2010 Chicago Cubs (in your opinion)

[haubrich91]

I wanted to post this to get everyone's thoughts about the Chicago Cubs in 2010. What do you feel confident about? What are you scared of? What is our biggest need? What would you do if we're out of playoff contention at the Trading Deadline this year? How do you think we'll do? Barring any injuries this year (god forbid), do you think we can contend for the division and beyond?

 

Start the discussion!

[UMFan83]

I think that there is a decent chance this team could be a playoff contender, but also an equally decent chance the team blows and finishes in 3rd or 4th place. It seems like every year people are pessimistic they do good, while every year people are optimistic, they do bad. Meanwhile the year everyone had true mixed feelings about the team (2008) they won 97 games.

[dew1679666265]

Can we contend? Yes. Will we contend? Depends on a few things going our way.

 

I feel fairly confident about rebounds from Soto and Soriano and a healthier season out of Aramis – and those are three things this team will really need to contend. I think most of the rest of the lineup is pretty stable with the only guy who could fluctuate a lot being DLee. I don't think he'll be as good as last year, but I think he can give us another good year this season. Otherwise, I expect a solid improvement out of Fontenot, but likely a bit of a drop from Baker. Byrd and Fukudome should be similar to last year.

 

The pitching staff's top 3 (Z, Demp, Wells) should be fine. After that, I like the potential of a guy like Shark, but I'm not sure he's there yet. Marshall should be solid wherever they put him and I hope Gorz will pitch solidly. The rotation should be fine if Lilly comes back fully recovered.

 

The bench should be much better and I think the bullpen will be a little better. Overall, this team can really have a wide range of win totals, but I tend to think they'll settle into the 85-88 win range. Thus, I do think we can compete at least for the division if not more. As we've seen, teams can get hot in the postseason and we certainly have a solid 1-3 playoff rotation (assuming Lilly's health).

 

Should we be out of it by the deadline, however, I'd look to trade guys like Lilly, Aramis, Lee, Soriano and Theriot (assuming waving of NTCs/10/5 rights) to re-stock the farm a bit more and might consider guys like Fukudome and Z. The likelihood is that most wouldn't be moved, however, and the likelier avenue would be dealing guys like Theriot, Fontenot (if he's hitting well) and Dempster.

[Butterscup1679666578]

It will be a complete disaster.

[Post Count Padder]

There's a chance for a playoff run. But my gut tells me we finish in second place and miss the wild card. I just don't think the team is a whole lot better than last year.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think the team should be noticeably better than last year. The big three factors that seemed to dog the team for most of the season were Soriano playing hurt (and thusly crappy), Soto playing hurt/fat/unlucky and Aramis missing so much time. It is no way a lock that issues of similar impact won't hit this team again this year, and given how "old" this team is it wouldn't be surprising if it did, but it seems like Soto has a shot of having a good bounce back year given how much more in shape is and how unlucky a lot of his slump was last year. Couple that with at least either Soriano or Aramis not having years like year and offensively they should be in decent shape. Nothing spectacular, but workable.

 

In all I think it's a very average to maybe just above average team. It's baseball, so a team like this in a division like this has a shot. They've got a decent amount of appealing prospects for a critical trade before the deadline, so if they're in it and Ricketts is willing to potentially take on potentially a decent contract then stranger things have certainly happened.

[bcl412]

I think the offense will be better. I think last year was almost a worst case scenario for most players.

 

I am worried about the pitching but Rothschild seems to be decent at his job and seems to get pretty good production out of a lot of guys who aren't expected to be that good.

 

I think the best case scenario will be wild card and the worst case will be last year.

[XZero771679666304]

I think the team should be noticeably better than last year. The big three factors that seemed to dog the team for most of the season were Soriano playing hurt (and thusly crappy), Soto playing hurt/fat/unlucky and Aramis missing so much time. It is no way a lock that issues of similar impact won't hit this team again this year, and given how "old" this team is it wouldn't be surprising if it did, but it seems like Soto has a shot of having a good bounce back year given how much more in shape is and how unlucky a lot of his slump was last year. Couple that with at least either Soriano or Aramis not having years like year and offensively they should be in decent shape. Nothing spectacular, but workable.

