Re: Bears game 10: Thursday Nov. 18 at MIA on NFLN

[UMFan83]

The likliest scenario for a 10 win season would be

 

@ Miami - W

v. Philly - L

@ Detroit - W

vs. Patriots - L

@ Vikings - W

vs. Jets - W

@ Packers - L

 

But I find it hard to believe we are going to win in the dome. We never ever do. The only time we've done it since I think 2001 was in 2006, our 13-3 year. And in that game we probably should have lost if it weren't for Tommie Harris making a game saving strip of the ball. At that point in the game, there was 3 minutes left in the game and the ball was near midfield. Even then they still needed Grossman to get them a TD on that drive, which he did.

 

Anyways, if we can find a way to go 2-1 at home and 2-2 on the road (where our 3 easiest remaining opponents are), we'll get our 10 wins and likely a playoff spot.

[UMFan83]

The question is whether we have to win the North to make the playoffs. Glancing at the schedules of the teams in the South and the East it kind of looks that way. It'll be hard to knock Philly, NYG, Atlanta, or NO out of the wild card spots. Even Tampa Bay's schedule is pretty easy from here on out.

 

Yeah the challengers for the 2 wild card spots are 1) Loser of east race (NYG/PHI), 2) the 2 losers in the south race (ATL/NO/TB), and 3) the loser of the north race (CHI/GB). At this point I don't think anyone else can really contend unless they get really hot, as all the teams mentioned above are 6-3 or better, and there are no 5-4 teams in the NFC besides Seattle (who is 1st in West). So it will be 4 teams fighting for 2 spots. I gotta think Philly and NO are looking the best right now (without viewing everyone's schedules). But if one falters the Packers/Bears loser is looking better.

 

2 keys for the Bears in this race are:

1) They've already lost the tie-breaker to the NYG, and have a chance to win or lose the tie-breaker with Philly next week.

2) They currently have the worst conference record of all of the WC contenders at 5-3 (or NFC contenders in general). They have also played the most conference games of all of them, so there are chances for the other teams to lose conference games, especially in the South as I'm assuming they all have to play each other again. So that tiebreaker is far from decided, but right now the Bears are trailing.

Edited November 16, 2010 by UMFan83

[SpongeWorthy]

Here's GB's schedule:

 

@ Minnesota

@ Atlanta

vs. San Francisco

@ Detroit

@ New England

vs. NY Giants

vs. Chicago

 

That's 4 road games in the next 5 weeks. Luckily they get @ Minnesota while they still have something to play for. If Minny wins, great, if they lose they'll be in surrender mode for the rest of the season and the bad blood will be through the roof before we play them. Playing in Atlanta is great for the Bears, the Falcons don't lose at home.

[Banedon]

That Philly game could be important for playoff seeding, presuming we get there.

 

I'm mildly amused that if the playoffs started today, GB would be out due to tiebreakers.

[rawaction]

Eh, the schedule isn't that bad. Who knows what to expect from the Vikings by this time next month when the Bears go there? Detroit's not very good. New England is very beatable. They put a whooping on the Steelers, but I think the Bears matchup well vs. their passing game. They've been leaning heavy on TEs and slot WRs and the Bears strength vs. the pass has been DJ Moore on the slot and the LBs/Manning on TEs (other than Finley who is a beast). The Jets are a much tougher matchup.

 

I'd really like to take this week's game, because 7-3 would go a long way to being a playoff team. The Eagles game though is the big one. The Bears have no tiebreakers thanks to losses to the Giants, Redskins and Seahawks. Lose to the Eagles and they've lost all potential head-to-head with the wildcards (don't play TB, NO, or ATL). Plus, the Eagles play the Giants twice down the stretch and if the Eagles sweep, the Bears win over the Eagles would compensate for the Bears loss vs. the Giants. If the Giants sweep the Eagles, they are likely going to be out of it anyway when you include them losing to the Bears.

 

Make sense?

[UMFan83]

Sweet, the Bears moved from 19 all the way up to 17 in ESPN's latest power rankings.

 

Wait what? Are you kidding me?

 

So let me get this straight...

