BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[jersey cubs fan]

but early success by young players (for their league) shines big league potential more often than not.

 

I don't agree with that at all. Success at the lowest minor league levels doesn't tell you much of anything (although it's better than a lack of success).

[jumbo]

but early success by young players (for their league) shines big league potential more often than not.

 

I don't agree with that at all. Success at the lowest minor league levels doesn't tell you much of anything (although it's better than a lack of success).

 

You misunderstood. The point is that he was young relative to his competition. This is as important as any other factor in evaluating a prospect.

[Rob]

Age relative to league is extremely important.

[davell]

Baseball Instinct did their top 360 a while ago and figured I might as well post the Cubs, because it is interesting. 290-Ronald Torreyes, 262-Dan Vogelbach, 226- Jeimer Candelario, 216- Ben Wells, 185-Josh Vitters, 180- Trey McNutt, 135-Dillon Maples, 84-Junior Lake!!!!!!!!!!, 82-Matt Szczur, 61-Brett Jackson, 55+Javier Baez, 30- Anthony Rizzo.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Baseball Instinct did their top 360 a while ago and figured I might as well post the Cubs, because it is interesting. 290-Ronald Torreyes, 262-Dan Vogelbach, 226- Jeimer Candelario, 216- Ben Wells, 185-Josh Vitters, 180- Trey McNutt, 135-Dillon Maples, 84-Junior Lake!!!!!!!!!!, 82-Matt Szczur, 61-Brett Jackson, 55+Javier Baez, 30- Anthony Rizzo.

 

Very cool/random to see some Junior Lake love. Saw him in the AFL and he looks alot like Castro at the plate (though he's got more of a Soriano build/body). Same batting stance and everything as Castro it seems. I did not dislike the swing, but I'm no expert. I thought he generated good bat speed, but when he set in the batters box the barrel of the bat was almost at his shoulders and sometimes behind it. He trades batting average and contact for power and K's because that little hitch lengthens his swing path (my guess). Castro has a little more weight on him and way better hands at the plate anyway...

 

If Lake got any hype at all he would remind a whole lot of people physically of a young Soriano with arguably better (though still raw) swing mechanics. That said, he's still as much a bust candidate as he is a breakout one. I am fairly optimistic one between him or Vitters will break out "surprisingly."

[craig]

I'm not a huge Lake fan, I've got him at #14 on my list.

 

Junior Lake: As with Vitters, future depends heavily on HR output. His awful K/BB profile show tons of holes, and promise a future with low average and low IsoD. At 25 HR, that could add enough hits and slugging to float an anti-awful BA and to perhaps offset the bad K’s and low walks and low OBP. Seems unsuited for the alleged “culture shift” that Hoyer supposedly wants, given his reputation as a “play the wrong way” slacker, non-hustler, and ignore-coaches guy. But perhaps a new regime will institute some changes at the minor-league level that will help him. The other big question is his position, obviously he can’t play SS. But he's young. If he could reduce his K-rate somewhat, increase his walk rate somewhat, and boost his HR rate somewhat, all improvements that could happen for such a young player, you could end up with a useful offensive player.

[toonsterwu]

Baseball Instinct did their top 360 a while ago and figured I might as well post the Cubs, because it is interesting. 290-Ronald Torreyes, 262-Dan Vogelbach, 226- Jeimer Candelario, 216- Ben Wells, 185-Josh Vitters, 180- Trey McNutt, 135-Dillon Maples, 84-Junior Lake!!!!!!!!!!, 82-Matt Szczur, 61-Brett Jackson, 55+Javier Baez, 30- Anthony Rizzo.

 

Very cool/random to see some Junior Lake love. Saw him in the AFL and he looks alot like Castro at the plate (though he's got more of a Soriano build/body). Same batting stance and everything as Castro it seems. I did not dislike the swing, but I'm no expert. I thought he generated good bat speed, but when he set in the batters box the barrel of the bat was almost at his shoulders and sometimes behind it. He trades batting average and contact for power and K's because that little hitch lengthens his swing path (my guess). Castro has a little more weight on him and way better hands at the plate anyway...

 

If Lake got any hype at all he would remind a whole lot of people physically of a young Soriano with arguably better (though still raw) swing mechanics. That said, he's still as much a bust candidate as he is a breakout one. I am fairly optimistic one between him or Vitters will break out "surprisingly."

 

The issue with Lake is that he just is ... for lack of a better term ... too swing happy. When he connects, he looks good. The swing isn't that choppy, the bat speed is good. Problem is, he just chases after way too many pitches. Saw him a couple times this year, and he was digging at some awful, awful pitches at times. He doesn't have the contact ability to get away with that.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

 

The issue with Lake is that he just is ... for lack of a better term ... too swing happy. When he connects, he looks good. The swing isn't that choppy, the bat speed is good. Problem is, he just chases after way too many pitches. Saw him a couple times this year, and he was digging at some awful, awful pitches at times. He doesn't have the contact ability to get away with that.

 

Meh an age old problem for good and bad players alike...He needs to tighten up his strike zone for sure, but if guys like Soriano and Francouer can find careers in the big leagues despite a horrendous inability to identify and not swing at breaking pitches then I think Lake has a shot. I honestly thought he'd do worse than he did at AA. The fact that he didn't embarrass himself at AA this year at 21 (and the fact that the Cubs let him get there) is pretty impressive to me, even if he didn't kick ass and take names at the level.

