Cubs sign OF Marlon Byrd (3/$15M)

[cubsfan26]

That's not a pattern, that's one example.

 

It's a pattern. Who else do you want?

 

Michael Young career OPS+ at home: 115

away: 86

 

Nelson Cruz at home: 121

away: 80

 

Kinsler at home: 123

away: 77

 

Andrus at home: 125

away: 76

 

Andruw Jones last year at home: 121

away: 91

 

 

Give us a pattern of guys leaving Texas and going to other equally good hitters parks and numbers dropping off. I think it's pretty obvious that most Rangers hitters hit better at home then away. When you consider the other ballparks in that division compared to that one. The only guy I can think of is Bradley, and I don't think the ballpark switch is why he hit much worse last season. Since he hit much better in lesser AB's in previous seasons.

[Guest]

You already said this type of stuff in another thread, and people showed you things to prove your theory wrong. Since Wrigley is actually a better hitters park then Texas. Plus even you said that hitter in NL Central road parks will help him with the road stats compared to AL West parks. Also Coors Field back in 2004 was alot better hitters park then Texas currently is or any ballpark in baseball currently is.

 

No one proved my theory wrong. And Wrigley is not a better hitter's park than Texas.

 

Maybe Byrd will be awesome. However, I tend to believe that the extreme hitter's park that Arlington is and has been tends to give the appearance that hitters are better than they really are.

[cubsfan26]

No one proved my theory wrong. And Wrigley is not a better hitter's park than Texas.

 

 

Someone posted the stats in the Byrd thread I believe from baseballreference that ranked all the ballparks. Personally I do expect a little drop off, but not a big one with the switch. But with the money he's getting per year it seems like the Cubs expected that aswell. If teams expected Byrd to have a 800 plus OPS, with 20 HR and 89 RBI's out of CF. I think he would have gotten a little better then a 3 year at 15m deal. IMO if Byrd hits 15 HR and drives in around 70 RBI's with a OPS around 780-790, he will be a big bargin at 5m.

Edited December 31, 2009 by cubsfan26

[cubsfan26]

Hendry said he isn't concerned that the Cubs' lineup will lack balance in 2010.

 

"We won 97 games two years ago with a lineup that was predominantly right-handed," he said.

 

Wow. He's pretty much contradicting himself.

 

Ha! That's funny!

 

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=56474

 

:)

 

I wonder if this year, he knows his jobs on the line. So he's just doing what he wants to do to get the team back in the playoffs. Instead of trying to please Lou and get the team more LH.

[davearm2]

That's not a pattern, that's one example.

 

It's a pattern. Who else do you want?

 

Michael Young career OPS+ at home: 115

away: 86

 

Nelson Cruz at home: 121

away: 80

 

Kinsler at home: 123

away: 77

 

Andrus at home: 125

away: 76

 

Andruw Jones last year at home: 121

away: 91

It's pretty well accepted that guys hit better at home than on the road.

 

I sampled a few former Rangers (DeRosa, Teixeira, and Pudge Rodriguez) and they exhibited the very same home/road pattern after moving on from Texas.

[Guest]

That's not a pattern, that's one example.

 

It's a pattern. Who else do you want?

 

Michael Young career OPS+ at home: 115

away: 86

 

Nelson Cruz at home: 121

away: 80

 

Kinsler at home: 123

away: 77

 

Andrus at home: 125

away: 76

 

Andruw Jones last year at home: 121

away: 91

It's pretty well accepted that guys hit better at home than on the road.

 

I sampled a few former Rangers (DeRosa, Teixeira, and Pudge Rodriguez) and they exhibited the very same home/road pattern after moving on from Texas.

 

And I agree that players typically do play better at home than on the road. However, nowhere in Marlon Byrd's career has he posted OPS+'s in the high 130's except in Arlington. At home and on the road at all of his other stops, he's basically been right in between 100 and 110. And that's all anyone should expect from him, which is not horrible, but certainly nothing to get excited about, either.

 

All I'm saying is Byrd's numbers at Texas are propped up because of the park he plays in. He's not as good as advertised. I used Burnitz as an example because Hendry acted like Burnitz was the guy he wanted all along (after the Sosa trade), spewing his 30+ HR power, blah, blah, blah.

[SouthSideRyan]

At home and on the road at all of his other stops, he's basically been right in between 100 and 110.

 

This isn't even close to being true.

[Tim M]

I'm fine with it. Ranger fans seem to have really liked Byrd from what I have seen. 3 years is a bit lengthy but the salary is pretty cheap for what Byrd can give you. I wish we were focusing on 2B too. Fontenot isn't a starter and I don't think Baker is either. Get Hudson and call it an off-season.

[cubsfan26]

This is what Fangraph said about Byrd

 

After a few months of shopping around, the Cubs finally settled on Marlon Byrd as their new center fielder, signing him to a 3 year deal worth a reported $15 million. What should Cubs fans expect from their new center fielder?

