Jason Stark on the Cubs

[Banedon]

Going through teams to determine if they are an illusion or if what you see is reality...

 

Cubs (6-9, half game ahead of Astros in NL Central)

 

 

Rating: Reality

 

On one hand, there's way too much talent on this roster to think this is the kind of team the Cubs ought to be. On the other hand, there might not be a team in either league that has played this far below its talent level so far.

 

The only NL teams that have scored fewer runs are the Astros and Mets. The bullpen has a 6.14 ERA (and a 7.18 ERA if you subtract the closer, Carlos Marmol). Opponents are hitting .317 with runners in scoring position, second worst in the big leagues. The highest-paid hitter, Alfonso Soriano, has more errors (three) than homers (two). And the highest-paid pitcher, Carlos Zambrano, has a 7.45 ERA and just got rerouted to the bullpen. So these pieces sure don't seem to be fitting together the way they looked on the computer screen.

 

"That's not a good team," one NL scout said bluntly. "They're not a contender, not as constituted. They've got some good offensive players, but they've got no team speed. And they've got pretty good starting pitching, but that bullpen is terrible. So all teams have to do with the Cubs is just grind the starters down and get into that bullpen. And that's exactly what's been happening."

 

Team speed...that's the problem guys.

[erik316wttn]

I still say we need to get more left-handed leadoff guys who can catch the ball.

[soapy]

The obsession with the bullpen only two weeks into the season is maddening. Grabow isn't going to continue to have a 2+ WHIP and 15+ H/9 you psychos. Samardzija should be sent down for someone capable (Stevens?) and the remaining guys should get a chance to settle in.

 

But instead let's move one of our best starters to the bullpen because of one bad game.

[Tarver]

That's the best scout Stark could get to return his calls?

 

Team speed? I can only imagine if the NFL still lived in the same dark age that most MLB FO's seem to habitate.

[UMFan83]

All you have to do is ground down our starters. Sounds simple enough

[Tarver]

Grinderball

[MSG T]

Is the scout the one they fired for convincing Hendry signing Juan Pierre was a good idea?

[SouthSideRyan]

The more I read from anonymous scouts, the less I think of them. It's likely a selection bias as the crusty old men who nobody cares about anymore are dying to feel relevant by being quoted in a Stark column, but I just picture some 85 year old guy who judges a player by how firm his handshake is when I hear these things.

[soapy]

The more I read from anonymous scouts, the less I think of them. It's likely a selection bias as the crusty old men who nobody cares about anymore are dying to feel relevant by being quoted in a Stark column, but I just picture some 85 year old guy who judges a player by how firm his handshake is when I hear these things.

 

And the high butt. Don't forget that.

[Backtobanks]

Another example of the "experts" (aka idiots) weighing in. He writes that the Cubs really are that bad, but look at his comments about the White Sox:

 

 

White Sox (5-10, last place in AL Central)

 

 

Rating: Illusion

 

We don't see the White Sox winning this division. But they're not this bad.

 

They might have the best bullpen in baseball (1.89 opponent average, 65 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings), for one thing. And any rotation with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in it isn't going to have a 5.13 ERA all season. But this is an aging lineup, and one that currently has five regulars hitting under .229. And that's not as big an illusion as it appears.

 

"The record is an illusion, at least because of the division they play in," one scout said. "With the bullpen and rotation they run out there, they've got enough to stay in this race. But they may not be able to score enough runs to win it if they don't make a move someplace. They're going to need a bopper. A left-handed power bat is what they need. I'm not sure where they find that guy. But [GM] Kenny [Williams] always seems to come up with some kind of move."

 

 

This is a team counting on an everyday lineup including Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen,Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios to show enough offense to contend.

[Chicagocobs]

The scout focused on the bullpen, which is one of the larger problems for this team. I'm pretty anyone with an objective eye can see that. Slow players and relying on home runs sounds about right too.

[inari]

You despise the White Sox.

