BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[CUBZ99]

Tim - Here are a few quick questions for Callis, I will definitely have more when I have time to compose them.

 

 

Rank the following Cubs pitching prospects Rhee, Maples, Wells, Beeler, Whitenack, McNutt.

 

Had Whitenack not been injured this year, where did he project on your list?

 

What do you attribute Logan Watkins improvement to this year, and is it sustainable?

 

Who is your sleeper pick to improve in ranking the most from the Cubs system in 2012?

 

Who were the candidates for number 11 on your list?

 

[ScrubMD]

Most likely/ least likely to turn things around: Simpson, Jay Jackson, Austin Reed.

[seattlecub]

 

How much of Vogelbach’s ranking next year will depend on performance and projection, vs. sense of how he keeps his conditioning? In other words, if he and another theoretical 1b prospect of same age and tools projections (but without any concerns about conditioning) put up similar/same performance in Peoria, how much would Vogelbach’s prospect status be dinged relative to the other 1b prospect?

 

Can Devoss stick at 2b? Can Silva?

 

Any idea whether the Cubs are trying/will try to alter Maples’ mechanics?

 

Do you know a couple names of sleepers the Cubs are high on? That you are high on?

 

Any idea what was up with Antigua’s night and day season (meh in Peoria, much better in Daytona) and how his stuff was while at Daytona?

 

What exactly did they find was wrong with Simpson’s arm?

 

Any idea where Cubs are leaning on sending Candelario and/or Penalver to start next season? Any chance any of Acosta/Malave/Marcona go anywhere other than DSL next season, either to start with or before end of season?

 

How long do you think the Cubs keep Baez at short (in other words, how much time do they give him to prove he can handle the position). Not sure he has to move off, but how much time does he get to show he doesn’t have to move to 3b or somewhere else?

 

How do Marco Hernandez and Gyoskar Amaya rank relative to one another, and why?

 

Does Golden seem to be making strides at turning his tools into skills (i.e., athlete becoming better baseball player)?

 

Could you rank top 3 pitchers in terms of upside? top 3 position players?

 

Any sense of how draft philosophy might change under new regime? or that of IFA signings?

 

[Guancous]

Great work, Tim!

 

 

What are the main differences in drafting style between Theo Epstein and Jim Hendry?

 

How about the differences between Epstein and Jed Hoyer?

 

[SouthSideRyan]

How do you see Tim Wilken and Jason McLeod coexisting leading up to next year's draft? Is this a playing out the string situation for Wilken, or could he possibly re-up assuming him and McLeod establish a good working relationship?

[bukie]

 

Which prospects in the Cubs system were most overvalued by the prior front office in comparison to the current front office?

 

Do the Cubs have any prospects in their system that are more valued by the current front office than the prior regime?

 

[StylesClash]

 

Javier Baez reminds me a lot of Corey Patterson, Ryan Harvey and Josh Vitters. Baez, like those three, is a toolsy high school hitter selected in the top ten of the draft. And while the upside for Baez is solid, his aggressive nature at the plate also is very similar. Why should this pessimistic Cub fan believe the career of Baez will turn out any better than these three.

 

Considering how baren Chicago's roster is in terms of speed and plate discipline Zeke Devoss seems like quite the useful prospect. Is there a realistic chance of seeing him become the Cubs second baseman and leadoff man in another three years or so?

 

[Outshined_One]

My questions:

 

 

While it may be quite early to project his future, what is Jeimer Candelario's upside?

 

Does Oliver Zapata have much of a future with the Cubs, or does he seem more along the lines of organizational filler?

 

Where would you rank Reggie Golden in your Cubs prospect list? Why?

 

Please rank the following Cubs low A/short season pitching prospects: Luis Liria, Willengton Cruz, Yao-Lin Wang, Jose Rosario, Su-Min Jung, and Jin-Yeong Kim.

 

Were the Cubs justified in moving Alberto Cabrera up to AAA? How does his future look?

