College Basketball 2011-2012

[TruffleShuffle]

Zack Novak's the only white guard i'll ever love

 

somewhere dugan fife is crying in a corner

[Bruno7481]

Indiana will crack the top 10 today. That is insane.

 

Likely looking at a 1-1 week. Thursday at home against Minnesota and then on the road Sunday at Ohio State.

[Smack]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

[Smack]

Also, with last night's 9-19 FT shooting performance, Purdue is now shooting 61.4% from the FT line for the year (58.6% in conference play).

 

That puts us 321st out of 345 nationally, and dead last in the B1G.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

A home loss to Iowa should be enough to bump anyone out of the top 50 in any rankings.

[bukie]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

[treebird]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

 

he sure is defensive

[bukie]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

 

he sure is defensive

I understand the point he's trying to make, though, that the system is in itself intended to be as accurately predictive as possible for all 345 teams. He'd rather the thing be accurate for 344 and off on 1 than be right on the 1 but more inaccurate for the remaining 344. He understands that it's not right, but his system doesn't incorporate wins and losses into the equation, only relative offensive and defensive efficiency, and Wisconsin, for better or worse, was ungodly efficient in the non-conference slate.

[Guest]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

 

he sure is defensive

 

Yeah, Pomeroy is a bit of a tool about some things. I had to stop following him on twitter last year because the smug was too much to bear.

[bukie]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

 

he sure is defensive

 

Yeah, Pomeroy is a bit of a tool about some things. I had to stop following him on twitter last year because the smug was too much to bear.

Pomeroy's not so bad. Jerry Palm (the CollegeRPI guy) is a complete tool, though.

[Exile on Waveland]

Ken Pomeroy needs to do some serious work on his rankings formula. Wisconsin is still ranked #2 this morning. I know its based heavily on their non-conference blowouts, but they're almost a quarter of the way through their B1G schedule already.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/on_wisconsin_the_faq/

 

First, I knew he did, but it is refreshing that he acknowledges that his system is flawed vis-a-vis Wisconsin. Wisconsin was never going to be a top-five team this year; Bo Ryan's recruiting had slipped too much for that (I believe illiniguy has often, correctly, pointed out the fallacy that Wisconsin won despite not having talent).

 

Second, I would agree that Wisconsin doesn't invalidate his overall work. However, what it does, is helps prove that Pomeroy is merely a tool. It's a good one, probably the best one. It's just not inerrant. I love empiricism as much as anyone, but when the empiricism shows something that is (seemingly?) absurd, we should still remain skeptical. Especially considering basketball is not baseball when it comes to empiricism. I'll step off my soap box now.

[Exile on Waveland]

Michigan up 13 on Wisconsin in the 2nd half. I know Wisconsin is on a big slide but with Memphis sucking, this would be UMs biggest win so far. There will be plenty of chances to get good wins in the Big Ten but it would be good to get the first one out of the way.

 

Before the season started, I thought, among Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Michigan were overrated while Michigan State and Illinois were underrated. Having seen Michigan in person, I no longer think that (in my defense, I don't think anyone expected Trey Burke to be so good). Michigan will have plenty of opportunities for good wins and they'll end up with a few, little doubt. And if they can hang on to Tim Hardaway, Jr., they could be excellent next year (though I do think Mitch McGary is a bit overrated but I haven't seen him much since his improvement).

[treebird]

Second, I would agree that Wisconsin doesn't invalidate his overall work. However, what it does, is helps prove that Pomeroy is merely a tool. It's a good one, probably the best one. It's just not inerrant. I love empiricism as much as anyone, but when the empiricism shows something that is (seemingly?) absurd, we should still remain skeptical. Especially considering basketball is not baseball when it comes to empiricism. I'll step off my soap box now.

 

in which we discover the dangers of naming your evaluation system after yourself.

[Exile on Waveland]

Second, I would agree that Wisconsin doesn't invalidate his overall work. However, what it does, is helps prove that Pomeroy is merely a tool. It's a good one, probably the best one. It's just not inerrant. I love empiricism as much as anyone, but when the empiricism shows something that is (seemingly?) absurd, we should still remain skeptical. Especially considering basketball is not baseball when it comes to empiricism. I'll step off my soap box now.

 

in which we discover the dangers of naming your evaluation system after yourself.

 

Ha ha. Does that mean I just said Pomeroy has a good tool . . .?

[Exile on Waveland]

I can't believe IU is going to be in the top 10. Way over any expectations I had for them at the beginning of the season, even the hopeful ones. I don't believe they'll be in the top 10 at the end of the season, but that's ok for this year. What a turnaround.

Yeah, I'm still expecting some bad games, but this season has been so much fun. Next year is going to be really exciting.

 

The thing with having low expectations is that you start to expect the team to live down to them at some point. I'm not sure what is meant by "bad games", but honestly, I don't really expect it anymore. They've had plenty of bad moments of basketball this year and have still managed to win those games. I'm not big on the "winning breeds confidence" thing in most cases, but I'm pretty sure Crean is playing up on that to a bunch of kids that have never won enough to know any better. I just don't see the bad losses coming with this team.

