Cubs sign OF Marlon Byrd (3/$15M)

[A New Era]

No, he should have been fired for playing milton bradley when he should have been signing someone good.

[Sammy Sofa]

Duuuurrrrrrrrraaaaaaagggggggggggghhhhhhh...

[Splendid Splinter]

See the pattern?

Chone has him at .281/.345/.448 (4 RAA). That's probably your best guess.

 

So basically... He's gonna have the same OPS roughly as Fukudome last year with a tad better defense at CF. Who wouldn't take that? I'm in the same boat as most posters here. I like the $ per year, just wished it was 2 years instead of 3, but at worst he'll be a very good 4th OF at the end of his contract.

 

Side Note: This is also my very first post. It's about time I join NSBB.

[jersey cubs fan]

See the pattern?

Chone has him at .281/.345/.448 (4 RAA). That's probably your best guess.

 

So basically... He's gonna have the same OPS roughly as Fukudome last year with a tad better defense at CF. Who wouldn't take that? I'm in the same boat as most posters here. I like the $ per year, just wished it was 2 years instead of 3, but at worst he'll be a very good 4th OF at the end of his contract.

 

Side Note: This is also my very first post. It's about time I join NSBB.

 

But Fukudome's OPS was OBP heavy, making it more valuable. Essentially it's the same team as last year, just spending an extra few million to replace Bradley with Byrd and losing Harden. They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

 

Byrd has been about a 3 WAR player the last 3 years, and Bradley provided 1 WAR in RF last year. UZR has Fukudome as about 3 wins better defensively in RF v. CF. Regress both of those to 2 WAR and consider they're replacing Bradley, and the move still makes them 3 wins better for 5 million a year. That's an extremely efficient use of resources, even if Byrd disappoints or Fukudome's 2008 defense was fluky.

[jersey cubs fan]

They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

 

Byrd has been about a 3 WAR player the last 3 years, and Bradley provided 1 WAR in RF last year. UZR has Fukudome as about 3 wins better defensively in RF v. CF. Regress both of those to 2 WAR and consider they're replacing Bradley, and the move still makes them 3 wins better for 5 million a year. That's an extremely efficient use of resources, even if Byrd disappoints or Fukudome's 2008 defense was fluky.

 

Marlon Byrd is more than just his last three years and Milton Bradley is more than just his 2009.

[Splendid Splinter]

But Fukudome's OPS was OBP heavy, making it more valuable. Essentially it's the same team as last year, just spending an extra few million to replace Bradley with Byrd and losing Harden. They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

 

 

Yes, that does make it more valuable, but as I'm looking at this Cubs team... they need someone who is a little more SLG heavy to produce runs. Cubs got enough guys who can draw walks (even with bad years with several guys last year, they still ended up 6th in BBs and 1st in '08). Not really disagreeing with you here. I agree with everything you said there and the only improvement they made is they're better defensively in the OF. IMO, Byrd is a better fit for the Cubs than another CF or OF who is OBP heavy. It's not like there were a lot of other options out there.

 

Anyway, how you actually make improvements with this team with this year's crop of FAs??? Don't say keeping Bradley either... while most of us wanted him to stay (myself included) and repair the relationship, you knew he wasn't going to be there. Also with the extra money from Seattle, Cubs basically got Byrd for free this year. So basically the Bradley deal was Bradley for Silva and 6 mil which I forgot how much they get this year that turned into Byrd so they barely spend more money to replace Bradley and a throw in with Silva who could turn around into a servicable pitcher (I'm not holding my breath on that though).

 

We'll see what other tricks Hendry has left in his sleeve for this offseason. Although if I was Ricketts, I would've cleaned house in that organization basically right away (while keeping a few key guys who are actually good at their job) and fire Hendry the moment the sale was approved.

[jersey cubs fan]

Also with the extra money from Seattle, Cubs basically got Byrd for free this year. So basically the Bradley deal was Bradley for Silva and 6 mil which I forgot how much they get this year that turned into Byrd so they barely spend more money to replace Bradley and a throw in with Silva who could turn around into a servicable pitcher (I'm not holding my breath on that though)..

 

That is some silly math.

 

They didn't get Byrd for free, essentially, virtually, existentially, or anything else.

[Splendid Splinter]

That is some silly math.

 

They didn't get Byrd for free, essentially, virtually, existentially, or anything else.

 

Maybe not totally free, but Seattle gave the Cubs some money along with Silva. That money basically helped Hendry sign Byrd so you can put some of that money in towards that 3yrs/15 mil contract.

 

What I was saying is that Cubs got 5 or 6 mil from Seattle in the Silva/Bradley deal. Byrd first year of his contract is 3 mil so essentially you can say Byrd first year with the Cubs is free. (I mean they still pay him 3 mil, but they can use the Seattle's money instead of their own... you understand what I'm saying?)

Edited January 4, 2010 by Splendid Splinter

[jersey cubs fan]

That is some silly math.

