2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Vanilla Ice]

Here is all of the information on the mock bracket before bukie's update tonight.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ndsu for no. 1 seed plz

[SouthSideRyan]

3-6 seeds.

 

Washington

Wake

Kansas

Clemson

Missouri

UCLA

FSU

Villanova

ASU

Syracuse

Purdue

Gonzaga

Texas

Xavier

Marquette

BYU

Edited March 11, 2009 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

Auto bids for tonight: Cleveland State, North Dakota State (in their first year in D1!).

 

Still in progress: Sun Belt final between Western Kentucky and South Alabama.

 

I thought they said NDState started D-1 in 2006

They've been provisional since 2006. This was the first year they were actually eligible for the tourney.

[SouthSideRyan]

Auto bids for tonight: Cleveland State, North Dakota State (in their first year in D1!).

 

Still in progress: Sun Belt final between Western Kentucky and South Alabama.

 

I thought they said NDState started D-1 in 2006

 

They transitioned in with a couple years as an independent, and then a year in the Summit but not allowed in the conference tourney, then this year.

[SouthSideRyan]

8 bubbles:

 

Michigan

TX A&M

Minnesota

Arizona

BC

TN

Dayton

PSU

[Z38Cubs]

Alright, here's my lists:

 

Next 16:

 

Wake Forest

Washington

Kansas

Clemson

Gonzaga

UCLA

Xavier

Missouri

Florida St.

Villanova

Syracuse

Arizona St.

California

BYU

West Virginia

Marquette

 

Next 8:

 

Boston College

Wisconsin

Ohio St.

Tennessee

Texas A&M

Michigan

Oklahoma St.

Dayton

[Guest]

Western Kentucky wins the Sun Belt.

 

http://www.bofads.com/pictures/bigred.bmp

[bukie]

Still 20 minutes to get votes in to count for this round. Hurry and get those ballots in, because early tallies have me slightly disappointed (on a personal level ;)) in the rest of the protected seeds.

[CubbieBum]

1 wake forest

2 villanova

3 kansas

4 washington

5 missouri

6 gonzaga

7 ucla

8 utah

9 marquette

10 xavier

11 clemson

12 syracuse

13 lsu

14 byu

15 arizona state

16 illinois

 

 

 

1 tennessee

2 penn state

3 wisconsin

4 utah state

5 michigan

6 oklahoma state

7 south carolina

8 dayton

 

 

 

sorry if this hard to follow. doing it on my phone while traveling back to indiana.

[ISUCubsFan]

I PMed this to you as well Bukie.

 

Top 16 Remaining Locks:

 

Villanova

Wake Forest

Kansas

Missouri

Washington

Florida State

Clemson

Illinois

Gonzaga

UCLA

Xavier

Arizona State

Syracuse

Purdue

Marquette

LSU

 

 

Top 8 Non-Locks:

 

Ohio State

Michigan

Boston College

Texas A&M

Tennessee

Wisconsin

Arizona

Minnesota

[bukie]

Hold on, let me keep doing the calculations until Illinois comes up as a protected seed.... ... ... ...dammit.

[bukie]

OK, from the results, this is what is clear, with a caveat: I swear I'm not doing this to get Illinois into a protected seed, just that there is a distinct break in the numbers after 7 teams, and then again after 11 teams. So...

 

Added to the S-Curve:

9. Wake Forest

10. Kansas

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

 

The Next Four: Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida State, Illinois

The Next One: Syracuse

 

That would cover through 20 (top 5 seeds), and there's a clear break there, so that will work for the time being. We'll have to do something to separate those 4.

 

As the bubbles go, here are the clear next 6:

Tennessee

Wisconsin

Texas A&M

Michigan

Boston College

Oklahoma State

 

Which actually puts us at 35 at-large bids for now (stupid Butler!), meaning we're at an impasse for at-larges until more open up (as few as zero, as many as 10 more).

