Matt Holliday Signs with Cards (7yrs, $120 Million)

[phinstd]

It's maybe two years too long for me, but the average annual salary is something that before the offseason started, we never would have thought we could get. As a Cards fan, it would be hard not to be excited over the deal. With market inflation, and prospective aging for a player like Holliday, he'll still probably be a pretty good player at age 35 and 36 (he'll play the entire final year at age 36).

 

In a negotation, you definitely have to give something to get something, and I'm not quite sure the Cards wanted to play an ultra game of chicken with the two big spenders (Yanks/Red Sox) still currently having merely decent players manning LF.

 

For a 5-6 win player, the money is great compared to some comparable players who have become free agents lately. This isn't a slam dunk, no questions asked, Boras put his tail between his legs deal. What it is, is a good deal for the Cards, who need Holliday now that everyone else is signing elsewhere. It's a good deal for Holliday due to the length and the NTC.

 

Seems like a signing that I wouldn't be ecstatic over if I were a rival fan. I wasn't ecstatic when the Cubs signed Byrd to a solid deal.

[Ram23]

I don't think it will put the Cardinals in too much of a bind in the later years. Wainright and Holliday are signed until 2013 or beyond. Carpenter is signed through 2012. Pujols will get his contract and be there for the next 10 years. So then they have to suplement those core players with young guys. Rasmus is under control for a while, as is Shumacher, Ryan, and Molina. The only positions of question are RF and 3b. Ludwick is a FA after this year I believe so we will see what he gets in free agency and if the Cardinals want him back. For this year they will probably sign Tejada to a one year contract, but 3b going forward is the more pressing position that they need to figure out.

 

schumaker and ryan suck

 

when pujols banks next offseason, the cardinals are going to have half of their payroll committed to 2 players every year. that's never good.

 

and what if carpenter goes down again? then you have about 55-60 million going to 2 guys when your payroll is usually around 90 million.

 

i'm not necessarily saying it's a bad move, but it definitely is going to make money really tight pretty much every season and basically takes you out of the running for any premiere free agent over the next several offseasons

 

Whether you think they suck or not isn't the point. The point is that with those two players in the lineup, the Cardinals still made the playoffs. So there is nothing to say that they can't still make the playoffs in the future with those two guys as the SS and 2b for the Cardinals.

[David]

Although this isn't the best contract for the Cardinals and Holliday isn't exactly the player he's heralded as, this still means the Cardinals are far and away the best team for like, the next 3 years minimum. (as long as they keep Pujols)

 

I might watch baseball from afar, our Cubs aren't doing much for a while.

 

 

This can't be a serious post.

[SouthSideRyan]

Seriously, I'd be ecstatic if I never saw a fangraphs $ figure again.

 

I don't see the problem, really. It's the same as posting WAR.

 

 

Then just post WAR. The salary structure of MLB combined with the increasing/decreasing marginal value of a win make the $ figures worthless. You're telling me you've never seen people (on here and elsewhere) post that a player was "worth" a certain amount last year so this is a good deal/bad deal. It was just done with Jason Bay/Byrd the other day. Nevermind the fact that (as stated earlier in the thread) the #s are so reliant on UZR, which single season reliability is sketchy at best

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm ok with this because frankly it's going to take a miracle for the Cubs to compete with STL in 2010 anyway

 

What in God's name are you possibly basing this on?

The Cubs were worse than the Cardinals in 2009 and have gotten worse at baseball this offseason and one of their best players will miss a month to open 2010. I didn't think that was such a controversial statement.

 

The Cubs were worse because two key players drastically underperformed and another missed about half the season. Unless you just assume that Soriano and Soto are going to be horrendous again and the Cubs will suffer the equivalent of Aramis' shoulder injury yet again it's a completely asinine and melodramatic "woe is us" mentality. The Cards' 2009 season was arguably just as much an "everything goes their way" season as it was an "everything that can go wrong does" season for the Cubs. At this point they're two arguably average to above average teams in a bad division. Neither is the clear favorite. To assume that the Cubs will "do nothing" and they have no chance to keep up wth the Cardinals is just stupid analysis.

