College Football - Championship Week

[Butterscup1679666578]

I was going to suggest using the strength of North teams faced as a tiebreaker, but those are actually tied for all 3 teams in the South as well(Texas would've been ahead had either Mizzou or Colorado hung on to win this weekend).

 

Since you're dying to know, Mizzou's Offensive Coordinator Dave Christensen took the head coaching job at Wyoming. He's staying to coach through the bowl game.

 

Speaking of Bowl Games, Mizzou is locked into theirs now. They win Saturday(lol) and go to the Fiesta, they lose Saturday and go to the Alamo to face either Iowa or Northwestern, according to the Alamo Bowl selection committee.

 

Hopefully Eberflus gets that Toledo job.

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

[Guest]

As a Texas fan, the only thing that REALLY frustrates me is the BCS rankings used as a tiebreaker.

 

It's to make sure the conference has its best chance at making the title game. If you have the #3 BCS team getting passed up in favor of the #15 team due to the #15 team running up the score in conference play it wouldn't help the conference at all.

 

If there is a three-way tie for first in a conference in the section here for high school football, the first is head-to-head and the second is point differential in the games among the tied teams with a maximum of 13 points per game. I like the tiebreaker because it only uses the results of the games among the three tied teams and doesn't reward running up the score.

If the Big 12 used that system, then Oklahoma would still be going to the title game.

 

Yeah, I realize that. I was just commenting on how using point differential, or some form of it, between the tied teams would be way better than using the BCS standings.

[jame.gumb]

As a Texas fan, the only thing that REALLY frustrates me is the BCS rankings used as a tiebreaker.

 

It's to make sure the conference has its best chance at making the title game. If you have the #3 BCS team getting passed up in favor of the #15 team due to the #15 team running up the score in conference play it wouldn't help the conference at all.

 

If there is a three-way tie for first in a conference in the section here for high school football, the first is head-to-head and the second is point differential in the games among the tied teams with a maximum of 13 points per game. I like the tiebreaker because it only uses the results of the games among the three tied teams and doesn't reward running up the score.

If the Big 12 used that system, then Oklahoma would still be going to the title game.

 

Yeah, I realize that. I was just commenting on how using point differential, or some form of it, between the tied teams would be way better than using the BCS standings.

 

That was my point also, though it was apparently poorly delineated. I was never arguing for Texas, just that the system frustrated me.

[Rusch33]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

[manbearcub]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

And they wont in the bowl game.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

[Mephistopheles]

It probably is. At the very least it's relatively equivalent.

[SpongeWorthy]

How much ground does Florida need to make up in the computers on Texas to pass them in the BCS? And what are the possible amounts of ground they make up by beating Bama?

[Mephistopheles]

MAC Championship Game:

79.5% #12 Ball State over Buffalo

Ball State favored by 12 points

 

Conference USA Championship Game:

71.6% Tulsa over East Carolina

Tulsa favored by 8 points

 

ACC Championship Game:

63.0% #18 Boston College over Virginia Tech

Boston College favored by 4 points

 

Big XII Championship Game:

70.4% #4 Oklahoma over #19 Missouri

Oklahoma favored by 7 points

 

SEC Championship Game:

77.9% #2 Florida over #1 Alabama

Florida favored by 11 points

[Mark_R]

Oklahoma is a 7 point favorite!?

 

Holy hell, where do I sign up

[Guest]

MAC Championship Game:

79.5% #12 Ball State over Buffalo

Ball State favored by 12 points

 

Conference USA Championship Game:

71.6% Tulsa over East Carolina

Tulsa favored by 8 points

 

ACC Championship Game:

63.0% #18 Boston College over Virginia Tech

Boston College favored by 4 points

 

Big XII Championship Game:

70.4% #4 Oklahoma over #19 Missouri

Oklahoma favored by 7 points

 

SEC Championship Game:

77.9% #2 Florida over #1 Alabama

Florida favored by 11 points

 

Thanks for not posting UCLA-USC.

[imb]

MAC Championship Game:

79.5% #12 Ball State over Buffalo

Ball State favored by 12 points

 

Conference USA Championship Game:

71.6% Tulsa over East Carolina

Tulsa favored by 8 points

 

ACC Championship Game:

63.0% #18 Boston College over Virginia Tech

Boston College favored by 4 points

 

Big XII Championship Game:

70.4% #4 Oklahoma over #19 Missouri

Oklahoma favored by 7 points

 

SEC Championship Game:

77.9% #2 Florida over #1 Alabama

Florida favored by 11 points

 

Thanks for not posting UCLA-USC.