[bukie]

So, to sum up:

 

S-Curve (20):

1. Pittsburgh

2. North Carolina

3. Connecticut

4. Oklahoma

5. Michigan State

6. Louisville

7. Duke

8. Memphis

9. Wake Forest

10. Kansas

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16-19. Xavier/Gonzaga (WCC)/Florida State/Illinois

20. Syracuse

 

Other at-large teams (16):

Arizona State

Boston College

Butler

BYU

California

LSU

Marquette

Michigan

Oklahoma State

Purdue

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Utah

West Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Other Auto-bids (30):

ACC

America East

Atlantic 10

East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)

Big 12

Big East

Big Sky

Radford (Big South)

Big Ten

Big West

VCU (Colonial)

Conference USA

Cleveland State (Horizon)

Cornell (Ivy)

Siena (MAAC)

Mid-American

MEAC

Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)

Mountain West

Northeast

Morehead State (Ohio Valley)

Pac-10

Patriot

SEC

Chattanooga (Southern)

Southland

North Dakota State (Summit)

Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

SWAC

WAC

 

...which yes, I realize totals 66 bids overall. We'll just work under the assumption that some at-large viable team is going to win a conference tournament here this week.

 

Other teams still in consideration for bids that open up (roughly in order of support):

Ohio State

Dayton

Arizona

South Carolina

Penn State

Minnesota

Utah State

St. Mary's

UNLV

Miami

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Auburn

Creighton

Florida

Maryland

Notre Dame

Providence

San Diego State

Virginia Tech

[bukie]

So, the next step (aside from waiting for bids):

1) Rank the 4 teams sitting locked together in the 16-19 slots (Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida State, Illinois). I'll post nitty-gritty-like stat sheets for them in the morning.

2) Rank the remaining 16 "in" teams that aren't placed in the S-Curve

3) Rank the 13 teams that will have already won automatic bids by the end of Thursday night (11 already plus NEC and Big Sky)

 

Send them to me via PM/post them here by the end of Thursday night.

 

As for the discussion during that time, I was thinking we could start putting together a bracket, now that we have the protected seeds pretty much settled. Assign legal regions and pods for the teams already placed in the S-Curve.

[Vanilla Ice]

Shouldn't there be 31 auto-bids?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Shouldn't there be 31 auto-bids?

 

Gonzaga has the 31st but is in the S-Curve.

[Andy]

For all the hemming and hawing from the media (and a little from me too) about the Big East getting 9 or 10 teams in partway through the season, they're only going to get 7 unless Providence wins their next two, and/or Notre Dame wins at least their next two, and quite probably three.

[Vanilla Ice]

Updated Bracket

 

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9158/bracket2.jpg

[bukie]

It's the 4 anonymous teams game again! Let me just state ahead of time that I'm using Sagarin's numbers vs. top 25, because the RPI numbers are not readily available for that group.

 

Team A: 24-6, 2-1 against the top 25, 5-3 against the top 50, 5-1 against 51-100, 10-5 road/neutral record, 2 losses outside the top 100, 1 loss outside the top 200, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 48

Team B: 25-5, 0-2 against the top 25, 6-3 against the top 50, 3-1 against 51-100, 15-3 road/neutral record, 1 loss outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 11-1 in the last 12, SOS 84

Team C: 23-8, 3-5 against the top 25, 5-5 against the top 50, 5-3 against 51-100, 10-5 road/neutral record, no losses outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 19

Team D: 23-8, 3-3 against the top 25, 8-6 against the top 50, 3-2 against 51-100, 9-5 road/neutral record, no losses outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 26

 

EDITED: Counted wrong for one of the teams (I only got to look at 3 nitty gritty pages on BBState, so the 4th I had to do manually). Fixed.

Edited March 11, 2009 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd rank them

 

FSU

Gonzaga

Xavier

 

EDITED

[Vanilla Ice]

Florida State

Xavier

Gonzaga

Illinois

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Xavier

Florida St.

Illinois

Gonzaga

[Exile on Waveland]

Xavier

Florida State

Illinois

Gonzaga

 

 

 

RPI is much harsher on Xavier's losses than Pomeroy --Xavier's worst loss on Pomeroy is No. 139 (Charlotte). I'm on record here saying bad losses don't bother me a whole lot; especially for a team that's 12-5 against the top-100. Illinois and Florida State are closer than I thought. It was basically a coin flip for me between the two. Thanks bukie.

[bukie]

Providence manages to avoid getting DePauled.