played)

 

so, in 3.25 seasons worth of games, he'd have totaled 12.5 WAR (3.85 per full season)

 

he's pretty good

[Rob]

I'd love to hear Rob's take on this because while dave's thought process is overly simplistic, I get the feeling that many people in this thread are being the same way

 

The math itself is easy enough to do to adjust BABIP and spit out the standard slash stats. I'm sure Dave is probably smart enough he hasn't messed that up.

 

However, the whole exercise is pointless if you aren't inputting a correct xBABIP. There are a couple standard calculators available, some of which may or may not require an additional park adjustment. For best results I'd probably use a combination of them regressed against his own career BABIP.

 

LD% + .140 doesn't cut it. Besides which, the rule was always .110 or .120.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Twitters rumors stating the Padre's may want cubs to take on Hudsons contract.... If it means giving up little for Headley I am all for it. Use Hudson as 2B/3B backup or eat some contract and spin him off in a different deal.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

[mul21]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

 

If that makes it a less prospect heavy deal and you can dump say, $4-5 million annually by getting rid of Soriano, I'd do that.

 

Was Hudson terrible last year or is it just the always hurt thing that causes hesitation?

[SouthSideRyan]

What happened to his defense last year? Unless he's breaking down physically, I'd have to imagine he'll have a bounce back year next year.

[Guest]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

 

There are worse gambles than Hudson being a 2 win player for one year, but at his dollars plus the commitment to Headley, you'd start to run into a situation where you can't make the big gains you need to at SP and 1B without more payroll. Getting flexibility in a deal involving Marmol, Soto, Garza, Soriano, Zambrano, or Byrd would do the trick, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

 

There are worse gambles than Hudson being a 2 win player for one year, but at his dollars plus the commitment to Headley, you'd start to run into a situation where you can't make the big gains you need to at SP and 1B without more payroll. Getting flexibility in a deal involving Marmol, Soto, Garza, Soriano, Zambrano, or Byrd would do the trick, though.

 

I'm sort of operating under the assumption that we won't be making any superstar acquisitions. If we do, I'll just consider it a nice surprise bonus.

[Guest]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

 

There are worse gambles than Hudson being a 2 win player for one year, but at his dollars plus the commitment to Headley, you'd start to run into a situation where you can't make the big gains you need to at SP and 1B without more payroll. Getting flexibility in a deal involving Marmol, Soto, Garza, Soriano, Zambrano, or Byrd would do the trick, though.

 

I'm sort of operating under the assumption that we won't be making any superstar acquisitions. If we do, I'll just consider it a nice surprise bonus.

 

Then it shouldn't really matter what 1 year contracts we take on then, right?

[Guest]

What happened to his defense last year? Unless he's breaking down physically, I'd have to imagine he'll have a bounce back year next year.

 

He had 3 DL stints last year for a head/shoulder injury, a groin injury, and a hamstring injury.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hudson is owed $5.5 million with a $2 million buyout next offseason.

 

That's kinda icky, but if you really like Headley, sure.

 

There are worse gambles than Hudson being a 2 win player for one year, but at his dollars plus the commitment to Headley, you'd start to run into a situation where you can't make the big gains you need to at SP and 1B without more payroll. Getting flexibility in a deal involving Marmol, Soto, Garza, Soriano, Zambrano, or Byrd would do the trick, though.

 

I'm sort of operating under the assumption that we won't be making any superstar acquisitions. If we do, I'll just consider it a nice surprise bonus.

 

Then it shouldn't really matter what 1 year contracts we take on then, right?

 

I'd still like to be efficient with the money we spend.