 

a percentage so large, even meph couldn't calculate it

[Exile on Waveland]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

 

I certainly thought Mizzou was Holiday Bowl-bound. I also think it's a better bowl.

[CubInOK]

Oklahoma is a 7 point favorite!?

 

Holy hell, where do I sign up

I've seen OU -15. :confused:

[CubInOK]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

 

I certainly thought Mizzou was Holiday Bowl-bound. I also think it's a better bowl.

I've heard Oklahoma State has already accepted the Holiday Bowl bid.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Oklahoma is a 7 point favorite!?

 

Holy hell, where do I sign up

I've seen OU -15. :confused:

 

It opened at 14.5, and already got pushed to 17.

[Butterscup1679666578]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

 

I certainly thought Mizzou was Holiday Bowl-bound. I also think it's a better bowl.

I've heard Oklahoma State has already accepted the Holiday Bowl bid.

 

According to a Holiday Bowl representative who was at a Mizzou game earlier this year (this was after we lost to OSU and Texas), the Holiday Bowl was ours to lose. I guess we lost it.

[B]

Oklahoma is a 7 point favorite!?

 

Holy hell, where do I sign up

I've seen OU -15. :confused:

 

It opened at 14.5, and already got pushed to 17.

I opened at 17. I'll take it.

[imb]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

 

I certainly thought Mizzou was Holiday Bowl-bound. I also think it's a better bowl.

I've heard Oklahoma State has already accepted the Holiday Bowl bid.

 

According to a Holiday Bowl representative who was at a Mizzou game earlier this year (this was after we lost to OSU and Texas), the Holiday Bowl was ours to lose. I guess we lost it.

 

San Antonio ... San Diego, what's the difference

[Butterscup1679666578]

mizzou would not be a good matchup for iowa.

 

Mizzou hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa's all year.

 

You think Iowa's defense is better than Texas'?

 

The Alamo Bowl is garbage. I can't believe Nebraska is going to get into a better bowl than us.

 

I don't really think there's much difference between the Alamo and Holiday, and personally I'd rather play a Big 10 team than a Pac 10 team.

 

I certainly thought Mizzou was Holiday Bowl-bound. I also think it's a better bowl.

I've heard Oklahoma State has already accepted the Holiday Bowl bid.

 

According to a Holiday Bowl representative who was at a Mizzou game earlier this year (this was after we lost to OSU and Texas), the Holiday Bowl was ours to lose. I guess we lost it.

 

San Antonio ... San Diego, what's the difference

 

I'm sure the SIDs I work with feel the same way...whoops.

[Andy]

Brian Kelly was asked on the Jim Rome show if he refused the Tennessee job to wait on Notre Dame, and he said he "couldn't answer that".

 

Please please please

[SouthSideRyan]

Brian Kelly was asked on the Jim Rome show if he refused the Tennessee job to wait on Notre Dame, and he said he "couldn't answer that".

 

Please please please

 

But on the downside he went on Jim Rome.

[Mephistopheles]

How much ground does Florida need to make up in the computers on Texas to pass them in the BCS? And what are the possible amounts of ground they make up by beating Bama?

 

It's tough to say since we don't know the breakdown of the votes by the coaches. Let's assume that Florida is #1 and Texas is #2 in the polls on everyone's ballot. This isn't going to happen, obviously, but the difference between the two is going to be similar. Let's also make the further assumption that Oklahoma is #2 on everyone's ballot and a win over Missouri won't cause Oklahoma to get jumped by Texas in a computer, which is a fair hypothesis. Obviously Oklahoma and Texas can't both be number two on every ballot, but it's a good estimate of what the average is going to be, they're going to be tied, or so.

 

If Texas is #2 on every computer and Oklahoma is #1 on every computer, then Florida will need a computer average of .8800 or higher to catch Texas. A .8800 computer average corresponds to being on, on average, ranked #4 in the computers. Right now they're ranked, on average, fifth in the computers, behind Alabama and Utah as well as Texas and Oklahoma. If we make the further assumption that Florida won't finish behind Alabama in the computers with a win over them, then yes it looks like Florida will barely catch Texas.

 

Let's go ahead and make some projections of the BCS computers. We can make a relatively accurate estimate of the impact of a Florida win over Alabama by looking at how much each individual computer acted after the Oklahoma win over Texas Tech (and also the Texas win over Oklahoma).

 

So first let's look at Anderson and Hester computer rankings. Right now the A&H rankings are Alabama, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Florida in that order.

