Jump to content
North Side Baseball
Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

  • Replies 5.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted (edited)
That said, though, you seemed to be erring too much on the side of him busting out. Vitters is still very young and has a good chance to be very good. I'm not sure he'll ever reach the Aramis/Wright level, but I'd say that's more likely than being Kevin Orie.

the vast majority of prospects ultimately are busts though.

 

The vast majority aren't extremely well thought of.

 

Vitters is much more highly regarded than most prospects. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily turn into anything, but he still has a greater shot than most.

 

The vast majority of good to great teams out there get a strong aid from their minor league system. Unless you're the Yankees and can throw $250 million around, there are going to be spots that you must fill with cheap talent. That's where the farm system is most important.

i don't disagree with any of that. you dont have to try and convince me of the importance of producing talent from the farm. i'm already convinced. but again, you dont let a kid who's never been above A ball (and frankly wasnt overly impressive in A ball) be a deal breaker in a potential jake peavy acquisition.

 

I guess the biggest problem I had was that you seemed to not give Vitters any chance of being great - hence the Kevin Orie reference.

 

The likelihood of busts is the reason you stack your farm as much as possible - in the event that a number of them bust.

when we're talking about a guy who was fairly average in A ball, why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

when speaking about trading him or not trading him for a proven great player, that is.

Edited by cubbinalltheway
Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

 

Lou wouldn't do this, but I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Wuertz as the closer and Marmol in the eighth inning/fireman role.

 

I don't have a terrible problem with Gregg - I just wonder if Ceda didn't have more value than a decent ML reliever. Maybe not, but that's my only real problem with that move.

Posted
That said, though, you seemed to be erring too much on the side of him busting out. Vitters is still very young and has a good chance to be very good. I'm not sure he'll ever reach the Aramis/Wright level, but I'd say that's more likely than being Kevin Orie.

the vast majority of prospects ultimately are busts though.

 

The vast majority aren't extremely well thought of.

 

Vitters is much more highly regarded than most prospects. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily turn into anything, but he still has a greater shot than most.

 

The vast majority of good to great teams out there get a strong aid from their minor league system. Unless you're the Yankees and can throw $250 million around, there are going to be spots that you must fill with cheap talent. That's where the farm system is most important.

i don't disagree with any of that. you dont have to try and convince me of the importance of producing talent from the farm. i'm already convinced. but again, you dont let a kid who's never been above A ball (and frankly wasnt overly impressive in A ball) be a deal breaker in a potential jake peavy acquisition.

 

I guess the biggest problem I had was that you seemed to not give Vitters any chance of being great - hence the Kevin Orie reference.

 

The likelihood of busts is the reason you stack your farm as much as possible - in the event that a number of them bust.

when we're talking about a guy who was fairly average in A ball, why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

Because he was young (or very young) for A-ball and he has great tools. He's not a 24-year old college player toiling away in A-ball. I'm pretty sure he came out from high school and is just now 20 (or so).

 

He's very young with great skills - he just needs to develop.

Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

 

Lou wouldn't do this, but I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Wuertz as the closer and Marmol in the eighth inning/fireman role.

 

I don't have a terrible problem with Gregg - I just wonder if Ceda didn't have more value than a decent ML reliever. Maybe not, but that's my only real problem with that move.

 

It seems like Wuertz and Gregg are similar pitchers. Good stuff, good K numbers, control problems. I hope Lou doesn't sour on Gregg the same way he did on Wuertz.

Posted

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9101340/O's-have-tough-choices;-Dodgers-primed-to-pounce?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

Nothing special in the article just notes that if the cubs make another big move it will more than likely be for Peavy. Adds that the cubs didn't discuss roberts in the Pie trade and that they are not invovled with hudson. Talks about the cubs prospects and how the players they got in the Pie trade could possibly be used in a Peavy deal.

Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

 

Lou wouldn't do this, but I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Wuertz as the closer and Marmol in the eighth inning/fireman role.

 

I don't have a terrible problem with Gregg - I just wonder if Ceda didn't have more value than a decent ML reliever. Maybe not, but that's my only real problem with that move.