 

What is Nick Struck's upside?

 

 

Thanks!

[toonsterwu]

I haven't gone through the questions, so there may be some repetition.

 

 

Do you think Ben Wells breaking ball can develop into an above average-to-plus pitch in time?

 

BA, moreso than any other place, has put out some very laudatory comments on Marco Hernandez, suggesting he has plus speed, arm (write-up for AZL Top 20), 15 HR power projection (AZL Top 20 chat with Bill Mitchell), good bat-to-ball skills (prospect hot sheet helium watch), and good bat speed/contact ability/range/athletic frame (believe AZL Top 20 write-up), amongst other things. In a system with a weak top right now, why is he ranked so low? He might not reach his ceiling, but a potential above average offensive shortstop with above average defensive ability at short seems to be far more intriguing than many others ahead of him.

 

What is your take on the Cubs ability to develop pitchers, and in particular, adjust their mechanics? As it relates to current prospects, I'm thinking about guys like Austin Reed, Nick Struck, and Dillon Maples.

 

What's your take on Dae-Eun Rhee's slider?

 

Jeffry Antigua had a solid run to end A+. What are the reports you have gotten on his stuff this year?

 

Logan Watkins had a nice run in the summer. Did he make legitimate offensive improvements, or was it a hot streak?

 

Does Gioskar Amaya project to have enough power to fit into a corner role, as most assumptions seem to be that he'll grow out of shortstop?

 

Is Alberto Cabrera better off in the pen where he can ramp up the fastball to go with the good slider? Or do you think he can develop enough command to make it as a starter (along with improving the change)?

 

Do you think Ryan Flaherty has enough ability that he could settle in as a decent defensive 3rd basemen, if he got the work?

 

DJ LeMahieu seemed to be showing some minor signs of offensive improvement in AA, before going back to his slap happy ways. Was the AA performance a mirage, or did the call-up (and subsequently, getting inconsistent PT) hurt his development?

 

Does Luis Liria have enough command of his pitches to make it as a starter, or is the electric stuff better off in the pen?

 

What's your take on Jae-Hoon Ha's approach? Does he show a good enough eye at the plate to go with his solid hit "tool"?

 

[Guest]

 

Not a question for the expert, Why are these questions in spoiler tags?

Question for expert, who is playing 3rd base for the Cubs in 2014?

Casto

Baez

Lake

Vitters

none of the above

all the above

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I put mine in spoiler tags to keep the page from getting ridiculously long.

[Guest]

Last chance to get in your questions. I'm going to gather these up and add my own to send on to Jim this (Friday) evening.

[wvcbxl]

Without reading through all the other questions:

 

Would it be fair to say that draftees have an initial advantage over international free agents of comparable talent when it comes to BA prospect rankings?

 

[Guest]

Last chance to get in your questions. I'm going to gather these up and add my own to send on to Jim this (Friday) evening.

 

By the way, a couple of questions were asked already and answered in the BA chat:

 

Any idea whether the Cubs are trying/will try to alter Maples’ mechanics?

 

What exactly did they find was wrong with Simpson’s arm?

 

Callis' answers:

 

 

Maples has a pair of plus pitches in his heavy 92-96 mph fastball and hard curveball. There's little question about the quality of his arm, though many scouts worry about his mechanics. Though he's athletic, he has a non-athletic delivery with a short arm action and a stiff, upright finish. That could lead to problems with his command—he locates his curve better than his fastball—and stress on his shoulder. For their part, the Cubs don't have any significant concerns and won't make any major adjustments. They'll have him focus on improving his fastball location and developing a changeup.

 

Simpson had a stress reaction and a small tear in his elbow, both of which have healed.

 

[Guest]

Last chance to get in your questions. I'm going to gather these up and add my own to send on to Jim this (Friday) evening.

 

By the way, a couple of questions were asked already and answered in the BA chat:

 

Any idea whether the Cubs are trying/will try to alter Maples’ mechanics?

