Stewart/Dewitt swap?

[CubColtPacer]

Davearm is right about one thing. Headley's BABIP is pretty highly unusual. There are 3702 career players with at least 1000 PA's listed on Fangraphs. Headley with a .339 has the 70th highest BABIP among those players. While in career LD percentage (since 2002) Headley is 338th out of 552 qualified players. That's a highly unusual combination. Does that mean it's automatically not sustainable? No. But it is something to be highly skeptical of even with the decent sample size already out there. And that of course includes the depressed numbers from Petco in there.

 

Now what Davearm has not brought up (at least I haven't seen it yet so correct me if I'm wrong) is that the key to a Headley acquisition is just not to translate his away numbers across the board, which I agree with him in their current form are completely unsustainable. Instead, People expect Headley to be able to develop his power when completely away from Petco which would make a normalization of his BABIP immaterial. I can understand the skepticism about that as well since Headley's power has been better on the road but not hugely so (.138 ISOP vs .107) but if the talks about a swing change are true than that could give reason for a huge breakout when getting out of that ballpark. But those signs of a breakout aren't present in his numbers so far, home or road.

[davearm2]

I'd love to hear Rob's take on this because while dave's thought process is overly simplistic, I get the feeling that many people in this thread are being the same way

Overly simplistic how?

[Guest]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

What do you think Headley's OPS will be if he's traded to the Cubs?

 

Just give me a number. Explain how you got there if you wish.

 

Is this the next moving target we're going to jump to? Okay, whatever.

 

Headley on the Cubs puts up a .975 OPS.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

 

It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted.

[XZero771679666304]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

 

No, no, no. You have it all wrong. What's happening is that the collective is trying to suppress the voice of dissension, regardless of the brilliance or validity of its argument, to maintain the groupthink status quo.

 

It's not that his posts are actually a hot mess of flawed, inflexible logic, poor premises and absolutely dichotomous thinking. No, it's not that. Certainly not.

[davearm2]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

 

It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted.

I don't believe the Cubs ought to put all their focus on developing from within while punting the next several years.

 

I just happen to think Pujols and Fielder are going to be huge busts. Extrapolating that to other free agents (or all free agents, as seems to be the case) is wrong.

 

Obviously I also don't think Headley is ever going to be the hitter some folks expect he would be, if he only got traded.

Edited December 5, 2011 by davearm2

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I added or subtracted hits as needed to hit the expected BABIP target (.310, .320, .334 etc), keeping ABs constant.

 

I adjusted 2bs and 3bs as needed to keep their percentage of total hits constant.

 

I did this separately to the home and road splits.

 

Then I added the adjusted home and road numbers together to compute the expected career line.

 

Were you adjusting based on your flawed concepts of "normal BABIP" and the ability of a park to affect BABIP?

[SABR Gamer]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

 

It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted.

 

I was using it as the inability to see the future, so being his inability to see that his plan (which is supposed to be about sacrificing now to go for the future) actually doesn't make us any better in the future unless we are extremely lucky, makes it short sighted.

 

Anyway, we agree on the things that are relevant, so no point to have a grammatical debate over minor details.

[davearm2]

 

I added or subtracted hits as needed to hit the expected BABIP target (.310, .320, .334 etc), keeping ABs constant.

 

I adjusted 2bs and 3bs as needed to keep their percentage of total hits constant.

 

I did this separately to the home and road splits.

 

Then I added the adjusted home and road numbers together to compute the expected career line.

 

Were you adjusting based on your flawed concepts of "normal BABIP" and the ability of a park to affect BABIP?

Applying the same BABIP to home and road numbers removes the park effect.

 

The BABIP targets were chosen for various reasons.

 

.300 is roughly the MLB average for non-pitchers.

.310 is what Fangraphs tells us is the top of the "normal" range.

.320 I chose arbitrarily.

.334 I got to by adding .140 to his career LD%, as is the convention for determining a "luck-neutral" BABIP.

[davearm2]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

 

It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted.

 

I was using it as the inability to see the future, so being his inability to see that his plan (which is supposed to be about sacrificing now to go for the future) actually doesn't make us any better in the future unless we are extremely lucky, makes it short sighted.

 

Anyway, we agree on the things that are relevant, so no point to have a grammatical debate over minor details.

My plan is not about sacrificing now to go for the future.

 

My plan is about not making poor decisions with longterm consequences out of desperation to return to respectability ASAP.

[CubColtPacer]

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

 

It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted.

 

I was using it as the inability to see the future, so being his inability to see that his plan (which is supposed to be about sacrificing now to go for the future) actually doesn't make us any better in the future unless we are extremely lucky, makes it short sighted.

 

Anyway, we agree on the things that are relevant, so no point to have a grammatical debate over minor details.

My plan is not about sacrificing now to go for the future.