 

 

Wuertz is just too inconsistent from season to season to count on in that role. It's not just Lou, remember Dusty had him sent to the minors in 2006 for simliar reasons. Wuertz just goes into terrible slumps were he can't throw a strike or get anybody out. Of course he can also be very good for weeks at a time. But it's hard to trust a reliever that inconsistent in a major role in the pen. In 07, Wuertz avoid those terrible slumps for the most part and had a Kevin Gregg like year. Personally I see Gregg as a harder to hit verison of Dempster. He will walk people like Dempster did, but teams only hitting in the low 200s off him. It will keep his era down as a reliever, unlike Dempster who teams hit 240-260 off him mixed with all the walks.

Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

 

Lou wouldn't do this, but I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Wuertz as the closer and Marmol in the eighth inning/fireman role.

 

I don't have a terrible problem with Gregg - I just wonder if Ceda didn't have more value than a decent ML reliever. Maybe not, but that's my only real problem with that move.

 

It seems like Wuertz and Gregg are similar pitchers. Good stuff, good K numbers, control problems. I hope Lou doesn't sour on Gregg the same way he did on Wuertz.

 

As long as Gregg doesn't get in awful slumps like Wuertz does I think he will be fine. Remember Dempster also had poor control and Lou stuck with him. Because Dempster rarely had back to back awful games. But when Wuertz is bad, he's really bad and usually for a week at time.

Posted
Gregg doesn't need to improve. He needs to maintain. And pitchers do not adhere to the age 27/28 bell curve. The fact that Gregg is 30 is irrelevant for a relief pitcher needing to maintain prior years production.

 

Further, Alfonseca is a bad comparison and has nothing to do with Gregg.

 

If Gregg maintains what he's done the last two years, he'll be a slight downgrade from Wood.

 

Wood 2008 - 137 ERA+ 1.085 WHIP

Gregg 2008 - 125 ERA+ 1.282 WHIP

 

That is why Wood makes $6 million more. Anyway, Marmol gets first crack at closer. Gregg is likely a set-up guy. Those numbers are solid for a set-up guy, 7th or 8th inning.

Posted

Bruce after being asked in the comments section of his blog about the chances of landing Peavy-

 

Right now, I'd give it a 50-50 shot. The Cubs seem to have all of Jim Hendry's "inventory" in place to ship to the Padres. As I've said before here, the Cubs are only one part of the equation. The Padres know what the Cubs are willing to offer. It's up to them. Hendry will keep at it.

 

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/1261

 

It's good to know there's at least a reasonable chance.

Posted
I think the Cubs are going to make a push for Peavy. Whether the Padres deal him remains to be seen. But, with the news that the Cubs are going to name the winning bidder in the middle of the week I feel excited. Im sure Hendry foundout before the media did, and probably knew yesterday when trading Pie that the Cubs were naming the new owner. Maybe he feels the new owner will approve the Peavy trade and that is why he got Olson.
Posted
I highly doubt trade talks are going to start again.

 

I would be pissed if they don't. They leave the winter meetings with an understanding of what the Padres wanted but didn't pull the trigger, then Hendry makes moves to acquire players to cater to what the Padres were asking for, including Olsen who was the specific player they wanted, and Hendry did this for what? Shiggles?

 

I don't buy it. It doesn't make sense. It'd be like a giant slap in the face to the Cubs fans if they didn't at the very least revisit trade talks. The players they traded and the players they acquired haven't made them much better, if at all. You don't make these moves that are exactly what the Padres were asking for Peavy and not go after Peavy.

 

They needed to get rid of Marquis, they did. They needed young arms, they got them. They needed Olsen, they got him. And now they're gonna say "Well, we got what we wanted in Milton Bradley, go Cubs!" BS. It makes no sense.

Posted
including Olsen who was the specific player they wanted, and Hendry did this for what? Shiggles?

.

 

Pie had no options left. He had to be traded. Olson was probably the best offer on the table regardless of the Peavy situation.

 

I think the talks will be revisited, but people are rreading too much into the Marquis/DeRosa stuff. That had to be done to afford Bradley. If it ends up helping with Peavy later on, great, but I'm pretty sure those moves would have been made even if Peavy wasn't an option.

Posted
That said, though, you seemed to be erring too much on the side of him busting out. Vitters is still very young and has a good chance to be very good. I'm not sure he'll ever reach the Aramis/Wright level, but I'd say that's more likely than being Kevin Orie.

the vast majority of prospects ultimately are busts though.

 

The vast majority aren't extremely well thought of.

 

Vitters is much more highly regarded than most prospects. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily turn into anything, but he still has a greater shot than most.

