BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[toonsterwu]

I'm still trying to figure out how Dolis, who's never really been anything special in the minors seems to have made every top 10 list for the past few years yet Beliveau doesn't even register despite the fact that he's had great numbers at every stop he's made. They're both the same age and Beliveau's a lefty, which tends to give guys a leg up.

 

Well, I think, and this might not be fair, but I think the general perception is that with only an average fastball (to go with his plus breaking ball), Beliveau is viewed more as a specialist/fringe late inning arm, whereas Dolis is viewed as a guy with power late inning potential. I tend to like Dolis higher than Beliveau for that reason (in rankings, not how I expect them to perform), but I don't love Dolis in the top 10, which he seems to be finding a spot in for many lists. I guess it comes down to whether or not you buy what Callis was somewhat selling - that Dolis' lack of K's had a lot to do with working on locating his pitches than inconsistency.

[toonsterwu]

I'm curious, with most of the major lists out, who people think were under-rated, over-rated, under-hyped, over-hyped, under-appreciated (if any ... it is one of those years where the clump of guys after the top tier might make it hard to really find guys that were under or over) either relative to the lists, or overall?

 

Since I'm asking, I'll offer some thoughts -

 

- still don't love the ranking of Dolis so high by most places.

 

- more than Dolis, though, still bothered by the Zych rankings. Big time fastball and a below average slider? Sure, he can turn it around, but is that top 20 material when there are plenty of pen arms that hold enough intrigue?

 

- still don't love Junior Lake as a rock solid top 10 guy for the two main pubs, but I guess I understand why they did.

 

Let's see, some guys I think fall under some sort of under- category (as I type this, I realize it is more under-appreciated than under-hyped or under-rated)

 

C - Steve Clevenger - Still think he's somewhat under ... something. Under-appreciated perhaps. Not that I expect him to be a star, or that I even expect that he will be a starter, but upper level catcher who is at least solid defensively and makes decent contact? Just doesn't sound that bad to me.

 

1st/OF - Rebel Ridling - Season was bookended by 2 excellent months. He's not as good as he was in those months, but if he's better than his 3 down months, there's a decent useful asset there. Put this as ... under-appreciated as well.

 

2nd/3rd - Matt Cerda. Let's see ... undersized catcher, minimal power, strong eye. Grittiness personified! Bigger issue is that he isn't good at 2nd, and for the life of me, I still don't understand why he can't be passable.

 

SS - Carlos Penalver. I guess here's a case where a guy might be a bit under-hyped/under-rated? All reports suggest a strong glove and some offensive potential, making him, tools wise, arguably the 2nd most intriguing Cubs shortstop prospect that's viewed as having a decent shot to stick there.

 

3rd - Marquez Smith. He's going to have to fight for time as well, probably, but if he's in better shape (IIRC, poor shape 2 years ago in spring?), I'm still curious if he could get some OF time to become a super-util type of guy. Some pop, decent approach.

 

3rd/OF/1st - Dustin Geiger. There's some pop, and he doesn't strike out an obscene amount. He's going to have to fight hard to hang on, as there's going to be a surge of incoming young talent sooner than later, but there's some stuff to work with here. Of course, may be better off at 1st or corner OF.

 

CIF/COF - Greg Rohan. There's no reason to be THAT intrigued, considering his age, but I'll be curious if the discipline holds in the higher levels and what type of power he might show. Occasionally has me wondering if he could be a Scott Spiezio util type.

 

P - Luis Liria. Here's a 2nd case where I think a guy could be somewhat under-the-radar, under-rated, under-hyped, including by myself (since I slid him off the back of my top 30 post-trades). He's got an electric fastball and 2 solid, albeit inconsistent, secondary offerings that flash some more potential. There are some more touted/talked about arms that are only working on their 2nd pitches.

 

P - Blake Parker. I don't think he's anything great, but he rebounded and feels like he could have a few decent years in MR, maybe an occasional year where he's a solid setup guy. Somewhat feel like he's a bit lost in the mix.

 

Anyhow, trying to spur some discussion.

[JeffH]

He's not at all underrated by you, toonster, but I think Dallas Beeler is too often overlooked.

[toonsterwu]

He's not at all underrated by you, toonster, but I think Dallas Beeler is too often overlooked.

 

I somewhat agree with this, but didn't BA have Beeler in it's top 15? That said, BP/Sickels/Hulet, off the top, didn't rank him.