 

In all I think it's a very average to maybe just above average team. It's baseball, so a team like this in a division like this has a shot. They've got a decent amount of appealing prospects for a critical trade before the deadline, so if they're in it and Ricketts is willing to potentially take on potentially a decent contract then stranger things have certainly happened.

 

And Dempster shouldn't be as distracted as he was in t he first half last year, we won't have the closer controversy in waiting to deal with, the pen should be better, and Aramis probably won't miss half the season (hopefully only a quarter of it). We should be better at 2B with a platoon, and hopefully Soriano not playing most of the season on a bad leg will help. And I have to believe Soto will be at least a bit better, and Marmol will be closer to Marmol than Ricky Vaughn. If Nady is healthy, I have to believe will help the OF overall. The Defense will probably be better overall as well. The bench looks to be much stronger as well, even if Tracy doesn't totally pan out.

 

On the downside, Lee probably won't be as good. Same with Wells. Harden is gone, but I don't think that will hurt us a much as some think.

 

I also have a feeling one more move is coming.

 

IMO, 85-88 wins is very realistic.

[Guest]

I'm assuming that we'll add one more solid reliever now and that we'll be able to make a move at the deadline to improve whatever primary weakness shows up.

 

90-92 wins, division crown, win one series, lose in the nlcs.

[treebird]

I'm assuming that we'll add one more solid reliever now and that we'll be able to make a move at the deadline to improve whatever primary weakness shows up.

 

90-92 wins, division crown, win one series, lose in the nlcs.

 

jesus christ would i ever take that in a heartbeat

 

i'm going with 81 wins.

[wvcbxl]

I'm assuming that we'll add one more solid reliever now and that we'll be able to make a move at the deadline to improve whatever primary weakness shows up.

 

90-92 wins, division crown, win one series, lose in the nlcs.

 

Not good enough.

Cubs go all the way. :oldbluekoolaid:

[Northside Blues]

I would say that we are in the lower to mid 80s with a small chance (1 in 10?) of breaking 90 but the same chance of failing to break 80. We are probably going to have poor offensive production up the middle, with the exception of Geovany Soto. I think our offense is middle of the range somewhere between 6th and 10th in the league. I think we still have a great front half of the rotation but Wells sucks and so does Gorzy. We don't have a legitimate top ten pitcher so the stinker at the end will cancel out Z and Dempster. Lilly is fine but a risk. Even if he is 100% we are just a hair better than average in the rotation. Our pen sucks so at best we have a league average pitchng staff and our defense sure as heck won't be helping them out too often. Putting everything together and that is a whole lotta average. Given that we play a slightly below average schedule I think that places us around 83-84 W's. Of course there's more potential there than most 84 win teams it's just asking for all the things to break right is asking for a lot. I've got the Cardinals pegged at 87-88 wins.

[champaignchris]

I'm a bit concerned about the rotation. If Lilly is slow coming back, Wells has a sophomore slump, and we can't find a 5th starter, it could get ugly. But that's a lot of ifs. More likely, we've got a solid starting staff.

 

Hopefully it won't take a quarter of the season to figure out the bullpen roles this year and it doesn't take Marmol half the season to figure out where the strike zone is.

 

I think Byrd and Nady are a step up from Bradley and Johnson. With Soriano rebounding at all the outfield should be improved. Hopefully Ram won't miss half the season again and Soto should rebound back to being at least an above average mlb catcher. We may still have a big black hole at 2nd, but with the improvements at other positions, it shouldn't be as noticeable.

 

Basically, if we get 120 games each of career average performances from Ram, Fonzie, and Nady, 30 starts and career average performances from Z, Lilly, and Dempster, and decent years from Mormol, Wells, and Soto we should be pretty good. First or second in the division and in contention for a playoff spot. Other than the fact that this is the Cubs we're talking about, there's no reason for all these things not to happen.

