What to expect from Z?

[inari]

I think a lot of people have forgotten how good he was during the first half of last year. His walks were down (though his strikeouts were too) and he was pitching more efficiently than he ever had before. I believe he was second in all of baseball behind Dan Haren for pitchers' VORP at one point. Then the arm troubles started and his season kind of fell apart.

 

Now everyone seems to have him penciled in for an ERA right under 4. Is that really what we should expect? Given that he had never had any significant arm troubles before, couldn't we expect him to perform much better now that he is theoretically healthy? I'm not saying he'll replicate what he did before the arm troubles (he was probably on pace for a top three finish in the Cy Young voting), but I think people aren't giving him a chance to be anything more than a decent starter. I don't think a 3.4ish ERA is unreasonable.

[B]

all i expect is for him to give Milton Bradley a black guy.

[Roast]

all i expect is for him to give Milton Bradley a black guy.

I bet it's Joey Gathright.

[Mephistopheles]

Hopefully an RA under 4.00 and 25 starts. I'm not overly optimistic on either's chances.

[CubinNY]

all i expect is for him to give Milton Bradley a black guy.

I bet it's Joey Gathright.

He's so cute.

[SweetZombieJesus]

1IP 7 ER 0 Ks 5BBs

 

blownout elbow.

 

He's more delicate than ben sheets and pedro martinez combined.

[UMFan83]

I expect that after some starts he will be revered as a god, and in other starts we will want to give him a black guy.

[imb]

take meph's prediction and subtract about .4 off his era

[Sammy Sofa]

At least a month on the DL.

[Mephistopheles]

take meph's prediction and subtract about .4 off his era

 

Actually, you can subtract about .3 off of what I posted for his ERA. I said RA. A 4.00 RA for him would put his ERA somewhere in between 3.60 and 3.75. He's probably a 3.40 or so true production pitcher, RA wise, factoring in his bat.

[SouthSideRyan]

Z's never made less than 30 starts in a full season and has never spent significant time on the DL.

[SweetZombieJesus]

Z's never made less than 30 starts in a full season and has never spent significant time on the DL.

 

that just makes him a exceeding larger injury risk.

[SouthSideRyan]

Z's never made less than 30 starts in a full season and has never spent significant time on the DL.

 

that just makes him a exceeding larger injury risk.

 

Why? Gambler's fallacy?

 

It's not like he's 23 years old. He's past the age where pitchers are at most risk. Obviously, you don't ride him like a mule just because he's 28 years old, and I'd still monitor him like I would most pitchers, but people have been predicting injury flameouts for Z every year since '04.

[wvcbxl]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

[Tyrant]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

 

In June.

[mcgoobs]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

 

In June.

 

On the 23rd.

[NCCubFan]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

 

In June.

 

On the 23rd.

In the 5th inning.

[cubswin2009]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

 

In June.

 

On the 23rd.

In the 5th inning.

At 8:07 PM

[Garwilly]

A BA over .300 and 5 dingers. 8-)

 

In June.

 

On the 23rd.

In the 5th inning.

At 8:07 PM

 

Aparently as a DH.

[hardcorecubfan]

I think we can't judge it until he decides definetly that he is going to do the WBC, it has sounded like he is waffling on wether he is or not

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll expect him not to come within .250 points of last season's OPS.

[shnsajax]

Carlos outslugged Dunn.

[dew1679666265]

I'll expect him not to come within .250 points of last season's OPS.

 

So you mean .250 points above last year's? :D

[Clem Fandango]

Totally unrelated from the topic at had, but I thought this was a quirky tidbit from Olney's latest blog

 

The best hitter with a minimum of 25 plate appearances with runners in scoring position: Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs, who went 12-for-25.