 

Essentially, the epitome of an average player. Byrd is across the board about as average as it gets. His career wOBA is .332, and that’s based on a skill set that is neither strong nor weak at any one thing. He walks some, strikes out some, and hits for some power, though he’s not a slugger.

 

Given that this is a big time buyer’s market, pretty much any deal is going to look good in comparison with other contracts signed in prior years, and this one is no different. In over 4,000 innings in center field, his career UZR/150 is 0.0.

 

Jack of all trades, master of none, thy name is Marlon Byrd. To be fair, he’s been a bit above average the last few years, but the Cubs are signing him for his age 32-34 seasons, so they should be building some regression into his past performances. Projecting him as a +2 win player going forward is fair.

 

$5 million a year, even on a three year deal, is a good contract for the Cubs. He fills a hole and should provide a solid performance at a cost of less than $3 million per win. Even in this kind of market, that’s a move worth making. Byrd is not a star, but he’s good enough at everything to be a useful role player, and the price was right for the Cubs.

 

and

 

Also, just throwing this out there – this deal should make Mets fans want to throw something. Realistically, Jason Bay is about +1 win better than Marlon Byrd, maybe +1.5 if you think UZR is just way off on his defense. Byrd signed for $5 million per year, while Bay gets $16.5 million per year.

 

Given the relative costs, the Mets would have been far better off with Byrd and $10 million to spend on a pitcher than with Bay

.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-land-marlon-byrd/

 

 

I don't agree with all of this but it's a interesting read.

[davearm2]

That's not a pattern, that's one example.

 

It's a pattern. Who else do you want?

 

Michael Young career OPS+ at home: 115

away: 86

 

Nelson Cruz at home: 121

away: 80

 

Kinsler at home: 123

away: 77

 

Andrus at home: 125

away: 76

 

Andruw Jones last year at home: 121

away: 91

It's pretty well accepted that guys hit better at home than on the road.

 

I sampled a few former Rangers (DeRosa, Teixeira, and Pudge Rodriguez) and they exhibited the very same home/road pattern after moving on from Texas.

 

And I agree that players typically do play better at home than on the road. However, nowhere in Marlon Byrd's career has he posted OPS+'s in the high 130's except in Arlington. At home and on the road at all of his other stops, he's basically been right in between 100 and 110. And that's all anyone should expect from him, which is not horrible, but certainly nothing to get excited about, either.

 

All I'm saying is Byrd's numbers at Texas are propped up because of the park he plays in. He's not as good as advertised. I used Burnitz as an example because Hendry acted like Burnitz was the guy he wanted all along (after the Sosa trade), spewing his 30+ HR power, blah, blah, blah.

Just FYI:

 

An OPS+ of 100 even would've been good for 13th best amongst MLB CFs in 2009.

 

Byrd's actual OPS of 106 was 9th best.

 

A 110 would've been 6th best.

 

Anything in the 130s would've been #1.

 

So even by your own conservative estimate, we're still talking about a guy whose hitting is in or near the top 10 at his position.

[Guest]

At home and on the road at all of his other stops, he's basically been right in between 100 and 110.

 

This isn't even close to being true.

 

Believe whatever you want, but Byrd will probably be a 100-110 OPS+ guy all 3 years he's a Cub.

 

I'm done arguing about the ever so mediocre Marlon Byrd.

[PrimeTime]

One sites view on this

 

Stop us if this sounds familiar: a Rangers outfielder who has reached 420 at-bats just twice in his eight-year career, becomes a free agent after his best season and signs on with the Cubs for three seasons. Yeah, Milton Bradley was this guy last season and that divorce was ugly. Byrd does not have the publicized anger issues, but he is the one major leaguer who openly admits that he still obtains "a variety of pills and powders from (Victor) Conte." There's no word of the price tag, but hopefully he'll come much cheaper than Bradley. Byrd could help solve the Cubs' problem of finding an everyday center fielder.

[Guest]

That's not a pattern, that's one example.

 

It's a pattern. Who else do you want?

 

Michael Young career OPS+ at home: 115

away: 86

 

Nelson Cruz at home: 121

away: 80

 

Kinsler at home: 123

away: 77

 

Andrus at home: 125

away: 76

 

Andruw Jones last year at home: 121

away: 91

It's pretty well accepted that guys hit better at home than on the road.

 

I sampled a few former Rangers (DeRosa, Teixeira, and Pudge Rodriguez) and they exhibited the very same home/road pattern after moving on from Texas.

 

And I agree that players typically do play better at home than on the road. However, nowhere in Marlon Byrd's career has he posted OPS+'s in the high 130's except in Arlington. At home and on the road at all of his other stops, he's basically been right in between 100 and 110. And that's all anyone should expect from him, which is not horrible, but certainly nothing to get excited about, either.

