College Football - Championship Week

[ConstableRabbit]

I was going to suggest using the strength of North teams faced as a tiebreaker, but those are actually tied for all 3 teams in the South as well(Texas would've been ahead had either Mizzou or Colorado hung on to win this weekend).

 

Since you're dying to know, Mizzou's Offensive Coordinator Dave Christensen took the head coaching job at Wyoming. He's staying to coach through the bowl game.

 

Speaking of Bowl Games, Mizzou is locked into theirs now. They win Saturday(lol) and go to the Fiesta, they lose Saturday and go to the Alamo to face either Iowa or Northwestern, according to the Alamo Bowl selection committee.

 

Hopefully Eberflus gets that Toledo job.

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

What's even more garbage is that 9-3 Northwestern is going to end up in the Alamo bowl, and 8-4 Iowa (whom Northwestern beat -- on the road) will go to the Outback Bowl.

 

Wealthy fans who don't get to go to bowls every year travel well too!

[Mephistopheles]

How much ground does Florida need to make up in the computers on Texas to pass them in the BCS? And what are the possible amounts of ground they make up by beating Bama?

 

It's tough to say since we don't know the breakdown of the votes by the coaches. Let's assume that Florida is #1 and Texas is #2 in the polls on everyone's ballot. This isn't going to happen, obviously, but the difference between the two is going to be similar. Let's also make the further assumption that Oklahoma is #2 on everyone's ballot and a win over Missouri won't cause Oklahoma to get jumped by Texas in a computer, which is a fair hypothesis. Obviously Oklahoma and Texas can't both be number two on every ballot, but it's a good estimate of what the average is going to be, they're going to be tied, or so.

 

If Texas is #2 on every computer and Oklahoma is #1 on every computer, then Florida will need a computer average of .8800 or higher to catch Texas. A .8800 computer average corresponds to being on, on average, ranked #4 in the computers. Right now they're ranked, on average, fifth in the computers, behind Alabama and Utah as well as Texas and Oklahoma. If we make the further assumption that Florida won't finish behind Alabama in the computers with a win over them, then yes it looks like Florida will barely catch Texas.

 

Let's go ahead and make some projections of the BCS computers. We can make a relatively accurate estimate of the impact of a Florida win over Alabama by looking at how much each individual computer acted after the Oklahoma win over Texas Tech (and also the Texas win over Oklahoma).

 

So first let's look at Anderson and Hester computer rankings. Right now the A&H rankings are Alabama, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Florida in that order.

 

.811 Alabama

.805 Utah

.800 Texas

.798 Oklahoma

.787 Texas Tech

.784 Florida

 

Going into the Tech and Oklahoma game, their respective rankings were .815 and .768, respectively. After the game they went to .785 and .786, respectively. Going into the Texas and Oklahoma game the rankings were .802 and .771 respectively. Afterwards .821 and .713. Nothing about the A&H methodology is published, but it seems to take points off of one team and add them to the other if the team wins to a certain extent. We can also look at Tech's win over Texas. Going into the game .834 for Texas and .749 for Texas Tech. .802 and .813 afterwards.

 

Texas Tech gained .060 for their efforts. Texas gained .019 and Oklahoma gained .027. If we take the minimum of that we get .019 increase for Florida with a win over Alabama. However, Texas was actually ranked higher than Oklahoma by a significant margin. Florida gained .029 for winning against Georgia when Georgia was ranked three spots higher than them. So I think a .019 increase for Florida is a low estimate, but we'll use that one. Let's also take a loss of the same for Alabama. Note that Texas Tech lost 30 and Oklahoma lost 58, so I think again, this is a relatively low estimate. Let's also have Oklahoma gain .019 for a win over Missouri. Missouri is ranked #13 right now. This might be a relatively high estimate, but a gain of .07 is all that's needed for them to surpass the kids ahead of them and that kind of increase seems to be probable. With these changes in mind (everyone else static) we get:

 

.8170 Oklahoma

.8050 Utah

.8030 Florida

.8000 Texas

.7920 Alabama

.7870 Texas Tech

 

Again, this is a low estimate, Florida may jump Utah as well. It's going to be close to whether or not they are able to jump Texas one would have to think.

 

Now let's look at Richard Billingsley joke of a system. We know a few things about the system. We know if you don't play you don't gain any points. We know if you win you gain points. If you lose you lose points. We also know if you beat an opponent you're going to be ranked ahead of them the next week no matter what. Right now we have:

 

325.926 Alabama

322.918 Oklahoma

314.792 Florida

313.293 Texas

 

Thus, we know, no matter what a win guarantees Florida to be ranked #1 or #2 in the system next week. We also know that Texas can be ranked no higher than third. The question is whether or not a loss by Alabama to Florida will drop them below Texas or not.

