Cub prospects in the news

[Guest]

No Cubs made BA's first Prospect Hot List. Here is the ensuing chat: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613266.html

 

Trav (Lansing): This year at the end of my dynasty league draft I took a flyer on Dan Vogelbach (Cubs). He has a ton of pop and some compare him to Prince Fielder because of the similar size & raw power I guess. Do you see him doing anything? like possibly cracking your Top 100 next year?

 

J.J. Cooper: The fact that he's still in extended is going to hurt his chances of making next year's Top 100 because an an all-bat guy, performance will play more of a role in him making a Top 100 than say an Andrelton Simmons. We had him as a guest on the Baseball America Show on XM/Sirius Radio a couple of weeks ago. He's a great guy who can really hit. If he hits like we expect, I wouldn't be shocked to see him make a Top 100, but maybe not by Feb. 2013.

 

Roger (Greenville, SC): Could you give us a quick list of the guys who just missed? (The difference between the 35 and what was actually on the sheet)

 

J.J. Cooper: I'm going to leave a few off here, but Adam Conley, Andrew Chafin, Dallas Keuchel, Jed Bradley, David Homnberg, Justin Grimm, Adys Portillo, Tyler Thornburg, John Stilson, Tony Cingrani, Telvin Nash, Chris Dominguez, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Hicks, Austin Hedges, Derek Norris. I could go on, as it was a great week for prospects.

 

Dave (Portland, OR): Can we find a podcast of that Vogelbach interview anywhere on the web?

 

J.J. Cooper: Sorry since XM/Sirius is a subscriber service they don't podcast the interviews.

 

Dave (Illinois): Has Josh Vitters finally figured it out?

 

J.J. Cooper: Sorry, I'm not willing to go there off of a good week. It's a good sign, but let's check back in mid-May.

 

PHil (Chicago): Is May too early to expect to see CF Jackson and 1B Rizzo?

 

J.J. Cooper: With Bryan LaHair posting a 1.000+ OPS in the first week? Probably so. The Cubs know they are in a long-term rebuilding mode, so there's no rush, especially with Jackson.

[Tryptamine]

keithlaw ‏ @keithlaw

 

 

SSS and repeating the level. RT @Demarrer2790: @keithlaw Small sample size or should we be excited about Anthony Rizzo's start?

 

What is Law's problem? So what if Rizzo is repeating at age 22; he's still young for the league. It's like anytime a Cub prospect is doing anything positive, Law finds a way to dismiss it.

[davell]

I have full confidence Law does this with every team. Just part of his schtick.

[Guest]

Law has been coming around a lot on the Cubs. He really likes Epstein.

 

Law said this in last week's chat - which is more confirmation of Maples being injured:

 

Koz (Gilbert, AZ) Did Cubs play it too conservative with Baez, Maples, Vogelbach, Concepcion all not being sent to even a Low A ball club? Or is this proper treatment given their age?

 

Klaw (1:03 PM) Baez surprised me. Maples isn't 100% physically. Vogelbach was way behind velocity when I saw him. Concepcion got to Mesa late and I assume he'll be sent out by early May. Baez was the one guy there with the talent to go to a full-season club, though.

 

rick (champaign il) Klaw, Oneri Fleta of the cubs said that recentley signed cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion would have been a top 15 pick in last years draft, you buying it? and your impressions of the young lefty

 

Klaw (1:06 PM) Haven't seen him yet - will see him later this month after some draft travel. But he would not have been a top 15 pick in any draft, especially not last year's loaded crop.

 

JT (Michigan) In light of Samardzija's recent progression, what does his new ceiling look like? I respect greatly that he's working hard to master control and that his team is giving him a shot, but I want to be realistic about him: 3rd starter at most, and even that's unlikely?

 

Klaw (1:30 PM) I think 3rd starter is a reasonable ceiling, but the probability of this is still not that high. It's just higher than it was at this time last year, when it was zero.

 

Andrew (Chicago) Is a .260/.360/.460 with good D and 20SBs out of line for a Brett Jackson ceiling?

 

Klaw (1:39 PM) Average D in CF? I could see that.

[javy knows my name]

I have no idea what Law looks like, yet I consistently feel like punching him in the face.

[Guest]

[davell]

What in the blue hell is that?

[SouthSideRyan]

Klaw (1:30 PM) I think 3rd starter is a reasonable ceiling, but the probability of this is still not that high. It's just higher than it was at this time last year, when it was zero.

 

Seems like there's a bit of a flaw in your logic there Keith.

[Guest]

I will say this about Keith Law - his draft stuff is always very good.

[davell]

On Twitter, Brett gave us another reason to hope he's called up soon: The Jesus beard will be grown out. Can't have one in minors, so he's got extra motivation, to get here quick.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

What's with the call up Jackson stuff anyway? Its in one of those questions up there...Anyway, it's not like his numbers in AAA were great last year. I thought he needed at least 200 probably 300 PAs before a callup. Not sure you're even a .260 hitter when that's your batting average in the PCL to go with a very high K rate.

