Cub prospects in the news

[rawaction]

I'm starting to question my assumption we'll definitely be a top 10 system after the deadline by BA. I actually doubt we've got a 4th guy in the top 100 right now.

 

I just said I don't expect a 4th top 50 guys in a trade, but I see no reason why the Cubs couldn't get 1, maybe even 2-3 of the top 100 in trades for Dempster and Garza. Plus, guys like Jackson, Szczur, and Vitters have to be in the 100-150 range. And depending how the season ends for them guys like Candelario, Vogelbach, Lake, and one of the draftee pitchers could end up pretty close to the top 150, if not in.

[davell]

I agree that Brett and Vitters are probably top 150. Candelario may wind up in there too, but I wouldn't be surprised if Szczur wasn't top 200 right now. Honestly, I'm not sure Lake is even top 300, but I figure Alcantara is. Torreyes and Vogelbach could wind up in that range too. Hopefully one of the pitchers we drafted gets in that range as well. At this point though, I'm iffy as to what we even do with Garza, looks like it's possible Shields, Sanchez, even Josh Johnson could hit the market. Plus, Bautista getting hurt yesterday may affect Toronto buying. While I agree that's the return on him if he's dealt, I'm wondering if he gets dealt now at all, because of what may wind up on the market, diluding what teams would give up, based on more options.

[toonsterwu]

I'm starting to question my assumption we'll definitely be a top 10 system after the deadline by BA. I actually doubt we've got a 4th guy in the top 100 right now.

 

I'm jumping in mid-stream I guess, but I wouldn't necessarily rule out Brett from a top 100 spot. Keep in mind where he started, largely a top 40 prospect (IIRC, at least 1 list had him top 30), borderline top 50. He's really a fairly similar player to last year, which often times, causes prospects to drop, but I'm not sure he's necessarily going to drop out of the top 100. He's been disappointing, but he's still an upper level guy who looks like he'll play in the bigs, and he does some things well enough to think that there's going to be some value (solid enough defensively, solid enough power).

 

I also wouldn't rule out Szczur from top 100. He's probably outside looking in (the one list that extended, off the top, was Sickels, who had him top 120). He's improved in all facets that people had some questions on - he's improved defensively, he's improved his discipline, and from April to now, his power has gotten better. He'll probably need the bump up to AA, along with performing well at the level, to grab a top 100 spot ... but I wouldn't rule it out.

 

This isn't to say either guy is going to be top 100, but I think it's too early to write off those guys as top 100 just yet. I think Candelario is on the oustide looking in, perhaps in that top 125 range, as people buy his ability but want to see performance at a higher level.

 

Now, I always had us pegged for 8-12, and I think that's still fairly realistic as of now. 3 top 50, 6-8 top 150. It's possible we slip a notch or two down, but it's also possible trades could bump us to that range.

 

Btw, can anyone give me a short synopsis of the Keith Law thing on rising and falling systems, and in particularly, what his take on us is, if there is one?

[Guest]

Btw, can anyone give me a short synopsis of the Keith Law thing on rising and falling systems, and in particularly, what his take on us is, if there is one?

 

Rising: Houston, Boston, Oakland

Falling: Tampa, Colorado, Washington, Angels

 

No mention of the Cubs.

[toonsterwu]

Btw, can anyone give me a short synopsis of the Keith Law thing on rising and falling systems, and in particularly, what his take on us is, if there is one?

 

Rising: Houston, Boston, Oakland

Falling: Tampa, Colorado, Washington, Angels

 

No mention of the Cubs.

 

Thanks. I guess Washington and Anaheim are falling due to graduations/trades (and in Washington's case, Rendon's injury). A's don't strike me as a big riser off the top (Strailly?), unless he's judging it to pre-winter trades that restocked the deck.

[Guest]

Dave (Pittsburgh): Jim, I'm interested in whether you think the views of Josh Vitters have been affected at all by his performance this season. Though it is true that the PCL has a rep as a hitters' league, it is also true that (with Rizzo now in the majors), Vitters is the youngest guy in the PCL with an OPS of over .800, and a goodly number of the two dozen guys with better OPS' are considerably older. Also, he seems to now have a track record of adjusting to new leagues after a slow start. Still, no one -- not BA, not ESPN, not anyone else -- is even acknowledging that this former top 5 pick who has not yet turned 23 even exists (from a prospect perspective. Is there more to this story that is not obvious to those of us who do not actually see him play?

 

Jim Callis: Not sure how we don't acknowledge his existence when he ranked No. 9 on our Cubs prospect list coming into the season. Vitters has made some strides this year, but his numbers aren't exceptional for the PCL and he still doesn't walk much. Scouts aren't sold that he can handle third base defensively at the big league level. He's a prospect, but he's not a top prospect and his ceiling is solid regular at best.

[sneakypower]

Dave (Pittsburgh): Jim, I'm interested in whether you think the views of Josh Vitters have been affected at all by his performance this season. Though it is true that the PCL has a rep as a hitters' league, it is also true that (with Rizzo now in the majors), Vitters is the youngest guy in the PCL with an OPS of over .800, and a goodly number of the two dozen guys with better OPS' are considerably older. Also, he seems to now have a track record of adjusting to new leagues after a slow start. Still, no one -- not BA, not ESPN, not anyone else -- is even acknowledging that this former top 5 pick who has not yet turned 23 even exists (from a prospect perspective. Is there more to this story that is not obvious to those of us who do not actually see him play?

