Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[Vanilla Ice]

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

scarey is cracking me up right now. home runs aren't production, but rbis are. epic

 

 

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau?

 

I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau?

 

Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line

Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line

 

Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year.

 

Morneau, and I never said he wasn't. My point is that him being better has absolutely nothing to do with RBIs. Nothing.

 

What makes him better?

 

He's just a better hitter. Lots of stats show this. None of them are RBIs. You really need to stop with this RBI stuff.

 

Show me one stat that shows he's a better hitter. I've actually already shown you one, and I can show you another if you want me to. I just want to know your argument on the topic besides "He's just a better hitter".

YOU GUYS ARE BOTH ARGUING THAT MORNEAU IS A BETTER HITTER.

[UK1679666180]

My main point here is OBP and SLG doesn't always trump everything. If it did, then people would be telling me that Dunn had the better season in 2008... which obviously people here have said otherwise.

 

If Dunn put up those numbers in the Hump dome, he would've had the better offensive season. If Morneau would've hit in Cincy & AZ, he would've likely had a higher OBP and SLG than Dunn. Defensively, Morneau is a plus defensive defender and Dunn is fringe at best.

[scarey]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

[17 Seconds]

Look guys, Dunn is a productive player. However, he gets a lot of his production from 1/2 run homers and fails again and again to get runners in when they're in scoring position.

 

ugh ugh ugh. If his production comes from "1/2 run homers", then why does he drive in so many runs in a low amount of at-bats? also, why are you acting like his extremely high OBP doesn't lead to runs? dusty? is that you?

 

so apparently a 2 run single is much more valuable than a 2 run home run

 

My main point here is OBP and SLG doesn't always trump everything. If it did, then people would be telling me that Dunn had the better season in 2008... which obviously people here have said otherwise

 

or it could have something to do with the fact that dunn hit in a hitters park and morneau hit in a pitchers park. if they both played in the same park this year and both kept the samre numbers, people would be saying dunn was better

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[17 Seconds]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

[samhainn77]

despite being just a first baseman, unless morneau is a butcher in the field, i'll have to go with him by a slim margin

 

Morneau is an above avg. defender at 1B, which is an underrated defensive position, IMO.

 

It's odd to try and use one of the best hitters in the AL to try and show how limited the value is of Dunn.

 

I can't believe how bad of a hitter Morneau is.... Who's better him or Pujols?

 

Please stop avoiding the question. I didn't ask you to compare the two for value. You guys are claiming that OBP and HRs are without a doubt under every circumstance the best possible stats to go by. I just showed you a guy, Morneau, that had a worse OBP and less HRs then Dunn. All I'm asking for is your judgment on who had a better offensive year. Is that a reason to be a wise guy about it?

 

 

 

Who on earth claimed OBP and HRs are the best possible stats to go by? Do you know how OPS is calculated? HRs are only part of SLG.

 

Ok, do you want to shift it over to slugging? The only reason I was bringing up HRs was because I made a statement earlier:

 

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production

 

And people were amused by the statement. So I was trying to make the argument that HRs doen't always make the best production... and Morneau proves that. Unless you've decided that Dunn had the better season, then we can continue with the "HRs =/= production" argument.

 

If you concede the point, then I'll move on to slugging (which, btw, Dunn had a better slugging%... do you still think Morneau had the better offensive season?).

 

Look guys, Dunn is a productive player. However, he gets a lot of his production from 1/2 run homers and fails again and again to get runners in when they're in scoring position. All I'm saying is, don't expect him to come through for you in a big situation unless you need a walk (which, I concede, there's many occasions where you need a walk).

 

My main point here is OBP and SLG doesn't always trump everything. If it did, then people would be telling me that Dunn had the better season in 2008... which obviously people here have said otherwise.

 

EDIT: Typed in the middle of a quote.

 

Clearly I won't concede that point. 4 bases in 1 PA is production...but so is 3, 2, and 1. Yes dunn had a higher OBP and SLG than morneau, but after you adjust for park and league, Morneau gets the edge.

 

WTF, I just realized how much time I am putting in to this...you know what? You just keep lookin at conventional stats. As long as you aren't the GM of the Cubs, I don't care.

Edited December 16, 2008 by samhainn77

[UK1679666180]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

Were Chan Ho Park, Adrian Beltre, Soriano, Driefort, A. Jones, Pierre, etc. good signings?

 

You're acting as if the decisions made by GMs are fool-proof b/c they are baseball-lifers. Why did 28 GMs overlook Carlos Quinten last year?

 

Have the Cubs ever made a move that you disagreed with?

[scarey]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

[UK1679666180]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me.

