BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[sneakypower]

#3, behind Singleton and (lol) Matt Adams

[sneakypower]

fwiw, i was looking through Scouting Book's top 525 prospects list, just for the hell of it, and while i admire their ambition there are some interesting results

 

Cubs who made it:

 

23. Brett Jackson

37. Anthony Rizzo

57. Matt Szczur

69. Javier Baez

117. Trey McNutt

125. Josh Vitters

149. Welington Castillo

195. Gerardo Concepcion

208. Dillon Maples

232. Rafael Dolis

261. Junior Lake

279. Logan Watkins

300. Dan Vogelbach

329. Robinson Lopez

340. Casey Weathers

351. Chris Carpenter

359. Juan Yasser Serrano

360. Jay Jackson

361. Michael Burgess

362. Hayden Simpson

363. Dae-Eun Rhee

411. Adrian Cardenas

 

others of particular relevance:

 

40. Hak-Ju Lee

49. Chris Archer

89. Jorge Soler

114. Yoenis Cespedes

213. DJ LeMahieu

264. Russ Canzler

326. Jose Ceda

381. Max Ramirez

456. Ryan Flaherty

[davell]

In ASK BA, Callis said he'd slot Concepcion in at 19 on his Cubs top 30. Mentioned one scout said if all went right, he may could have a Randy Wolf type career.

[Cubswin11]

On Baez, I know his bat will be a factor in determining where he moves to, but out of 2B, 3B, LF/RF what is the most likely position he gets tried out at first when he moves off of SS? Since the consensus seems to be it's a matter of when, not if he moves off of SS.

[davell]

My guess would be 3B.

[Rob]

If the rumors are true and we've signed Soler, I think he has to immediately jump to #1 on my list. And I don't see how anybody could possibly rank him lower than #4.

[javy knows my name]

In ASK BA, Callis said he'd slot Concepcion in at 19 on his Cubs top 30. Mentioned one scout said if all went right, he may could have a Randy Wolf type career.

 

I'll bet he didn't say exactly this. Where is that from? Mid-Atlantic?

[Guest]

john (wash): Do you think vogelbach could be ranked highly in the future (no prob at all with him being nowhere near top whatever lists at this point) or will his weight and positional limitation likely keep his stock forever depressed by prognosticators (or at least just you)?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Nobody is going to care about the weight if he mashes. The problem is, like any 1B prospect, he HAS to mash, or he's just not much of a prospect.

Mike (Chicago): Is it likely (more than 50%) that Javier Baez can stay at shortstop, or is he a corner guy when (if?) he makes the show?

 

Kevin Goldstein: It's way less than 50%. Maybe 10% at best. He's a 3B, maybe 2B in the end.

[Guest]

In ASK BA, Callis said he'd slot Concepcion in at 19 on his Cubs top 30. Mentioned one scout said if all went right, he may could have a Randy Wolf type career.

 

I'll bet he didn't say exactly this. Where is that from? Mid-Atlantic?

 

Hehe.

 

Here's the full response by Jim.

 

Where would Cuban lefthander Gerardo Concepcion fit onto a revised Cubs prospect list? Is he worthy of the overall Top 100 Prospects list?

 

Matt Cummings

West Des Moines, Iowa

 

Though the Cubs gave Concepcion a $7 million major league contract, he projects more as a No. 4 starter than as a front-of-the-rotation option. The 19-year-old stands out more with his advanced feel for pitching than he does for his pure stuff. His fastball ranges from 86-92 mph and his curveball ranges from inconsistent to solid. "If everything works out," one scout said, "maybe he becomes Randy Wolf."

 

In the BA Grade system we introduced in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, Concepcion merits a 50/High. I'd put him at No. 19 on a revised Cubs Top 30, between outfielders Reggie Golden and Jae-Hoon Ha, and he's not a Top 100-caliber prospect.

[davell]

Given the bonus, I'm going to have Concepcion somewhere inside my top 10. Surely the Cubs see something here, that they project more of an upside than a 4. Of course, if he's really, really polished and he's a "safe" type guy that's going to be a solid major leaguer, in their eyes, I guess I still see why they'd give out a huge bonus. But, the scouting things we've heard, would make me think he at least has more upside possibilites than what he's been given credit for.