 

Texas lost 22 points and Texas Tech gained 38 points. Texas was then #1 and Tech was then #13.

Florida gained 10 points and Georgia lost 8 points. Georgia and Florida were ranked #6 and #7 respectively.

Texas Tech lost 9 points and Oklahoma gained 12 points. They were ranked #2 and #6 respectively.

Texas gained 16 points and Oklahoma lost 3 points. Texas was #5 and Oklahoma was #1.

 

Tech was terrible going into that game, so that's why we had such drastic changes thanks to a last second catch (stupid system). We can safely assume then that Oklahoma's win over now #18 Missouri won't gain them 8 less points than Florida's win over #1 Alabama. We can also make a fair assumption that Alabama won't lose more than 10 points with a loss to Florida. That gives us this relativish ranking. The lack of an extra game here really, really hurts Texas.

 

1. Oklahoma

2. Florida

3. Alabama

4. Texas

 

Now let's look at the Colley Rankings. We can just use the play God feature to estimate what happens. So entering Florida beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats Missouri: Oklahoma moves to #1, Texas drops to #2 and Florida moves from #4 to #3.

 

If those three polls move that way and our assumptions hold true about the voters and the other three computer polls stay the same, then our BCS standings are:

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9533 Florida

.9533 Texas

 

A dead tie. Florida is ranked 6th, 6th and 7th in the other three polls. They'll need to gain at least at least one spot in either the Massey or Sagarin ratings with their win. That's most likely in the Massey Rankings where Alabama is just one spot ahead of them. There's a sizable difference between them and #5 Utah in Sagarin. I wouldn't say it's certain that a win over Alabama moves them ahead of Utah. Alabama will need to drop below Utah and still get jumped by Florida for them to gain a spot there. Florida is 7th in Peter Wolfe's rankings. Right now this poll is the one getting dropped for Florida, so if anything is to be gained by improving here, they're going to need to jump both #6 Boise State and #5 Utah. They will probably jump Boise State, they're relatively close. They're quite a ways behind Utah. In fact the difference between #7 Florida and #5 Utah is the same as the difference between #7 Florida and #13 Oklahoma State. There really isn't a lot of room for Florida's computer scores to grow in the other three rankings, although we have an accurate gauge on them in the first three.

 

Let's first assume that Florida makes the easy jumps in the three rankings. Let's say they gain one spot in each of them. Under our original assumptions of the human polls we have Florida jumping to #2 in the BCS.

 

But how fair are our Harris Polls and Coaches polls when it comes to assuming Florida is #1 in the human polls and Texas averages #2. It's probably different. Florida is just below Texas in the Coaches poll and they're barely behind Oklahoma. What happens if Alabama drops. Does Florida gain all the unspoken for 58 first place votes? Probably not. Will they gain half of them? Probably. Who gains the rest of them? Considering how Texas is only 1 point behind Oklahoma, despite Oklahoma receiving two first place votes and Texas none I think it's a relatively fair assumption to make that Oklahoma and Texas split them. Then the question is, if you're a voter who sticks to your guns and has Texas ranked ahead of Oklahoma, do you have Florida ranked ahead of Oklahoma or not? That's going to be the difference. If these voters vote Texas ahead of Oklahoma only because of the head to head matchup, then it is VERY likely that on almost all the ballots that have Texas #1 will have Florida #3 and Oklahoma #2. If you have Oklahoma #1, then it's a fair assessment that you also have Florida #2 thanks to the big win over Alabama. If you have Florida #1, then what? Let's assume that again, half the voters think Oklahoma is higher and half the voters thank Texas is higher. Using these crude assumptions we can project the coaches polls and the total of number of votes compiled by each team. There are 61 voters in the coaches poll. Meyer and Brown have votes, Stoops does not. So let's calculate their votes as the deciding ties. Ie, So we assumed that half of them have Florida #1, so 30 #1 votes for Florida. Half of these have Texas #2 and half have Oklahoma #2. Now let's say of the other 31 votes, we have 15 of them voting OU first and 16 of them voting UT first. Where UT is first we assumed that OU was #2. Where OU was first, we assumed that Florida was #2 always.