 

The vast majority of good to great teams out there get a strong aid from their minor league system. Unless you're the Yankees and can throw $250 million around, there are going to be spots that you must fill with cheap talent. That's where the farm system is most important.

i don't disagree with any of that. you dont have to try and convince me of the importance of producing talent from the farm. i'm already convinced. but again, you dont let a kid who's never been above A ball (and frankly wasnt overly impressive in A ball) be a deal breaker in a potential jake peavy acquisition.

 

I guess the biggest problem I had was that you seemed to not give Vitters any chance of being great - hence the Kevin Orie reference.

 

The likelihood of busts is the reason you stack your farm as much as possible - in the event that a number of them bust.

when we're talking about a guy who was fairly average in A ball, why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

Because he was young (or very young) for A-ball and he has great tools. He's not a 24-year old college player toiling away in A-ball. I'm pretty sure he came out from high school and is just now 20 (or so).

 

He's very young with great skills - he just needs to develop.

 

Vitters won't turn 20 til August 29th. People who said he was average in A ball don't know what they're talking about.

Posted
I highly doubt trade talks are going to start again.

 

There's pretty much no reason why you should feel that way right now. If anything were in a better postion now, then we were in December. Look at this way

 

 

1. Cleared Marquis and DeRosa salary off the books, backloaded Bradley 09 salary. So fitting Peavy 09 salary and keeping the payroll at 148m is now realistic. Plus Jim Hendry also says he's still looking for a SP, and has even hinted about still going after Peavy. There's no way Hendry puts Marshall in the rotation, with questionmarks about Harden and goes with Olson or Gaudin as the fill in guys. So we will be adding another starting pitcher before opening day.

 

 

2. Added pitching talent in Olson, Archer and Stevens, that will probably interest the Padres. So getting a third team involved no longer seems like a must.

 

 

3. Added depth in Miles and Vizcaino, so that makes guys like Cedeno and Hart expandable. Also signed a RF, so we don't have to worry about fitting another contract in the budget, like back in December.

 

4. Whats left? Getting the new owner to approve Peavy contract for 2010 and beyond. Then of course getting the Padres to agree to a deal. But from everything Towers said in the past, it sounded like they were pretty close to a deal back in December, and the Cubs turned it down. Because at the time it didn't make sense with Marquis and DeRosa salary still on the books(Cubs might have gotten less or saved less money in the previous deals). Plus if we make the Peavy deal back in December, we most likely wouldn't have been able to sign Bradley until we had a new owner then. So if the new owner agrees to take on Peavy contract, this becomes a very realistic thing IMO.

Posted
I highly doubt trade talks are going to start again.

 

I would be pissed if they don't. They leave the winter meetings with an understanding of what the Padres wanted but didn't pull the trigger, then Hendry makes moves to acquire players to cater to what the Padres were asking for, including Olsen who was the specific player they wanted, and Hendry did this for what? Shiggles?

I don't buy it. It doesn't make sense. It'd be like a giant slap in the face to the Cubs fans if they didn't at the very least revisit trade talks. The players they traded and the players they acquired haven't made them much better, if at all. You don't make these moves that are exactly what the Padres were asking for Peavy and not go after Peavy.

 

They needed to get rid of Marquis, they did. They needed young arms, they got them. They needed Olsen, they got him. And now they're gonna say "Well, we got what we wanted in Milton Bradley, go Cubs!" BS. It makes no sense.

I agree that the talks will at least be revisited, if they haven't already started. The only way I could see us trading for Olsen without intention of trading him to the Padres is when Hendry/Towers were discussing players from other teams to get to the Padres in a 3-way Hendry or someone in the org. realized we could get Olsen and really liked him and thought he could be of use this year.

Posted
That said, though, you seemed to be erring too much on the side of him busting out. Vitters is still very young and has a good chance to be very good. I'm not sure he'll ever reach the Aramis/Wright level, but I'd say that's more likely than being Kevin Orie.

the vast majority of prospects ultimately are busts though.

 

The vast majority aren't extremely well thought of.

 

Vitters is much more highly regarded than most prospects. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily turn into anything, but he still has a greater shot than most.

 

The vast majority of good to great teams out there get a strong aid from their minor league system. Unless you're the Yankees and can throw $250 million around, there are going to be spots that you must fill with cheap talent. That's where the farm system is most important.

i don't disagree with any of that. you dont have to try and convince me of the importance of producing talent from the farm. i'm already convinced. but again, you dont let a kid who's never been above A ball (and frankly wasnt overly impressive in A ball) be a deal breaker in a potential jake peavy acquisition.