 

Personally, I like the things he can do as much, if not more, than I care about the things he can't do. A couple of the things he can't do (play D consistently well) can be coached up anyway...Undoubtedly it'd be great if he could gain some patience at the plate, and he's still young enough where the window might be open...That said,it will be interesting to see how the Cubs the Cubs develop him...Do they help him hone what he can do (hit for some pop and BA, steal bases well, help make him more consistent and focused on D - 2B? 3B? LF?) or do they spend more of the time working on the skills further away and harder to break through with (plate discipline)?

[Guest]

Jonathan Mayo's top 20 Cubs prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=chc

 

1. Anthony Rizzo

2. Brett Jackson

3. Javier Baez

4. Matt Szczur

5. Chris Carpenter (!)

6. Dillon Maples

7. Trey McNutt

8. Rafael Dolis

9. Robert Whitenack

10. Reggie Golden

11. Junior Lake

12. Josh Vitters

13. Ronald Torreyes

14. Ben Wells

15. Dan Vogelbach

16. Jeimer Candelario

17. Gioskar Amaya

18. Marco Hernandez

19. Dave Sappelt

20. Pin-Chieh Chen

 

No Ha or Rhee.

[jersey cubs fan]

he's claiming Sczur was a likely 2nd round pick in the NFL? I doubt that very much.

[toonsterwu]

probably not 2nd, although you never know, but there was talk that Szczur was a safe bet to go in the 3rd/4th. This of course, assumed that he timed well enough (he was never considered to have elite speed in football, so I never really knew why people thought he had elite speed in baseball at first), say, in the 4.4 range, and had good agility drills, amongst other things. But he would've been a safe slot receiver, on paper, in the modern NFL, a very useful weapon, particularly if you have a seam TE or a take the top off guy.

[jersey cubs fan]

or a take the top off guy.

 

What is a take the top off guy?

 

Or do I not want to know?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

4th round seemed to be the popular opinion as I recall.

[toonsterwu]

or a take the top off guy.

 

What is a take the top off guy?

 

Or do I not want to know?

 

Sorry, should've just said a deep threat. I don't know why I said take the top off, just some language that I picked up talking to football folks.

[CubColtPacer]

Is it bad that I'd take 11 through 18 over 5 through 10? I guess I'm just much more intrigued by the position prospects than the pitchers in the system right now. Several guys between 10-20 I think could be in the top 10 in a future year.

[Guest]

Yeah, 4th rounder sounds far more accurate. Of course that was pre-combine, etc.

[toonsterwu]

Is it bad that I'd take 11 through 18 over 5 through 10? I guess I'm just much more intrigued by the position prospects than the pitchers in the system right now. Several guys between 10-20 I think could be in the top 10 in a future year.

 

No. Heck, I've said I wouldn't be surprised if some guys in my current 50-70 range end up better than some guys in our top 10. It's that ... type of a system.

[Guest]

Is it bad that I'd take 11 through 18 over 5 through 10? I guess I'm just much more intrigued by the position prospects than the pitchers in the system right now. Several guys between 10-20 I think could be in the top 10 in a future year.

 

I agree too.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Is it bad that I'd take 11 through 18 over 5 through 10? I guess I'm just much more intrigued by the position prospects than the pitchers in the system right now. Several guys between 10-20 I think could be in the top 10 in a future year.

 

+1

 

The only upper level minor league SP prospect I have any long term interest in is McNutt, who is a boom or bust type right now. 11-18 is where the upside/hope is at in this system.

 

As far as Chris Carpenter at 5...His arm is electric so I really hope he gets it together as a reliever. Guy could be filthy out of the bullpen. There was a span in the mid-2000's where a 'pen arm with his potential would get alot of love, but no one grades relievers that high anymore. If he's good I can see names like Scott Williamson and Grant Balfour...

[Guest]

I disagree with Dolis being rated below Carpenter.

 

ETA: Amongst many qualms with the list.

[bukie]

ESPN's top 100 by Keith Law (Insider)

 

Notables:

1. Mike Trout, LAA

2. Bryce Harper, WAS

3. Matt Moore, TB

4. Manny Machado, BAL

5. Shelby Miller, STL

36. Anthony Rizzo, CHC

89. Brett Jackson, CHC

95. Javier Baez, CHC

 

EDIT: He didn't rank Darvish or the Cubans.

[sneakypower]

Jackson at 89 is lunacy, but that's par for the course with Law, i guess

[bukie]

Also, Law's Cubs top 10:

 

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (36)

2. Brett Jackson, OF (89)

3. Javier Baez, SS (95)

4. Trey McNutt, RHP

5. Zach Cates, RHP

6. Welington Castillo, C

7. Dillon Maples, RHP

8. Josh Vitters, 3B

9. Reggie Golden, OF

10. Matt Szczur, CF

[jersey cubs fan]

Also, Law's Cubs top 10:

 

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (36)

2. Brett Jackson, OF (89)

3. Javier Baez, SS (95)

4. Trey McNutt, RHP

5. Zach Cates, RHP

6. Welington Castillo, C

7. Dillon Maples, RHP

8. Josh Vitters, 3B

9. Reggie Golden, OF

10. Matt Szczur, CF

 

No wonder he thinks this organization is so bad if he has a guy he despises at 10.

[sneakypower]

i'll give him credit for the Cates inclusion; he's another guy people should like more than they seem to

 

man, i can only imagine how low he'd have ranked our system without all the offseason additions we've made (Rizzo, Cates, Torreyes, Concepcion, Sappelt, Cardenas)