 

What exactly did they find was wrong with Simpson’s arm?

 

Callis' answers:

 

 

Maples has a pair of plus pitches in his heavy 92-96 mph fastball and hard curveball. There's little question about the quality of his arm, though many scouts worry about his mechanics. Though he's athletic, he has a non-athletic delivery with a short arm action and a stiff, upright finish. That could lead to problems with his command—he locates his curve better than his fastball—and stress on his shoulder. For their part, the Cubs don't have any significant concerns and won't make any major adjustments. They'll have him focus on improving his fastball location and developing a changeup.

 

Simpson had a stress reaction and a small tear in his elbow, both of which have healed.

Thanks - I'll be sure to vet all the questions against the chat before sending them off.

[Guest]

My question:

 

 

How would you rate the lefty starters in the system (the ones who stand out to me are Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Casey Harman, Frank Del Valle, Jeffry Antigua, Graham Hicks, Zac Rosscup, Willengton Cruz and Austin Kirk)? What are their ceilings and do any of them have the chance to be anything more than a back end of the rotation starter?

 

[The Other One]

 

 

 

 

1. Epstein focused on the medical personnel in Boston seemingly as a way to gain an edge as to conditioning and reduced injuries. What innovative technique if any was Boston using in the minors to develop pitchers beyond the pitcher abuse points/pitch counts that are currently in vogue around the league? How about San Diego?

 

2. During their tenures at Boston and San Diego, was the emphasis on drafting mechanically sound pitchers or raw talent with the emphasis on developing/refining mechanics once they were on board?

 

3. Which Cubs' pitchers stands to benefit most from the new development approach? Which will be hurt or unaffected?

 

4. Especially at lower levels, my assumption is clubs have prospects work on aspects of their game without regard to the statistical result. How do you factor this into pitcher rankings, or is this why you get paid the big bucks?

 

5. Bill James was hired by Boston. When to you get added to the Cubs?

[Little Slide Rooter]

If it's not too late to submit questions:

 

 

What is the likelyhood of Dae Eun Rhee and Jeff Antigua being selected in the Rule 5 draft and being kept on the picking teams roster all season.

 

[Guest]

If it's not too late to submit questions:

 

 

What is the likelyhood of Dae Eun Rhee and Jeff Antigua being selected in the Rule 5 draft and being kept on the picking teams roster all season.

As it happens, I went out last night and didn't summarize the list. You're in luck! :)

[Guest]

Kevin Goldstein will have his top 20 Cubs prospect list up tomorrow on the Baseball Prospectus web site.

[Guest]

Kevin Goldstein will have his top 20 Cubs prospect list up tomorrow on the Baseball Prospectus web site.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15574

 

System in 20 Words or Less: It’s not a bad system by any measurement, but it has far more depth than star power.

 

Five-Star Prospects

1. Brett Jackson, OF

Four-Star Prospects

2. Javier Baez, SS

Three-Star Prospects

3. Welington Castillo, C

4. Dillon Maples, RHP

5. Matt Szczur, OF

6. Josh Vitters, 3B

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

8. Trey McNutt, RHP

9. Marco Hernandez, SS

Two-Star Prospects

10. Junior Lake, SS/3B

11. Rafael Dolis, RHP

 

Nine More:

12. Dan Vogelbach, 1B: This second-round pick is a big, unathletic, bat-only type, but his power is very real.

13. Jae-Hoon Ha, OF: He lacks the power for a corner, but he’s not quite a center fielder, so he’s a bit of a tweener.

14. Chris Carpenter, RHP: He still has outstanding velocity, but his command troubles and injury history are red flags.

15. Tony Zych, RHP: Zych, a fourth-round pick, has late-inning potential with mid- to upper-90s heat, but he needs to improve his breaking ball.

