Comparing the NL Central

[Cubs Fan Dan]

There is a lot of people out there saying the Cubs are going to battle to finish 4th place, these are my postion by position rankings for the NL Central both offensively and defensively considered. I am possibly over analyzing but I still struggle to see why the other NL Central teams are lock to be better than the Cubs.

 

1B: 1. Pujols, 2. Votto, 3. Fielder, 4. Pena

2B. 1. Weeks 2. Phillips 3. DeWitt/Baker 4. Schumaker

SS. 1. Castro 2. Renteria 3. Theriot 4. Betancourt

3B. 1. Ramirez 2. Rolen 3. McGeehee 4. Friese

LF. 1. Holliday 2. Braun 3. Soriano 4. Heisey/Gomes

CF. 1. Rasmus 2. Stubbs 3. Byrd 4. Gomez/Dickerson

RF. 1. Bruce 2. Hart 3. Fuku/Colvin 4. Berkman/Jay

C. 1. Soto 2. Molina 3. Hernandez/Hanigan 4. Lucroy

 

Offensive Ranks: Total ranking points, lower being best overall lineup.

Stl: 20

Cubs: 19

Reds: 18 - Should be the most productive lineup once again.

Brewers: 23

 

Health Age and Experience considered.

 

1. Wainwright

2. Greinke

3. Carpenter

4. Gallardo

5. Garza

6. Dempster

7. Cueto

8. Zambrano

9. Arroyo

10. Marcum

11. Garcia

12. Volquez

13. Wells

14. Westbrook

15. Wolf

 

Overall Rotation: 1. Cards 2. Brewers. 3. Cubs 4. Reds.

 

Bench: 1. Cardinals 2. Cubs 3. Reds 4. Brewers (Cubs and Cards possibly could be flipped)

 

Bullpen: 1. Cubs 2. Reds 3. Cardinals 4. Brewers

 

As it stands the Cards due to their staff and having similar position by position rankings come in as a slight favorite. However to me offensive, and pitching DEPTH puts the Cubs right into the bunch with the heavy offensive Reds and the Brewers who have a stacked rotation.

 

Best bet to improve / decline:

Cardinals: Friese / Garcia

Cubs: Ramirez / Colvin

Reds: Volquez / Leak

Brewers: Greinke / Hart

 

2010 RS / RA

Brewers: 750 / 804 - Offensively could see a slight decline due to McGeehee and Hart coming back down to reality / Pitching improving vastly.

Cincinatti: 790 / 685 - Offensively should be similar output / Bullpen should be slightly worse, Cueto/ Arroyo slight decline, Volquez improves.

St. Lous: 736 / 641 - Offensively should see similar output / Defensively this team is going to give up more runs and some aging could effect pitching

Cubs: 685 / 767 - Offensively should see improvement due to better production @ 3B and likely 1B. / Starting pitching should improve drastically with Z back in rotation, bullpen should improve slightly with slight decline from Marmol and Marshall but stronger middle relief.

 

Overall Prediction:

1. Cards - Season success hinges on SP health and back end of bullpen.

2. Reds - Season hinges on similar offensive production and pitching, neither of which is a lock to repeat.

3. Cubs - Several bounce back years needed to come back to relevance. A few NL central injuries or key players struggling could keep Cubs in thick of things.

4. Brewers - SP will improve drastically, again health of SP could be key specifically with Marcum and Gallardo. Could see pretty big decline offensively.

5. Astros - Will still be one of those teams that gives opponents fits but a safe bet to finish 5th.

6. Pirates - This team is going to be very bad.

 

I need some sleep..

[Northside Blues]

That's a poor way to judge offense. The difference between Pujols, Votto and Fielder versus Pena is a lot larger than the difference between say Castro and Renteria. I'd also take Berkman over Fukudome and Colvin this season. I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that Garza is the Cubs best starter either or that Greinke is better than Carpenter.

[davell]

I think Marcum is way too low personally.

[Guest]

I'd also take Berkman over Fukudome and Colvin this season.