 

Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made?

Edited December 16, 2008 by UK

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

For 2008, Morneau was the better hitter (308 Eqa) than Dunn (300 Eqa). However, in 2007, Dunn (312 Eqa) was a much better hitter than Morneau (294 Eqa). In 2006, Morneau (314 Eqa) had a large edge to Dunn (286), but in 2005 Dunn (308 Eqa) was much superior to Morneau(261 Eqa).

 

Considering all of the evidence we have, I'd put them almost equal going forward. It's likely that they will have very similar production. Either one could out produce the other, in my opinion.

[17 Seconds]

f

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

scarey is cracking me up right now. home runs aren't production, but rbis are. epic

 

 

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau?

 

I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau?

 

Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line

Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line

 

Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year.

 

Morneau, and I never said he wasn't. My point is that him being better has absolutely nothing to do with RBIs. Nothing.

 

What makes him better?

 

He's just a better hitter. Lots of stats show this. None of them are RBIs. You really need to stop with this RBI stuff.

 

Show me one stat that shows he's a better hitter. I've actually already shown you one, and I can show you another if you want me to. I just want to know your argument on the topic besides "He's just a better hitter".

 

no, you didn't show me one. you showed me one that you thought showed it, when really it showed absolutely nothing. i can't believe you're really talking about rbis so much. raul ibanez had more rbis than aramis last year. who was a better hitter?

 

here's a stat though that actually does show morneau was better last year

 

morneau- 137 ops+

dunn- 129 ops+

[scarey]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me.

 

Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made?

 

No.

 

But I'm man enough to admit that I'm not in the position to say they were wrong... at least until hindsight.

[17 Seconds]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

why are you spinning everything around? i never said i knew more. that doesn't mean you can't understand when a gm is making a mistake. your arguments are becoming progressibly more weak and irrelevant.

[17 Seconds]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me.

 

Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made?

 

No.

 

But I'm man enough to admit that I'm not in the position to say they were wrong... at least until hindsight.

 

so you won't say that those guys were bad singing because you're a man? either that or you just don't want to amdit the very obvious truth. when those conbtracts were signed everybody knew they were bad...and guess what? it turns out they were, in fact, bad.

[samhainn77]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

 

Lol, you certainly have some interesting arguments. This reminds me of the Mr. Show skit: More many than = smarter than. "Way to go, Einstein!" That show was awesome.

[SouthSideRyan]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me.

 

Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made?

 

No.

 

But I'm man enough to admit that I'm not in the position to say they were wrong... at least until hindsight.

 

It doesn't take hindsight to call baseball lifer Ned Coletti a buffoon for signing Pierre to a 5 year contract. It doesn't take hindsight to call worked his way up through the system Dave Littlefield a drooling moron for trading for Matt Morris.

 

Did Nate Baliva get b& or something and have to re-register?

[17 Seconds]

i like how scarey has been answering/responding to a smaller and smaller amount of points made my other posters has this thread has progressed. the fact that he had resorted to the "they are gms and know more" argument is pretty telling.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever.

 

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. Devaluing BA to the point of nothingness is just plain stupid. But hey, maybe we can just walk our way around the bases all day, that'd be fun.

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Both Dunn and Justin Morneau have 10 at bats with a runner on third (completely hypothetical). In 5 of those 10, Dunn hits a home run. The other five he strikes out. Morneau, on the other hand, hits a single in 8 of those 10 ABs. The other two he strikes out.

 

In this example, Dunn has a batting average of .500 and Morneau has a BA of .800. Who is more productive solely on that stat? Morneau.

 

Problem is, Dunn actually created 10 runs, whereas Morneau created just 8 - therefore Dunn truly was more productive even with the lower batting average. That's why it's extremely important to not just look at how often a player gets a hit (what batting average shows), but what kind of hits those are (what slugging percentage and OPS show).

 

When somebody can start including all variables in stats, I'll listen.

 

Until then, what? You'll account for no variables and trust your eyes?

[UK1679666180]

My point has been that Dunn is vastly undervalued by GMs and people in general

 

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out.

 

Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

 

using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano?

 

do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence

 

Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

 

Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me.

 

Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made?

 

No.

 

But I'm man enough to admit that I'm not in the position to say they were wrong... at least until hindsight.

 

You just did admit you haven't agreed with every trade the Cubs have made, regardless of being a fan or a member of a front office, you are going to formulate an opinion of whether one team got the better end of a trade regardless of baseball background, it's human nature. That opinion is likely based on your baseball ideals and whether you've been following the game for 50 days by reading the back of baseball cards, scouting for 50 years, or creating baseball statistical formulas for the last 25 years, you're going to form an opinion on the game.

