CONFIRMED: CUBS GET SOLER!!! 9yrs/30 mill

[treebird]

so is this how this is going to go?

 

12- some portion of 27.5 million (and absolutely in the minors all year)

13- some portion of 27.5 million (and almost certainly in the minors all year)

14- some portion of 27.5 million (and hopefully in the majors, but not on opening day)

15- some portion of 27.5 million (in the majors all year from now on)

16- third year of mlb service, cubs set salary, must be at least 80% of 2015 salary

17- first year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2016 salary

18- second year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2017 salary

19- third year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2018 salary

20- free agent

 

That's how I understand it, but honestly, my grasp of baseball contract structure is not too hot.

 

if this is the contract, i don't know why we're posting happy gifs.

 

the absolute best case scenario is that we pay 28 million dollars for two full seasons in the major leagues to a guy who is 21 and 22 in those seasons. and that the contract is completely frontloaded so we can pay him like 2M for his 23 and quickly escalating from there. that'd get us two or three seasons of good value (assuming he is good, of course). if the contract is backloaded, we're looking at basically no seasons of really good value unless he's a hall of famer and starts dropping 5+ war a year at age 23 (or sooner, i guess).

 

i'm certainly willing to change my mind on this, though. someone smart convince me.

 

EDIT in my original thing, i pushed his mlb debut in 14 back so i could give us another year of control, then i forgot to include it (which ssr caught on the last page). that obviously makes things moderately better, but not enormously so. it really, really is all about how the money is spread out.

Edited February 14, 2012 by treebird

[El Duderino]

michael phelps super saiyan, nice. haven't seen that in ages.

[UMFan83]

so is this how this is going to go?

 

12- some portion of 27.5 million (and absolutely in the minors all year)

13- some portion of 27.5 million (and almost certainly in the minors all year)

14- some portion of 27.5 million (and hopefully in the majors, but not on opening day)

15- some portion of 27.5 million (in the majors all year from now on)

16- third year of mlb service, cubs set salary, must be at least 80% of 2015 salary

17- first year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2016 salary

18- second year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2017 salary

19- third year arbitration, must be at least 80% of 2018 salary

20- free agent

 

Assuming he's not in the majors until after April 2014, he won't be a free agent until 2021. 2017 could possibly be the Cubs setting his salary, depending on whether he's a super 2(top 1/6 of service time for players with 2-3 years service time) or not. Gut instinct is that he won't be.

 

So ideally:

 

12 - 13M

13 - 9M

14 - 2.9M

15 - 2.6M

16 - 2.08M

17 - 2.5M (Just a sign of good faith, could be as low as 1.82M)

18 - arb 1

19 - arb 2

20 - arb 3

21 - FA

 

Prediction: he is going to be an absolute steal by 2015ish.

[jersey cubs fan]

if this is the contract, i don't know why we're posting happy gifs.

 

the absolute best case scenario is that we pay 28 million dollars for two full seasons in the major leagues to a guy who is 21 and 22 in those seasons. and that the contract is completely frontloaded so we can pay him like 2M for his 23 and quickly escalating from there. that'd get us two or three seasons of good value (assuming he is good, of course). if the contract is backloaded, we're looking at basically no seasons of really good value unless he's a hall of famer and starts dropping 5+ war a year at age 23 (or sooner, i guess).

 

i'm certainly willing to change my mind on this, though. someone smart convince me.

 

Understandable sentiment, but there would still be some wiggle room to get high value seasons. The key, however, is to acquire really good players, not necessarily good value/production contracts. If he's not a productive major leaguer it's a big bust of a deal, but if he's any good and they structured it in any sort of logical way, you should be able to be very happy by the end.

[Guest]

Have you guys heard of that Cuban Jorge Soler? I think the Cubs should go after him....what do you think?

I might be wrong here and I haven't really looked it up.. but I think it is spelled Solar

 

 

If it is Solar, then all of the baseball people, and news people for that matter, are spelling it wrong. I just did a search for Jorge Solar and got nothing baseball related. Got a ton when I spelled it Soler.

 

I can't tell if you're going along with the joke and doing more WSR shtick here or if you think he was serious.

[ctcf]

Well this should get fun really fast: http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/post/Kaplan-Cubs-Soler-do-not-have-deal-in-pl?blockID=650974&feedID=661&awid=8491509489535678227-914

[Rob]

Edit:

 

Apparently everybody else already covered the service time stuff.

Edited February 14, 2012 by Rob

[jersey cubs fan]

Prediction: he is going to be an absolute steal by 2015ish.

 

For that one season hopefully, but he'll have to do a hell of a lot to make up for the ovepays in earlier seasons. It's probably a mistake to even think about if/when he'll be steal. Just hope he can live up to the contract and justify the inevitable early arbitration raises.

 

I think ideally we'll be looking at a longterm deal being signed somewhere around 2017 locking up a quality player through his early 30's.

