CJ Wilson thread: Signed by Angels 5/$77.5 million pg 10

[bukie]

And when CJ Wilson was awesome in the playoffs and World Series last year, it doesn't count because nobody could be bothered to remember that far back when considering his value.

[SweetZombieJesus]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

My worry is that Wilson is another guy like Dempster who cashes in on a career year post thirty and lands a albatross type contract.

[javy knows my name]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

My worry is that Wilson is another guy like Dempster who cashes in on a career year post thirty and lands a albatross type contract.

 

Dempster's been worth every cent we've paid him, and the two pitchers could not have had more different career arcs at their respective age 30 seasons, but otherwise, this post is spot-on.

[KingCubsFan]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

My worry is that Wilson is another guy like Dempster who cashes in on a career year post thirty and lands a albatross type contract.

 

Dempster's been worth every cent we've paid him, and the two pitchers could not have had more different career arcs at their respective age 30 seasons, but otherwise, this post is spot-on.

Not sure that he's been "worth every cent," but overall he's been pretty solid and certainly isn't an albatross contract.

[bukie]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

My worry is that Wilson is another guy like Dempster who cashes in on a career year post thirty and lands a albatross type contract.

 

Dempster's been worth every cent we've paid him, and the two pitchers could not have had more different career arcs at their respective age 30 seasons, but otherwise, this post is spot-on.

Not sure that he's been "worth every cent," but overall he's been pretty solid and certainly isn't an albatross contract.

The only year to this point where he hasn't outvalued his contract is this past year, and the difference is fairly marginal. Overall production vs. salary, though, he's produced more value than he's earned.

 

And he's still nowhere near CJ Wilson (segue...)

[SouthSideRyan]

Buckeye is a Cardinals fan.

 

And yes it's hilarious that he thinks Chris Carpenter and a recovering from TJS Wainwright are better than Wilson.

 

Simple as that.

[mul21]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

My worry is that Wilson is another guy like Dempster who cashes in on a career year post thirty and lands a albatross type contract.

 

Except for how that didn't actually happen. If a Wilson contract turns out as well as Dempster's in terms of production per dollar spent, I think we'd all be pretty damn pleased with the signing.

[buckeye27]

In 2 years in the post season, wilson has a 1-5 record with a 4.82 era. While I may overrate carpenter because of a personal bias towards him, it does stand he is 9-2 lifetime in the playoffs with a 3.05 era.

 

Obviously he is older, aging and who knows what he has left in the tank, Carp that is. But when I'm looking for a true number one, no matter what team I am a fan of, I'm thinking longterm, I'm thinking playoffs. And while people may write off Wilsons playoff record, it still stands there as 1-5 with a close to 5.00 era.

 

If im looking at wilson from the standpoint of a team that is making the playoffs, then you'd be crazy to to discount his post season struggles and ignore them when signing him. But I think that when viewing wilson, it really depends what you're looking for when considering signing him, are you looking for that shutdown ace? I just dont see him as that.

[MWV]

Must not rise to bait...

[Guest]

In 2 years in the post season, wilson has a 1-5 record with a 4.82 era. While I may overrate carpenter because of a personal bias towards him, it does stand he is 9-2 lifetime in the playoffs with a 3.05 era.

 

Obviously he is older, aging and who knows what he has left in the tank, Carp that is. But when I'm looking for a true number one, no matter what team I am a fan of, I'm thinking longterm, I'm thinking playoffs. And while people may write off Wilsons playoff record, it still stands there as 1-5 with a close to 5.00 era.

 

If im looking at wilson from the standpoint of a team that is making the playoffs, then you'd be crazy to to discount his post season struggles and ignore them when signing him. But I think that when viewing wilson, it really depends what you're looking for when considering signing him, are you looking for that shutdown ace? I just dont see him as that.

 

your eyes are lying to you. badly.

 

 

and seriously? there are still people, people who actually use internet message boards to discuss baseball, who cite pitcher wins and losses? really?

[MWV]

Can't resist.

CC Sabathia: 4.81 playoff ERA

Jeff Weaver: 3.89 playoff ERA

 

Clearly, Weaver is the superior pitcher.

[davearm2]

Yeah, not sure why you'd consider a guy, who since becoming a starter has the 9th highest WAR in baseball, a #1. Doesn't make much sense.

Obviously what Wilson's production over the next 5-6 years will be is more relevant than what it has been for the last 2.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd be willing to wager that most folks don't anticipate he'll be amongst baseball's ten best players going forward.

[Tyrant]

He would not be our #3 he would certainly be our #2 maybe our 1b.

 

I'm still holding out hope for Fielder or Pujols but apparently Wilson is a pretty good hitter, so...