16. Ryan Flaherty, UT: He hit 19 home runs in 2011, but he doesn't have a defensive home and has to cheat for power.

17. DJ Lemahieu, INF: He’s similar to Flaherty, but without the power.

18. Zeke DeVoss, OF: He’s a speedster with a good approach, but since pitchers have no reason to fear him, his on-base skills could deteriorate.

19. Reggie Golden, OF: Golden has impressive tools, but he still has a very long way to go.

20. Marwin Gonzalez, INF: He’s certainly not an upside guy, but he could arrive as early as this year in a utility spot.

 

The whole thing is a very good read. The best news to me was the consensus that Vitters has made strides defensively to be an average 3B with an above average arm. It'd be nice to only have to worry about him on one front.

[CubColtPacer]

Kevin Goldstein will have his top 20 Cubs prospect list up tomorrow on the Baseball Prospectus web site.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15574

 

System in 20 Words or Less: It’s not a bad system by any measurement, but it has far more depth than star power.

 

Five-Star Prospects

1. Brett Jackson, OF

Four-Star Prospects

2. Javier Baez, SS

Three-Star Prospects

3. Welington Castillo, C

4. Dillon Maples, RHP

5. Matt Szczur, OF

6. Josh Vitters, 3B

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

8. Trey McNutt, RHP

9. Marco Hernandez, SS

Two-Star Prospects

10. Junior Lake, SS/3B

11. Rafael Dolis, RHP

 

Nine More:

12. Dan Vogelbach, 1B: This second-round pick is a big, unathletic, bat-only type, but his power is very real.

13. Jae-Hoon Ha, OF: He lacks the power for a corner, but he’s not quite a center fielder, so he’s a bit of a tweener.

14. Chris Carpenter, RHP: He still has outstanding velocity, but his command troubles and injury history are red flags.

15. Tony Zych, RHP: Zych, a fourth-round pick, has late-inning potential with mid- to upper-90s heat, but he needs to improve his breaking ball.

16. Ryan Flaherty, UT: He hit 19 home runs in 2011, but he doesn't have a defensive home and has to cheat for power.

17. DJ Lemahieu, INF: He’s similar to Flaherty, but without the power.

18. Zeke DeVoss, OF: He’s a speedster with a good approach, but since pitchers have no reason to fear him, his on-base skills could deteriorate.

19. Reggie Golden, OF: Golden has impressive tools, but he still has a very long way to go.

20. Marwin Gonzalez, INF: He’s certainly not an upside guy, but he could arrive as early as this year in a utility spot.

 

The whole thing is a very good read. The best news to me was that the consensus that Vitters has made strides defensively to be an average 3B with an above average arm. It'd be nice to only have to worry about him on one front.

 

That is very good. That is the only reason I can see putting Vitters in the top 10. If he's a 1B/LF, he's pretty far down the list of prospects. But at 3B, he still has a lot of upside remaining.

 

And the report on Ha is very different than the one that BA gave. They said he was the best CF defensively in the system while BP says that he's not quite suited for CF. The BP one makes more sense for his relative lack of hype and placement outside the top 10.

 

Because with his age, his numbers, and playing a good defensive CF it made no sense why BA would not put him in the top 10. Ha just turned 21 after the season and is already in AA.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What does cheat for power mean?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Looks like starting pitching is a gaping hole in our system, but that could change depending on the progress of some of the 2011 picks as well as guys like Wells, Rhee, Struck, Antigua, Beeler, Peralta, and the potential return of Whitenack.

[davell]

Excellent read, even if we've probably got our top 20's looking quite a bit different than he has his. Surprised Wells and Rhee, maybe even Antigua didn't make his list. Especially since he went the upside route quite a bit otherwise. I think I'm starting to get influenced some on all these reports on Castillo. If he has more trade value than I thought, it's probably a great time to deal him. I think the idea of Maples starting in full season ball next year is very ambitious personally. But I probably shouldn't let a few Instructs innings influence me all that much either. And I too, can't for the life of me figure out what the "cheating for power" line meant either on Flaherty.