[Sever82]

I think this is a bad contract by the cardinals, not a bad signing but a bad contract. They probably slightly overpaid because i would've given holliday more time outside of coors before justifying such a contract but most importantly, they had no competition in signing holliday and bid against themselves big time. When the Cubs overpaid soriano, they at least knew that a handful of teams would offer him a contract above 100 million. With Holliday and this economy, who did the cards actually think would bid for holliday? Maybe the Red Sox, but thats a maybe since they haven't really been rumored to have been offering him a deal and the yankees were never interested cause they felt they had their outfield settled with Granderson. But I'm wondering if someone could name one team that would come remotely close that deal. I feel they could've gotten away with a contract very similar to Bay's deal.

 

The Cards definitely are the team to beat in the NL central but i wouldn't put the cubs too far off. The Cubs have a better bullpen and rotation as hard as that is to believe because once you get passed wainwright and Carpenter, the cards have three average or below average starters. The cards do have the advantage with the everyday lineup but if the cubs stay healthy and if the players who had down years bounce back, you could argue the cubs lineup is right there with the cards.

[mul21]

Why do people think Pujols gave the Cards a discount on his last contract? They bought out years of arbitration that would have been at a significantly lower salary that he was paid (avg annual value anyway) for those years. What was his deal, 7 years/$100M? That's $14.3M/year and he would have gotten at least $5-7M lees for the 2 years of arby that were bought out.

 

The Cardinals didn't have everything go right for them last year. Lohse was hurt most of the year (not that I think he's worth the $42M they gave him), Ankiel was awful, they got nothing from 3B because of Glaus being hurt, and they sent away all their good/decent prospects for Holliday and Derosa. They did have a lot of things go right for them, not the least of which was Holliday playing like he was Musial reincarnated.

[Sammy Sofa]

Carpenter staying healthy was pretty huge, too.

[Sever82]

Why do people think Pujols gave the Cards a discount on his last contract? They bought out years of arbitration that would have been at a significantly lower salary that he was paid (avg annual value anyway) for those years. What was his deal, 7 years/$100M? That's $14.3M/year and he would have gotten at least $5-7M lees for the 2 years of arby that were bought out.

 

The Cardinals didn't have everything go right for them last year. Lohse was hurt most of the year (not that I think he's worth the $42M they gave him), Ankiel was awful, they got nothing from 3B because of Glaus being hurt, and they sent away all their good/decent prospects for Holliday and Derosa. They did have a lot of things go right for them, not the least of which was Holliday playing like he was Musial reincarnated.

 

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals. Looking at both teams lineups, i dont think the cards are a clear favorite. The Cards have just as many holes in their lineup as the cubs. The Cubs no doubt have a brighter future than the Cards in my opinion because their Farm system is way better and they're a big market team that can spend.

 

 

I agree with the statement that pujols wont give the cards a discount on his next contract. Pujols next contract will be his big payday and will set his family up for life. Why would pujols take a discount when he has done nothing but give the cardinals his all everygame.

[jersey cubs fan]

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals.

 

The Cubs had injury prone guys get injured. They also had guys like DLee have a remarkably resurgent season, and Randy Wells come out of nowhere to be great. And they lost Harden and Bradley and gained Byrd and Silva. Let's not pretend this was all a luck thing. The Cubs were good in 2008, downgraded over the offseason, had a lot of old injury prone players and it bit them in the butt.

[Soul]

This deal does remind me an awful lot of Soriano. Although with the Cards' luck, they'll get more out of it.

[jersey cubs fan]

This deal does remind me an awful lot of Soriano. Although with the Cards' luck, they'll get more out of it.

 

Well it's a more team friendly contract for a younger, more productive player whose skillset is probably less susceptible to decline, so I'd say it's a good bet they get more out of it without luck coming into play.

[Sever82]

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals.

 

The Cubs had injury prone guys get injured.

 

Zambrano isn't injury prone, neither is Soto, Ramirez is injury prone. Lilly isn't injury prone.

[Soul]

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals.

 

The Cubs had injury prone guys get injured.

 

Zambrano isn't injury prone, neither is Soto, Ramirez is injury prone. Lilly isn't injury prone.

 

Hmmm. Zambrano perhaps isn't "injury prone," but its no secret he's been getting tweaky in recent years. I don't think it's a stretch to have predicted significant time out of action in '09 for him. He's been putting a lot of mileage on his arm.

 

Lilly hasn't been injured with us, but missed time with the Blue Jays. It could be argued that he was due.

[XZero771679666304]

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals.

 

The Cubs had injury prone guys get injured.

 

Zambrano isn't injury prone, neither is Soto, Ramirez is injury prone. Lilly isn't injury prone.