[toonsterwu]

If the rumors are true and we've signed Soler, I think he has to immediately jump to #1 on my list. And I don't see how anybody could possibly rank him lower than #4.

 

Tough for me to rank him 1 ... but yeah, barring some scouting reports that suggest otherwise, I'd have a tough time ranking him outside of the top 5.

[toonsterwu]

On Baez, I know his bat will be a factor in determining where he moves to, but out of 2B, 3B, LF/RF what is the most likely position he gets tried out at first when he moves off of SS? Since the consensus seems to be it's a matter of when, not if he moves off of SS.

 

Probably third, which is reflective as much on him as it is reflective upon the organization's potential need there. An interesting case to see what the organization does may be to see what the Red Sox do with Xander Boegaerts, a fairly similar player.

[toonsterwu]

Goldstein's top 101 has Brett at 44, Baez at 66, and Rizzo at 75. Cespedes would be 20 and Soler 39.

 

I don't understand Jackson being so far ahead of Rizzo at all.

 

@Kevin_Goldstein 1B prospect rule; not a Szczur fan. RT @SteveJB54: @Kevin_Goldstein Why so low on Rizzo? How far off the list would Szczur be?

 

Also:

 

@Kevin_Goldstein Again, not at all. RT @NickKappel: @Kevin_Goldstein Was Matt Szczur close to making top 101?

 

@Kevin_Goldstein Not ready yet. RT @keithsmw: @Kevin_Goldstein If you're the Cubs do you let Jackson spend a full season in Iowa or bring him up now?

 

@Kevin_Goldstein Baez not a SS in majors. RT @cubsncards: @Kevin_Goldstein If Baez starts at SS for the Cubs does that put Starlin at 2b or on another team?

The scouts seem really down on Baez's ability to handle short.

What's the 1B prospect rule? Just that he doesn't value 1B prospects as much as other position prospects because there are usually an abundance of them available on the FA market that can be slightly above replacement level?

 

And I agree on the Baez at SS thing. I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, even say that he might stay there it's always he's def moving off that position. I know his bat will be a factor in determining where he moves to, but out of 2B, 3B, LF/RF what is the most likely position he gets tried out at first when he moves off of SS?

 

I also think it's worth noting he has Rizzo as his #2 rated 1B, only 2 spots behind Singleton of the Astros and Baez is only rated one spot behind HJ Lee.

 

Pretty much. I think the "1st base prospect rule" is that, for some, prospects at first base simply have to mash at a significantly higher rate than players at other positions to justify high rankings for them. This isn't the case with everyone, but basically it speaks to the value of the player. Rizzo this low does mildly surprise me, but looking at his list, I don't have a huge problem with it.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

In ASK BA, Callis said he'd slot Concepcion in at 19 on his Cubs top 30. Mentioned one scout said if all went right, he may could have a Randy Wolf type career.

 

When I read that young Concepcion throws a little across his body I instantly jumped to THE Ted Lilly.

[craig]

...Here's the full response by Jim.

 

..The 19-year-old stands out more with his advanced feel for pitching than he does for his pure stuff. His fastball ranges from 86-92 mph and his curveball ranges from inconsistent to solid. "If everything works out," one scout said, "maybe he becomes Randy Wolf."...

 

I read that as pretty weak view, in part because I'm thinking of Randy Wolf lately. But when scouts use comps, you often don't know what's really in their heads. A scouting comp is sometimes to the recent view on a guy, but often it's to a guy when he was a rising prospect and they were scouting him and evaluating him.

 

Randy Wolf was a 2nd round pick who had won over 50 games by the time he turned 26. His ERA went from 4.36 to 3.70 to 3.20 at ages 23-24-25, with ERA+'s of 108 - 116 - 121. He had very strong K-BB ratios during those early years. And he won 16 games the following season. If Concepcion posts ERA+'s of 116 and 121 when he's 24 and 25, we won't be questioning this signing one little bit. But, young pitchers often have arm issues sooner or later, and Wolf has pitched most of his career without the arm he had when he was 24. The scout may be thinking of the young polished Wolf, who was never overpowering but had a good arm, good stuff, and good control to succeed like that.