[Sammy Sofa]

The scout focused on the bullpen, which is one of the larger problems for this team. I'm pretty anyone with an objective eye can see that. Slow players and relying on home runs sounds about right too.

 

The speed of the players isn't making or breaking a team on its own.

 

The bullpen is indeed a problem 2 weeks into the season, but with a bullpen that young and with options as yet unused in the minors, NOBODY is going to have a firm grasp of what this bullpen is capable of right now, and probably won't for another month or so. An "objective" eye would recognize that. I'm not saying that the bullpen is necessarily better than what we've seen. It could be better, it could be this bad and, my God, it could be even worse. But we don't know right now, and Lou isn't going to make it very easy on us or him to figure it out.

Edited April 22, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[daske17]

The real headline should be:

 

Scouts make broad assumptions on limited results

[Banedon]

The real headline should be:

 

Scouts make broad assumptions on limited results

 

So do managers.

[Eephus Speed]

Another example of the "experts" (aka idiots) weighing in. He writes that the Cubs really are that bad, but look at his comments about the White Sox:

 

 

White Sox (5-10, last place in AL Central)

 

 

Rating: Illusion

 

We don't see the White Sox winning this division. But they're not this bad.

 

They might have the best bullpen in baseball (1.89 opponent average, 65 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings), for one thing. And any rotation with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in it isn't going to have a 5.13 ERA all season. But this is an aging lineup, and one that currently has five regulars hitting under .229. And that's not as big an illusion as it appears.

 

"The record is an illusion, at least because of the division they play in," one scout said. "With the bullpen and rotation they run out there, they've got enough to stay in this race. But they may not be able to score enough runs to win it if they don't make a move someplace. They're going to need a bopper. A left-handed power bat is what they need. I'm not sure where they find that guy. But [GM] Kenny [Williams] always seems to come up with some kind of move."

 

I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central.

[daske17]

The real headline should be:

 

Scouts make broad assumptions on limited results

 

So do managers.

 

Lou Piniella, we're looking at you...

 

I just meant for this article.

[Burtonbell]

So...we need Pierre back? Is that what we should get out of these scouts?

[Guest]

What do the teams below the Cubs in runs scored have in common? They all have more SB attempted than the Cubs, who are 8 of 9(league average: 10/13).

[Backtobanks]

Another example of the "experts" (aka idiots) weighing in. He writes that the Cubs really are that bad, but look at his comments about the White Sox:

 

 

White Sox (5-10, last place in AL Central)

 

 

Rating: Illusion

 

We don't see the White Sox winning this division. But they're not this bad.

 

They might have the best bullpen in baseball (1.89 opponent average, 65 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings), for one thing. And any rotation with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in it isn't going to have a 5.13 ERA all season. But this is an aging lineup, and one that currently has five regulars hitting under .229. And that's not as big an illusion as it appears.

 

"The record is an illusion, at least because of the division they play in," one scout said. "With the bullpen and rotation they run out there, they've got enough to stay in this race. But they may not be able to score enough runs to win it if they don't make a move someplace. They're going to need a bopper. A left-handed power bat is what they need. I'm not sure where they find that guy. But [GM] Kenny [Williams] always seems to come up with some kind of move."

 

I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central.

 

My point is that both Central divisions are weak and to say that the Cubs awful start is reality while the White Sox awful start is an illusion is idiotic. The WS have a strong starting rotation with a lineup that is close to being terrible. The Cubs have a very good rotation with a much stronger lineup (that is slumping). While the Cards are better than the Twins, I think the talent gap between the WS and Twins is greater than the gap between the Cards and Cubs.

[Eephus Speed]

Another example of the "experts" (aka idiots) weighing in. He writes that the Cubs really are that bad, but look at his comments about the White Sox:

 

 

White Sox (5-10, last place in AL Central)

 

 

Rating: Illusion

 

We don't see the White Sox winning this division. But they're not this bad.