 

He has to play the OF.

 

But you're right, the relative differences make this a fun but utlimately inaccurate forecast.

 

Without doing much investigating, my feeling is that the Cardinals and Brewers are on a similar plane of about 85-86 wins right now, and the Cubs and Reds are a half step behind at like 82 wins. Completely unscientific on my part, but that's where I am.

[BeerHere]

Marcum and Volquez are too low. McGehee is vastly underrated IMO. He has OPS'd over .800 two years in a row. I would still take Ramirez and Rolen ahead of him. Berkman should be higher.

 

To me the Cubs come down to a couple keys:

1. Starting pitching - Zambrano and Garza in particular

2. Bullpen has to be much better than last year

3. Health of the other teams in the division

4. Soto

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I don't think the Cubs match up well with the Reds, Cards and Brewers. At this point I think this is a 75 win team. Relying on Zambrano is risky. Other than Marmol and Marshall the bullpen is a question mark. The Cubs need down years or injuries to three teams in their division to compete and I don't see that happening. I sincerely hope the team is out of it by ASB and ships Zambrano to the Red Sox for prospects. Hendry is trying to save his job this year but I think he should be setting up for a strong run in 2012.

[UK1679666180]

I would put Carpenter ahead of Greinke and Garcia should be much higher. I would prob take Stl over any pitcher in the division.

[Guest]

Garcia should be much higher. I would prob take Stl over any pitcher in the division.

 

You've got to weight it for when his arm blows up in May.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Garcia should be much higher. I would prob take Stl over any pitcher in the division.

 

You've got to weight it for when his arm blows up in May.

 

I will give Garcia the benefit of the doubt if he comes even close to repeating his 2010 success. I also agree about the risk of injury, his workload has increased significantly this past season.

[biittner77]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

[javy knows my name]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

stop stop stop

 

This means even less than it usually does

[E.J.]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

 

We've basically traded Lee for Pena and Lilly for Garza, and we're somehow going to win 90 games this year?

[JonJayCutler]

Zambrano > Dempster. And that's not even taking into account what he adds at the plate.

[Four and Twenty]

Zambrano > Dempster. And that's not even taking into account what he adds at the plate.

 

It seems people rarely consider his ability at the plate when determining his value.

[XZero771679666304]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

 

We've basically traded Lee for Pena and Lilly for Garza, and we're somehow going to win 90 games this year?

 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Cubs win 90+. I wouldn't be surprised if they win 75, either.

[Guest]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

 

We've basically traded Lee for Pena and Lilly for Garza, and we're somehow going to win 90 games this year?

 

Well, I think they underachieved pretty significantly last year, and 90 would be overachieving pretty significantly this year. Also I think we're going to do better than a combined .750 OPS from 1B and 3B, and our middle relief probably won't be historically bad again either.

[rawaction]

Carpenter is due for another injury this year.

 

The Reds will give back 20 wins from what they did a year ago.

 

DeWitt has a breakout year and Pena feasts on NL pitching in his contract year.

 

Quade is smart enough to actually play Soto and cut Hill.

 

Cubs win the NL Central with 91 wins.

 

We've basically traded Lee for Pena and Lilly for Garza, and we're somehow going to win 90 games this year?

 

Well, I think they underachieved pretty significantly last year, and 90 would be overachieving pretty significantly this year. Also I think we're going to do better than a combined .750 OPS from 1B and 3B, and our middle relief probably won't be historically bad again either.

 

Yeah, people gotta remember that Derrek Lee was pretty bad last year. Then we he got traded, Nady was even worse. 1B was terrible for the Cubs last year. As bad as Pena was last year, he was still better than the Cubs got from 1B last year. He will be better this year. Ramirez was bad for 1/2 the season at 3B, then he played better and the team scored more.

 

A full season of production from 1B, 3B, C, and not having to deal with 4 months of Theriot in the lineup will make a world of difference in the offense. Will it make enough? Who knows?

