Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[scarey]

necause run batted in by singles are worth more than runs batted in by home runs. duh

 

If there's more runs batted in by the singles... then yes, they are better.

 

that all depends if the bases are clogged with those darn guys that keep walking, it called the "Dusty factor."

 

You guys and your nonsense. I'll say this one more time.

 

I LOVE WALKS! LOVE THEM! NO JOKE HERE, I AM A BIG FAN OF PEOPLE TAKING A WALK! I DON'T THINK WALKS "CLOG THE BASES". I'M NOT DUSTY BAKER!

[USSoccer]

You should probably stop making the argument then that Dunn walking with a man on 3rd/less than 2 out is bad.

 

Also, stop placing so much stock into BA/RiSP. It's a meaningless and non predictive stat.

 

Also, do tell how a HR could drive in fewer runs than a single.

[scarey]

lso, stop placing so much stock into BA/RiSP. It's a meaningless and non predictive stat.

 

I don't think it's meaningless at all. A middle of the order hitter is going to get anywhere from 150-200 plate appearances over the course of a season with RISP. I happen to think that's quite significant.

 

Also, do tell how a HR could drive in fewer runs than a single.

 

I never said a home run could drive in fewer runs than a single. What I did say is more singles could drive in more runs then significantly less home runs.

 

My example would be... Adam Dunn. In 182 PAs last year, he hit 11 home runs. He had another 21 hits with RISP and a total of 65 runs batted in while in that situation. Only 26 of his runs batted in in that situation were from his home runs. I can't get the exact amount of RBIs he got from singles alone, but out of his 21 non-home run hits with RISP, 18 of them were singles. I know for a fact that he knocked in most of his RBIs in that situation via the single since the most he could have possibly driven in with this 3 doubles is 6 runs. So, say he knocked in all 6 runs in all 3 of his doubles. That means he knocked in at the very least 33 of his RBIs from batting with RISP via the single.

 

33>26

[USSoccer]

The reason batting avg w/ risp is useless is because the numbers vary year in and out too much to be of any predictive value.

[AlwaysaCub]

The reason batting avg w/ risp is useless is because the numbers vary year in and out too much to be of any predictive value.

 

And in those 200 AB w/ RISP, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter is just 5 hits a year, or less than one every month. It would nominally make a difference for the team really 5 hits either way is not much more than pure chance.

[17 Seconds]

The reason batting avg w/ risp is useless is because the numbers vary year in and out too much to be of any predictive value.

 

winner

 

plus like the other dude, the difference over the course of a full season is pretty marginal

 

i can't believe we're arguing about ba w/risp. it's like cubs.com

[scarey]

The reason batting avg w/ risp is useless is because the numbers vary year in and out too much to be of any predictive value.

 

winner

 

plus like the other dude, the difference over the course of a full season is pretty marginal

 

i can't believe we're arguing about ba w/risp. it's like cubs.com

 

Dunn's RISP by year:

 

2001: .203

2002: .208

2003: .170

2004: .239

2005: .248

2006: .221

2007: .241

2008: .241

 

I wouldn't say those averages vary that much, and his high water mark is .241.

 

You guys are totally missing the point. It's not the fact that over the course of a season Dunn will have failed to score a run 10 times less then a .300 hitter with RISP. It's his approach. A guy that's averaging .225 BA with RISP tells me that he doesn't take into account the situation. Rather then shorten up his swing in a two strike count to make contact and try to score a runner, he is still swinging for the fences. He needs to understand that getting 1 or 2 runners from putting the ball in play can benefit his team more then trying to hit a home run and striking out/coming up short. Please don't give me the "low career average = low average with RISP" argument again. If he wants to bat the same way he does with a runner on first, that's just not baseball smart.

 

That (among the usual other reasons) is why I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team. This Cubs team tries to take advantage of every scoring opportunity and Dunn just either doesn't get it, or is too stubborn. I don't trust him to come to the plate in a critical situation. I would rather put my faith in whatever guy replaces him in the lineup whether it be Bradley, or Fontenot/Johnson(take note, IN A CRITICAL SITUATION).