 

But, I'm hoping that Concepcion projects to throw harder more consistently and have sharper stuff than Callis is expecting.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I read that as pretty weak view, in part because I'm thinking of Randy Wolf lately. But when scouts use comps, you often don't know what's really in their heads. A scouting comp is sometimes to the recent view on a guy, but often it's to a guy when he was a rising prospect and they were scouting him and evaluating him.

 

Randy Wolf was a 2nd round pick who had won over 50 games by the time he turned 26. His ERA went from 4.36 to 3.70 to 3.20 at ages 23-24-25, with ERA+'s of 108 - 116 - 121. He had very strong K-BB ratios during those early years. And he won 16 games the following season. If Concepcion posts ERA+'s of 116 and 121 when he's 24 and 25, we won't be questioning this signing one little bit. But, young pitchers often have arm issues sooner or later, and Wolf has pitched most of his career without the arm he had when he was 24. The scout may be thinking of the young polished Wolf, who was never overpowering but had a good arm, good stuff, and good control to succeed like that.

But, I'm hoping that Concepcion projects to throw harder more consistently and have sharper stuff than Callis is expecting.

 

A few things work in his favor here...he's taller than Wolf, and I'd guess the better athlete...then his youth...then the fact that he'll get pro level coaching/training.

 

I probably will not throw him into my top 10 (coming out eventually!), but I'm very optimistic on Concepcion. Take that with a grain of salt because I'm optimistic about Mark Sanchez next season.

[Guest]

BA's Top 100 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html

 

32 Brett Jackson of, Cubs Age: 23. ETA: 2012.

Steadily moving up the charts (38th on last year's Top 100) like a Foo Fighters song.

 

47 Anthony Rizzo 1b, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2012.

No prospect made as good a ballpark move as Rizzo's in going from Petco to Wrigley.

 

61 Javier Baez ss, Cubs Age: 19. ETA: 2014.

Bat speed, Florida high school shortstop background . . . let the Gary Sheffield comparisons begin.

 

64 Matt Szczur of, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2013.

Exciting high-risk, high-reward talent who should take off with football in his rearview mirror.

 

And on unsigned talent (premium content):

 

Soler Vs. Cespedes

 

Yoenis Cespedes would have made fine fodder for this column had he not agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract with the Athletics shortly before we went to press. After his signing, we inserted him at No. 14 on the Top 100 and fellow Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler became the prize of the international market.

 

Soler, who will play this season at age 20, is six years younger than Cespedes and thus has less of a track record. In terms of tools, righthanded power is the calling card for both. There are questions as to how much they'll hit for average, but they're both plus runners underway and have strong arms.

 

Soler will command a contract in the same neighborhood of Cespedes, though I'm leery of the fact that Cuban defectors' performance rarely lives up to the hype (latest example: Aroldis Chapman). I'll be conservative with Soler and rank him at No. 43, sandwiched between third basemen Nolan Arenado (Rockies) and Mike Olt (Rangers).

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2613003.html

 

The Cubs 4 top 100 prospects is behind 4 teams with 6 and 2 with 5.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soler Vs. Cespedes

In terms of tools, righthanded power is the calling card for both.

 

Kind of strange that they throw in the righthanded qualifier in there in terms of tools. If they are right handed and have some power you can assume that power comes from the right side, can't you?

[SouthSideRyan]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2613003.html

 

The Cubs 4 top 100 prospects is behind 4 teams with 6 and 2 with 5.

 

I assume this isn't including the 25 Red Sox prospects ahead of our 5th.

[TruffleShuffle]

i thought this was interesting... kevin goldstein from BP polled a number of GMs about what kind of contract they would offer the big 3 prospects (m. moore, m. trout, b. harper) if they were free agents right now.

 

Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

Average offer: Eight years, $113 million

Best offer: Eight years, $150 million

 

 

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Average offer: Eight years, $102 million

Best offer: Eight years, $120 million

 

 

Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Average offer: Six years, $83 million

Best offer: Eight years, $144 million