 

.811 Alabama

.805 Utah

.800 Texas

.798 Oklahoma

.787 Texas Tech

.784 Florida

 

Going into the Tech and Oklahoma game, their respective rankings were .815 and .768, respectively. After the game they went to .785 and .786, respectively. Going into the Texas and Oklahoma game the rankings were .802 and .771 respectively. Afterwards .821 and .713. Nothing about the A&H methodology is published, but it seems to take points off of one team and add them to the other if the team wins to a certain extent. We can also look at Tech's win over Texas. Going into the game .834 for Texas and .749 for Texas Tech. .802 and .813 afterwards.

 

Texas Tech gained .060 for their efforts. Texas gained .019 and Oklahoma gained .027. If we take the minimum of that we get .019 increase for Florida with a win over Alabama. However, Texas was actually ranked higher than Oklahoma by a significant margin. Florida gained .029 for winning against Georgia when Georgia was ranked three spots higher than them. So I think a .019 increase for Florida is a low estimate, but we'll use that one. Let's also take a loss of the same for Alabama. Note that Texas Tech lost 30 and Oklahoma lost 58, so I think again, this is a relatively low estimate. Let's also have Oklahoma gain .019 for a win over Missouri. Missouri is ranked #13 right now. This might be a relatively high estimate, but a gain of .07 is all that's needed for them to surpass the kids ahead of them and that kind of increase seems to be probable. With these changes in mind (everyone else static) we get:

 

.8170 Oklahoma

.8050 Utah

.8030 Florida

.8000 Texas

.7920 Alabama

.7870 Texas Tech

 

Again, this is a low estimate, Florida may jump Utah as well. It's going to be close to whether or not they are able to jump Texas one would have to think.

 

Now let's look at Richard Billingsley joke of a system. We know a few things about the system. We know if you don't play you don't gain any points. We know if you win you gain points. If you lose you lose points. We also know if you beat an opponent you're going to be ranked ahead of them the next week no matter what. Right now we have:

 

325.926 Alabama

322.918 Oklahoma

314.792 Florida

313.293 Texas

 

Thus, we know, no matter what a win guarantees Florida to be ranked #1 or #2 in the system next week. We also know that Texas can be ranked no higher than third. The question is whether or not a loss by Alabama to Florida will drop them below Texas or not.

 

Texas lost 22 points and Texas Tech gained 38 points. Texas was then #1 and Tech was then #13.

Florida gained 10 points and Georgia lost 8 points. Georgia and Florida were ranked #6 and #7 respectively.

Texas Tech lost 9 points and Oklahoma gained 12 points. They were ranked #2 and #6 respectively.

Texas gained 16 points and Oklahoma lost 3 points. Texas was #5 and Oklahoma was #1.

 

Tech was terrible going into that game, so that's why we had such drastic changes thanks to a last second catch (stupid system). We can safely assume then that Oklahoma's win over now #18 Missouri won't gain them 8 less points than Florida's win over #1 Alabama. We can also make a fair assumption that Alabama won't lose more than 10 points with a loss to Florida. That gives us this relativish ranking. The lack of an extra game here really, really hurts Texas.

 

1. Oklahoma

2. Florida

3. Alabama

4. Texas

 

Now let's look at the Colley Rankings. We can just use the play God feature to estimate what happens. So entering Florida beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats Missouri: Oklahoma moves to #1, Texas drops to #2 and Florida moves from #4 to #3.

 

If those three polls move that way and our assumptions hold true about the voters and the other three computer polls stay the same, then our BCS standings are:

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9533 Florida

.9533 Texas

 

A dead tie. Florida is ranked 6th, 6th and 7th in the other three polls. They'll need to gain at least at least one spot in either the Massey or Sagarin ratings with their win. That's most likely in the Massey Rankings where Alabama is just one spot ahead of them. There's a sizable difference between them and #5 Utah in Sagarin. I wouldn't say it's certain that a win over Alabama moves them ahead of Utah. Alabama will need to drop below Utah and still get jumped by Florida for them to gain a spot there. Florida is 7th in Peter Wolfe's rankings. Right now this poll is the one getting dropped for Florida, so if anything is to be gained by improving here, they're going to need to jump both #6 Boise State and #5 Utah. They will probably jump Boise State, they're relatively close. They're quite a ways behind Utah. In fact the difference between #7 Florida and #5 Utah is the same as the difference between #7 Florida and #13 Oklahoma State. There really isn't a lot of room for Florida's computer scores to grow in the other three rankings, although we have an accurate gauge on them in the first three.

 

Let's first assume that Florida makes the easy jumps in the three rankings. Let's say they gain one spot in each of them. Under our original assumptions of the human polls we have Florida jumping to #2 in the BCS.