[Derwood]

no, YOU'RE missing the point. batting average DOESN'T MATTER when his OBP is .416 w/ RISP. his OPS is .890. With a runner on 3rd, his OPS is 1.000.

 

his career OBP and OPS w/RISP are better than Derrek Lee

 

 

stop using batting average, PLEASE. it does NOT tell you the whole story

[chopsx9]

For 2008, Morneau was the better hitter (308 Eqa) than Dunn (300 Eqa). However, in 2007, Dunn (312 Eqa) was a much better hitter than Morneau (294 Eqa). In 2006, Morneau (314 Eqa) had a large edge to Dunn (286), but in 2005 Dunn (308 Eqa) was much superior to Morneau(261 Eqa).

 

Considering all of the evidence we have, I'd put them almost equal going forward. It's likely that they will have very similar production. Either one could out produce the other, in my opinion.

 

 

2005 was Morneau's first full year so I'd let him slide a bit on that. Regardless Mourneau has been better over the last three seasons and I'd take him every day of the week and 8 times on Sunday over Dunn.

[chopsx9]

no, YOU'RE missing the point. batting average DOESN'T MATTER when his OBP is .416 w/ RISP. his OPS is .890. With a runner on 3rd, his OPS is 1.000.

 

his career OBP and OPS w/RISP are better than Derrek Lee

 

 

stop using batting average, PLEASE. it does NOT tell you the whole story

 

I don't think you can say BA "DOESN'T MATTER"; absolutely it does not tell the whole story but to say it doesn't matter is a whole other thing.

 

Lets assume you could replace Dunn's 2008 season with Morneau's 2008 in Cincinati's line up exactly - AB for AB. Which player do you think would drive in more runs?? I'd guess Mourneau.

 

Actually somebody (smarter than me) could probably do this and get at least an idea of what the outcome would be - it wouldn't be all that robust as you wouldn't be able follow through on the impact as it rippled throughout the rest of line up - but it might be an interesting exercise nonetheless.

[Derwood]

we need to drop the Morneau comparison. Morneau isn't going to be a Cub next year. Dunn could be. It's a useless comparison. Guess what? Pujols is better than Dunn w/RISP so Dunn sucks!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wouldn't say those averages vary that much, and his high water mark is .241.

 

You guys are totally missing the point. It's not the fact that over the course of a season Dunn will have failed to score a run 10 times less then a .300 hitter with RISP. It's his approach. A guy that's averaging .225 BA with RISP tells me that he doesn't take into account the situation. Rather then shorten up his swing in a two strike count to make contact and try to score a runner, he is still swinging for the fences. He needs to understand that getting 1 or 2 runners from putting the ball in play can benefit his team more then trying to hit a home run and striking out/coming up short. Please don't give me the "low career average = low average with RISP" argument again. If he wants to bat the same way he does with a runner on first, that's just not baseball smart.

 

What you missed in this equation is that walks are still valuable here. If you "shorten your swing" to make a little more contact, but you begin to make more outs, you've lowered your team's run scoring. If you take a walk, you may not have increased it as much as a base hit would have, but you've still improved the situation.

 

So why use BA instead of OBP? Why intentionally ignore a large percentage of the plate appearances?

[chopsx9]

we need to drop the Morneau comparison. Morneau isn't going to be a Cub next year. Dunn could be. It's a useless comparison. Guess what? Pujols is better than Dunn w/RISP so Dunn sucks!

 

I don't think anybody said Dunn sucks (I'm not scrolling back to check); if they did they're wrong.

 

I'd take Pujols over Mourneau everyday of the week and 9 times on Sunday.