[ctcf]

From the Kapman article:

 

However, according to a highly placed source, talk of him already agreeing to a deal with the Cubs are not accurate and the reports from the Dominican Republic of a four-year deal for 27.5 million dollars with Chicago are ludicrous. The Cubs are expected to be insistent on a longer deal if he wants to sign with them but the dollars could fall into that range.

[SouthSideRyan]

If the 27.5M is equally distributed, we're looking at 5.5M in '16 and 4.8125M in '17, followed by the normal arb process.

 

He'll very likely be under team control through his age 29 season.

[davearm2]

Poor Kapman needs to read this thread re: the years.

[bukie]

If the dollars are correct, I think Kaplan just found his new pet hate project.

[ctcf]

Bruce chimes in:

 

Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112

Hearing that Soler to #Cubs a long way from being done. A good number of teams still have serious interest.

 

Can we burn van Dyck at the stake?

[SouthSideRyan]

You have to view this more as a signing bonus for a draft pick rather than a salary. It's obviously higher than any draft pick has gotten, but that's free agency.

[Guest]

Bruce chimes in:

 

Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112

Hearing that Soler to #Cubs a long way from being done. A good number of teams still have serious interest.

 

Can we burn van Dyck at the stake?

 

 

The van Dyck article very much read like he was just reporting on what came out the day before. I didn't really buy in until Goldstein said he bought it.

[Banedon]

http://i.imgur.com/JVr5k.gif

[SouthSideRyan]

From the Kapman article:

 

However, according to a highly placed source, talk of him already agreeing to a deal with the Cubs are not accurate and the reports from the Dominican Republic of a four-year deal for 27.5 million dollars with Chicago are ludicrous. The Cubs are expected to be insistent on a longer deal if he wants to sign with them but the dollars could fall into that range.

 

According to the Cubs, they don't want to get in trouble for agreeing to a contract prior to him being a free agent, and I'm a big bald doofus and I should be hit by a bus.

[ctcf]

Bruce chimes in:

 

Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112

Hearing that Soler to #Cubs a long way from being done. A good number of teams still have serious interest.

 

Can we burn van Dyck at the stake?

 

 

The van Dyck article very much read like he was just reporting on what came out the day before. I didn't really buy in until Goldstein said he bought it.

 

I'm kinda doubtful that article was correct. Heyman, Miles and Kapman all saying/acting like it was bogus.

[Guest]

You have to view this more as a signing bonus for a draft pick rather than a salary. It's obviously higher than any draft pick has gotten, but that's free agency.

 

And you can make as much of it as you want(that Soler agrees to, of course) an actual signing bonus, preventing your Samardzija issues with salary escalation.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

WHICH IS IT!?!? There's guys posting links saying it's not a done deal while there's other guys still talking about the numbers. Booooooo.

[UMFan83]

Lol Kap. It's a 4 year deal but the way I've understood it the Cubs will control him for like 8 years.

 

Sorry I don't buy this one bit. It sounds like Kap got fed info from someone in the Cubs who has to deny a deal because Soler can't be signed just yet. Silly Kap, the Cubs mouthpiece.

[ctcf]

Lol Kap. It's a 4 year deal but the way I've understood it the Cubs will control him for like 8 years.

 

Sorry I don't buy this one bit. It sounds like Kap got fed info from someone in the Cubs who has to deny a deal because Soler can't be signed just yet. Silly Kap, the Cubs mouthpiece.

 

What about Miles and Heyman?

[Guest]

Bruce chimes in:

 

Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112

Hearing that Soler to #Cubs a long way from being done. A good number of teams still have serious interest.

 

Can we burn van Dyck at the stake?

 

 

The van Dyck article very much read like he was just reporting on what came out the day before. I didn't really buy in until Goldstein said he bought it.

 

I'm kinda doubtful that article was correct. Heyman, Miles and Kapman all saying/acting like it was bogus.

 

The thing is the article doesn't really say anything.

 

It says "reports are" and crap like that. Those reports were the stuff we heard on Sunday, IMO. He didn't even attribute it to a "source."

 

And all he said was they were "expected" to sign him.

[Derwood]

http://emotibot.net/pix/1817.gif

[ctcf]

Bruce chimes in:

 

Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112

Hearing that Soler to #Cubs a long way from being done. A good number of teams still have serious interest.

 

Can we burn van Dyck at the stake?

 

 

The van Dyck article very much read like he was just reporting on what came out the day before. I didn't really buy in until Goldstein said he bought it.

 

I'm kinda doubtful that article was correct. Heyman, Miles and Kapman all saying/acting like it was bogus.

 

The thing is the article doesn't really say anything.

 

It says "reports are" and crap like that. Those reports were the stuff we heard on Sunday, IMO. He didn't even attribute it to a "source."

 

And all he said was they were "expected" to sign him.

 

Fair enough.

 

Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein

Never said deal was done, just believe the rumors. RT @AMBROSEts: @Kevin_Goldstein reports are that soler isnt going to cubs?