[Sammy Sofa]

I would say that we are in the lower to mid 80s with a small chance (1 in 10?) of breaking 90 but the same chance of failing to break 80. We are probably going to have poor offensive production up the middle, with the exception of Geovany Soto. I think our offense is middle of the range somewhere between 6th and 10th in the league. I think we still have a great front half of the rotation but Wells sucks and so does Gorzy. We don't have a legitimate top ten pitcher so the stinker at the end will cancel out Z and Dempster. Lilly is fine but a risk. Even if he is 100% we are just a hair better than average in the rotation. Our pen sucks so at best we have a league average pitchng staff and our defense sure as heck won't be helping them out too often. Putting everything together and that is a whole lotta average. Given that we play a slightly below average schedule I think that places us around 83-84 W's. Of course there's more potential there than most 84 win teams it's just asking for all the things to break right is asking for a lot. I've got the Cardinals pegged at 87-88 wins.

 

How do you know the pen sucks? Couldn't be because of last year, because they didn't suck then, either.

[Prizefight]

Can we contend? Yes. Will we contend? Depends on a few things going our way.

 

I feel fairly confident about rebounds from Soto and Soriano and a healthier season out of Aramis – and those are three things this team will really need to contend. I think most of the rest of the lineup is pretty stable with the only guy who could fluctuate a lot being DLee. I don't think he'll be as good as last year, but I think he can give us another good year this season. Otherwise, I expect a solid improvement out of Fontenot, but likely a bit of a drop from Baker. Byrd and Fukudome should be similar to last year.

 

The pitching staff's top 3 (Z, Demp, Wells) should be fine. After that, I like the potential of a guy like Shark, but I'm not sure he's there yet. Marshall should be solid wherever they put him and I hope Gorz will pitch solidly. The rotation should be fine if Lilly comes back fully recovered.

 

The bench should be much better and I think the bullpen will be a little better. Overall, this team can really have a wide range of win totals, but I tend to think they'll settle into the 85-88 win range. Thus, I do think we can compete at least for the division if not more. As we've seen, teams can get hot in the postseason and we certainly have a solid 1-3 playoff rotation (assuming Lilly's health).

 

Should we be out of it by the deadline, however, I'd look to trade guys like Lilly, Aramis, Lee, Soriano and Theriot (assuming waving of NTCs/10/5 rights) to re-stock the farm a bit more and might consider guys like Fukudome and Z. The likelihood is that most wouldn't be moved, however, and the likelier avenue would be dealing guys like Theriot, Fontenot (if he's hitting well) and Dempster.

 

+1

 

With reasonable bounce back seasons and injury projections. 85-88 sounds about perfect.

 

Of course a bad injury or two and we could be 74-75 win team real quick

[champaignchris]

How do you know the pen sucks? Couldn't be because of last year, because they didn't suck then, either.

 

I wouldn't go so far as "sucks," but they gave up way too many walks last year. Two of the main perpetrators - Heilman and Gregg - are gone, but Marmol and his 65 BB in 74 IP is back. If he can get his walk rate back to what it was in '07 and '08 he'll be fine. But right now, the scouting report on him should be, "Don't swing."

[rocket]

i see no reason why the cubs should be better than last year.

[Backtobanks]

I'll go along with the consensus that they should be a contending team. I do expect rebound seasons from Soriano, Soto, Marmol, and Zambrano. I think Byrd will be a pleasant surprise and Baker/Fontenot will be a solid platoon at 2B. The back end of the rotation could be a slight problem, but the bullpen will be outstanding. Obviously, there's no way to predict injuries, but the usual suspects (Soriano and Ramirez) seem to be covered by Nady and Baker/Tracy. I do get upset with so many posters predicting a serious digression by DLee and Wells. DLee continues to impress after recovering from his wrist/hand injury and I see no reason to expect less than a solid near-.900 ops from him. As for Wells, he did get enough action that teams saw him more than once, so there's no reason to think he can't pitch like last year. 85-90 wins and make the playoffs. After that it's a crapshoot.