[UK1679666180]

You guys are totally missing the point. It's not the fact that over the course of a season Dunn will have failed to score a run 10 times less then a .300 hitter with RISP. It's his approach. A guy that's averaging .225 BA with RISP tells me that he doesn't take into account the situation. Rather then shorten up his swing in a two strike count to make contact and try to score a runner, he is still swinging for the fences. He needs to understand that getting 1 or 2 runners from putting the ball in play can benefit his team more then trying to hit a home run and striking out/coming up short. Please don't give me the "low career average = low average with RISP" argument again. If he wants to bat the same way he does with a runner on first, that's just not baseball smart.

 

Him swinging for the fences is fine, with his uppercut swing it's not about shortening up his swing or slowing down his bat as you'll still get strikeouts and lazy fly balls regardless. He's not going to change his bat angle to make more contact and change everything mechanically with two strikes and screw up his swing.

 

I've mentioned this in the past, but I want to see him more aggressive early in the count, he takes too many strikes early in the count and unless he is a severe guess hitter and guessing wrong, he's watching too many pitches that should be driven, given his talents.

[Lefty]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

 

I'm sure this has been responded too, but I must call you on your silliness. A .247 lifetime hitter who hits .241 with RISP is totally in line. The .208 with 2 outs is also in line because he probably has a platoon advantage less than normal. Professional baseball is too hard to turn on and off. He drives in exactly what he should given the amount of walks he takes. And if a guy expands his strike zone with runners on base, MLB pitchers figure that out pretty quickly.

[Sammy Sofa]

Most people here hate Soriano?

 

That's an interesting declaration.

 

I know a lot really don't like his CONTRACT.

 

There's a difference.

[jersey cubs fan]

Most people here hate Soriano?

 

That's an interesting declaration.

 

I know a lot really don't like his CONTRACT.

 

There's a difference.

 

I've never liked him as a player. Hate is too strong. It's unfortunate that Hendry left the OF so weak that he was practically forced to go out and get Soriano, who is about the opposite of the ideal star.

[David]

You should probably stop making the argument then that Dunn walking with a man on 3rd/less than 2 out is bad.

 

Also, stop placing so much stock into BA/RiSP. It's a meaningless and non predictive stat.

 

Also, do tell how a HR could drive in fewer runs than a single.

 

 

It's not a bad thing, but depending on the lineup he's in (and I'm opening a big can of worms here - and this somewhat goes against what I usually would argue because Dunn is such an extreme case), it's not all that great of a thing either if he has, say, Jeff Keppinger or Paul Bako, coming up behind him. It kinda blows to have a guy of Dunn's caliber taking a walk in that situation. I'd almost rather he swing at balls he otherwise would consider borderline, there. Who knows if that's not what he's already doing, though. It very well could be.

 

In a lineup like ours, though, I feel like he'd be a great fit (offensively, at least). When you have solid hitters throughout, walks are an awesome, awesome thing, and a hitter like Dunn fits better in that type of lineup than anywhere else, IMO.

Edited December 18, 2008 by David

[David]

I feel like what I said there is beyond too obvious so I hope what I was saying makes some sort of sense.

[Sammy Sofa]

Most people here hate Soriano?

 

That's an interesting declaration.

 

I know a lot really don't like his CONTRACT.

 

There's a difference.

 

I've never liked him as a player. Hate is too strong. It's unfortunate that Hendry left the OF so weak that he was practically forced to go out and get Soriano, who is about the opposite of the ideal star.

 

I didn't say that nobody here hates him or dislikes him as a player...I just take issue with the idea that "most people here" hate him as a player. You're not going to find anyone that isn't going to readily admit that he has his obvious flaws, but most criticisms beyond the obvious ones stem from the length and cost of his contract. I could never say that nobody hated him here so long as wrigley23 still posted.

[bcl412]

You should probably stop making the argument then that Dunn walking with a man on 3rd/less than 2 out is bad.

 

Also, stop placing so much stock into BA/RiSP. It's a meaningless and non predictive stat.

 

Also, do tell how a HR could drive in fewer runs than a single.