 

Our Coaches:

#1 1478 Florida (30)

#2 1464 Oklahoma (15)

#3 1450 Texas (16)

 

Now, under this framework, without even adjusting our Harris Poll we get (with the other above projections for the computers):

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9503 Texas

.9497 Florida

 

In order for Florida to pass Texas under this scenario they're going to move to number four in either the Sagarin poll (passing Alabama and Utah) or the Massey ratings (passing Alabama and Utah) or move up to number four in the Wolfe poll (passing Alabama, Utah and Boise State). I'm not sure I'd bet on them making the jump in any of the polls. I'm not so sure we're overestimating Florida getting half the first place votes from the coaches. If Texas gets only 15 of the first place they're still ahead by .0001.

 

Now let's try to improve our guess on the Harris poll. Right now we're assuming that Florida gets all first place votes and Texas gets all of the second place votes. Let's not make that assumption. Right now Florida has a sizable lead on Texas, who has a minuscule lead over Oklahoma. I think we can make the same relative estimates about Florida getting half the first place votes and the other half splitting between OU and Texas.

 

If that were to happen, we'd get the same poll results for the Harris and Coaches. I think it's the most likely outcome. Doing this we get:

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9472 Texas

.9395 Florida

 

In order for Florida to pass Texas, they're going to have to move into fourth place in either the Sagarin, Wolfe or Massey polls and move into third in one of the other two. As we've seen that's not a very likely outcome - at all.

 

Sorry guys, Florida's not jumping Texas if Texas can stay ahead of Oklahoma in half the polls. Maybe I'm making too large of an assumption on the number of first place votes (1/4th) that Texas will get. I don't think I am. If anything I am over-representing the amount of first place votes that Florida will get (probably not in the Harris but probably so in the Coaches poll). Florida's going to need style points against Alabama. Simply beating them won't be enough. I'm going to go ahead of 'project' these components:

 

Harris Poll and Coaches Poll

0.969180328 Florida

0.960000000 Oklahoma

0.950819672 Texas

 

AH RB CM KM JS PW School
23 24 23 21 21 20 Florida
25 25 25 25 25 25 Oklahoma
22 23 24 23 24 24 Texas

 

That gives me the Meph BCS Projections (under the assumption Florida beats 'Bama and OU beats Mizzou)

.9733 Oklahoma

.9472 Texas

.9395 Florida

 

Keep in mind, there's a 45% chance Missouri or Alabama win. If that happens then in all the scenarios the BCS title game projection is trivial. It's SEC Winner vs OU or Texas (if OU loses)

 

Wow, I ranted more than I thought I did. Good read guys though. Don't be daunted

[cubweiser03]

Wow, I ranted more than I thought I did. Good read guys though. Don't be daunted

I would but not to sound like a 80 year old grandpa, just give me some damn football to watch. Ive become very apathetic to the whole BCS process and the slice and dice of who should play in the NCG. This is the year that everybody warned about the flaws of the BCS and a 2 team championship. In years past i could draw line the line from #2 to #3 confidently. This year its hard to draw the line from #1 to #5. It'll be like the 1990s all over again with somebody winning a New Years Day bowl game and people saying they should be #1 despite the outcome of the 1V2 game(i.e. USC, do you remember the carson palmer USC beating Iowa, okay that wasnt 1990's but it happened in the 90s too and if it didnt it was just an expression ha).

[manbearcub]

I agree with mephs post.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I was going to suggest using the strength of North teams faced as a tiebreaker, but those are actually tied for all 3 teams in the South as well(Texas would've been ahead had either Mizzou or Colorado hung on to win this weekend).

 

Since you're dying to know, Mizzou's Offensive Coordinator Dave Christensen took the head coaching job at Wyoming. He's staying to coach through the bowl game.

 

Speaking of Bowl Games, Mizzou is locked into theirs now. They win Saturday(lol) and go to the Fiesta, they lose Saturday and go to the Alamo to face either Iowa or Northwestern, according to the Alamo Bowl selection committee.

 

Hopefully Eberflus gets that Toledo job.

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

What's even more garbage is that 9-3 Northwestern is going to end up in the Alamo bowl, and 8-4 Iowa (whom Northwestern beat -- on the road) will go to the Outback Bowl.

 

Wealthy fans who don't get to go to bowls every year travel well too!

 

9-3 Missouri is going to end up in the Alamo Bowl, and 8-4 Nebraska (whom Missouri beat -- on the road -- by 35) will go to the Gator Bowl.

 

We're in the same boat.

[dew1679666265]

I don't know if this is the right thread or not, but it's the only updated college football thread so here we go.

 

Lane Kiffin is definitely growing on me. Not only did he give a slight amount of crap to Urban Meyer during his press conference, he also pissed off Steve Spurrier.

 

According to a story published on VolQuest.com, part of the Rivals’ network, Kiffin and former Gamecocks recruiting coordinator David Reaves called Tampa running back Jarvis Giles on Sunday and left him voice messages.

