BP's early season record projections

Rob · February 8, 2010

i'm trying to figure out how three of carlos' gomez top four pecota comps are dwight evans, carlos beltran and grady sizemore. those three guys were/are (a) really good at walking and (b) much more productive at this age than gomez has been.
Pecota seems to have messed up badly and no one at BP seems to know how to fix it with Nate Silver no longer involved.

i'm guessing he'd help them fix the problems, but you're right, this year's edition seemed to have a lot of bugs in it when it was released, some of which have been fixed and some that are still issues.

From whaqt I gather, he's under no obligation to help them fix all of the problemems that pop up. He jumped into the world's top #100 powerful men last year according to some magaizine based on the work at 538. I don't see why he'd let himself get held back by baseball when he's on the verge of being the new and improved drudge.

Eric Clipperton · February 11, 2010

I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

2008 PECOTA Projections
2009 .289/.368/.464 Derrek Lee
2010 .287/.367/.462 Derrek Lee

2010 PECOTA Report
2009 .306/.393/.579 Derrek Lee's Actual Line
2010 .282/.367/.454 Derrek Lee's New Projection

So let me get this right. Pecota projects 2009 and 2010 with all the available information prior to 2009. One year later PECOTA gets new information which shows that Lee's 2009 projection was probably too low. Pecota takes this updated information and makes an updated projection for 2010 Derrek Lee. And this new information causes Pecota to think Lee is worse than they did prior to it.

Please I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

Didn't notice this because I don't look at BP, but wow that is a pretty horrible series of projections. PECOTA was better than most of BP's "stats", but IMO it still was not as good as what is now available for free at Fangraphs etc.

Plus Kahrl makes my eyes bleed with that unholy combo of horrible-metaphor packed "writing" and of course the other part which could be considered literally unholy.

Deder · February 13, 2010

i'm trying to figure out how three of carlos' gomez top four pecota comps are dwight evans, carlos beltran and grady sizemore. those three guys were/are (a) really good at walking and (b) much more productive at this age than gomez has been.

Beltran comp is pretty close. Over his first 3 seasons his OPS was pretty terrible and his OBP was low. He didn't really break out until Gomez's age right now. Sizemore is a bit more of a head scratcher as he was already a good hitter at Gomez's age. Both were relatively low BB, high K speedster types so I can kind of see the comp though both had higher ISO than Gomez.

The division can really go to anyone, I don't think any team stands out. The Cardinals will probably win it if Carpenter and Wainwright both stay healthy all year but I'm not sure that is very likely. The Brewers and Reds need young guys to really step up to win it. The Cubs need the old guys to stay healthy and Soto to rebound. The Astros would need their rotation to really step up to have any shot.

Guancous · February 14, 2010

I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

2008 PECOTA Projections
2009 .289/.368/.464 Derrek Lee
2010 .287/.367/.462 Derrek Lee

2010 PECOTA Report
2009 .306/.393/.579 Derrek Lee's Actual Line
2010 .282/.367/.454 Derrek Lee's New Projection

So let me get this right. Pecota projects 2009 and 2010 with all the available information prior to 2009. One year later PECOTA gets new information which shows that Lee's 2009 projection was probably too low. Pecota takes this updated information and makes an updated projection for 2010 Derrek Lee. And this new information causes Pecota to think Lee is worse than they did prior to it.

Please I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

Didn't notice this because I don't look at BP, but wow that is a pretty horrible series of projections. PECOTA was better than most of BP's "stats", but IMO it still was not as good as what is now available for free at Fangraphs etc.
Plus Kahrl makes my eyes bleed with that unholy combo of horrible-metaphor packed "writing" and of course the other part which could be considered literally unholy.

Did Christina Kahrl become a Cardinals fan?

Eephus Speed · February 14, 2010

More projections: http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm

I still prefer these: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

Or, better yet, mine: http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=39197

Formerly Snayke · February 14, 2010

RLYW thinks the Reds are going to win 85 games, eh? That's a tad optimistic.

