Fire Lou Piniella

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't give a [expletive] where he's at right now.

 

Oh, well, it's good to see you're taking such a rational approach to this.

[Guest]

Replacement level has nothing to do with contracts or salary. Soriano being merely "worth" his contract does not mean that he's at replacement level, which is the only conclusion I can draw from what you're saying here:

 

Even if you agree that those ridiculous fangraph dollar numbers are remotely meaningful (which they aren't), he's at replacement level right now just think where he will be in two years, let alone four.

 

As far as trends go, here's Soriano's WAR as a Cub.

 

2007: 6.9

2008: 4.4

2009: 0.0

2010 (pace): 4.5

[Tracer Bullet]

Yeah, Soriano is on pace to actually have earned his contract through the first 4 years. Which is both incredible considering how he's done it, and sad since he still has so many more years left, and the perpetually negative perception of his deal(compared to other horrible deals) makes it impossible to capitalize on.

 

It's only because he made less in the first couple years.

 

 

Don't pay attention to that fangraphs nonsense, their $ values are terribly skewed.

 

Agreed, but it's still ridiculous to say that he has almost negative value right now even if the Cubs picked up a good chunk of his contract.

 

but how much? I mean, obviously he's worth more than league minimum going forward. But how much of his contract would the Cubs have to pick up for another team to want him through the end of his contract?

 

I don't know. Probably at least half if they wanted to get a decent return. I think they could move him without paying that much, but then you would actually be getting a crappy return. Personally, I really don't think trading Soriano needs to be done or needs to be any kind of priority. They can eat the money as he gets older and crappier so long as they don't compound it with other bad contracts. This off season and the following are going to be critical to see if this team is actually moving in a new direction.

 

so you think if we offered Soriano to every team in the league with no cash included and asked for just any warm body in their organization, we'd have some takers? I'm surprised. I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

[Sammy Sofa]

so you think if we offered Soriano to every team in the league with no cash included and asked for just any warm body in their organization, we'd have some takers?

 

Oh, God, no.

[Guest]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

[abuck1220]

I understand it correclty. Last year he was at 0.0. I don't give a [expletive] where he's at right now. He plays terrible defense and he's back to hacking at balls and he's on the wrong side of 30. He's not getting better. Looking at averages is stupid for prediction purposes when his performance is trending in the wrong direction.

 

seems to me he's bounced back since last year and thus not trending in the wrong direction.

[Guest]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

So your contention is that only a handful of teams would take Soriano if they had to pay him absolutely nothing?

[Sammy Sofa]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

You're being ridiculous.

[abuck1220]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

that's absurd. you're saying ZERO national league teams (and most american league teams) would take him for $400,000 a year right now? ZERO.

[SouthSideRyan]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

Every team in baseball would take free Soriano for 4 years. And the Cubs would be the laughingstock of baseball (har har) for making such a stupid trade.

[Guest]

I understand it correclty. Last year he was at 0.0. I don't give a [expletive] where he's at right now. He plays terrible defense and he's back to hacking at balls and he's on the wrong side of 30. He's not getting better. Looking at averages is stupid for prediction purposes when his performance is trending in the wrong direction.

 

seems to me he's bounced back since last year and thus not trending in the wrong direction.

Let's wait until this year is over before we make that distinction.

[abuck1220]

I understand it correclty. Last year he was at 0.0. I don't give a [expletive] where he's at right now. He plays terrible defense and he's back to hacking at balls and he's on the wrong side of 30. He's not getting better. Looking at averages is stupid for prediction purposes when his performance is trending in the wrong direction.

 

seems to me he's bounced back since last year and thus not trending in the wrong direction.

Let's wait until this year is over before we make that distinction.

 

ok, we'll see if he finishes below 0.0 this year.

[Guest]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

that's absurd. you're saying ZERO national league teams (and most american league teams) would take him for $400,000 a year right now? ZERO.

That's what I'm saying. B/c it wouldn't just be for this year it would be for the remainder of his contract.

[Sammy Sofa]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

that's absurd. you're saying ZERO national league teams (and most american league teams) would take him for $400,000 a year right now? ZERO.

That's what I'm saying. B/c it wouldn't just be for this year it would be for the remainder of his contract.

 

And? They'd only be paying him $400k.

[abuck1220]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

that's absurd. you're saying ZERO national league teams (and most american league teams) would take him for $400,000 a year right now? ZERO.

That's what I'm saying. B/c it wouldn't just be for this year it would be for the remainder of his contract.

 

right. and you're saying NO team would give him a 4 year/$1.6 mil contract.

 

and you're absolutely wrong.

[SouthSideRyan]

I understand it correclty. Last year he was at 0.0. I don't give a [expletive] where he's at right now. He plays terrible defense and he's back to hacking at balls and he's on the wrong side of 30. He's not getting better. Looking at averages is stupid for prediction purposes when his performance is trending in the wrong direction.

 

seems to me he's bounced back since last year and thus not trending in the wrong direction.

Let's wait until this year is over before we make that distinction.

 

According to WAR, Soriano was exactly replacement level last year. He's already at 1.7 this year. What's your projection for him the rest of the season? 130/200/175 with 84 errors?

[UK1679666180]

Contact issues and plate discipline have always been Colvins problems, blaming his K rate on his playing schedule is a pretty weak excuse.

 

I never said I was blaming it on that, I'm saying it hasn't helped and it's going to stunt his development in those aspects if he cont's to play at this pace. Even at his current pace, he's on pace for about 50BBs if he rec'd 500ABs/550PAs which would be a career high (including minors).

 

He has the tools to merit finding out where he fits on a team with no chance of winning anything this year.

[Guest]

[ I can't see how anyone would want to pay what's left on his contract, even with the numbers he's put up so far this year. I'll admit it could be my bias b/c I hated his contract so much when we gave it to him.

They wouldn't want to pay anything. The question is would they take him period if they had to pay only the league minimum? I'm sure some teams would, but only one that (a) an American league team and (b) had zero better options now or for the forseable future.

 

that's absurd. you're saying ZERO national league teams (and most american league teams) would take him for $400,000 a year right now? ZERO.

That's what I'm saying. B/c it wouldn't just be for this year it would be for the remainder of his contract.

 

right. and you're saying NO team would give him a 4 year/$1.6 mil contract.

 

and you're absolutely wrong.

Not no team. It's impossible to know but I think it would only be a handful of teams.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd bet money that Soriano will make more than 1.6M/year in his next contract

[Guest]

I'd bet money that Soriano will make more than 1.6M/year in his next contract

When he's 38?

[Tracer Bullet]

right. and you're saying NO team would give him a 4 year/$1.6 mil contract.

 

and you're absolutely wrong.

Not no team. It's impossible to know but I think it would only be a handful of teams.

 

a handful of 30 teams

[abuck1220]

Not no team. It's impossible to know but I think it would only be a handful of teams.

 

only if these are really big hands.

[abuck1220]

i am amazed that you really think that if soriano was a FA at the end of this season, he would not get a contract that exceeded 1.6 mil.

[Guest]

Rob Neyer must be as crazy as me.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/3220/soriano-great-recession-easy-to-predict

 

He thinks it's 50/50 that the Cubs simply release Soriano. If that's the case we'll see who all those teams are that jump all over him.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, that stupid editorial has settled everything.