 

The Bears lose to the Redskins and drop from 12 to 15. OK that sounds right.

The next week they have a bye and drop from 15 to 17. Hmmm...

The very next week they beat the Bills and drop from 17 to 19.

Then last week they beat up on the Vikings and rise from 19 to 17.

 

So in the past 3 weeks the Bears have played 2 games and won both of them and dropped 2 spots in the rankings.

 

Here are some of the teams ahead of the Bears in the rankings.

 

Buccaneers (6-3, 11th) - AKA the only 6-3 team with a negative point differential and less impressive victories than the Bears

 

Raiders (5-4, 12th) - Rising team for sure but...I mean they don't exactly play in the strongest division

 

Titans (5-4, 13th) - I've liked the Titans all year, but its still hard to put a team with a worse record and nothing to justify the worse record ahead.

 

Dolphins (5-4, 14th) - They are on their 3rd string QB. Come on guys! Nice win over Tennessee though.

 

Chiefs (5-4, 15th) - This team is in a free fall right now. But not a far enough fall to be worse than the Bears

 

Chargers (4-5, 16th) - Look I know the Chargers are better than the Bears most likely. They have great numbers everywhere but their standings. But when they adjust according like with wins, feel free to boost them right up to the top. It's an insult to see a 4-5 team ranked higher than a 6-3 team.

 

Thank God we are at least higher than the Texans and Jags who are immediately behind the Bears.

[UMFan83]

Mike Sando is the one that skewed these results, voting the Bears 21st. The other 3 voted them 12th, 13th, and 17th. He has the Bears below Jacksonville, Houston, Seattle and St. Louis in his rankings. So he has the Bears below every 5-4 team, and every 4-5 team except Washington, who beat the Bears 3 weeks ago. So he thinks the Bears are comperable with 6 different teams with negative point differentials. No surprise, Sando is the NFC West blogger, and sneaks 2 of his crappy NFC West teams above the Bears in his rankings. I'm surprised he didn't find a way to sneak SF and Arizona ahead of the Bears too.

[jersey cubs fan]

I can't complain about 17 overall and somebody ranking them 21st isn't outlandish. This team is far from a proven contender. They should get punished for those losses to Seattle and Washington. I'd probably have them more like 14-15, but I can see 17.

[Banedon]

According to the "How They Voted" blog...

 

Agree to disagree: The Chicago Bears generated the biggest gap between highest and lowest votes. Kuharsky had them 12th. I had them 21st. The Bears are 6-3, but five of their victories came against the Vikings, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys and Lions. The Bears and five other teams teams produced high-low disparities of at least six places.

[sneakypower]

of those teams, the Bucs and the Chiefs should be lower than the Bears, and everybody in the NFCW, if they're not

[UMFan83]

According to the "How They Voted" blog...

 

Agree to disagree: The Chicago Bears generated the biggest gap between highest and lowest votes. Kuharsky had them 12th. I had them 21st. The Bears are 6-3, but five of their victories came against the Vikings, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys and Lions. The Bears and five other teams teams produced high-low disparities of at least six places.

 

That's fine, we play who is on the schedule. And we've won 6 of the 9 games. We haven't destroyed anyone besides Carolina and sort of Minnesota, but we also haven't been blown out either. We lost to the Giants by 11 when we lost our starting QB for half the game, and we had a couple of bad losses to the Seahawks and Redskins, both by 3 points. We also have the 2nd best scoring defense in the league so far this year.

 

Look at these 2 resumes

 

Team 1

Record: 6-3

Record +500 teams: 1-1

Losses by 12+ points: 0 (yeah statistical bias, I don't care)

Wins by 12+ points: 2

Point differential: +29

 

Team 2

Record: 6-3

Record +500 teams: 0-3

Losses by 12+ points: 2

Wins by 12+ points: 1

Point differential: -18

 

Which team would you vote 11th and wh ich team would you vote 21st like Sando did?

 

that's the worst thing, he purposely justifies his Bears at 21st pick by saying 5 of our 6 wins were against under .500 teams when the Bucs haven't beaten ANYONE with an over .500 record. The ONLY thing the Bucs have on us is that all of their losses have come to contenders, while we have 2 bad losses. But we also have a 1-1 record against contenders. Everyone has bad losses every season.