 

All I'm saying is Byrd's numbers at Texas are propped up because of the park he plays in. He's not as good as advertised. I used Burnitz as an example because Hendry acted like Burnitz was the guy he wanted all along (after the Sosa trade), spewing his 30+ HR power, blah, blah, blah.

Just FYI:

 

An OPS+ of 100 even would've been good for 13th best amongst MLB CFs in 2009.

 

Byrd's actual OPS of 106 was 9th best.

 

A 110 would've been 6th best.

 

Anything in the 130s would've been #1.

 

So even by your own conservative estimate, we're still talking about a guy whose hitting is in or near the top 10 at his position.

 

The difference between the 10th best and the 20th or 25th best is probably minimal at best. If they aren't top 5, they probably aren't much better than average.

[erik316wttn]

Hendry said he isn't concerned that the Cubs' lineup will lack balance in 2010.

 

"We won 97 games two years ago with a lineup that was predominantly right-handed," he said.

 

Wow. He's pretty much contradicting himself.

 

Yeah, he's just phoning it in at this point.

[Keener98]

Oh look, another ex teammate of Milton Bradley, speaking very highly of him. But, Ive read here that Bradleys teammates and ex-teammates hate him.......

 

“I haven’t talked to him, as far as baseball, I haven’t talked to him since during the season. We tried to go over things as far as what was going on with his swing,” Byrd said of Bradley. “But the bit thing about me and Milton is we have a relationship off the field, so I love Milton Bradley, and I’m a little biased when it comes to him. I think he’s a great guy. I’m going to talk to him today about coming here. I’m sure he’s happy, too. … He’s going to another place to get a fresh start. It’s a thing of the past.”

[Guest]

Oh look, another ex teammate of Milton Bradley, speaking very highly of him. But, Ive read here that Bradleys teammates and ex-teammates hate him.......

 

“I haven’t talked to him, as far as baseball, I haven’t talked to him since during the season. We tried to go over things as far as what was going on with his swing,” Byrd said of Bradley. “But the bit thing about me and Milton is we have a relationship off the field, so I love Milton Bradley, and I’m a little biased when it comes to him. I think he’s a great guy. I’m going to talk to him today about coming here. I’m sure he’s happy, too. … He’s going to another place to get a fresh start. It’s a thing of the past.”

 

Uh oh. A new cancer in the clubhouse. "You're either with us or you're against us".

[PrimeTime]

I just hope he starts hitting right away because you know he's going to get booed right away and its going to turn into a nightmare again on and off the field like last year.

[Wsmith]

With the addition of Byrd, will the Cubs have the oldest (or if you prefer, the most experienced) starting lineup in the National League?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I just hope he starts hitting right away because you know he's going to get booed right away and its going to turn into a nightmare again on and off the field like last year.

 

Yup. The last thing we need is another player who happens to be black getting booed because they suck and get called racist again.

[Backtobanks]

The bottom line is that Byrd being "average" is good enough. He's making below average pay for a starter, so expectations shouldn't be unreasonable. Bradley signed a big contract and expectations were high so they're completely different situations.

[Formerly Snayke]

Also, just throwing this out there – this deal should make Mets fans want to throw something. Realistically, Jason Bay is about +1 win better than Marlon Byrd, maybe +1.5 if you think UZR is just way off on his defense. Byrd signed for $5 million per year, while Bay gets $16.5 million per year.

 

Given the relative costs, the Mets would have been far better off with Byrd and $10 million to spend on a pitcher than with Bay

.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-land-marlon-byrd/

 

As true as this is, the media would be in pure revolt if Omar Minaya introduced Marlon Byrd as the team's left fielder.

[17 Seconds]

I like it if for no other reason that it does nothing to improve this team in any meaningful way. I hope it hastens Hendrys exit.

 

You do realize that Byrd had the 3rd best OPS among all major league CFs last season?

 

Do you realize the Cubs already had a good hitting CF last year? Now they are moving him to RF where he won't be comparably good.

 

the difference between fukudome's defense in center and his defense in rf so far in the majors has been enormous. moving fukudome to right helps the defense greatly.

[17 Seconds]

Do you realize the Cubs already had a good hitting CF last year? Now they are moving him to RF where he won't be comparably good

 

I do realize that, but he was a bad defensive CF last year. Moving him to RF will improve the defense, and probably still give us better production then we got out of Bradley last year. Especially if we find the right platoon partner for him. For example how would a Jonny Gomes and Fukudome platoon in RF look next season?

 

I do not think Fukudome was bad in CF, and I doubt Byrd will be better.

 

fukudome was very bad in center last year, and byrd is about average there.

 

so yes, he should be a lot better. also, it helps the d in rf. so that's 2 defensive positions upgraded with 1 move.

[Old Style]

meh

[YearofDaCubs]

You know what for 3/15 for Byrd, I can't really complain about that.