[davell]

I guess some of the guys I could see making jumps from now until this time next year that I don't have in, or necessarily, even near my own top 30 would be Micah Gibbs. Since he's supposedly excellent behind the dish, if he hits .260ish and starts to show average pop(10 homer type) then he could become a solid asset. Willson Contreras hasn't done a whole lot yet, but he's been underaged for his levels, so if his swing gets a little loft, I could see him developing into the power hitting corner guy we thought he'd become when we gave him a sizable bonus. Oliver Zapata has a Kirby Puckett body, but he was the first of his group to actually receive a promotion, so maybe that means something? He's shown decent power, decent speed, and advanced plate discipline. I could conceivably see him having a solid year across the board for Peoria and showing up on our radar. While Candelario was the standout and Penalver is at least in everyone's peripherals, Jeffrey Baez also was excellent last year. Has solid pop, excellent speed, and solid discipline as well, I could see him skyrocket with a solid season in Arizona, which I kind of expect. Although obviously hard to project guys coming over. AZPhil liked what he saw though. While it appears as if Michael Burgess is now considered a AAAA slugger, it's not too late at all for that to change. My guess is he's one of the guys at our workout camp and if he's in shape, things could change for him.

[davell]

On my cell, so I'll list pitching separately. Ryan Searle is a decent bet to put things together. In fact, I could see him showing us the same, minus a couple MPH, as what we're hoping out of Ben Wells. He's had about as good a showing this offseason as anyone in our system, so a breakthrough is a solid possibility here. Robinson Lopez went from being a top 10 guy for me, to outside my top 30 in one season. But, in his defense, he battled injuries all season and never really pitched healthy. He's still very young and while his secondary stuff needs work, he's still my favorite of the "live arm" group we can dream on. Yao-Lin Wang is smallish and has a violent delivery, but looked the part of a back end of the pen guy last year. This year, in full season ball, we'll start to see if he may have the stamina to continue in a starting role. If he holds up, he's got as good of stuff as anyone,short of Maples, in our lower levels. I'll throw Brian Smith out there, since we're short on interesting pitchers, in my opinion. Raw, but projectable, could add some weight and amp his fastball from high 80's into lower 90's and with decent control, as a lefty, could establish himself, especially in the lower levels.

[TruffleShuffle]

I just ordered the BA prospect handbook. I have every issue going back to the first one in 2001. On the cover of that one is our old friend Corey Patterson. Corey was #1 on two of the editors' lists; the third list rated him #3 behind josh hamilton and ben sheets. Corey did have a better career than 2 of their "elite eight" - ryan anderson (the space needle) and sean burroughs. He hasn't quite been as good as josh beckett, sheets, hamilton or sabathia.

 

Other top 50 prospects ranked behind Corey - ichiro, oswalt, Adam Dunn, soriano, pujols, Rollins, peavy, miggy cabrera and carl

 

Kudos to Corey for posting a better WAR than drew henson, jr house and joe borchard.

[Little Slide Rooter]

MLB.com has started it's top 10 prospects by positon thing they do with a new position each day. Javier Baez ranked 8th for shortstops. Hak Ju Lee was 5th. So far, they've only goten through SS, RHP and LHP. Unsurprisingly, we didn't have anyone in either pitching department.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120117&content_id=26374282&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=chc

[illiniguy]

Mayo had two cubs 1B in his top ten.

Rizzo at 1

Dan Fielder at 10

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Mayo had two cubs 1B in his top ten.

Rizzo at 1

Dan Fielder at 10

 

Can't remember but isn't Vogelbach around 240 maybe even 230 now?

[jumbo]

Mayo had two cubs 1B in his top ten.

Rizzo at 1

Dan Fielder at 10

 

Can't remember but isn't Vogelbach around 240 maybe even 230 now?

 

Someone said that he's trimming down, but that could have been related to his drop from 280-240 pre-draft. His twitter account says "going for a run" frequently.

It also says "God, family, friends, baseball" or something like that

[Brett]

So, have folks given up hope for Jin-Young Kim (used to be spelled Jin-Yeong Kim, but whateves)? Didn't get much time last year, turns 20 in April, didn't really leave a strong impression on anyone, apparently, and didn't put up great numbers in Boise. Obviously there was a lot of hope there after his big bonus.

[Guest]

So, have folks given up hope for Jin-Young Kim (used to be spelled Jin-Yeong Kim, but whateves)? Didn't get much time last year, turns 20 in April, didn't really leave a strong impression on anyone, apparently, and didn't put up great numbers in Boise. Obviously there was a lot of hope there after his big bonus.

 

I still have hopes for him. He did bounce back well at Mesa after being demoted. That said, Kim isn't in my top 30.

 

I'd never give up hope after 1 season for someone who was highly thought of unless there's a drop off in stuff.

