Car Jumping Joey Gathright a Cub?

[17 Seconds]

You guys do know that Colin knows more about sabermetrics (and particularly defensive metrics and the true value of defense) than anyone else on the board, right?

 

Arguing that Gathright is better than those guys mentioned is a pretty perfect example of how flawed defensive metrics are

 

seriously, it's joey gathright. good lord

 

thats a pretty convincing argument

 

you shouldn't even have to argue something like that. it's like arguing that pujols is better than juan pierre. whats the point

[nilodnayr]

Joey Gathright, who was non-tendered by the Royals on Friday, is likely to join the Cubs as a reserve.

 

Assuming that they do sign a right fielder, the Cubs' bench already seem to be pretty crowded with Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome, Micah Hoffpauir and the backup catcher. It wouldn't make sense to bump any of those guys for Gathright.

 

Rotoworld gets it. Even if Gathright would be a decent signing for someone as a back up, we really dont have a use or a spot for him.

 

Considering the last few guys in our bullpen will have options, I would like to see us use an 11 man pitching staff and rotate the pen with Iowa as needed. We could have a bench of whoever isn't playing in the Reed/Fukudome platoon, Hoff, Font, Cedeno, Gathright, backup catcher. (assuming Pie is traded)

[nilodnayr]

You guys do know that Colin knows more about sabermetrics (and particularly defensive metrics and the true value of defense) than anyone else on the board, right?

 

Arguing that Gathright is better than those guys mentioned is a pretty perfect example of how flawed defensive metrics are

 

seriously, it's joey gathright. good lord

 

thats a pretty convincing argument

 

you shouldn't even have to argue something like that. it's like arguing that pujols is better than juan pierre. whats the point

 

yeah, its like arguing the earth is flat, duh hickey

[El Rojito]

You guys do know that Colin knows more about sabermetrics (and particularly defensive metrics and the true value of defense) than anyone else on the board, right?

Number one, that's opinion, not fact. Number two, if that were the case, then what's the point of even having a conversation on a message board? He could post front page articles and they'd be gospel. No point in having discussion.

Point taken. Perhaps I should have said that Colin knows more than just about anybody else on the board. What I'm getting at is:

 

Prima facie, what Colin is saying here is may strike us as ridiculous. But since Colin is extremely knowledgeable we shouldn't dismiss it outright just because it doesn't fit into our existing frame of what is valuable in a baseball game.

 

For years (and unfortunately in many circles to this day) batting average, RBIs, and pitchers' W-L records were considered to be among the most important statistics with which one could judge the value of a player. Thankfully, OBP, OPS+, WHIP, and more advanced sabermetrics are beginning to take precedence.

 

However, I think most would agree that our understanding of defense, including reliable defensive metrics and grasping the true value of defense, lags far behind our understanding of offense and pitching.

 

So, since Colin is so knowledgeable about these areas, if you disagree with his assertion back it up with some statistics rather than just dismissing it outright.

[El Rojito]

I should add:

 

I don't know that Gathright would be as good an option as Colin suggests he is, but I do know that I know a lot less than Colin does about advanced metrics.

[ChiCubsfan0502]

It's official. A 1 year deal has been signed, terms not disclosed. This was reported by Bruce Levine a few minutes ago.

[CUBZ99]

I should add:

 

I don't know that Gathright would be as good an option as Colin suggests he is, but I do know that I know a lot less than Colin does about advanced metrics.

 

That may be, but I would want to see some explanation of his theory other than just a blank statement saying that Gathright is better than 3 of the 4 FA's the Cubs are looking at. DexterMorgan makes some good points, from an observer's standpoint, if you told me that Gathright was a better overall option at RF than Abreau, Bradley, Ibanez, and Hermedia, I would think you were an idiot.

 

In regard to where the Cubs stand now, looking at the overall offensive stats and my layman understanding of defensive metrics, I would find it hard to believe that Gathright would even be a better overall option than Fukudome, Pie, or Johnson. Hard to see how this move is an upgrade in any manner.

[davearm2]

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but Lou is familiar with Gathright from their days together in Tampa. That probably played a part in this.

Is he familiar with any players that DON'T suck?