[Exile on Waveland]

I put little stock in the postseason numbers, and even less in the wins, but I'm still wary of Wilson. He strikes me as someone just waiting to fail to live up to his big contract (though I do wonder if he'd be more likely to continue his pace in Texas).

 

I'm sure this is the point where someone points out his production the previous two years. Obviously, he's been excellent. The question is, do two outstanding seasons at 29/30 years of age presage four/five more at 31-34/35? I'm dubious.

Edited November 18, 2011 by Exile on Waveland

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, he doesn't have a 30-year old SP's typical wear and tear. Far below it. You can't just toss his age out there like he's a typical SP in that regard.

[buckeye27]

I am by no means saying that wilson is a bad pitcher. He will make one of the best #2's on a staff somewhere. Watching him pitch, he does not seem to have shut down stuff. He seems to have control problems at times. And is apparently looking for 120m or something crazy along those lines.

 

His numbers have been very very good the past 2 years, regular season numbers. I think you do have to consider that he does play in the AL west, where two of the worst offenses in the AL reside. The angels which would complete the division aren't much better offensively.

[Guest]

I am by no means saying that wilson is a bad pitcher. He will make one of the best #2's on a staff somewhere. Watching him pitch, he does not seem to have shut down stuff. He seems to have control problems at times. And is apparently looking for 120m or something crazy along those lines.

 

His numbers have been very very good the past 2 years, regular season numbers. I think you do have to consider that he does play in the AL west, where two of the worst offenses in the AL reside. The angels which would complete the division aren't much better offensively.

He also pitches half his games in the best hitters park in baseball.

[Exile on Waveland]

Again, he doesn't have a 30-year old SP's typical wear and tear. Far below it. You can't just toss his age out there like he's a typical SP in that regard.

 

That's very true. And while this board has come to believe that means he is less likely get hurt . . . I'm wary of such proclamations. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm unaware of any analysis that shows a pitcher that never pitched major innings, then pitched 200+ innings consecutive seasons, is less of an injury risk than someone who has consistently proven they can handle that workload. (For an example, at least prior to his last deal, I would have had few qualms about CC Sabathia, despite his previous workload.) I'm not sure this "only so many bullets in the arm" logic holds much water. Pitchers get hurt -- sometimes they've pitched a lot; sometimes they've pitched little.

 

Wilson's less-than-typical wear and tear also means he doesn't have the track record of success I'd prefer to see in a big-money deal. He's had two good years as a starter -- granted, the only two years he's been a starter -- and he will a sign a major-money deal to start for about three times the years he's been a starter. He also, in my opinion, doesn't elite talent/stuff.

 

We all know Pujols is a stud. We all know Fielder is a stud. That's why you sign them; even overpay them. Can we really, honestly, say the same thing about Wilson, or does he just happen to be the best starter on the market this particular offseason?

Edited November 18, 2011 by Exile on Waveland

[MSG T]

Yeah, not sure why you'd consider a guy, who since becoming a starter has the 9th highest WAR in baseball, a #1. Doesn't make much sense.

Obviously what Wilson's production over the next 5-6 years will be is more relevant than what it has been for the last 2.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd be willing to wager that most folks don't anticipate he'll be amongst baseball's ten best players going forward.

 

 

Maybe not, but I'd be willing to wager that over the next 3-4 years he's still one of the 20 best, or so, and that still puts him squarely in #1 pitcher territory. I wouldn't argue if someone claims he's bound to drop off some. But, from where he currently is, even a slight drop off is still really good.

[Guest]

I put little stock in the postseason numbers, and even less in the wins, but I'm still weary of Wilson. He strikes me as someone just waiting to fail to live up to his big contract (though I do wonder if he'd be more likely to continue his pace in Texas).

 

 

Tired of him already? We haven't even signed him yet.

[Guest]

I think Exile has a fair point, though.

 

The "injury nexus" is talked about for young pitchers, but who is to say that the nexus is caused by age instead of a certain workload built up on an arm across HS, college, minor league and initial major league experience? It could be that Wilson is just nearing a threshold at which he will be shown to either be a durable guy or someone who may get exposed as not being able to handle the long term workload.

 

Signing any starting pitcher to a big deal is risky. What I'm hoping with Wilson is that the market just isn't there for a six or even five year deal because of his shorter track record as a starter (and some teams being eliminated because of his "unclutch" performances in the playoffs).

 

If Wilson could be had on a four year deal at an AAV around $15M, I'd be happy to have him. That fifth year would make me very worried, though.