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, people gotta remember that Derrek Lee was pretty bad last year. Then we he got traded, Nady was even worse. 1B was terrible for the Cubs last year. As bad as Pena was last year, he was still better than the Cubs got from 1B last year. He will be better this year. Ramirez was bad for 1/2 the season at 3B, then he played better and the team scored more.

 

A full season of production from 1B, 3B, C, and not having to deal with 4 months of Theriot in the lineup will make a world of difference in the offense. Will it make enough? Who knows?

 

Just to clarify:

2010 Chicago Cubs 1B production was .254/.325/.397.

 

2010 Carlos Pena production was .196/.325/.407

 

Cubs 1B were pathetic. But so was Pena. Any reasonable improvement by him would be a considerable step up from what the Cubs got.

 

Cubs 3B production was .262/.321/.450 which means Ramirez has to do a bit more to actually be a step up from 2010. Hardly inconceivable though. I wouldn't count on much more C productivity though. .257/.343/.431 last year. Soto has to play at least as well as last year, and get a bigger chunk of the playing time to make a difference.

[Guest]

I wouldn't count on much more C productivity though. .257/.343/.431 last year. Soto has to play at least as well as last year, and get a bigger chunk of the playing time to make a difference.

 

Soto/Hill - 2010: .331 wOBA

 

Bill James Forecasts for Soto/Hill with same PA distribution: .341

- with 450 PA's from Soto: .351

- with Ramirez taking 50 PAs from Hill(Soto's PA's constant): .345

- with 450 PA's from Soto and Ramirez getting 50 PA's: .355

- with 450 PA's from Soto and Ramirez replacing Hill: .361

 

I'd say there's a more than reasonable chance they're better at the catcher's spot.

[Guest]

Marcum and Volquez are too low. McGehee is vastly underrated IMO. He has OPS'd over .800 two years in a row. I would still take Ramirez and Rolen ahead of him. Berkman should be higher.

 

To me the Cubs come down to a couple keys:

1. Starting pitching - Zambrano and Garza in particular

2. Bullpen has to be much better than last year

3. Health of the other teams in the division

4. Soto

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I don't think the Cubs match up well with the Reds, Cards and Brewers. At this point I think this is a 75 win team. Relying on Zambrano is risky. Other than Marmol and Marshall the bullpen is a question mark. The Cubs need down years or injuries to three teams in their division to compete and I don't see that happening. I sincerely hope the team is out of it by ASB and ships Zambrano to the Red Sox for prospects. Hendry is trying to save his job this year but I think he should be setting up for a strong run in 2012.

For me it comes down to offense and health. I think the Cubs starting pitching is on par with every team in the NL except San Fransisco and Philly.

 

The Cubs are a team needing to catch lightning in a bottle (sorry for the cliche) and hope some older guys rebound (Pena and Aramis) and stay healthy.

 

Even with the starting pitching I don't like their chances of finishing above .500 let alone winning the division.

 

I really want them to tank early or come out hot and stay that way. I don't want to see them hovering around .500 "with a shot" around trade deadline time.

[johnbriggs12]

Cub Fan Dan,

 

On one line you say Brewers could experience a slight decline offensively, then you pick them 4th saying they'll have big decline. Which is it?

 

In pointing to Hart and Weeks falling off, I notice you don't mention that both Fielder and Braun combined for 21 HR and 69 RBI fewer in 2010 than they did in 2009. If McGehee and Hart falloff (certainly not a given), isn't there just as great a chance that Braun and Fielder bounce back?

 

And what's with Brewers bullpen 4th? I'll take Loe (2.78), Saito (2.83), Braddock (2.94) and Axford (2.48. 24 of 27, 8-2 record) over any of the other three teams' core.

[dew1679666265]

I think Marcum is way too low personally.

 

Who does he go ahead of? Arroyo I could see, but the rest are right around as good as Marcum (Cueto, Z, Garza) or better (everybody else).

 

Other than moving him ahead of Arroyo, I have no problem with where he is. Dempster and Garza should be flipped, though, and I'd put Z ahead of him as well (if for no other reason than Zs bat).

