Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[Banedon]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

Just to back this up:

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/12/03/theres-plenty-of-interest-in-adam-dunn/

 

As it stands right now, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Braves, Mariners, Nationals, and maybe even Yankees are all interested in Dunn while the Dodgers and Angels are keeping him in mind should they fail to sign Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. That's plenty of interest and I doubt the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or Nationals would be all that worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

I, too, doubt that any of those clubs are worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

You know, because he wasn't offered arbitration.

 

Yeah...I posted it to show the level of interest, but he didn't exactly show his breadth of knowledge there, did he?

 

Actually, he did. That was his point. From earlier in the article:

 

The D'Backs gave up three players for less than 200 at-bats of Dunn. Why wouldn't they want the two draft picks he'd pull in as a Type A free agent? Surely some team would be willing to give up a pick for a slugger like Dunn.

 

He was showing that there was so much interest in Dunn and especially interest from certain teams that the interest would not just go away if the Diamondbacks had offered him arbitration. Basically, there was no risk of him accepting arbitration, so it was silly for Arizona to not offer it.

 

Gotcha. I skimmed to the part I was looking for...and out of context it didn't really hold up.

[samhainn77]

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

If your point is that nobody here knows anything for sure, then I guess I'll concede. We'll just see how this thing unravels.

 

One last comment. I see a lot of people that make assumptions that because a person doesn't like the way Dunn plays the game, they do not value OBP. It's not all about not liking OBP and really more about making contact on some ABs where he strikes out. Sure, taking the walk is great in virtually every situation, but striking out gives you ZERO chance to keep the inning going. The guy gives himself zero chance way too much when all it would take is cutting his swing down to make contact.

 

 

But a flyout gives you a chance of extending the inning? I don't get that. Are you talking about guys getting bloop hits and finding holes because they make contact?

 

Yes. This is the basis for virtually every Cub player since Lou has arrived. Make sure to make contact first in a two strike count. It gives them an opportunity for a bloop hit, an erratic ground ball that finds a hole, or every once in a while an infield hit or error. I'm not saying any player should count on getting on base that way, but I know for sure it gives you a tremendously better chance than making an out at the plate and that this approach has a significant effect on a players results.

 

That might be useful in determining how good a player might ened up being, but Dunn has established that he'll put up his numbers despite the strikeouts.

 

I don't understand how putting the ball in play is only helpful in determining how good a player might end up and cannot help a player like Dunn.

 

I think people too often still associate strikeouts with guys like Soriano who have no discipline and just swing at everything.

 

Disagree. In Dunn's case, I can only assume it's a matter of baseball smarts. The guy fails to score runners in scoring position and strikes out in that situation A LOT. If he were to try to make contact first, who knows? Maybe he hits a bloop that scores a guy from second more often. Maybe he gets a sac fly now and then. Maybe he fouls off pitches until he gets a good one to hit. His strikeouts have nothing to do with plate discipline and I know it.

 

One more thing... it sounds like you think people like Dunn for his on base skills alone. It's like you're leaving out the fact that he hits 40 bombs every year in a low amount of at-bats.

 

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production. 40 HRs is pretty, I can't deny, but look at a guy like Justin Morneau. He only hit 23 HRs. But, he drove in 29 more RBIs then Dunn did. Why? I can't tell you for sure, but I can guess it has at least a little bit to do with the fact that he struck out 80 times less then Dunn did. I'm not saying all of his production is from cutting down his swing, but I think it had a big effect on it.

 

 

RBIs? Really?

[Lefty]

Until the use of the term "RBI" triggers an automatic freeze of one's posting privileges it will continue.

[davearm2]

RE: Dunn vs. Morneau.

 

OBI% to the rescue (OBI=Others Batted In).

 

Morneau: 9.0% 22.3% 42.2% 19.0%

Dunn: 9.9% 13.0% 32.1% 15.6%

 

In English, Morneau knocked in 9.0% of runners on first, 22.3% of runners on second, 42.2% of runners on third, and 19.0% of all runners on.

 

Dunn was worse in every category except runners on first (owing to Dunn's higher # of HRs, naturally).

[Backtobanks]

RE: Dunn vs. Morneau.

 

OBI% to the rescue (OBI=Others Batted In).