 

They didn't get Byrd for free, essentially, virtually, existentially, or anything else.

 

Maybe not totally free, but Seattle gave the Cubs some money along with Silva. That money basically helped Hendry sign Byrd so you can put some of that money in towards that 3yrs/15 mil contract.

 

They gave them money because the Cubs gave them a useful player and got back a useless bum, and it doesn't offset the waste of spending on the transaction in the first place.

[davearm2]

This is a fairly straightforward point being made by Splendid Splinter.

 

Whereas at first the Cubs traded Bradley for Silva and cash, now we can view it as Bradley for Silva and Byrd, since the Cubs spent the cash on Byrd.

[SouthSideRyan]

This is a fairly straightforward point being made by Splendid Splinter.

 

Whereas at first the Cubs traded Bradley for Silva and cash, now we can view it as Bradley for Silva and Byrd, since the Cubs spent the cash on Byrd.

 

Well, Byrd's first season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

 

Byrd has been about a 3 WAR player the last 3 years, and Bradley provided 1 WAR in RF last year. UZR has Fukudome as about 3 wins better defensively in RF v. CF. Regress both of those to 2 WAR and consider they're replacing Bradley, and the move still makes them 3 wins better for 5 million a year. That's an extremely efficient use of resources, even if Byrd disappoints or Fukudome's 2008 defense was fluky.

 

Marlon Byrd is more than just his last three years and Milton Bradley is more than just his 2009.

 

So you're upset about how they went about getting the improvement? Bradley was likely to improve, but probably not beyond Byrd's level and definitely not to compensate the large difference in Kosuke's defense.

[davearm2]

This is a fairly straightforward point being made by Splendid Splinter.

 

Whereas at first the Cubs traded Bradley for Silva and cash, now we can view it as Bradley for Silva and Byrd, since the Cubs spent the cash on Byrd.

 

Well, Byrd's first season.

100% of Byrd's salary in 2010, and ~70% of his 2011 salary.

[Guest]

They need to make actual improvements to the team, not just find ways to spend more while getting the same results.

 

Byrd has been about a 3 WAR player the last 3 years, and Bradley provided 1 WAR in RF last year. UZR has Fukudome as about 3 wins better defensively in RF v. CF. Regress both of those to 2 WAR and consider they're replacing Bradley, and the move still makes them 3 wins better for 5 million a year. That's an extremely efficient use of resources, even if Byrd disappoints or Fukudome's 2008 defense was fluky.

 

Marlon Byrd is more than just his last three years and Milton Bradley is more than just his 2009.

 

So you're upset about how they went about getting the improvement? Bradley was likely to improve, but probably not beyond Byrd's level and definitely not to compensate the large difference in Kosuke's defense.

You are making WAY too big a deal of defense. Way too big.

 

It's not improvement at all. At best, it's the same team. Maybe that's good enough to win the NL Central. But it wasn't last year and probably not most years.

[Rob]

You are making WAY too big a deal of defense. Way too big.

 

It's not improvement at all. At best, it's the same team. Maybe that's good enough to win the NL Central. But it wasn't last year and probably not most years.

 

On the whole, our team was 16.7 runs below average in CF last season and 1 run below average in RF (that's despite Fukudome contributing 7.9 runs above average in RF).

 

Even if you think Byrd is a -10 defender in CF and Fukudome is only +5 in right, that's a full win right then and there. And all available evidence points towards Byrd being an average defender and Fukudome being a +15 or so. That's about 3 wins... and there's no reason to change that downwards based on offensive performance (Fukudome, Bradley, and Byrd all had an identical wRC+ of 108, with little reason to expect significant dropoff from that number going forward).

 

That's called improvement.

 

Now whether the true talent level of the team is higher, that's certainly debatable. Expecting defensive adjustments in CF from Fukudome and an offensive rebound from Bradley might have easily given us the same improvement. But to say it's not improvement is being terribly dishonest or terribly ignorant, take your pick. Even if you don't trust UZR to be exact (and it isn't), the gap is simply too large to pretend otherwise.

[Guest]

You are making WAY too big a deal of defense. Way too big.

 

It's not improvement at all. At best, it's the same team. Maybe that's good enough to win the NL Central. But it wasn't last year and probably not most years.

 

On the whole, our team was 16.7 runs below average in CF last season and 1 run below average in RF (that's despite Fukudome contributing 7.9 runs above average in RF).

 

Even if you think Byrd is a -10 defender in CF and Fukudome is only +5 in right, that's a full win right then and there. And all available evidence points towards Byrd being an average defender and Fukudome being a +15 or so. That's about 3 wins... and there's no reason to change that downwards based on offensive performance (Fukudome, Bradley, and Byrd all had an identical wRC+ of 108, with little reason to expect significant dropoff from that number going forward).

 

That's called improvement.

 

Now whether the true talent level of the team is higher, that's certainly debatable. Expecting defensive adjustments in CF from Fukudome and an offensive rebound from Bradley might have easily given us the same improvement. But to say it's not improvement is being terribly dishonest or terribly ignorant, take your pick. Even if you don't trust UZR to be exact (and it isn't), the gap is simply too large to pretend otherwise.

