Re: Wow Castro

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't want to live in a world where Starlin Castro is considered less valuable than Scott Podsednik

 

Or a world where AA stats are less important than major league stats.

 

English.

[woodchip2153]

did anyone figure out why there is such a discrepancy between BR's WAR for Castro and fangraphs' WAR for Castro?

 

They use different defensive statistics which can sometime cause a difference. Tango's opinion

[sneakypower]

Dave Cameron's take on bb-ref vs. fangraphs WAR:

 

It's the same basic structure as ours, only with Total Zone instead of UZR for position players and a different approach to evaluating pitchers. I prefer ours in both scenarios. For years that you have UZR, Total Zone isn't that helpful, since it uses less information. For years that UZR isn't available, Total Zone has value.

[Careless]

I don't want to live in a world where Starlin Castro is considered less valuable than Scott Podsednik

 

Or a world where AA stats are less important than major league stats.

He's played more than half a season and has about a third of Pod's WAR on that. They're rating Podsednik higher on a per-game basis.

[illiniguy]

Since July 10, Cubs rookie Starlin Castro has more hits than any other player in baseball and is tied for the most doubles in the game since that date.

 

This was sent to me on my facebook page, from somewhere.

[Rob]

I wouldn't read too much into the Pods vs. Castro thing. It's all about which defensive stats they've chosen to use...

 

Pods comes in at -2 according to TZ, -8.2 according to UZR, and -13 according to BIS.

 

Castro comes in at -13 according to TZ, -1.7 according to UZR, and +5 according to BIS.

 

Using more data is always a good thing, so to get a better idea of what all three defensive systems are saying as opposed to just the one we can average em out and you have Pods at -7.7 and Castro at -3.2 as defenders. That's four and a half run advantage for Castro instead of an 11 run disadvantage. That's pretty huge.

[risico]

Castro is so young that it's hard and almost unfair to compare him with someone like Podsednik based on WAR.

 

The offensive numbers are similar right now but Castro's superior line drive rates and ISO show more offensive talent IMO.

 

The defensive numbers are all over the board depending on which metric you use. Castro's had his share of troubles with errors but anyone who watches him play can see that he's a talented defender.

[muntjack]

lol @ ESPN yet again. They have a "Rank 'Em: MLB Rookies" with 14 different choices. Starlin isn't one of them.

[Northside Blues]

my focus this year has turned to castro winning the batting title as the youngest player in the league....that would have to be a first. he's currently fifth in the league trailing carlos gonzalez by 12 points.wouldnt it be great if castro ruined an albert pujols triple crown? it would make this season somewhat of a success.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm actually hoping he does not win the batting title. It's the sort of random stat that could add to a player's resume/salary demands down the road, and I don't want to risk seeing him turn all batting average obsessed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm actually hoping he does not win the batting title. It's the sort of random stat that could add to a player's resume/salary demands down the road, and I don't want to risk seeing him turn all batting average obsessed.

 

*would insert picture of Sosa's 30-30 necklace here if I could find one*

[C.C.]

lol @ ESPN yet again. They have a "Rank 'Em: MLB Rookies" with 14 different choices. Starlin isn't one of them.

 

That doesn't seem possible.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm actually hoping he does not win the batting title. It's the sort of random stat that could add to a player's resume/salary demands down the road, and I don't want to risk seeing him turn all batting average obsessed.

So far in his career, he hasn't really shown an ability to have a high OBP unless it's tied to his average. I have no problem with him focusing on having a high batting average (considering his doubles power has actually increased during his hot streak), but I agree "First rookie to win a batting title" could end up really increasing his salary demands down the road.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm actually hoping he does not win the batting title. It's the sort of random stat that could add to a player's resume/salary demands down the road, and I don't want to risk seeing him turn all batting average obsessed.

So far in his career, he hasn't really shown an ability to have a high OBP unless it's tied to his average. I have no problem with him focusing on having a high batting average (considering his doubles power has actually increased during his hot streak), but I agree "First rookie to win a batting title" could end up really increasing his salary demands down the road.