[dew1679666265]

That's very true. And while this board has come to believe that means he is less likely get hurt . . . I'm weary of such proclamations. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm unaware of any analysis that shows a pitcher that never pitched major innings, then pitched 200+ innings consecutive seasons, is less of an injury risk than someone who has consistently proven they can handle that workload. (For an example, at least prior to his last deal, I would have had few qualms about CC Sabathia, despite his previous workload.) I'm not sure this "only so many bullets in the arm" logic holds much water. Pitchers get hurt -- sometimes they've pitched a lot; sometimes they've pitched little.

 

Wilson's less-than-typical wear and tear also means he doesn't have the track record of success I'd prefer to see in a big-money deal. He's had two good years as a starter -- granted, the only two years he's been a starter -- and he will a sign a major-money deal to start for about three times the years he's been a starter. He also, in my opinion, doesn't elite talent/stuff.

 

We all know Pujols is a stud. We all know Fielder is a stud. That's why you sign them; even overpay them. Can we really, honestly, say the same thing about Wilson, or does he just happen to be the best starter on the market this particular offseason?

 

It's not just injury concerns, though. When pitchers throw a ton of innings, they tend to lose effectiveness as well, even if they don't get hurt. Look at Z for example. He's thrown over 1,800 innings in his career and just had his worst ML season with peripherals that make him look very questionable going forward. He's also a year younger (30) than Wilson in 2011 (31). He's not had injury issues, but even though he's still young, he's getting ineffective - and it's largely because he's thrown a huge amount of innings.

 

Abusing a pitcher's arm doesn't necessarily simply make them more likely to get hurt, it damages their effectiveness. There are certainly exceptions (CC), but if I'm going to give out a big money deal to a pitcher, I'm going to feel better giving it to a guy who doesn't have a ton of wear on his arm because the chances are better he'll remain effective throughout his contract.

 

Another encouraging sign for Wilson is that while he's only had two excellent seasons (out of 2 total starting), his peripherals have improved from year one to year two. His K/9 went up almost a full strikeout (7.50 to 8.30), his BB/9 dropped more than a walk (4.10 to 2.90) and his WHIP got better (1.25 to 1.19). None of his numbers were boosted by luck, either, as his HR/FB ratio actually went up (5.3% to 8.2%) and his BABIP went up (.266 to .287). Granted he doesn't have the long track record of Prince or Pujols, but I'm not advocating giving him $20+ million over 8-10 years like has been advocated for Prince and Pujols. My limit has been 5/85-90 with the possibility of a 6th year option (vesting, ideally). His camp beginning negotiations at 6/120 backs that hope up, as it's almost a certainty they'll get less than their initial demand.

 

Keep this in mind as well - Cliff Lee had three excellent seasons before signing a 5/120 deal. Wilson has had two before his big deal, however he has not had the complete ineffectiveness Lee had prior to his breakout. Wilson might just be a better gamble at a lesser cost than Lee was.

[jersey cubs fan]

Wilson might just be a better gamble at a lesser cost than Lee was.

 

He might be, but I happen to believe he is not. I think the things you are holding up as his best attributes are actually fairly scary.

[Backtobanks]

I think Exile has a fair point, though.

 

The "injury nexus" is talked about for young pitchers, but who is to say that the nexus is caused by age instead of a certain workload built up on an arm across HS, college, minor league and initial major league experience? It could be that Wilson is just nearing a threshold at which he will be shown to either be a durable guy or someone who may get exposed as not being able to handle the long term workload.

 

Signing any starting pitcher to a big deal is risky. What I'm hoping with Wilson is that the market just isn't there for a six or even five year deal because of his shorter track record as a starter (and some teams being eliminated because of his "unclutch" performances in the playoffs).

 

If Wilson could be had on a four year deal at an AAV around $15M, I'd be happy to have him. That fifth year would make me very worried, though.

 

Unfortunately, there will be multiple GMs willing to go better than $60 million/4years for him. I think he is going to be this year's Jason Werth.

[Guest]

I think Exile has a fair point, though.

 

The "injury nexus" is talked about for young pitchers, but who is to say that the nexus is caused by age instead of a certain workload built up on an arm across HS, college, minor league and initial major league experience? It could be that Wilson is just nearing a threshold at which he will be shown to either be a durable guy or someone who may get exposed as not being able to handle the long term workload.

 

Signing any starting pitcher to a big deal is risky. What I'm hoping with Wilson is that the market just isn't there for a six or even five year deal because of his shorter track record as a starter (and some teams being eliminated because of his "unclutch" performances in the playoffs).

 

If Wilson could be had on a four year deal at an AAV around $15M, I'd be happy to have him. That fifth year would make me very worried, though.

 

Unfortunately, there will be multiple GMs willing to go better than $60 million/4years for him. I think he is going to be this year's Jason Werth.

More power to them, then.

 

Give star money to star players. Don't give star money to guys who may be start players.