[davell]

Actually, he put up a .297/.388/.551 line in 215 plate appearances for Iowa last year.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I will say this about Keith Law - his draft stuff is always very good.

 

I think he's one of the most interesting mainstream baseball writers out there, period. Mostly sounds like some fans are offended he's not saying what they want to hear about Rizzo. For all of Rizzo's hype since coming here, he's still a guy who hit .260 in AA before a callup to the PCL helped him out a bit. Personally, I like him, but there's plenty of room for questions and skepticism.

 

OTOH, given the cynicism you see often from him I thought he'd be less ready to ball wash the Rays after the Garza trade, but he went the same direction everyone else did.

[Guest]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

Yep. He saw Vogelbach strike out twice on fastballs, so now he's telling everyone he was behind on velocity. He left the game before Vogelbach doubled and walked in his next two at-bats.

 

He saw Baez homer, though, so he'll love him forever.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

This I can agree with...OTOH alot of good analysts and/or sports writers are like this...Pauline who covers the NFL draft can rub you the wrong way with the way he writes but the content is worth reading.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

Yep. He saw Vogelbach strike out twice on fastballs, so now he's telling everyone he was behind on velocity. He left the game before Vogelbach doubled and walked in his next two at-bats.

 

He saw Baez homer, though, so he'll love him forever.

 

I can't believe I'm doing this but he might have a point on Vogelbach. I don't see Vogelbach as someone who will hit for average in the long run unless some things work out (maxes and maintains major league level flexibility). Saw Vogelbach more as an OBP/SLG guy when he was drafted, and not the level of pure hitter Prince Fielder is/was. Really will have to wait at least until he reaches AA to really get a picture of what he might be, but the guy is paid to offer his opinion on players and it's seriously not such an outrageous opinion.

 

He might also like Baez's explosive bat speed and athleticism...It's that combo that made Cano and Ramirez the stud hitters they are and/or were. Well that and very strong work ethics despite being you know...lazy foreign language brown people.

[toonsterwu]

keithlaw ‏ @keithlaw

 

 

SSS and repeating the level. RT @Demarrer2790: @keithlaw Small sample size or should we be excited about Anthony Rizzo's start?

To be fair, I think most are waiting to see what rizzo does in the bigs to gauge if he has improved,

What is Law's problem? So what if Rizzo is repeating at age 22; he's still young for the league. It's like anytime a Cub prospect is doing anything positive, Law finds a way to dismiss it.

[illiniguy]

Law still picks the teams he hates and likes. For example he touted Rizzo as a top prospect when the Padres had him this offseason, but when he was moved to the cubs he suddenly changed his tune? What happened on the plane flight over to the Cubs, Keith?

[ctcf]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

You can usually say the same thing about Kevin Goldstein as well.

[TruffleShuffle]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

You can usually say the same thing about Kevin Goldstein as well.

 

that's mostly on twitter when fans of teams tweet him excitedly about some marginal prospect who happens to hit .500 for like a week.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Actually, he put up a .297/.388/.551 line in 215 plate appearances for Iowa last year.

 

Oops.

 

While its significantly better, .297 isn't wow in the PCL either with that kind of K rate.

 

Not that I don't like Jackson, just curious as to what his ceiling is.

[Outshined_One]

Actually, he put up a .297/.388/.551 line in 215 plate appearances for Iowa last year.

 

Oops.

 

While its significantly better, .297 isn't wow in the PCL either with that kind of K rate.

 

Not that I don't like Jackson, just curious as to what his ceiling is.

 

I don't think he's a superstar in the making, but he does a lot of things well enough that he should be a productive major league ballplayer. Someone once brought up Ray Lankford as a comp, which works pretty well in my opinion.

 

He could make a handful of All Star games in his career, but I think he's more of a building block than a cornerstone, if that makes sense.

[Guest]

Actually, he put up a .297/.388/.551 line in 215 plate appearances for Iowa last year.

 

Oops.

 

While its significantly better, .297 isn't wow in the PCL either with that kind of K rate.

 

Not that I don't like Jackson, just curious as to what his ceiling is.

 

I don't think he's a superstar in the making, but he does a lot of things well enough that he should be a productive major league ballplayer. Someone once brought up Ray Lankford as a comp, which works pretty well in my opinion.

 

He could make a handful of All Star games in his career, but I think he's more of a building block than a cornerstone, if that makes sense.

If Vitters really has improved his defense enough to be average at 3B long term (hey, only one error so far!), then I think I'll feel better about being the only weirdo out there to rank Vitters higher than BJax.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ray Lankford is probably what I would call a best-case scenario.

 

I'm starting to seriously doubt Jackson will be ready by the end of this season. The K rates are just not sustainable. AAA pitchers are striking him out 32% of the time. SSS, but if that's anywhere near the true rate, then MLB pitchers are going to eat him alive.