Probably none from his Tampa days ;)

[sneakypower]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

[CubColtPacer]

I just don't understand where he is going to fit. Even if he takes Pie's spot..there wasn't enough room for Pie on the bench. Are they planning to have Gathright and Hoffpauir fight it out for the final spot on the bench?

 

I can see Gathright being a 5th OF. But the Cubs limited bench has meant that they haven't been able to carry a 5th OF for years, and I'm skeptical that roster change will happen now.

[Jehrico]

You guys do know that Colin knows more about sabermetrics (and particularly defensive metrics and the true value of defense) than anyone else on the board, right?

Number one, that's opinion, not fact. Number two, if that were the case, then what's the point of even having a conversation on a message board? He could post front page articles and they'd be gospel. No point in having discussion.

Point taken. Perhaps I should have said that Colin knows more than just about anybody else on the board. What I'm getting at is:

 

Prima facie, what Colin is saying here is may strike us as ridiculous. But since Colin is extremely knowledgeable we shouldn't dismiss it outright just because it doesn't fit into our existing frame of what is valuable in a baseball game.

 

For years (and unfortunately in many circles to this day) batting average, RBIs, and pitchers' W-L records were considered to be among the most important statistics with which one could judge the value of a player. Thankfully, OBP, OPS+, WHIP, and more advanced sabermetrics are beginning to take precedence.

 

However, I think most would agree that our understanding of defense, including reliable defensive metrics and grasping the true value of defense, lags far behind our understanding of offense and pitching.

 

So, since Colin is so knowledgeable about these areas, if you disagree with his assertion back it up with some statistics rather than just dismissing it outright.

First, I didn't disagree with him at all. Two, I think you're take the concept of an internet message board waaaaay to seriously. It's a bit pompous to declare to the board who the smartest person is and that everyone should respect their opinions.

[nilodnayr]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

 

No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright.

 

Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Someone explain the car jumping thing?

[davearm2]

OBLIGATORY

Car jumping thing explained

[Colin Wyers]

Let's break this down.

 

I split the difference between his Marcels and Bill James projected wOBA, and let's say he'll put up a .305 wOBA, so to convert out to runs in a season:

 

(.305-.338)/1.15 * 650 = -18

 

Or roughly a replacement-level hitter, maybe a little better. (All estimates of hitting are relative to league, not position - we add in a positional adjustment separately.) So now let's look at defense.

 

Eyeballing UZR/150, let’s say he’s +10 in CF. Then give him a positional bonus - I use +2.5 for playing CF. So to convert to runs above replacement, we add a replacement level bonus - +20 for the National League and +25 for the American League. Add it all together:

 

-18+10+2.5+25=19.5

 

Voila, a league-average player in the NL, a bit below in the American League.

 

And then you leave Fukudome in RF (you can do the same chaining with Dome - I think it's about +10 on defense, 0 on offense, and -7.5 for position - nowhere near as bad as most people think).

 

Ok, now let's look at Ibanez.

 

(.345-.338)/1.15 * 650 = 4

 

Again, looking at his UZR/150 for the past 3 seasons and regressing to the mean a bit, we get -10 runs or so defensively in a corner outfield, and another -7.5 for position. +25 rep-level bonus for an AL player:

 

4-10-7.5+25=11.5

 

Or roughly a win below average.

 

Abreu:

 

(.366-.338)/1.15 * 650 = 16

 

Again, looking at UZR/150, -15 on defense in an outfield corner and another -7.5 for position. +25 rep-level bonus for an AL player:

 

16-15-7.5+25=18.5

 

So it's a bit closer between Abreu and Gathright - Gathright likely gets a bit of a bonus for baserunning that I'm not accounting for here. Then you start getting into the fact that Abreu's older and the fact that Abreu wants an absurd contract.

 

Bradley is a different animal - it's not that he isn't a better player than Gathright, it's that he's a much more fragile player.

[davearm2]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

 

No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright.

 

Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

Wait a minute here.

 

You just laid out for us a bunch of win stats that indicate Ibanez = -1, Abreu = 0, Dunn = 1, Bradley = unknown, Gathright = 2.

 

And then you followed that up with, "I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF."

 

So do you not believe your own win estimates?

 

The numbers you laid out don't really pass the smell test, and you seem to confirm they're bogus with the followup quote.