 

But how fair are our Harris Polls and Coaches polls when it comes to assuming Florida is #1 in the human polls and Texas averages #2. It's probably different. Florida is just below Texas in the Coaches poll and they're barely behind Oklahoma. What happens if Alabama drops. Does Florida gain all the unspoken for 58 first place votes? Probably not. Will they gain half of them? Probably. Who gains the rest of them? Considering how Texas is only 1 point behind Oklahoma, despite Oklahoma receiving two first place votes and Texas none I think it's a relatively fair assumption to make that Oklahoma and Texas split them. Then the question is, if you're a voter who sticks to your guns and has Texas ranked ahead of Oklahoma, do you have Florida ranked ahead of Oklahoma or not? That's going to be the difference. If these voters vote Texas ahead of Oklahoma only because of the head to head matchup, then it is VERY likely that on almost all the ballots that have Texas #1 will have Florida #3 and Oklahoma #2. If you have Oklahoma #1, then it's a fair assessment that you also have Florida #2 thanks to the big win over Alabama. If you have Florida #1, then what? Let's assume that again, half the voters think Oklahoma is higher and half the voters thank Texas is higher. Using these crude assumptions we can project the coaches polls and the total of number of votes compiled by each team. There are 61 voters in the coaches poll. Meyer and Brown have votes, Stoops does not. So let's calculate their votes as the deciding ties. Ie, So we assumed that half of them have Florida #1, so 30 #1 votes for Florida. Half of these have Texas #2 and half have Oklahoma #2. Now let's say of the other 31 votes, we have 15 of them voting OU first and 16 of them voting UT first. Where UT is first we assumed that OU was #2. Where OU was first, we assumed that Florida was #2 always.

 

Our Coaches:

#1 1478 Florida (30)

#2 1464 Oklahoma (15)

#3 1450 Texas (16)

 

Now, under this framework, without even adjusting our Harris Poll we get (with the other above projections for the computers):

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9503 Texas

.9497 Florida

 

In order for Florida to pass Texas under this scenario they're going to move to number four in either the Sagarin poll (passing Alabama and Utah) or the Massey ratings (passing Alabama and Utah) or move up to number four in the Wolfe poll (passing Alabama, Utah and Boise State). I'm not sure I'd bet on them making the jump in any of the polls. I'm not so sure we're overestimating Florida getting half the first place votes from the coaches. If Texas gets only 15 of the first place they're still ahead by .0001.

 

Now let's try to improve our guess on the Harris poll. Right now we're assuming that Florida gets all first place votes and Texas gets all of the second place votes. Let's not make that assumption. Right now Florida has a sizable lead on Texas, who has a minuscule lead over Oklahoma. I think we can make the same relative estimates about Florida getting half the first place votes and the other half splitting between OU and Texas.

 

If that were to happen, we'd get the same poll results for the Harris and Coaches. I think it's the most likely outcome. Doing this we get:

 

.9733 Oklahoma

.9472 Texas

.9395 Florida

 

In order for Florida to pass Texas, they're going to have to move into fourth place in either the Sagarin, Wolfe or Massey polls and move into third in one of the other two. As we've seen that's not a very likely outcome - at all.

 

Sorry guys, Florida's not jumping Texas if Texas can stay ahead of Oklahoma in half the polls. Maybe I'm making too large of an assumption on the number of first place votes (1/4th) that Texas will get. I don't think I am. If anything I am over-representing the amount of first place votes that Florida will get (probably not in the Harris but probably so in the Coaches poll). Florida's going to need style points against Alabama. Simply beating them won't be enough. I'm going to go ahead of 'project' these components:

 

Harris Poll and Coaches Poll

0.969180328 Florida

0.960000000 Oklahoma

0.950819672 Texas

 

AH RB CM KM JS PW School
23 24 23 21 21 20 Florida
25 25 25 25 25 25 Oklahoma
22 23 24 23 24 24 Texas

 

That gives me the Meph BCS Projections (under the assumption Florida beats 'Bama and OU beats Mizzou)

.9733 Oklahoma

.9472 Texas

.9395 Florida

 

Keep in mind, there's a 45% chance Missouri or Alabama win. If that happens then in all the scenarios the BCS title game projection is trivial. It's SEC Winner vs OU or Texas (if OU loses)

Edited December 2, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

Oklahoma is a 7 point favorite!?

 

Holy hell, where do I sign up

 

As always, those are brought to you by http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm I am not saying they're right or not.

[Derwood]

don't give people Sagarin point spreads when they're double digits off from Vegas odds.