 

Jim Callis: Not sure how we don't acknowledge his existence when he ranked No. 9 on our Cubs prospect list coming into the season. Vitters has made some strides this year, but his numbers aren't exceptional for the PCL and he still doesn't walk much. Scouts aren't sold that he can handle third base defensively at the big league level. He's a prospect, but he's not a top prospect and his ceiling is solid regular at best.

and here i was just made aware of the fact that he's already fringe-average

[SouthSideRyan]

Why would scouts all be sold he can handle 3B at the big league level if he was fringe-average?

[sneakypower]

because even fringe-average guys don't have constant speculation surrounding them that they'll have to move off the position. do you ever hear any rumblings about how David Freese or David Wright are going to have to move off 3B?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's hardly the only thing Jim Callis was wrong about in that paragraph. But if you want to hitch your horse to his wagon, then yee-haw.

[Guest]

Keith Law chat:

 

I know it is a small sample size but should the cubs promote Dan Volgbach already? Is he just a potential trade chip for the cubs since he is limited to 1B or DH?

Klaw  (1:12 PM)

 

I don't think he's ready for the next level - he's killing mistakes, and there are a lot of them at this level. He's DH only for me so I don't see his future with the Cubs.

 

 

@baseballsmoker (Chicago)

 

Has Brett Jackson fallen off the Top 100? Has Vitters passed him in the Cubs system?

Klaw  (1:33 PM)

 

Jackson was a reluctant add for me to the top 100 last year, mostly because he seemed so close to producing in the majors, but if I redid the list now I'd take him off. Vitters wouldn't make it either.

 

 

Dan (Chicago)

 

Keith, I know you've never liked Matt Szczur much and part of the reason was his lack of patience. Now that he's drastically improved that aspect of his game, do you have a little more faith in him then before? I know you've said before that he's Juan Pierre, but if he can go .275/.360/.400 and steal 50 bases while playing a good centerfield wouldn't he be closer to Michael Bourn? (I would like to see him in AA considering he's almost 23 though)

Klaw  (1:47 PM)

 

He's also old for his level and still has the same short, slappy swing that makes me doubt he can even post a .125 ISO or hit .275 against big league pitching. He's a good example of a prospect overrated by a fan base rooting for a bad team with a thin system. As that farm gets repopulated with better prospects like Almora and Soler, expectations for the fringier guys will be reset.

[jersey cubs fan]

As that farm gets repopulated with better prospects like Almora and Soler, expectations for the fringier guys will be reset.

 

God I hope so.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Szczur turns 23 tomorrow, is in A+ and has a .395 SLG.

[rawaction]

Szczur turns 23 tomorrow, is in A+ and has a .395 SLG.

 

He was also a college football player as recently as 18-months ago.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Szczur turns 23 tomorrow, is in A+ and has a .395 SLG.

 

He was also a college football player as recently as 18-months ago.

 

I keep saying this, but missing key formative athletic years not playing baseball is not a point in his favor. It is a mark against him, and it shows in his awful swing.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't understand why people get their panties in a bunch over legitimate criticisms of szczur. yes, keith law is a troll. but he's hardly the only person saying that szczur doesn't look like a first division starter, given his lack of power in game situations.

[Guest]

Szczur turns 23 tomorrow, is in A+ and has a .395 SLG.

 

He was also a college football player as recently as 18-months ago.

 

I keep saying this, but missing key formative athletic years not playing baseball is not a point in his favor. It is a mark against him, and it shows in his awful swing.

 

His development will take longer because he hasn't had the reps and coaching that others his age have had.

[Guest]

It's both a strike against him and a justification for why his development may take longer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His development will take longer because he hasn't had the reps and coaching that others his age have had.

 

I'm not convinced that sort of time can just be caught up at a later date. We'll see.

[Sammy Sofa]

So is Shark just lucky so far?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So is Shark just lucky so far?

 

Pitching is different.

[Guest]

This is making Szczur sound like the basketball player who didn't pick up a ball until he was 17. The guy played HS and college baseball.

[Little Slide Rooter]

At one point, I think it was Goldstein who said that Szczur's ceiling, or at least a good comp is Reed Johnson. A solid, career 4th OF who could start for a 2nd division team. Like it or not, it's hard to argue. He has all of the tools, though none of them are spectacular. Look forward to Matt Szczur crashing into the wall of a stadium near you.

[rawaction]

This is making Szczur sound like the basketball player who didn't pick up a ball until he was 17. The guy played HS and college baseball.

 

The key is the "focus". Szczur's focus in college was football. Just like Samardzija, he was an All American caliber football player (albeit FCS). I don't know how much of one he missed for the other, but results would seem to suggest that he missed a lot of training/coaching/development in baseball for football. That's not to say he should be treated like he's never played baseball in his life, but even though he's 23, this is only his 2nd year of playing ONLY baseball. Again, not saying he'll develop into a future stud in the majors, but the results have been pretty solid so far. If he develops power, he could be a really good player, but even if he doesn't the improved walk rate suggests he could be a contributor at the top (or bottom) of the lineup who plays average or better defense and gets on base.

[SouthSideRyan]

because even fringe-average guys don't have constant speculation surrounding them that they'll have to move off the position. do you ever hear any rumblings about how David Freese or David Wright are going to have to move off 3B?

 

How do you feel about Starlin Castro's defense?