 

I'd go:

 

1. Wainwright

2. Gallardo

3. Greinke

4. Carpenter

– gap –

5. Dempster

6. Zambrano

7. Garza

8. Cueto

9. Marcum

10. Garcia

 

Top 4 are pretty interchangeable.

[dew1679666265]

That's a poor way to judge offense. The difference between Pujols, Votto and Fielder versus Pena is a lot larger than the difference between say Castro and Renteria.

 

It depends on improvement and declines for Castro, Pena and Renteria.

 

Pena has been a 3-4 WAR guy before last year and Fielder has been anywhere from a 3 WAR guy to a 7 WAR guy. If Pena can get back to his 2008/2009 levels, he'll probably be within 1-2 WAR of Fielder, if not even with him.

 

Castro was a 2.0 WAR guy last year and if he can improve on the rookie season (questionable, I understand), then he probably becomes 2+ WAR better than Renteria (1.3 WAR last year at 35). They could also be similar in WAR if Castro holds where he was last year and Renteria doesn't drop, though.

 

I'd also take Berkman over Fukudome and Colvin this season.

 

Depends on how playing OF defense and age affect Berkman's numbers. Definitely possible, but I'd probably bet on the Fuku/Colvin platoon being better.

 

I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that Garza is the Cubs best starter either or that Greinke is better than Carpenter.

 

I agree on Garza, both Dempster and Z are better right now than him. He has the most potential going forward due to age, though. I tend to agree on Greinke over Carpenter because of age and injury concerns. If you're looking at who's produced more in the past, Carpenter no doubt. But Carpenter's age and history of injury makes me prefer Greinke going forward.

 

That said, if you want to put Carpenter ahead of Greinke, I'd hardly argue.

[dew1679666265]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Cubs win 90+. I wouldn't be surprised if they win 75, either.

 

This is pretty much how I feel.

[Northside Blues]

I'm not sure how so many of you are barely putting Jaime Garcia in the top ten of pitchers in the NL Central, if at all. For what it's worth:

 

2011 NLC Pitchers by ERA in 2010 (sub 4.50)

1. 2.42 Adam Wainwright, STL

2. 2.70 Jaime Garcia, STL

3. 3.22 Chris Carpenter, STL

4. 3.33 Carlos Zambrano, CHC

5. 3.51 Travis Wood, CIN

7. 3.64 Johnny Cueto, CIN

8. 3.64 Shaun Marcum, MIL

9. 3.84 Yovani Gallardo, MIL

10. 3.85 Ryan Dempster, CHC

11. 3.88 Bronson Arroyo, CIN

12. 3.91 Matt Garza, CHC

14. 4.09 Tom Gorzelanny, CHC

15. 4.17 Zack Greinke, MIL

16. 4.22 Carlos Silva, CHC

17. 4.26 Randy Wells, CHC

18. 4.46 Homer Bailey, CIN

 

FIP

1. 2.86 Adam Wainwright

2. 3.02 Yovani Gallardo

3. 3.34 Zack Greinke

4. 3.41 Jaime Garcia

5. 3.42 Travis Wood

8. 3.69 Chris Carpenter

9. 3.71 Carlos Zambrano

10. 3.74 Shaun Marcum

11. 3.75 Carlos Silva

12. 3.92 Tom Gorzelanny

13. 3.93 Randy Wells

14. 3.97 Johnny Cueto

15. 3.99 Ryan Dempster

18. 4.22 Chris Naverson

19. 4.42 Matt Garza

 

Jaime Garcia is certainly one of the top five or so in the division. The scary thought is that while he played great last season and a drop in production would be likely, another thing to consider is that he missed almost all of 2009 with TJS, so 2010, CB and command wise, could have been poor for him. There's room for growth in those two areas. He may not experience much of a drop.

[Northside Blues]

It depends on improvement and declines for Castro, Pena and Renteria.

 

I was making that comment as a reason why this type of analysis is worthless, not a statement of analysis of the difference between Castro and Renteria.