The NCAA requires coaches to pass a certification test before they can contact recruits. During his introductory press conference this afternoon, the 33-year-old Kiffin said he had taken the test last week.

“You’re supposed to have passed the NCAA test and be on board, I think. But maybe he was just calling him as an interested observer,” Spurrier said today, laughing. “I don’t know. But technically to be able to recruit you’re supposed to pass the NCAA test.

“I know when I was hired, after the press conference I took the test to qualify you to be a recruiter. I hadn’t taken it in three or four years. At that time I could start making calls. I don’t know if he was permitted to make that call or not. You’ll have to ask somebody else."

[Mephistopheles]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

[dew1679666265]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

 

If we had a little bit of offense this year and our QB could hand the ball off, it wouldn't have been an embarassment this year. That said, if Tebow and Harvin are back next year you may be right.

 

And I don't think Spurrier's that livid over this, but thought it was funny that he was pitching a fit already.

[Mephistopheles]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

 

If we had a little bit of offense this year and our QB could hand the ball off, it wouldn't have been an embarassment this year. That said, if Tebow and Harvin are back next year you may be right.

 

And I don't think Spurrier's that livid over this, but thought it was funny that he was pitching a fit already.

 

If you had a little bit of offense this year and your QB could hand the ball off, it would have been a bigger embarrassment this year. Florida scored effectively against you guys. They didn't rack up gobs of points because the game was short. I think they only got 7 possessions when a typical Oklahoma game has 13 or 14 possessions. Also, you played the Gators before they knew what they had in Demps and Rainey. The offense is in another gear with those two in the mix. In fact, Demps didn't even play on offense in that game. If Tennessee played the Gators in November you and I both know it would have probably wound up 55-3 or something worse.

[TruffleShuffle]

is it possible for alabama and florida to both lose this week?

[Andy]

is it possible for alabama and florida to both lose this week?

I'm starting to lean towards rooting for Florida to win and get somehow hosed out of the #2 spot in the BCS, because that's about as likely a positive scenario as any.

[TruffleShuffle]

is it possible for alabama and florida to both lose this week?

I'm starting to lean towards rooting for Florida to win and get somehow hosed out of the #2 spot in the BCS, because that's about as likely a positive scenario as any.

 

i may just end up rooting for the team whose fans aren't complete d-bags... problem is, they keep trying to out d-bag each other.

[dew1679666265]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

 

If we had a little bit of offense this year and our QB could hand the ball off, it wouldn't have been an embarassment this year. That said, if Tebow and Harvin are back next year you may be right.

 

And I don't think Spurrier's that livid over this, but thought it was funny that he was pitching a fit already.

 

If you had a little bit of offense this year and your QB could hand the ball off, it would have been a bigger embarrassment this year. Florida scored effectively against you guys. They didn't rack up gobs of points because the game was short. I think they only got 7 possessions when a typical Oklahoma game has 13 or 14 possessions. Also, you played the Gators before they knew what they had in Demps and Rainey. The offense is in another gear with those two in the mix. In fact, Demps didn't even play on offense in that game. If Tennessee played the Gators in November you and I both know it would have probably wound up 55-3 or something worse.

 

Probably, but ya'll have done that to pretty close to everybody. I have little doubt Florida will win next year, but I have some doubts whether it'll be an embarassment. If Tebow and Harvin return, it well may be.

[cubweiser03]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

 

If we had a little bit of offense this year and our QB could hand the ball off, it wouldn't have been an embarassment this year. That said, if Tebow and Harvin are back next year you may be right.

 

And I don't think Spurrier's that livid over this, but thought it was funny that he was pitching a fit already.

 

If you had a little bit of offense this year and your QB could hand the ball off, it would have been a bigger embarrassment this year. Florida scored effectively against you guys. They didn't rack up gobs of points because the game was short. I think they only got 7 possessions when a typical Oklahoma game has 13 or 14 possessions. Also, you played the Gators before they knew what they had in Demps and Rainey. The offense is in another gear with those two in the mix. In fact, Demps didn't even play on offense in that game. If Tennessee played the Gators in November you and I both know it would have probably wound up 55-3 or something worse.

 

Not to be a dick but you dont have to be dick about this, show some respect. Its not like UT is Vanderbilt, they bring in some very good players and have talented players on the current roster. I for one wouldnt slight Lane or Monte Kiffin.

[Mephistopheles]

It's not like UT is UGA, FSU or LSU either. How'd that help them?

[dew1679666265]

I'm sure Urban Meyer is going to embarrass Tennessee again next season. I don't think Urban Meyer really gives a damn about him. I don't think Steve does either, he just likes to share his opinion on every topic.