I started the season hoping they'd sneak into 6th place in the conference and maybe get a token tourney bid. It's to the point now that I can't look forward to next year. This team should win 25-games and win a tourney game with a shot at a Sweet 16.

 

No? Jeez, by my lights, they just barely avoided bad losses in consecutive games (while Michigan is good, I'd consider a blown fifteen-point lead at home to a peer to be a bad loss). The defensive play has really slipped the last two games. IU seems like a team just waiting to lose a bad game. I just hope they can get through Minnesota without a bad loss, take the lump at Ohio State, then get Will Sheehey back. They're really missing him -- his return, if nothing else, should help alleviate Crean's poor substitution patterns the past couple games -- even if it hasn't shown up in the won/loss record.

 

I do think they're headed for low/mid-20s in wins and a good NCAA Tournament seed. However, they seem like early-upset fodder -- I'm thinking high seed that loses in the second round (no tournament experience and, despite the amazing start, some rather exploitable weaknesses). That should still be considered a rousing success and garner Crean coach-of-the-year accolades.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just don't see the bad losses coming with this team.

 

Whoa, I missed that. That's crazy talk for pretty much any college team. And Indiana is one that relies heavily on a true freshman anchoring the post.

[rawaction]

I can't believe IU is going to be in the top 10. Way over any expectations I had for them at the beginning of the season, even the hopeful ones. I don't believe they'll be in the top 10 at the end of the season, but that's ok for this year. What a turnaround.

Yeah, I'm still expecting some bad games, but this season has been so much fun. Next year is going to be really exciting.

 

The thing with having low expectations is that you start to expect the team to live down to them at some point. I'm not sure what is meant by "bad games", but honestly, I don't really expect it anymore. They've had plenty of bad moments of basketball this year and have still managed to win those games. I'm not big on the "winning breeds confidence" thing in most cases, but I'm pretty sure Crean is playing up on that to a bunch of kids that have never won enough to know any better. I just don't see the bad losses coming with this team.

I started the season hoping they'd sneak into 6th place in the conference and maybe get a token tourney bid. It's to the point now that I can't look forward to next year. This team should win 25-games and win a tourney game with a shot at a Sweet 16.

 

No? Jeez, by my lights, they just barely avoided bad losses in consecutive games (while Michigan is good, I'd consider a blown fifteen-point lead at home to a peer to be a bad loss). The defensive play has really slipped the last two games. IU seems like a team just waiting to lose a bad game. I just hope they can get through Minnesota without a bad loss, take the lump at Ohio State, then get Will Sheehey back. They're really missing him -- his return, if nothing else, should help alleviate Crean's poor substitution patterns the past couple games -- even if it hasn't shown up in the won/loss record.

 

I do think they're headed for low/mid-20s in wins and a good NCAA Tournament seed. However, they seem like early-upset fodder -- I'm thinking high seed that loses in the second round (no tournament experience and, despite the amazing start, some rather exploitable weaknesses). That should still be considered a rousing success and garner Crean coach-of-the-year accolades.

 

I guess the difference is in what we consider a bad loss. They obviously aren't going to win every game they're favored in. By bad loss, I'm talking about losing at home against a non-tourney worthy team or losing on the road to a bottom feeder in the conference. Losing to Minnesota would be a bad loss, but I don't see that happening.

 

I agree about the defensive play, but I didn't think either of the Michigan/Penn St games were all that much in jeopardy because we were on the FT line late in both games.

 

Not really worried about a freshman post leading the way either. IU was able to win with Zeller fouled out of a tie game vs. Ohio St. They have been able to win without him having a dominant game by any means (see Penn St and only 10 points). Maybe I'm naive, but that's how I feel at this point.

[bukie]

Just for kicks, here's a comparison of every single known computer rating for NCAA basketball teams.

 

Wisconsin averages out to 27th. 2nd in Pomeroy, 63rd in RPI.

[Guest]

LOL. We're fifth worst.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Damn near cracked the top 100.

[bukie]

UCLA wins the "nobody has any idea" award, 42nd in Moore's ratings, and 292nd in Elo Basketball.

[Magnetic Curses]

welp, if we're out of it by half time, at least the people of skyrim need me and eagerly await my return.

[radarluv1]

welp, if we're out of it by half time, at least the people of skyrim need me and eagerly await my return.

i've got the rise of the apes movie loaded and ready just in case. whats everyones opinion on bertrand's success? doesnt seem he shoots threes too often, maybe teams will lay off him and make him shoot 20% out there like Paul.

ETA looked it up holy crap bertrand 2pt FG 48/78 3pt FG 0/2

Edited January 11, 2012 by radarluv1

[bcl412]

This Iowa game is really making me think Wisconsin blows.

[Magnetic Curses]

welp, if we're out of it by half time, at least the people of skyrim need me and eagerly await my return.

i've got the rise of the apes movie loaded and ready just in case. whats everyones opinion on bertrand's success? doesnt seem he shoots threes too often, maybe teams will lay off him and make him shoot 20% out there like Paul.

ETA looked it up holy crap bertrand 2pt FG 48/78 3pt FG 0/2

 

bertrand needs to keep getting his shot, and i don't mean from 3-point land, he's most likely more dreadful than paul out there, and that's saying something.