[El Rojito]

First, I didn't disagree with him at all. Two, I think you're take the concept of an internet message board waaaaay to seriously. It's a bit pompous to declare to the board who the smartest person is and that everyone should respect their opinions.

1) Sorry: I should have made it clear that I wasn't necessarily addressing you personally, but rather the "royal you" in attempting to clarify my original point, which was: "we [the royal we] shouldn't be so flippant in dismissing Colin's point, since he knows his stuff."

 

2) I stepped back from my original assertion which was hyperbole. But I think we can agree that Colin does know his stuff. We can disagree with his conclusions, but if we are then we should probably address his methods to show why we disagree.

 

Anyways, back to Gathright...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I just don't understand where he is going to fit. Even if he takes Pie's spot..there wasn't enough room for Pie on the bench. Are they planning to have Gathright and Hoffpauir fight it out for the final spot on the bench?

 

I can see Gathright being a 5th OF. But the Cubs limited bench has meant that they haven't been able to carry a 5th OF for years, and I'm skeptical that roster change will happen now.

 

I guess if you platoon Kosuke and Johnson, then had a 3 man grouping of Gathright/DeRosa/Fontenot, the bench works out as Gathright/Fontenot, Cedeno/other SS backup, Hoffpauir, Johnson, backup C.

[mhuber92211]

Terms are 1 yera $800K per cubs.com

[sneakypower]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

 

No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright.

 

Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

oh ok, i misread your first post

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's official. Yay us.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm sure it's been said in this thread before but how is this guy any better than Pie?

[El Rojito]

I'm sure it's been said in this thread before but how is this guy any better than Pie?

As far as I can tell, he's not. But Pie ostensibly still has a little bit of trade value, so I can only assume this signing means that Pie will be traded.

[nilodnayr]

Ibanez is plus 1 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly negative 1 LF'er.

 

Abreu is plus 1.5 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing neutral value or so on the bases. So a roughly 0 RF'er.

 

Dunn is plus 3 win on offense and negative 1.5 win on defense with I'm guessing negative a half a win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 1 LF'er.

 

Bradley is plus on both offense and defense, but as TT said, you have to scale that down for playing time, which is anyones guess, so I'm not even going to provide #s (but even in limited playing time is probably better than all the above)

 

Gathright is negative 1 win on offense and positive 2 win on corner OF defense (1 win in CF) with I'm guessing positive 1 win or so on the bases. So a roughly plus 2 corner OF, plus 1 CF.

 

All of the above #s are rough.

 

If hes used solely as a double switch pinch runner defensive replacement, then Lou can utilize his postivite attributes (speed on the bases and defense) without having to have him bat. As mentioned before, he takes over for Pie when Pie gets traded. Thats a good use of resources.

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF

 

No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright.

 

Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

Wait a minute here.

 

You just laid out for us a bunch of win stats that indicate Ibanez = -1, Abreu = 0, Dunn = 1, Bradley = unknown, Gathright = 2.

 

And then you followed that up with, "I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF."

 

So do you not believe your own win estimates?

 

The numbers you laid out don't really pass the smell test, and you seem to confirm they're bogus with the followup quote.

 

Holy "the world is black and white" Batman!!

 

Theres a difference between bogus and "take into consideration with other pieces of information".

 

I have continued to say that I'd want Bradley, who clearly when on the field is better than any other option, and it appears as though the Cubs are setting themselves up to have as little as a drop off as possible when Bradley is off the field. I'd much prefer that approach than to get a guy who isn't going to provide positive value (Ibanez), going to provide a bit of positive value (Abreu), or near market value (Dunn).

[Post Count Padder]

Cubs signed outfielder Joey Gathright, who had been with the Royals, to a one-year contract.

 

Ideally, Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson and Felix Pie would all outplay Gathright next season and the Cubs would never have reason to turn to the speedster on their way to the first World Series victory since 1908. Ideally. Gathright fell from .307/.371/.342 in 228 at-bats in 2007 to .254/.311/.272 in 279 at-bats last season for the Royals. There's nothing wrong with carrying him as a 25th man, but he looks like a downgrade for the Cubs bench. His signing would seem to guarantee that Pie will head back to Triple-A, but that already appeared set to happen.