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Re: Wow Castro

ScrubMD

By ScrubMD,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Northside Blues

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While we're at it Ronny Cedeno hit 10 homers once. Neifi did it twice and also hit 9 with the Cubs. Henry Blanco hit 10 once. Angel Pagan hit 11 last year. Jason Bartlett hit 14 once. Jerry Hairston JR has done it twice. There is a fairly good chance that Castro hits 10 homers this season. Now if he does it with any regularity is another question entirely. I'd expect him to be around 6-8 this season, giving him maybe a 1 in 8 chance of hitting double digits (also a similar chance of not reaching 5).
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Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

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What is it that has everyone convinced that power will be a bigger part of Castro's game? Just his build and the fact that he hasn't matured yet?

 

People keep wanting to compare him to Griffey and A-rod, but those guys were hitting 15-20 hrs a year in the minors at the same age Starlin was hitting 3.

pitchcs ACL Cubs

pitchcs

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Yeah he hit 3 homers in four days on May 1-4. He then hit 2 HR on May 13. His other two were on June 7th and June 29th.

 

 

Extremely specific Grandpa Theriot, thanks

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What is it that has everyone convinced that power will be a bigger part of Castro's game? Just his build and the fact that he hasn't matured yet?

 

People keep wanting to compare him to Griffey and A-rod, but those guys were hitting 15-20 hrs a year in the minors at the same age Starlin was hitting 3.

 

Well, I don't think anyone thinks Castro is going to be a 30+ HR guy like those two.

 

As to your question, hitting 31 doubles in 500 PA's in the big leagues at age 20, along with his swing and body type are pretty good indicators that he's going to hit more HR as he develops.

Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

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What is it that has everyone convinced that power will be a bigger part of Castro's game? Just his build and the fact that he hasn't matured yet?

 

People keep wanting to compare him to Griffey and A-rod, but those guys were hitting 15-20 hrs a year in the minors at the same age Starlin was hitting 3.

 

Well, I don't think anyone thinks Castro is going to be a 30+ HR guy like those two.

 

As to your question, hitting 31 doubles in 500 PA's in the big leagues at age 20, along with his swing and body type are pretty good indicators that he's going to hit more HR as he develops.

 

I think you and I are on the same page, but I seem to get the impression (maybe falsely) that people DO think he's going to consistently hit 30 hrs a year.

tfarks ACL Cubs

tfarks

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What is it that has everyone convinced that power will be a bigger part of Castro's game? Just his build and the fact that he hasn't matured yet?

 

People keep wanting to compare him to Griffey and A-rod, but those guys were hitting 15-20 hrs a year in the minors at the same age Starlin was hitting 3.

 

Well, I don't think anyone thinks Castro is going to be a 30+ HR guy like those two.

 

As to your question, hitting 31 doubles in 500 PA's in the big leagues at age 20, along with his swing and body type are pretty good indicators that he's going to hit more HR as he develops.

 

I think you and I are on the same page, but I seem to get the impression (maybe falsely) that people DO think he's going to consistently hit 30 hrs a year.

 

Where have you seen this? All the casual fans I know are just psyched that he hits .300.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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I don't think anyone is comparing Castro to A-Rod or Griffey. the only comparison between them is the fact they both made the mahor leagues at an extremely early age. He's not going to have their power, no question in my mind.

 

But, comparing him to Jeter IS a possibility offensively. He certainly can fill out and wind up with Jeter's power numbers. Some of those doubles will start clearing the fence, the question is when, not if, really. The reason for my question was basically to see who thought he'd make a pretty large jump immediately.

 

 

 

Here's John Sickels crystal ball on Castro's career. I could see him basically doing this as well.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/9/4/1668866/crystal-ball-starlin-castro

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I think most people's expectations top out at a ceiling of being a Derek Jeter type hitter (with less OBP).

 

But maybe I have been away from the board too long and missed the ramped up expectations at some point (to ARod territory - as if Jeter isn't ramped up enough).

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Guess I should've refreshed before I replied.
apete6 ACL Cubs

apete6

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I liked Castro until I found out he was going to hit 22 HR with the White Sox.

 

Yeah, I wonder what kind of death threats Castro will have to receive from Cubs fans to go the White Sox and then the Cardinals after a 13 year, 2000 hit stint with the Cubs. Maybe he is being predicted to make an error to lose the World Series or something.

Garwilly ACL Cubs

Garwilly

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I liked Castro until I found out he was going to hit 22 HR with the White Sox.

 

Yeah, I wonder what kind of death threats Castro will have to receive from Cubs fans to go the White Sox and then the Cardinals after a 13 year, 2000 hit stint with the Cubs. Maybe he is being predicted to make an error to lose the World Series or something.

 

The 7-peat had to come to an end eventually.

daske17 First Round Pick

daske17

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according to that Crystal Ball, for his next 10 years he'll average .297/.366/.438, and roughly a .353 wOBA (assuming league average ROE)

 

sign me up.

 

So basically Mark Grace with more speed?

NCCubFan MVP

NCCubFan

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Doesn't look like he's expected to come back very well after his injury that costs him almost the entire 2025 season with the Sox.
Cubs Fan Dan Draft Eligible

Cubs Fan Dan

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For some reason I think Castro will show his power earlier. Not expecting 20 homers or anything but I would not be shocked if he hits 8-10 this year and next.
ChiCubsFan ACL Cubs

ChiCubsFan

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according to that Crystal Ball, for his next 10 years he'll average .297/.366/.438, and roughly a .353 wOBA (assuming league average ROE)

 

sign me up.

 

So basically Mark Grace with more speed?

I'll take it at SS

Jazz ACL Cubs

Jazz

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how's his plate discipline developing? That's what i'm really concerned with. If he can get on base at a clip around .390+ then i won't really care about power deficiency
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Splendid Splinter

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how's his plate discipline developing? That's what i'm really concerned with. If he can get on base at a clip around .390+ then i won't really care about power deficiency

 

 

IMHO, the only way he's getting to .390+ OBP is if he hit .330+... I don't think he going to get like 70+ BBs consistently (might do it once or twice)... John Sickels projects him to be in the 50s consistently and a couple of 60s, which sounds about right for Castro. From looking at that crystal ball projection, Castro looks like a good bet for 55 BBs:85 Ks in his prime. I like to see the Ks to come down a little, but I'm not gonna argue with a 55:85 rate for a SS who hits .300 or so.

 

Power deficiency??? If you mean by HRs, then ok, but he's not gonna be that bad in HRs (compared to other SS). He'll be in the double digits and hopefully a couple of 20+ HRs season. I don't know if it's just me, but IMO, Castro is going to consistently hit a LOT of doubles. If he can consistently hit 35+ doubles with like 3-5+ triples, then I could care less if he hits only 12 HRs as his doubles/triples makes up for it. It's like with Fukudome in 2009, he had only 11 HRs, but he had 38 doubles and 5 triples. That was good for a IsoP of .162, which is pretty good if you ask me.

 

Castro last year had a IsoP of .108... If he can get his IsoP up to at least .120+ (Jeter career IsoP is .139 and top 2 seasons were .179/.203) and have a few .140+ seasons, then that's very good to great for a SS.

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