 

My plan is about not making poor decisions with longterm consequences out of desperation to return to respectability ASAP.

 

Let's not get into that debate in this thread please. I'm not splitting the Headley discussion for now because the pursuit of Headley is connected to the original topic.

[Guest]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

[mookie]

Wow, everything thread. What is the big deal? Dave just doesn't want the two big sluggers on the market this off season. Who cares. We all have our reservations on those same two guys anyway.

[SouthSideRyan]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

 

No, it's not.

[davearm2]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

.188 + .140 = .328

[Guest]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

 

No, it's not.

bah. stupid math while trying to eat lunch. :)

[CubColtPacer]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

 

Isn't 18.8% +.140=.328? Besides, I thought the "standard" for correlating to LD to BABIP was .120 not .140.

 

For someone who can run the math (I can't at the moment) can you project what Headley's OPS would be if he managed to keep his .339 BABIP but his HR and double rate from the road was applied to his home numbers? I think that's about the highest we could reasonably expect without some sort of swing change (which still might be possible if the reports are true).

 

Headley with his .773 OPS last year had the 5th highest BABIP in baseball among players with 400 PA's or more.

[davearm2]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

 

Isn't 18.8% +.140=.328? Besides, I thought the "standard" for correlating to LD to BABIP was .120 not .140.

 

For someone who can run the math (I can't at the moment) can you project what Headley's OPS would be if he managed to keep his .339 BABIP but his HR and double rate from the road was applied to his home numbers? I think that's about the highest we could reasonably expect without some sort of swing change (which still might be possible if the reports are true).

 

Headley with his .773 OPS last year had the 5th highest BABIP in baseball among players with 400 PA's or more.

You might be surprised to hear that the correction you suggest isn't all that impactful.

 

As a percentage of all hits:

        	2B 	3B 	HR 	XBH
Home 	19.9%	2.0%	7.5%	29.4%
Away 	22.3%	1.3%	6.9%	30.5%

He basically has 1% more XBH on the road than at home.

 

His road OPS @ .339 BABIP is .744.

Edited December 5, 2011 by davearm2

[Guest]

btw - I think anyone arguing that Headley's road BABIP is due to innate skill is smoking some good stuff. There's no way that's predictive for him.

 

For me, the hope with Headley is in his talk of the swing adjustments he made to "optimize" for Petco. If he can readjust and add some more loft back in his swing he could be a very good player. It's a fairly big wish, though.

[davearm2]

btw - I think anyone arguing that Headley's road BABIP is due to innate skill is smoking some good stuff. There's no way that's predictive for him.

Especially when that skill apparently vanishes at home.

[sneakypower]

he had a .371 babip his last three years in the minors

[CubColtPacer]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

small math error on dave's part, too. the road expected babip number using his formula is .338.

 

Isn't 18.8% +.140=.328? Besides, I thought the "standard" for correlating to LD to BABIP was .120 not .140.

 

For someone who can run the math (I can't at the moment) can you project what Headley's OPS would be if he managed to keep his .339 BABIP but his HR and double rate from the road was applied to his home numbers? I think that's about the highest we could reasonably expect without some sort of swing change (which still might be possible if the reports are true).

 

Headley with his .773 OPS last year had the 5th highest BABIP in baseball among players with 400 PA's or more.

You might be surprised to hear that the correction you suggest isn't all that impactful.

 

As a percentage of all hits:

        	2B 	3B 	HR 	XBH
Home 	19.9%	2.0%	7.5%	29.4%
Away 	22.3%	1.3%	6.9%	30.5%

He basically has 1% more XBH on the road than at home.

 

His road OPS @ .339 BABIP is .744.

 

Oh, I knew it wasn't that much (although I was surprised when I saw his career numbers earlier in the day). Thanks for doing the math.

 

So basically for Headley we either have to hope for more than a .339 BABIP (which is kind of fanciful-it's more likely to go down at that level than up) or hope for an adjustment he makes that results in a higher ISOP.

[SouthSideRyan]

he had a .371 babip his last three years in the minors

 

I have to imagine his LD% was higher.

[Guest]

It's possible that he really is a .339 babip person. Here are some other high babip guys with at least 3000 PA's (roughly 5 yrs):

 

Ichiro: .351

Kemp: .352

Cabrera: .347

Holliday: .346

Mauer: .342

 

Obviously Ichiro is an outlier due to style and speed. Kemp is also fast, but hits right handed and swings hard, which hurts his times to first. But the other guys are able to sustain high babip's despite no particular speed with which to beat out grounders.

 

Now, those guys also represent some of the best hitters in the game. Whether Headley belongs in that same class is highly debateable.

 

But a .370+ babip would put Headley in the top 4 of all time. There's just no way.

[Guest]

he had a .371 babip his last three years in the minors

 

I have to imagine his LD% was higher.

And fielders are worse. I also think that includes time in the cal league and the PCL.