 

If we had a little bit of offense this year and our QB could hand the ball off, it wouldn't have been an embarassment this year. That said, if Tebow and Harvin are back next year you may be right.

 

And I don't think Spurrier's that livid over this, but thought it was funny that he was pitching a fit already.

 

If you had a little bit of offense this year and your QB could hand the ball off, it would have been a bigger embarrassment this year. Florida scored effectively against you guys. They didn't rack up gobs of points because the game was short. I think they only got 7 possessions when a typical Oklahoma game has 13 or 14 possessions. Also, you played the Gators before they knew what they had in Demps and Rainey. The offense is in another gear with those two in the mix. In fact, Demps didn't even play on offense in that game. If Tennessee played the Gators in November you and I both know it would have probably wound up 55-3 or something worse.

 

Not to be a dick but you dont have to be dick about this, show some respect. Its not like UT is Vanderbilt, they bring in some very good players and have talented players on the current roster. I for one wouldnt slight Lane or Monte Kiffin.

 

It will be interesting to see how a consumate NFL defensive coordinator handles a classic college offense like Florida's. Hopefully Monte will come to UT, it's about the only way we won't downgrade at defensive coordinator.

 

By the way, Chris Mortensen reported there's a "very strong" chance Monte will be here next year. I suspect Monte just doesn't want to confirm it during the season.

[B]

As a Bucs fan I will miss Monte. He's been great at what he does for a long time.

[Hosak8]

It's not like UT is UGA, FSU or LSU either. How'd that help them?

 

And with this post, almost every one of you can understand why I do not root for the conference. I sincerely hope that Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, and that they do not make the MNC game. It is my hope that Florida then gets drilled in the Sugar Bowl by their opponent, and that Texas gets slaughtered by Oklahoma (just because Meph pimps the Longhorns as well).

 

And for those of you who complain about the SEC and their fans, I understand why... I really do. It's fans like this. And believe me, this is TYPICAL of most Florida and Alabama fans I know. They talk an awful lot for people who don't contribute to anything that affects the game itself.

 

I do hope Team Jorts will beat the Criminal Tide, and then get left out of the MNC game. It doesn't matter, though, because wins and losses are irrelevant, remember?

Edited December 2, 2008 by Hosak8

[dew1679666265]

As a Bucs fan I will miss Monte. He's been great at what he does for a long time.

 

Probably one of the best ever.

 

Don't worry, I'll be sure to really appreciate him. :wink:

[dew1679666265]

It's not like UT is UGA, FSU or LSU either. How'd that help them?

 

And with this post, almost every one of you can understand why I do not root for the conference. I sincerely hope that Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, and that they do not make the MNC game. It is my hope that Florida then gets drilled in the Sugar Bowl by their opponent, and that Texas gets slaughtered by Oklahoma (just because Meph pimps the Longhorns as well).

 

And for those of you who complain about the SEC and their fans, I understand why... I really do. It's fans like this. Nothing like having Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory talk trash to you about something he has no control over, huh?

 

I do hope Team Jorts will beat the Criminal Tide, and then get left out of the MNC game. It doesn't matter, though, because wins and losses are irrelevant, remember?

 

I just can't bring myself to root for Florida. But I can't root for Bama either.

[SouthSideRyan]

Nothing like having Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory talk trash to you about something he has no control over, huh?

 

And your post was going so well.

[Rusch33]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

Possibly. A lot closer than what you think, and probably better.

 

Iowa

PPG: 13.3

Yards P/G: 289.5

Rush Yards: 1179

Pass Yards: 2295

Ints:20

Fumbles Recovered: 7

Passing Efficiency D: 99.08

 

Texas

PPG: 18.6

Yards P/G: 339.9

Rush Yards: 883

Pass Yards: 3196

INTs: 6

Fumbles Recovered: 10

Passing Efficiency D: 124.88

 

---------

[Hosak8]

Nothing like having Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory talk trash to you about something he has no control over, huh?

 

And your post was going so well.

 

That's what I get for playing for style points, I guess. Who cares if it hurt me in the human polls, though. The computers loved me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nothing like having Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory talk trash to you about something he has no control over, huh?

 

And your post was going so well.

 

That's what I get for playing for style points, I guess. Who cares if it hurt me in the human polls, though. The computers loved me.

 

SSR is a hater.

[dew1679666265]

Nothing like having Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory talk trash to you about something he has no control over, huh?

 

And your post was going so well.

 

That's what I get for playing for style points, I guess. Who cares if it hurt me in the human polls, though. The computers loved me.

 

SSR is a hater.

 

And a sensationalist hack.