 

Hmmm. Zambrano perhaps isn't "injury prone," but its no secret he's been getting tweaky in recent years. I don't think it's a stretch to have predicted significant time out of action in '09 for him. He's been putting a lot of mileage on his arm.

 

Lilly hasn't been injured with us, but missed time with the Blue Jays. It could be argued that he was due.

 

Soriano is the annoying case. The guy was never, ever hurt before he came to the Cubs. And while Z has been tweaky, it was never really anything more than his chronic cramping/hydration problem, at least before 2009.

[jersey cubs fan]

But the Cubs had worse luck. The cubs had more injuries and more down years than the Cardlinals.

 

The Cubs had injury prone guys get injured.

 

Zambrano isn't injury prone, neither is Soto, Ramirez is injury prone. Lilly isn't injury prone.

 

Zambrano has been dealing with nagging crap for a few years, and has been predicted by many to be due for a phsyical meltdown. If anything the Cubs are probably lucky he's lasted as long as he has without missing much more time.

 

And Soto is a catcher. A fat catcher at that, they are all injury prone.

 

Again, Lilly is a 30-something pitcher who has been banged up at times in the past, those guys miss chunks of time quite frequently.

 

The Cubs also got a shockingly healthy season out of Milton Bradley.

[XZero771679666304]

 

The Cubs also got a shockingly healthy season out of Milton Bradley.

 

For what that was worth.

[Backtobanks]

Let's not forget that Dempster is likely to break his toe jumping over the dugout railing again. The Cubs were probably 2nd to the Mets for the "most missed time to key players" during 2009.

[XZero771679666304]

I don't buy into any of this bad luck vs. pixie dust crap, I just think all this doom-saying is a touch ridiculous. The Cubs are going to compete in 2010, and the Cards aren't running away with anything.

[fromthestretch]

 

And Soto is a catcher. A fat catcher at that, they are all injury prone.

 

 

On top of that, he seems to have a recurring hand problem.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

It's maybe two years too long for me, but the average annual salary is something that before the offseason started, we never would have thought we could get. As a Cards fan, it would be hard not to be excited over the deal. With market inflation, and prospective aging for a player like Holliday, he'll still probably be a pretty good player at age 35 and 36 (he'll play the entire final year at age 36).

 

In a negotation, you definitely have to give something to get something, and I'm not quite sure the Cards wanted to play an ultra game of chicken with the two big spenders (Yanks/Red Sox) still currently having merely decent players manning LF.

 

For a 5-6 win player, the money is great compared to some comparable players who have become free agents lately. This isn't a slam dunk, no questions asked, Boras put his tail between his legs deal. What it is, is a good deal for the Cards, who need Holliday now that everyone else is signing elsewhere. It's a good deal for Holliday due to the length and the NTC.

 

Seems like a signing that I wouldn't be ecstatic over if I were a rival fan. I wasn't ecstatic when the Cubs signed Byrd to a solid deal.

 

 

Great post. I agree.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't buy into any of this bad luck vs. pixie dust crap, I just think all this doom-saying is a touch ridiculous. The Cubs are going to compete in 2010, and the Cards aren't running away with anything.

 

The Cards may end up running away with it, but I wouldn't hand them the title to them.

[David]

So how long before the first offseason fluff piece talking about Soto and Z having lost weight.

 

 

And maybe something like Soriano lifting weights or working out his legs for the first time in his life after a disappointing season.

 

 

A week or two, I'm guessing... Usually pop up right around the convention.

[Guest]

I know I was hoping that the Yankees would sign Holliday away, though I'm not particularly upset about the deal, either. Without a doubt, Holliday makes St. Louis a stronger team in 2010 (and '11 & '12). Whether or not the deal works in the long run depends highly upon what the team can do with payroll in the future.

 

Whether St. Louis or Chicago is the favorite in the division is heavily reliant on your evaluation of several things:

 

1) both pitching staffs have big questions beyond the first couple spots in the rotation - which are bigger is the, well, question

2) how much will the cubs have rebound years from soriano, soto, ramirez, fontentot

3) how much will Rasmus grow in his second year in the bigs?

[Formerly Snayke]

I dont care about this contract at all other than the fact that the cardinals are going to end up committing half their payroll to 2 guys

 

This is the important thing. Even before Holliday, they were definitely a stars and scrubs team. Now they're committing a huge portion of their payroll to Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, and Lohse.

 

Only for 2010 and 2011. And the team is in good position to win the division those two years. Not really an issue.