[Banedon]

The NFL has moved the Eagles' Nov. 28 matchup with the Chicago Bears to 4:15 p.m. ET.

[rawaction]

Everyone has bad losses every season.

 

Exactly.

 

Baltimore lost to the Bengals

Pittsburgh got blown out at home vs. NE.

NE lost to Cleveland.

Packers lost to Miami at home and vs. Washington

Giants just lost to the Cowboys

Saints lost to Arizona and Cleveland

[Soul]

There's only one thing for sure: we'll play all the games, and then we will know :)

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears coach Lovie Smith said he couldn't say enough about the health of his team. A glance on the practice field Tuesday backed his words.

 

Every Bears player appeared to be practicing as the team began on-field preparation for Thursday night's game at Miami. Center Olin Kreutz seemed fine coming off a hamstring injury, while receiver Johnny Knox's ankle injury didn't look like much of a factor, at least not at the start of practice.

 

Devin Hester (shoulder), Rashied Davis (quad) and Zack Bowman (foot) all were practicing with minor bumps and bruises.

 

We will see if any of them were limited when the full practice report is released after practice.

[UMFan83]

I'm setting the o/u on Bears players leaving the game on Thursday due to injuries at 4.5.

[Magnetic Curses]

my humble suggestion is to put hester on kickoff return duties again.

[JonJayCutler]

Personally I love the lack of respect the Bears are getting. Let them hate because it only fuels our players, especially our defense.

 

They all said the same thing back in 2006. That we were no good and that we'd be one and done again because there was no way Rex Grossman could lead a team deep into the playoffs. Well he led us to the Super Bowl and played pretty damn well in both home playoff games.

 

So let them hate. I mean, is this a Super Bowl team? Probably not. But is this a playoff team? It might very well be.

[Guest]

I would rate the Chargers ahead of the Bears too.

[bukie]

My totally subjective NFC rankings through the latest week of games:

 

1. Atlanta

2. NY Giants

3. New Orleans

4. Philly

5. Green Bay

 

-- Huge Gap --

 

6. Bucs

7. Seahawks

8. Bears

 

-- Another huge gap --

 

9. Vikings

10. Redskins

11. Cowboys

12. 49ers

13. Lions

14. Rams

15. Cardinals

16. Panthers

 

Hard to separate the last 8 at this point, but there seems to be a clear separation between the top 8 and the bottom 8, for now.

[bukie]

As far as the AFC:

 

1. Patriots

2. Steelers

3. Ravens

4. Colts

5. Jets

 

-- Gap --

 

6. Titans

7. Chargers

8. Raiders

9. Chiefs

 

-- Gap --

 

10. Jaguars

11. Browns

12. Texans

13. Dolphins

14. Broncos

 

-- Gap --

 

15. Bengals

16. Bills

[Soul]

Personally I love the lack of respect the Bears are getting.

 

I always prefer this.

[Wilson A2000]

My totally subjective NFC rankings through the latest week of games:

5. Green Bay

 

-- Huge Gap --

 

6. Bucs

7. Seahawks

8. Bears

 

There is not a huge gap between the Packers and Bears. The Bears beat them when they were healthy. I actually think the Bears are slightly better.

[bukie]

My totally subjective NFC rankings through the latest week of games:

5. Green Bay

 

-- Huge Gap --

 

6. Bucs

7. Seahawks

8. Bears

 

There is not a huge gap between the Packers and Bears. The Bears beat them when they were healthy. I actually think the Bears are slightly better.

A 3 point win at home in a game where both teams were well negative in DVOA is hardly convincing evidence. Objectively the gap is bigger than I'm giving them credit for.

[BigSlick]

i dunno guys, maybe i should feel nervous about this, but i really like our defense against tyler thigpen, if we don't get a couple picks, i'd be pretty shocked

 

and its strength vs. strength here, they like to run the ball, we are good at stopping the run. as long as our o-line doesn't lose their minds again, i think we should control this game and win it, maybe not easily, but definitely take it in control.

 

of course the bears are great at letting me down once i have confidence in them