 

 

It's not a bad thing, but depending on the lineup he's in (and I'm opening a big can of worms here - and this somewhat goes against what I usually would argue because Dunn is such an extreme case), it's not all that great of a thing either if he has, say, Jeff Keppinger or Paul Bako, coming up behind him. It kinda blows to have a guy of Dunn's caliber taking a walk in that situation. I'd almost rather he swing at balls he otherwise would consider borderline, there. Who knows if that's not what he's already doing, though. It very well could be.

 

In a lineup like ours, though, I feel like he'd be a great fit (offensively, at least). When you have solid hitters throughout, walks are an awesome, awesome thing, and a hitter like Dunn fits better in that type of lineup than anywhere else, IMO.

 

But then him walking isn't really a knock on him. It's a knock on his team for sucking because they don't have the talent to drive him in.

 

"Shortening your swing" (whatever that means) isn't really a measurable statistic. What if he has done that the entire time he has played with Cincinnati and Arizona because bad managers told him to? What if him attempting to "shorten his swing" is accounting for the "poor numbers"?

[David]

Don't want him to shorten his swing. I want him to swing the hell out of the bat, even on two strikes, at balls he thinks are balls but might be strikes in THOSE particular situations.

 

Like I said, he might be doing that already. If he is, then I don't really have a point. I would hope he is.

 

And like you said, that argument is more of a knock on the lineup around him than it is on him, but I think it's a reality that comes with the type of hitter he is.

[jersey cubs fan]

Most people here hate Soriano?

 

That's an interesting declaration.

 

I know a lot really don't like his CONTRACT.

 

There's a difference.

 

I've never liked him as a player. Hate is too strong. It's unfortunate that Hendry left the OF so weak that he was practically forced to go out and get Soriano, who is about the opposite of the ideal star.

 

I didn't say that nobody here hates him or dislikes him as a player...I just take issue with the idea that "most people here" hate him as a player. You're not going to find anyone that isn't going to readily admit that he has his obvious flaws, but most criticisms beyond the obvious ones stem from the length and cost of his contract. I could never say that nobody hated him here so long as wrigley23 still posted.

 

Most criticisms stem from his horrible approach approach at the plate and defensive shenanigans and escalate with the contract. I don't know what the numbers are, but my guess is it would be pretty close to over 50% that dislike him as a player. As I said, hate is probably too severe. He does some good things, but he's incredibly frustrating.

[bcl412]

Don't want him to shorten his swing. I want him to swing the hell out of the bat, even on two strikes, at balls he thinks are balls but might be strikes in THOSE particular situations.

 

Like I said, he might be doing that already. If he is, then I don't really have a point. I would hope he is.

 

And like you said, that argument is more of a knock on the lineup around him than it is on him, but I think it's a reality that comes with the type of hitter he is.

 

The shorten his swing thing was more contending the original posters point. I don't want him to either because the idea of shortening your swing doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Swing a normal swing at good pitches seems more productive which ties with OBP

[David]

You should probably stop making the argument then that Dunn walking with a man on 3rd/less than 2 out is bad.

 

Also, stop placing so much stock into BA/RiSP. It's a meaningless and non predictive stat.

 

Also, do tell how a HR could drive in fewer runs than a single.

 

 

It's not a bad thing, but depending on the lineup he's in (and I'm opening a big can of worms here - and this somewhat goes against what I usually would argue because Dunn is such an extreme case), it's not all that great of a thing either if he has, say, Jeff Keppinger or Paul Bako, coming up behind him. It kinda blows to have a guy of Dunn's caliber taking a walk in that situation. I'd almost rather he swing at balls he otherwise would consider borderline, there. Who knows if that's not what he's already doing, though. It very well could be.

 

In a lineup like ours, though, I feel like he'd be a great fit (offensively, at least). When you have solid hitters throughout, walks are an awesome, awesome thing, and a hitter like Dunn fits better in that type of lineup than anywhere else, IMO.

 

By the way, I somehow totally managed to misread what US said as runners on with two outs (not man on 3rd/less than 2 out). Makes my case make even less sense. Sweet.