BTW, I like your new name better.

Northside Blues · February 16, 2010

Now Clay Davenport is saying that we need to use 75th percentile now instead of 50th (why?). They really have no idea what to do. Anyways Lee is now at .287/.378/.472

Eephus Speed · February 16, 2010

RLYW thinks the Reds are going to win 85 games, eh? That's a tad optimistic.

BTW, I like your new name better.

More innings from Harang and Bailey, big improvement from Bruce, more offense from CF and having Rolen for a full season are all reasonable expectations, which could make the Reds an 85-win team. But, yeah, 85 is probably a tad optimistic.

I like my new name better, too. I take it you're a GRB participant?

Lefty · October 4, 2010

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

You'd lose.

As a team the reds hit 8 points lower and had a OBP 14 points lower than the Cubs. The reds OPS was also well below the Cubs.

The cubs also had better stats compared to the reds pitching.

I just dont see the reds being as good as the Cubs, if only because Baker is their manager and he does not have a roided up player to make him look good....

Those are last year's stats. By that measure the Cubs must have won the division in 2009 because of their 2008 stats.

The Cubs are on their way down, the Reds on their way up. They cross this year.

You see no rebound from Soto or Soriano? You expect Ramirez to be hurt again? You don't think Byrd can outperform Bradley?

On the flip side, you're expecting who to step up for the Reds? Bruce? An 80 year old Scott Rolen?

I just don't see it

...and yet it happened.

Hairyducked Idiot · October 4, 2010

Betting against the Reds as a trendy dark horse pick may not have worked out this year, but it's still got a long track record of being a good idea.

erik316wttn · October 4, 2010

BP was pretty spot on for us, record-wise.

TruffleShuffle · October 4, 2010

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

hopefully you were saying this more as a hypothetical than something you actually went and did.

imb · October 5, 2010

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

hopefully you were saying this more as a hypothetical than something you actually went and did.

look at riverboat gambler over here.

October 5, 2010

Had to beat up a homeless guy to use his laptop to post this, I lost everything.

TruffleShuffle · October 5, 2010

Had to beat up a homeless guy to use his laptop to post this, I lost everything.

homeless people have laptops? ONLY IN OBAMA'S AMERICA.

Soul · October 5, 2010

Nailed us down pretty good. Missed on the Reds though.

Northside Blues · October 5, 2010

I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

2008 PECOTA Projections
2009 .289/.368/.464 Derrek Lee
2010 .287/.367/.462 Derrek Lee

2010 PECOTA Report
2009 .306/.393/.579 Derrek Lee's Actual Line
2010 .282/.367/.454 Derrek Lee's New Projection

So let me get this right. Pecota projects 2009 and 2010 with all the available information prior to 2009. One year later PECOTA gets new information which shows that Lee's 2009 projection was probably too low. Pecota takes this updated information and makes an updated projection for 2010 Derrek Lee. And this new information causes Pecota to think Lee is worse than they did prior to it.

Please I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

Caught with a sock in my mouth.

BigSlick · October 6, 2010

perhaps their projection system has an algorithm that figures when a player of declining ability has a flukey breakout season at his age they tend to regress even worse the next season

probably not though

abuck1220 · October 6, 2010

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

hopefully you were saying this more as a hypothetical than something you actually went and did.

look at riverboat gambler over here.

um, you don't accurately pick 6 out of 13 college football games by being an idiot, thank you very much.

TruffleShuffle · October 6, 2010

this is the baseball thread, please stay on topic.

if you'd like to discuss betting, please visit my website, thecollegefootballknowitall.com

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BP's early season record projections

Rob

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Eric Clipperton

Deder

Guancous

Eephus Speed

Formerly Snayke

Northside Blues

Eephus Speed

Lefty

Hairyducked Idiot

erik316wttn

TruffleShuffle

imb

Guest

TruffleShuffle

Soul

Northside Blues

BigSlick

abuck1220

TruffleShuffle

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