[Guest]

Mayo has BJax as the 5th best OF prospect in baseball

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120120&content_id=26407614&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_chc&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

5. Brett Jackson, Cubs: It's hard to imagine a 20-20 player being undervalued, but because none of Jackson's individual tools grade out as plus, he might fit that bill. Jackson hit better after he was promoted to Triple-A in 2011 -- always a good sign. His strikeout rate concerns some, but he also draws walks and his power-speed combination should play just fine at the highest level. Jackson can play all three outfield spots, something that should allow him to reach Chicago at some point in 2012.

 

 

So, as of now, we have the 1st and 10th best 1B prospects, the 8th best SS prospect (a guy who could easily skyrocket up those charts once he actually plays), and the 5th best OF prospect (according to Mayo/MLB.com, that is).

Edited January 23, 2012 by David

[davell]

Plus guys like Szczur, who had to be close to making the OF list. And the ability to go sign Soler, who'd be higher than Brett AND guys like Hernandez, Candelario, and Torreyes, who could all conceivably make these types of lists next year. We just really, really, really need to find some pitching. Both from dealing Garza and in the draft, early and often.

[jersey cubs fan]

Plus guys like Szczur, who had to be close to making the OF list. And the ability to go sign Soler, who'd be higher than Brett AND guys like Hernandez, Candelario, and Torreyes, who could all conceivably make these types of lists next year. We just really, really, really need to find some pitching. Both from dealing Garza and in the draft, early and often.

 

You think Szcur had to be close to making the top 10 OF list? I know opinions vary on the guy but I didn't think there were even those who were high on him that would list him up there.

[CubColtPacer]

Plus guys like Szczur, who had to be close to making the OF list. And the ability to go sign Soler, who'd be higher than Brett AND guys like Hernandez, Candelario, and Torreyes, who could all conceivably make these types of lists next year. We just really, really, really need to find some pitching. Both from dealing Garza and in the draft, early and often.

 

You think Szcur had to be close to making the top 10 OF list? I know opinions vary on the guy but I didn't think there were even those who were high on him that would list him up there.

 

Last year, BA had only 10 OF listed in the top 100 prospects (12 if you count guys like Alonso who were listed as 1B/OF). Sczcur is supposed to be in their top 100 list this year. So Sczcur could very well be close or on some top 10 lists as an OF, but that doesn't necessarily say much about him being an elite prospect.

[davell]

Yeah, Szczur is going to make BA's top 100, so he's probably close anyway. That said, he's probably a guy that teams could either love or hate, so while top 100 lists are purely for fun, his true value lies with whoever we're talking to. In a way, he reminds me of Anthony Gose: Not the tool set or anything, but his value varied quite a bit as well, until last year, where he kind of became a consensus solid prospect. I'm trying to remember who Toronto gave up to get him, but it seems like they were thought to have gotten killed in that trade, if I remember correctly.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, Szczur is going to make BA's top 100, so he's probably close anyway. That said, he's probably a guy that teams could either love or hate, so while top 100 lists are purely for fun, his true value lies with whoever we're talking to. In a way, he reminds me of Anthony Gose: Not the tool set or anything, but his value varied quite a bit as well, until last year, where he kind of became a consensus solid prospect. I'm trying to remember who Toronto gave up to get him, but it seems like they were thought to have gotten killed in that trade, if I remember correctly.

 

It was the Brett Wallace trade, and the initial reactions did favor Houston landing Wallace, as Gose was viewed as a raw toolsy kid while Wallace was thought of as a polished upper level bat.

[craig]

....

Last year, BA had only 10 OF listed in the top 100 prospects (12 if you count guys like Alonso who were listed as 1B/OF). Sczcur is supposed to be in their top 100 list this year. .....

 

Did Callis say that? That's really surprising, if true. I didn't think he'd be remotely close to making any top-100 list, or top ten outfielder lists. I wouldn't have been sure he'd make a top-30 outfielder list.

 

I'm still hopeful that he'll work out. But I wouldn't have thought many people liked him as a top-100 guy.

[davell]

Callis said a couple of times Brett, Baez, and Szczur will be in the top 100. Obviously, Rizzo will be as well, but he was asked before we traded for him. BA is pretty bullish on our system as Callis has said we were 12th in their rankings, BEFORE the Rizzo deal and could move up a spot or two, with that.

[Guest]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

 

No.

[Guest]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

 

No.

LaHair?

[jersey cubs fan]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

 

No.

LaHair?

 

They've made that statement a few times now. My guess is unless he bombs miserably in the spring he will be the opening day starter.