 

They might have the best bullpen in baseball (1.89 opponent average, 65 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings), for one thing. And any rotation with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in it isn't going to have a 5.13 ERA all season. But this is an aging lineup, and one that currently has five regulars hitting under .229. And that's not as big an illusion as it appears.

 

"The record is an illusion, at least because of the division they play in," one scout said. "With the bullpen and rotation they run out there, they've got enough to stay in this race. But they may not be able to score enough runs to win it if they don't make a move someplace. They're going to need a bopper. A left-handed power bat is what they need. I'm not sure where they find that guy. But [GM] Kenny [Williams] always seems to come up with some kind of move."

 

I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central.

 

My point is that both Central divisions are weak and to say that the Cubs awful start is reality while the White Sox awful start is an illusion is idiotic. The WS have a strong starting rotation with a lineup that is close to being terrible. The Cubs have a very good rotation with a much stronger lineup (that is slumping). While the Cards are better than the Twins, I think the talent gap between the WS and Twins is greater than the gap between the Cards and Cubs.

 

I disagree with your last statement, but I don't want to go there. Regarding the blurb about the White Sox, it pretty much said the same thing you're saying. That their offense sucks, though probably not quite as bad as it may currently appear. And that they have a very talented rotation that is currently underachieving in a big way.

[XZero771679666304]

Another example of the "experts" (aka idiots) weighing in. He writes that the Cubs really are that bad, but look at his comments about the White Sox:

 

 

White Sox (5-10, last place in AL Central)

 

 

Rating: Illusion

 

We don't see the White Sox winning this division. But they're not this bad.

 

They might have the best bullpen in baseball (1.89 opponent average, 65 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings), for one thing. And any rotation with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in it isn't going to have a 5.13 ERA all season. But this is an aging lineup, and one that currently has five regulars hitting under .229. And that's not as big an illusion as it appears.

 

"The record is an illusion, at least because of the division they play in," one scout said. "With the bullpen and rotation they run out there, they've got enough to stay in this race. But they may not be able to score enough runs to win it if they don't make a move someplace. They're going to need a bopper. A left-handed power bat is what they need. I'm not sure where they find that guy. But [GM] Kenny [Williams] always seems to come up with some kind of move."

 

I don't see anything idiotic about that take on the White Sox and their chances of contending in a weak AL Central.

 

My point is that both Central divisions are weak and to say that the Cubs awful start is reality while the White Sox awful start is an illusion is idiotic. The WS have a strong starting rotation with a lineup that is close to being terrible. The Cubs have a very good rotation with a much stronger lineup (that is slumping). While the Cards are better than the Twins, I think the talent gap between the WS and Twins is greater than the gap between the Cards and Cubs.

 

I disagree with your last statement, but I don't want to go there. Regarding the blurb about the White Sox, it pretty much said the same thing you're saying. That their offense sucks, though probably not quite as bad as it may currently appear. And that they have a very talented rotation that is currently underachieving in a big way.

 

Yeah, top to bottom the Sox staff is potentially the best in baseball. Of course it's difficult to make any predictions regarding Peavy. I might agree with Banks about the talent gap if Nathan weren't hurt.

 

Of course your opinions regarding the Cards are slightly biased.

[kente777]

....but the Cubs are close to winning the World Series....

[UK1679666180]

The scout is right that they lack team speed, of course that isn't the reason why their record is worse than how they've played. They're again a feast or famine type of offense in which half of the games they've played they have scored 3 or less runs and you combine that with the worst pen in baseball and they can't win low scoring and close ballgames.

 

He's also right about teams being able to work Zambrano, Gorzelanny, and Dempster into deeper counts and climibing their pitch counts to get to the pen.

 

Of course, they're going about it all wrong as far as trying to improve the pen with Zambrano. He's been solid minus the 1st start and with Lou's lack of patience with the marginal arms that have already been called-up prob. doesn't want to see the arms more likely to be feast or famine with the better stuff but more likely to bb hitters as Parker and Stevens have mediocre control stats from the right side.

[ConstableRabbit]

Aramis isn't going to be this bad.

 

(I hope)