 

It's not about right or wrong, it's about creating logical reasons why you agree/disagree with a roster move and discussing it on those merits. No one is saying they are smarter or would do a better job than a GM.

Edited December 16, 2008 by UK

[samhainn77]

 

Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever.

 

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. Devaluing BA to the point of nothingness is just plain stupid. But hey, maybe we can just walk our way around the bases all day, that'd be fun.

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Both Dunn and Justin Morneau have 10 at bats with a runner on third (completely hypothetical). In 5 of those 10, Dunn hits a home run. The other five he strikes out. Morneau, on the other hand, hits a single in 8 of those 10 ABs. The other two he strikes out.

 

In this example, Dunn has a batting average of .500 and Morneau has a BA of .800. Who is more productive solely on that stat? Morneau.

 

Problem is, Dunn actually created 10 runs, whereas Morneau created just 8 - therefore Dunn truly was more productive even with the lower batting average. That's why it's extremely important to not just look at how often a player gets a hit (what batting average shows), but what kind of hits those are (what slugging percentage and OPS show).

 

When somebody can start including all variables in stats, I'll listen.

 

Until then, what? You'll account for no variables and trust your eyes?

 

Wayne Krivsky says it's a combination of eyes, tarot cards, names out of a hat, and RBI.

[scarey]

morneau- 137 ops+

dunn- 129 ops+

 

 

Thanks, that's all I'm looking for.

 

I did show you some stats before, although they're not conventional.

 

Every 2.3 times Morneau came to the plate with RISP (which he had 230 PAs with RISP), he was able to knock in a run.

 

Dunn, in comparison, was only able to score a runner in every 2.8 plate appearances with RISP (out of 182).

 

This is a big reason why I think Morneau had a better season then Dunn.

 

So, RBI totals do not tell the whole story, I agree. Sometimes a player cannot help if his team gets into scoring position enough to help him to drive up RBI totals. However, when given a good opportunity to drive in a runner, Morneau was able to judge the situation and do what he had to do to get a runner in more often then Dunn. This takes the whole "RBIs is a team stat" argument and normalizes it to show what a specific player can do in the given situation.

 

Now, given the fact that Dunn's number was 2.8, I'm actually fairly impressed. It's still not on par with what most of the run producers are capable of (many that I've researched are at 2.5 plate appearances per RBI), but Dunn performed well above his career mark in this stat which is 3.4. Does that mean he's evolving his game? Maybe, and if that's the case I can be more receptive to the idea of bringing him in.

 

 

 

The other stat I was going to use was %of RBIs with runners in scoring position. Dunn drove in 65% of his runs from RISP while Morneau drove in 77% of his runs from RISP. However, I can see why this is a flawed stat because for one thing, Morneau can have his % driven up because of increased opportunities with RISP, while Dunn can drive his number down based on the higher HR total and scoring RBIs when runners are not in scoring position.

 

 

Just think a little bit more about these things guys. OBP and SLG don't tell the whole story about how effective a player is. Hell, OPS+ either for that matter. In fact, no stat can tell you the whole story. But, collecting a greater variety of data can help more to understand how a player performs.

[17 Seconds]

most of hitting with risp is just luck, and not lucthness/unlcutchness. of course dunn's BA with risp is low, so is his overall average.

[scarey]

It's not about right or wrong, it's about creating logical reasons why you agree/disagree with a roster move and discussing it on those merits. No one is saying they are smarter or would do a better job than a GM.

 

I agree with most of what you said in that post. It's not really about right or wrong, it's about ideals. However, that being said a baseball GM is in a position to make a better evaluation on a player based on the time and financial investment (it's their well-being after all) they put into it. I would count on the collective values of MLB GMs to make decisions that would lead to success.

 

...and from what I can tell, MLB GMs collectively do not think much of Adam Dunn. I'm sorry if people are offended by that, but that's just what I observe. There may be a secret Adam Dunn fan club that I'm not aware of, but from what I perceive, he is not valued among the professionals.

[UMFan83]

You guys are still arguing about this?

[scarey]

most of hitting with risp is just luck, and not lucthness/unlcutchness. of course dunn's BA with risp is low, so is his overall average.

 

Well, then I guess I'll go with Morneau cause he's lucky then. In 940 career PA (just so you don't argue sample size), Morneau has had 2.5 PA per RBI with RISP.

 

Dunn in 1322 PA has 3.4 PA per RBI with RISP.

 

You call it luck, I call it Morneau putting more of an emphasis on putting the ball in play to try and score a runner. Either way, I still say that it's a reason why Morneau is a better hitter.