2010-2011 Chicago Bulls Thread

[Soul]

Now I'm officially having a bad day.

 

This sucks.

[David]

Now I'm officially having a bad day.

 

This sucks.

 

It'll be fine. I'd expect it to cost us 3ish games. Nothing devastating.

[bukie]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

[jersey cubs fan]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

 

That's not really worse case scenario.

[bukie]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

 

That's not really worse case scenario.

Assuming the surgery goes as planned, the maximum anticipated recovery time is 10 weeks. I don't think Noah is 25% better than last year, personally, and I think Gibson is better than last year. Of course, further injuries would be worse, but this is a reasonable worst case scenario.

[SouthSideRyan]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

 

What about the dropoff from Gibson to Asik? And Asik to Scalabrine?

[jersey cubs fan]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

 

That's not really worse case scenario.

Assuming the surgery goes as planned, the maximum anticipated recovery time is 10 weeks. I don't think Noah is 25% better than last year, personally, and I think Gibson is better than last year. Of course, further injuries would be worse, but this is a reasonable worst case scenario.

 

The problem is your literal interpretation in the dropoff of WAR. That isn't how it works.

[David]

FWIW, Noah has been playing pretty crappily for a little while now and the Bulls have still been clowning on the L.

[Flames24Rulz]

FWIW, Noah has been playing pretty crappily for a little while now and the Bulls have still been clowning on the L.

 

And again, these next few weeks should be a breeze. It sucks but I'd much rather see Noah healthy in the second half of the season rather than fight through an injury that could obviously hamper how effective he is.

[David]

Yep.

 

Mainly, I'm just worried about losing his help de.

 

And I'm worried about facing Amare on Christmas.

[bukie]

The last two years, Noah has been worth approximately 8 wins above replacement level over a full season. Let's generously say he's technically improved to be worth 10 wins overall this year.

 

Taj Gibson, on the other hand, was worth abour 4 wins above replacement last year. For the case of being conservative, let's say he hasn't improved at all, and he's worth 4 wins this year.

 

So, the dropoff from Noah to Gibson is 6 wins over the course of a season. If Noah is out 10 weeks, which is the worst case scenario reported, he'd miss all games through the end of February, a total of 34 games. pr about 40% of the season.

 

So, worst case scenario, this injury costs the Bulls about 2.5 wins over 10 weeks, if Noah was 25% better this year and Gibson didn't improve at all.

 

What about the dropoff from Gibson to Asik? And Asik to Scalabrine?

Noah was currently averaging about 37 minutes per game. Gibson (since Boozer returned) has been averaging about 20 minutes. I would expect at least 25 of those Noah minutes will be taken on by Gibson and additional Boozer minutes (he's been averaging about 28 minutes since his return). The bulk of the additional minutes will be given to Asik (if he can stay on the court, that is), leaving maybe 5-7 minutes for a replacement level player (Scalabrine/Thomas/guy off the street).

 

Factoring those all in, the estimated effect increases to....about 2.7 wins. So, I really don't expect more than a 3 win difference over 10 weeks, and that's with a conservative estimate.

[SpongeWorthy]

My biggest concern is Noah getting lazy in the next couple months because he can't play and returning to the form of his first couple seasons.

[davell]

This sucks, but we should be OK for a while. If he's actually out 10 weeks and you put his return at March 1, he'll miss 34 games.

 

Out of those 34 games, there will be 8 back to backs as well.

 

The schedule though, is pretty soft honestly. The only road games we play against teams that are playoff caliber are against the Knicks, Trailblazers, Jazz, and Hornets. We do have a 5 game West Coast trip during this stretch, including the last 3 teams I mentioned in a row.

 

We have home games against the Celtics, Heat(twice), Magic, Mavs, and Spurs. 18 home total, versus 16 on the road. We even have a nice 6 game home stretch right before the West Coast swing.

 

Basically, if we can stay healthy during this stretch without Noah, I'd still expect us to go 20-14 at the WORST during this time frame. Not perfect, but probably solid enough for us to still finish 4th overall in the East.

[Wilson A2000]

Even though he retired, Rasheed Wallace anyone?

[17 Seconds]

am i the only one that thinks asik is going to surprise some people?

[17 Seconds]

Even though he retired, Rasheed Wallace anyone?

 

apparently he recently told thibodeau that he wants a job. i also read somewhere yesterday that the bulls supposedly have kicked around the idea

[UMFan83]

Even though he retired, Rasheed Wallace anyone?

 

I want to slap anyone on realgm that suggests that. Wallace is the exact opposite of the player he'd be replacing. He's old and treats the regular season like Rec league ball at the Y. No fing way.

[bcl412]

am i the only one that thinks asik is going to surprise some people?

 

I think he can excel on the defensive end with a little work. I don't see him doing anything offensively though.

[UMFan83]

am i the only one that thinks asik is going to surprise some people?

 

I've read stuff about how much difficulty he has had adjusting to NBA style ball mostly on offense. That said I've liked what I've seen out of him. I don't think he'll ever be starter quality but he has the talent to be a nice role player that can give you 20-25 solid minutes a night. It's not ideal to give him that now though. And it's almost impossible for him to get that many minutes because as of now he's a fouling machine.

 

For now I think he will show flashes of solid play.

[Wilson A2000]

Even though he retired, Rasheed Wallace anyone?

 

I want to slap anyone on realgm that suggests that. Wallace is the exact opposite of the player he'd be replacing. He's old and treats the regular season like Rec league ball at the Y. No fing way.

 

I hear ya, but sometimes you have to make moves that end up helping the team even if that guy has an attitude problem. The Bulls are an easy team to love (http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/columns/story?columnist=wilbon_michael&id=5921192) beacuse they are unselfish and don't have that one guy who acts like a turd and brings you bad pub. I would give the new rotation a few games and see how they respond. But I would also tell Wallace to start getting in shape just in case.

[SouthSideRyan]

Even though he retired, Rasheed Wallace anyone?

 

apparently he recently told thibodeau that he wants a job. i also read somewhere yesterday that the bulls supposedly have kicked around the idea

 

Stop trying to steal my heroes

[17 Seconds]

i still think we win 50 games, barring any other significant injuries (knocking on wood).

 

50-32, a 4 seed, and noah on fresh legs for the postseason sounds pretty nice

[Cubbies622]

Per Rotoworld ala Charlotte Observer:

The Bobcats have been gauging the trade value of Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, among others.

 

Charlotte has reportedly contacted 15 or 20 teams, and Chicago and Detroit were described as "receptive."

Hmm Stephen Jackson I think may be an even better fit than Mayo and Smith. He hasn't seemed to have any issues the last few years and he is a guy who can score pretty easily. Gerald Wallace would be nice if we could get rid of Deng and put him at SF but I don't see that happening.

[UMFan83]

Would you give them back their 1st round pick in a trade for jackson?

[SpongeWorthy]

Definitely.

 

Jackson is crazy but he plays his ass off, can defend, shoot, and be a secondary ball handler. He'd be perfect.