Comparing the NL Central

[toonsterwu]

It's a fun way to look at things, but it doesn't really look at fit for the personnel. Right now, my biggest concern for the 2011 Cubs is the top of the order. We're looking at some combination of Castro and ... Baker/DeWitt? Not exactly a great top of the order, and so the question becomes, how does this impact the rest of the lineup?

 

On the pitching side, I'm fairly pleased. While I would rate the Cardinals and Brewers rotations easily ahead of us (I'd go Brewers ahead of Cardinals, on paper, but it seems like a lot of you would go the other way), the Cubs potentially have 4 guys who can log 180-200 innings, which will ease the burden on the pen. This could allow us to baby Cashner in the 5th spot (or perhaps the better move is to have him start at Iowa, see if you can get some early success from Silva (assuming Gorzelanny is gone before spring) and deal Silva and bring up Cashner around June). The pen should be fine, on paper. Marshall, Wood, Marmol from the 7th-9th in close games is fine ... on paper. If our starters work deep enough, the burden on the middle relief becomes significantly lessened.

 

I think Pena will probably have a solid year, particularly on the power front.

 

Right now, I'm thinking that the Cubs are an 80-85 win club. If the top of the order is stabilized, I could perhaps see a better season than that.

[davell]

I think Marcum is way too low personally.

 

Who does he go ahead of? Arroyo I could see, but the rest are right around as good as Marcum (Cueto, Z, Garza) or better (everybody else).

 

Other than moving him ahead of Arroyo, I have no problem with where he is. Dempster and Garza should be flipped, though, and I'd put Z ahead of him as well (if for no other reason than Zs bat).

 

I'd go:

 

1. Wainwright

2. Gallardo

3. Greinke

4. Carpenter

– gap –

5. Dempster

6. Zambrano

7. Garza

8. Cueto

9. Marcum

10. Garcia

 

Top 4 are pretty interchangeable.

 

 

Yeah, you're right. I'd put Marcum ahead of Z, Garza, Cueto, and Arroyo, but he's definitely in that same tier even if I did put him higher and I fully admit that it's debatable as to me putting him higher than those others, which is why you said they're all in the same tier.. In the end, I guess that I'd rather try judging an overall staff differently than how this was laid out.

[dew1679666265]

It depends on improvement and declines for Castro, Pena and Renteria.

 

I was making that comment as a reason why this type of analysis is worthless, not a statement of analysis of the difference between Castro and Renteria.

 

I don't think it's necessarily always worthless, but it's certainly not the most scientific way to do things. It's still interesting to read. I was just pointing out that your stated reasoning why it was worthless might be flawed.

[dew1679666265]

I'm not sure how so many of you are barely putting Jaime Garcia in the top ten of pitchers in the NL Central, if at all. For what it's worth:

 

Jaime Garcia is certainly one of the top five or so in the division. The scary thought is that while he played great last season and a drop in production would be likely, another thing to consider is that he missed almost all of 2009 with TJS, so 2010, CB and command wise, could have been poor for him. There's room for growth in those two areas. He may not experience much of a drop.

 

I thought strongly about putting him higher and might should have. Him only having one really strong year (granted his only full season) kept him lower, but he could jump up my list very quickly if he continues anything like he did last year.

[dew1679666265]

It's a fun way to look at things, but it doesn't really look at fit for the personnel. Right now, my biggest concern for the 2011 Cubs is the top of the order. We're looking at some combination of Castro and ... Baker/DeWitt? Not exactly a great top of the order, and so the question becomes, how does this impact the rest of the lineup?

 

It should be Fukudome leading off. Obviously it won't be if we trade him or start Colvin over him, but we shouldn't do that.

[Northside Blues]

I thought strongly about putting him higher and might should have. Him only having one really strong year (granted his only full season) kept him lower, but he could jump up my list very quickly if he continues anything like he did last year.

 

How many "really strong" years does Johnny Cueto have? Zero? Maybe one.

[dew1679666265]

I thought strongly about putting him higher and might should have. Him only having one really strong year (granted his only full season) kept him lower, but he could jump up my list very quickly if he continues anything like he did last year.

 

How many "really strong" years does Johnny Cueto have? Zero? Maybe one.

 

None, though last year was a very Garza-esque season. The difference between the 7-10 spots in my list are pretty minimal and if you wanted to put Garcia ahead of all of them, I wouldn't argue it. With just the one season, I don't think he jumps Z, Dempster or any of the top four guys. Though he could soon.