 

Morneau: 9.0% 22.3% 42.2% 19.0%

Dunn: 9.9% 13.0% 32.1% 15.6%

 

In English, Morneau knocked in 9.0% of runners on first, 22.3% of runners on second, 42.2% of runners on third, and 19.0% of all runners on.

 

Dunn was worse in every category except runners on first (owing to Dunn's higher # of HRs, naturally).

 

In other words, if only Dunn made contact more often. I stand by my statement, DH was designed for hitters like Dunn. Put him in the lineup (not in the field) and he'll hit 40 HRs, strike out 200 times, walk about 100 times, and not much else. Putting him on the field diminishes any positive offensive numbers that he produces.

[davearm2]

RE: Dunn vs. Morneau.

 

OBI% to the rescue (OBI=Others Batted In).

 

Morneau: 9.0% 22.3% 42.2% 19.0%

Dunn: 9.9% 13.0% 32.1% 15.6%

 

In English, Morneau knocked in 9.0% of runners on first, 22.3% of runners on second, 42.2% of runners on third, and 19.0% of all runners on.

 

Dunn was worse in every category except runners on first (owing to Dunn's higher # of HRs, naturally).

 

In other words, if only Dunn made contact more often. I stand by my statement, DH was designed for hitters like Dunn. Put him in the lineup (not in the field) and he'll hit 40 HRs, strike out 200 times, walk about 100 times, and not much else. Putting him on the field diminishes any positive offensive numbers that he produces.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that DH was designed for fielders like Dunn. ;)

 

The larger point is that Dunn's offensive game has some deficiencies that his slash stats don't immediately reveal, and that some folks seem reluctant to concede.

 

That said, Dunn's OBI numbers have improved quite a bit the last few years. He used to be very near the bottom of the league, and now he's up into average territory.

[javy knows my name]

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production

sigged

[AZCub]

Screw Adam Dunn. He’s a lifeless, stat hawking terd that gives saberdorks a stiffy and drives people who actually watch baseball games absolutely insane because he’s an unclutch, K crazy beefchunk that brings little value outside of being able to watch a ball go past him, or watch a ball go over a fence.

 

Forget him. He’s a bum, and any conversation revolving around him is entirely annoying because very few people are willing to admit that there needs to be a happy medium between stats and an actual baseball game. The happy medium with Dunn? He’s a solid and productive offensive player who is wretched defensively, has a tiny scrote when the situation dictates the need to knock runs in, and a completely wrong fit for this team.

 

If he comes at a decent price, then fine, bring him. If it’s a monster contract, no thanks. The mere possibility of Soriano and Dunn going a combined 1 for 27 with 22 Ks in a playoff series makes me want to vomit profusely.

[scarey]

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production

sigged

 

You're a fool if you think HRs = production. Sorry, but if you've read the last few posts, you'd see that a guy like Morneau will always out produce Dunn... no matter what lineup each is respectively in.

[inari]

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production

sigged

 

You're a fool if you think HRs = production. Sorry, but if you've read the last few posts, you'd see that a guy like Morneau will always out produce Dunn... no matter what lineup each is respectively in.

 

I read the last few posts and.. well, I definitely don't see that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

[AZCub]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

[inari]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

 

They praise Dunn and don't like Soriano because Dunn is a much better hitter, and other than the fact that they have a lot of power and strikeout they have basically nothing in common.

[nilodnayr]

RE: Dunn vs. Morneau.

 

OBI% to the rescue (OBI=Others Batted In).

 

Morneau: 9.0% 22.3% 42.2% 19.0%

Dunn: 9.9% 13.0% 32.1% 15.6%

 

In English, Morneau knocked in 9.0% of runners on first, 22.3% of runners on second, 42.2% of runners on third, and 19.0% of all runners on.

 

Dunn was worse in every category except runners on first (owing to Dunn's higher # of HRs, naturally).

 

In other words, if only Dunn made contact more often. I stand by my statement, DH was designed for hitters like Dunn. Put him in the lineup (not in the field) and he'll hit 40 HRs, strike out 200 times, walk about 100 times, and not much else. Putting him on the field diminishes any positive offensive numbers that he produces.

 

About half. his defense diminishes about half of the positive of his offense.