[jersey cubs fan]

In my opinion they will win a little more than half the games they play.

[Sammy Sofa]

How do you know the pen sucks? Couldn't be because of last year, because they didn't suck then, either.

 

I wouldn't go so far as "sucks," but they gave up way too many walks last year. Two of the main perpetrators - Heilman and Gregg - are gone, but Marmol and his 65 BB in 74 IP is back. If he can get his walk rate back to what it was in '07 and '08 he'll be fine. But right now, the scouting report on him should be, "Don't swing."

 

Yeah, Marmol was walking way too many guys, but he really wasn't giving up the hits. Obviously I'd want to see that former come down, but in the big picture he was still very effective in ultimately keeping runs from scoring or guys getting hits, and he seemed to settle down once the closer's spot became his. You look at his 2nd half numbers last year and his walks nearly cut in half while his strikeouts stayed the same and the batters' OPS and his WHIP dropped. Heilman actually wasn't as bad as so many want to make him to be. He certainly was not ideal in the first half, but in the second half he was dramatically better:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=heilmaa01&year=2009&t=p#half

 

The bullpen as a whole was very middle of the road at worst and actually just above average at best. It really is overstating things to say that the bullpen out and out "sucked" last year or that it was one of the main causes of the team underperforming. Yes, Gregg himself crapped the bed more time than you'd like, but he's not the whole bullpen. What happened was that a very standard bullpen was "exposed" by a lackluster offense that simply could not score enough when it was necessary, and it forced the bullpen to hold too many close games for too many innings than one can reasonably expect.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[SouthSideRyan]

i see no reason why the cubs should be better than last year.

 

Regression

[champaignchris]

The bullpen as a whole was very middle of the road at worst and actually just above average at best. It really is overstating things to say that the bullpen out and out "sucked" last year or that it was one of the main causes of the team underperforming. Yes, Gregg himself crapped the bed more time than you'd like, but he's not the whole bullpen. What happened was a very standard bullpen was "exposed" by a lackluster offense that simply could not score enough when it was necessary, and it forced the bullpen to hold too many close games for too many innings than one can reasonably expect.

 

Yeah. Under the Dusty and Lou regimes, the bullpen has generally been right around league average every year, except in 2007 when it was really good. It generally hasn't been the reason we've won or lost. Last year's disappointing season (and we have to remember they only won two fewer games than the division winner in '07) was all about an offense that scored 148 fewer runs than the previous season. That's just an astounding number.

[davell]

I think we'll stick in the division race, eventually winning it, mainly because I don't see anyone getting more than 85-88 wins. I see us making a move before the deadline to help us with whatever hole truly shows itself to be our biggest. Bounceback seasons from Soriano and Soto will help the offense, along with a healthy Ramirez. I have a feeling that Z and Demp have solid years, but Lilly struggles and so does Wells. But, I see Shark, Marshall, or Gorzellanny surprising from the 5th spot. And it won't surprise me to see Castro wind up in the majors for the majority of the year either.

[dew1679666265]

I can see a range of wins for this team all the way from mid-70s (if Aramis is hurt a lot, the rotation doesn't come together and Soriano/Soto/Fontenot/Byrd are terrible) to mid-90s (if DLee repeats, Aramis is fully healthy, the rotation is great and Soriano/Soto/Fontenot rebound well).

 

I definitely think we'll be close enough to the division crown at the deadline to be buyers, though, and hopefully Ricketts will be willing to add some salary. That'll be a key to us actually winning the division, I think.

[erik316wttn]

If our offense stays healthy and Soriano and Soto rebound, we can contend if the rotation doesn't implode.

 

The rotation, however, scares me without Harden in it, and who knows how long it'll be after Lilly comes back before he's effective again.