 

It has been tied to his AVG, but not bad. He's had an IsoD around 50-60 most of the time, but in the second half of this year it's at 23. He's drawn 4 walks in the second half while pursuing the batting title. He's only struck out in 11.9% of PA and obviously he has been productive, but it's a little troubling to see him abandon any sense of patience. This second half streak is unsustainable, with .410 BABIP. The guy can't turn into a just put the ball in play guy and live up to expectations.

[C.C.]

2/3 so far today. .318

[Bull]

Up to .320.

 

But its a "soft" .320.

[sneakypower]

hardly

 

he's actually in the top-10 for all of baseball in frequency of doubles & triples hit. he's not hitting HR yet, but he's a skinny 20 year old, give it time. what's important is he's definitely showing a real XBH ability coupled with a high contact rate.

 

he's awesome.

[Bull]

hardly

 

he's actually in the top-10 for all of baseball in frequency of doubles & triples hit. he's not hitting HR yet, but he's a skinny 20 year old, give it time. what's important is he's definitely showing a real XBH ability coupled with a high contact rate.

 

he's awesome.

 

I agree 100%. It was a tongue in cheek reference to a thread which linked an article that listed him among the "worst" .300 hitters this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

waded through some of the pitch time stuff on fangraphs. he's rated as below-average against sliders and cutters but above average against everything else (fastball, changeup, curveball, splitter). he sees sliders more frequently than all but seven hitters, and also sees a lot of curveballs, so obviously he sees a lower number of fastballs than most of his peers.

 

as far as plate discipline, he swings at a relatively high number of pitches outside the zone (31.7% - by the way, vlad guerrero is just shy of 50%!), but oddly enough is a little below average at swinging at pitches in the zone (66%). as far as putting the ball in play, he's in the top 35 in making contact with pitches outside the zone (76.2%) and inside the zone (92.0%). he sees a high rate of strikes with first pitches of the AB (61%) and is just outside the top 35 in lowest percentage of swinging strikes (6.0%).

 

i suppose all of that confirms what we already knew, he needs to work on hitting sliders and needs to be a little more patient, but he's extremely good at hitting the ball when he does swing (esp. for a 20 year old). also, he reached the necessary # of PAs to be part of the batting title race a couple of days ago - he's third trailing carlos gonzalez (.331 - thank you coors) and votto (.323).

 

starlin's splits are kind of crazy: .355/.418/.485/.903 home and .276/.293/.389/.682 road. the weirdest part is the K/BB ratio: 23/20 at home and 35/4 on the road.

[shnsajax]

6 straight multi hit games now.

[muntjack]

Speaking of splits, CarGos are lol. 1.226 OPS at Coors, .729 on the road.

[Illini Iceman]

Why for the love of Dusty would Quade have him sacrifice with men on 1st and 2nd and no out today in the bottom of the eighth?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why for the love of Dusty would Quade have him sacrifice with men on 1st and 2nd and no out today in the bottom of the eighth?

 

I think statistically, 1st and 2nd, no outs with ordinary hitters both at-bat and on-deck, sac-ing is slightly better than batting in that situation.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Baseball reference says Starlin Castro is one of the worst .300 hitters this year

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7964

 

So they say he's the second worst .300 hitter this year, then admit that it's his fielding that's dragging his WAR down. So he's not really the 2nd worst hitting .300 hitter? Which, considering the mention his fielding too, means Young isn't the worst hitting .300 hitter?

 

Did I read that right?

 

I'm guessing it's worst overall player who happens to hit .300.

 

Do they take into consideration how many of these .300 hitters are 20 year olds who never played above AA before this season? Even if the power never developes, if he wants to keep racking up doubles and triples, Im OK with that.

 

starlin's splits are kind of crazy: .355/.418/.485/.903 home and .276/.293/.389/.682 road. the weirdest part is the K/BB ratio: 23/20 at home and 35/4 on the road.

 

So basically hes Hanley Ramirez at Wrigley and Ryan Theriot everywhere else. Interesting.

[Rob]

Why for the love of Dusty would Quade have him sacrifice with men on 1st and 2nd and no out today in the bottom of the eighth?

 

I think statistically, 1st and 2nd, no outs with ordinary hitters both at-bat and on-deck, sac-ing is slightly better than batting in that situation.

 

Run expectancy isn't much different with runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out versus 2nd and 3rd with one out. So even if you assume a successful sac bunt, you haven't really gotten anywhere. And there's still that chance to fail.