I don't put the same faith in those numbers that you do. Let's set aside the fact that Fukudome is a platoon player for the most part. Those numbers are mostly made up (not by you, but by the silly formula that is used) and don't equate to reality very well.

 

There's simply no way that the defense in CF was that bad last year. And there is simply no way that moving Fukudome from CF to RF and replacing him with Byrd makes that much of a difference.

 

You can trust the models, but I don't.

[Post Count Padder]

Anyone remember when there were talks of us trading Murton for Byrd a few years back and everyone was angry? Good times.

[jersey cubs fan]

Anyone remember when there were talks of us trading Murton for Byrd a few years back and everyone was angry? Good times.

 

Not specifically, but I remember his name coming up back when he was a truly horrible baseball player. That wasn't that long ago, and that is what scares me most about him. Guys who suck in their late 20's scare the bejesus out of me from a longevity standpoint.

[Cubbie Swagger]

Yes, that does make it more valuable, but as I'm looking at this Cubs team... they need someone who is a little more SLG heavy to produce runs.

Seems like everyone has jumped off the Soto bandwagon and forgotten about him. Soto is not going to be a #8 hitter for the rest of his career. I think he'll build on his 2008 season and put up some good numbers this year.

[third eye]

Yes, that does make it more valuable, but as I'm looking at this Cubs team... they need someone who is a little more SLG heavy to produce runs.

Seems like everyone has jumped off the Soto bandwagon and forgotten about him. Soto is not going to be a #8 hitter for the rest of his career. I think he'll build on his 2008 season and put up some good numbers this year.

 

And as Rob (I think?) pointed out, Soto and Fukudome were victims of some pretty lousy luck last year as well. Soto's year wasn't nearly as bad as his slash stats indicated.

[biittner77]

Yes, that does make it more valuable, but as I'm looking at this Cubs team... they need someone who is a little more SLG heavy to produce runs.

Seems like everyone has jumped off the Soto bandwagon and forgotten about him. Soto is not going to be a #8 hitter for the rest of his career. I think he'll build on his 2008 season and put up some good numbers this year.

 

I think most people would agree. However, counting on him to improve is not a sound plan since there's still a good chance that he won't rebound or not enough to make up the offensive shortfall.

[Rob]

You are making WAY too big a deal of defense. Way too big.

 

It's not improvement at all. At best, it's the same team. Maybe that's good enough to win the NL Central. But it wasn't last year and probably not most years.

 

On the whole, our team was 16.7 runs below average in CF last season and 1 run below average in RF (that's despite Fukudome contributing 7.9 runs above average in RF).

 

Even if you think Byrd is a -10 defender in CF and Fukudome is only +5 in right, that's a full win right then and there. And all available evidence points towards Byrd being an average defender and Fukudome being a +15 or so. That's about 3 wins... and there's no reason to change that downwards based on offensive performance (Fukudome, Bradley, and Byrd all had an identical wRC+ of 108, with little reason to expect significant dropoff from that number going forward).

 

That's called improvement.

 

Now whether the true talent level of the team is higher, that's certainly debatable. Expecting defensive adjustments in CF from Fukudome and an offensive rebound from Bradley might have easily given us the same improvement. But to say it's not improvement is being terribly dishonest or terribly ignorant, take your pick. Even if you don't trust UZR to be exact (and it isn't), the gap is simply too large to pretend otherwise.

I don't put the same faith in those numbers that you do. Let's set aside the fact that Fukudome is a platoon player for the most part. Those numbers are mostly made up (not by you, but by the silly formula that is used) and don't equate to reality very well.

 

There's simply no way that the defense in CF was that bad last year. And there is simply no way that moving Fukudome from CF to RF and replacing him with Byrd makes that much of a difference.

 

You can trust the models, but I don't.

 

Do you actually have any idea how the models come up with those numbers, or do you just not trust numbers in general? I'm especially interested to know if you realize how Dewan's +/- numbers are calculated, as they're largely in agreement with UZR and I don't think you'd have an easy time refuting them.

[Rob]

Yes, that does make it more valuable, but as I'm looking at this Cubs team... they need someone who is a little more SLG heavy to produce runs.

Seems like everyone has jumped off the Soto bandwagon and forgotten about him. Soto is not going to be a #8 hitter for the rest of his career. I think he'll build on his 2008 season and put up some good numbers this year.

 

And as Rob (I think?) pointed out, Soto and Fukudome were victims of some pretty lousy luck last year as well. Soto's year wasn't nearly as bad as his slash stats indicated.

 

Yeah, that was me. Soto's luck was far worse than anybody elses, and we should have been looking at just about a repeat performance of 2008.

[carolinacubbie]

Are we addressing the 2B issue by any chance? Fontenot is awful IMO, and I seriously doubt Jeff Baker is the answer.