 

Which ain't bad compared to Ibanez, whos defense truly does diminish all positive impact from their offense (or Abreu whos close).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

 

Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever. His OPS w/ RISP is .890(he also strikes out less than his career rate). .883 w/ RISP and 2 outs(and an even lower K rate). .911 in Tie games, 1.371 in extra innings, .942 w/ man on 3rd < 2 outs, you could go on forever, and in all of those he has a better K rate than his average, not that it particularly matters.

 

People don't hate Soriano and praise Dunn profusely. And Dunn and Soriano are not comparable players in the slightest.

[AZCub]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

 

They praise Dunn and don't like Soriano because Dunn is a much better hitter, and other than the fact that they have a lot of power and strikeout they have basically nothing in common.

 

Poor defense? Both.

Strikes out a ton? Both.

Lots of Power? Both.

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

Speed? Soriano Yes, Dunn No.

Injuries? Dunn No, Soriano Yes.

Walks? Dunn Yes, Soriano marginal at best.

 

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe? Does he have a better wardrobe? Does he keep his locker more clean and tidy? Because I am pretty sure that covers pretty much all value ON the field, and there isn't much of a difference besides the walks/injury history.

[AZCub]

 

Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever.

 

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. Devaluing BA to the point of nothingness is just plain stupid. But hey, maybe we can just walk our way around the bases all day, that'd be fun.

[imb]

lots to like here

 

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe?

 

there will be blood

[AZCub]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

[MSG T]

lots to like here

 

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe?

 

there will be blood

 

Not trying to be Mr. Smart Guy, but why the comparison of Dunn to either

 

A) guys we already have(the Soriano comparison, they aren't even remotely similar)

or

B) guys were never going to get( Morneau)

 

I'm more interested in how he compares to Bradley, which has at least been addressed some, Abreu, Burrell or any other guy that there's at least a minute possibility of playing RF for the Cubs next year.

[dew1679666265]

 

Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever.

 

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. Devaluing BA to the point of nothingness is just plain stupid. But hey, maybe we can just walk our way around the bases all day, that'd be fun.

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Both Dunn and Justin Morneau have 10 at bats with a runner on third (completely hypothetical). In 5 of those 10, Dunn hits a home run. The other five he strikes out. Morneau, on the other hand, hits a single in 8 of those 10 ABs. The other two he strikes out.

 

In this example, Dunn has a batting average of .500 and Morneau has a BA of .800. Who is more productive solely on that stat? Morneau.

 

Problem is, Dunn actually created 10 runs, whereas Morneau created just 8 - therefore Dunn truly was more productive even with the lower batting average. That's why it's extremely important to not just look at how often a player gets a hit (what batting average shows), but what kind of hits those are (what slugging percentage and OPS show).

[imb]

lots to like here

 

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe?

 

there will be blood

 

Not trying to be Mr. Smart Guy, but why the comparison of Dunn to either

 

A) guys we already have(the Soriano comparison, they aren't even remotely similar)

or

B) guys were never going to get( Morneau)

 

I'm more interested in how he compares to Bradley, which has at least been addressed some, Abreu, Burrell or any other guy that there's at least a minute possibility of playing RF for the Cubs next year.

 

hell if i know. i guess he's trying to compare him to a guy he assumes everyone hates in some weird attempt to make dunn look worse than he is

[Derwood]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

fantastic

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe? Does he have a better wardrobe? Does he keep his locker more clean and tidy? Because I am pretty sure that covers pretty much all value ON the field, and there isn't much of a difference besides the walks/injury history.

 

Dunn is a completely different hitter in that he approaches at bats a completely different way. Dunn strikes out a ton and walks a ton, both byproducts of him taking pitches to get deep into counts. He looks for a pitch he can drive, and if he doesn't get it early in the count, he doesn't swing. When he gets deep into counts, he still looks to drive the ball, and remains selective. This leads to the walks, the K's(swinging and looking), and the extra base hits(reflected by his obscene IsoP).

 

Soriano on the other hand, approaches hitting not unlike a trained labradoodle. He sees the pitch, if he can hit it, he swings at it indiscriminately, and as hard as he can. This leads to the extra base hits, the strikeouts(swinging but rarely looking), but not the walks.

 

When they're at the plate, Dunn is playing chess while Soriano is coloring outside the lines in a book of crossword puzzles.

[scarey]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00

 

And... hi! I know who you are :D