 

I guess the biggest problem I had was that you seemed to not give Vitters any chance of being great - hence the Kevin Orie reference.

 

The likelihood of busts is the reason you stack your farm as much as possible - in the event that a number of them bust.

when we're talking about a guy who was fairly average in A ball, why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

i don't get this post. first of all, .328/.365/.498 for an 18 year old in A ball is not "fairly average". it's pretty good.

 

second, even if his performance was bad (which again, it wasn't), why would you be writing off an 18 year old that quickly based on like the first 300 at-bats of his minor league career?

 

he was 18

Posted
19, but whatever.

 

i just dont consider an 860 OPS in A ball to be enough to be a deal breaker on a jake peavy trade.

 

18.

 

Guys who put up those #s in A ball at the age of 18 are few and far between. Half the guys his age are playing HIGH SCHOOL BASEBALL

Posted
19, but whatever.

 

i just dont consider an 860 OPS in A ball to be enough to be a deal breaker on a jake peavy trade.

 

but tht's not what you said. you said-

 

why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

so because of his good-but-not-great season last season at an extremely youn age you're not giving him a chance of being great? that makes no sense. i'm not pumping up vitters and of course i'd trade him for vitters. i just don't understand why you're not giving him a chance, especially considering he was pretty good last year.

 

and he didnt turn 19 until the end of the season

Posted
Alfonseca sucked for us after leaving Florida. Dolphin Stadium, other than 2007 which was a fluke, has always been a pitchers park. Gregg is 30, so it's probably not reasonable to expect any kind of improvement going forward, as he should now be on the downside of his peak. Kind of like Alfonseca when we got him. He very well may prove me wrong, (I hope so),

 

 

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

 

Lou wouldn't do this, but I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Wuertz as the closer and Marmol in the eighth inning/fireman role.

 

I don't have a terrible problem with Gregg - I just wonder if Ceda didn't have more value than a decent ML reliever. Maybe not, but that's my only real problem with that move.

 

 

Wuertz is just too inconsistent from season to season to count on in that role. It's not just Lou, remember Dusty had him sent to the minors in 2006 for simliar reasons. Wuertz just goes into terrible slumps were he can't throw a strike or get anybody out. Of course he can also be very good for weeks at a time. But it's hard to trust a reliever that inconsistent in a major role in the pen. In 07, Wuertz avoid those terrible slumps for the most part and had a Kevin Gregg like year. Personally I see Gregg as a harder to hit verison of Dempster. He will walk people like Dempster did, but teams only hitting in the low 200s off him. It will keep his era down as a reliever, unlike Dempster who teams hit 240-260 off him mixed with all the walks.

 

Kevin Gregg, ERAs by year:

 

4.21

5.04

4.14

3.54

3.41

 

Michael Wuertz, ERAs by year:

 

3.81

2.66

3.48

3.63

 

Who is inconsistent?

Posted
That said, though, you seemed to be erring too much on the side of him busting out. Vitters is still very young and has a good chance to be very good. I'm not sure he'll ever reach the Aramis/Wright level, but I'd say that's more likely than being Kevin Orie.

the vast majority of prospects ultimately are busts though.

 

The vast majority aren't extremely well thought of.

 

Vitters is much more highly regarded than most prospects. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily turn into anything, but he still has a greater shot than most.

 

The vast majority of good to great teams out there get a strong aid from their minor league system. Unless you're the Yankees and can throw $250 million around, there are going to be spots that you must fill with cheap talent. That's where the farm system is most important.

i don't disagree with any of that. you dont have to try and convince me of the importance of producing talent from the farm. i'm already convinced. but again, you dont let a kid who's never been above A ball (and frankly wasnt overly impressive in A ball) be a deal breaker in a potential jake peavy acquisition.

 

I guess the biggest problem I had was that you seemed to not give Vitters any chance of being great - hence the Kevin Orie reference.

 

The likelihood of busts is the reason you stack your farm as much as possible - in the event that a number of them bust.

when we're talking about a guy who was fairly average in A ball, why should i give him any chance of being great?

 

i don't get this post. first of all, .328/.365/.498 for an 18 year old in A ball is not "fairly average". it's pretty good.

 

second, even if his performance was bad (which again, it wasn't), why would you be writing off an 18 year old that quickly based on like the first 300 at-bats of his minor league career?

 

he was 18

How is a line of .328/.365/.498 fairly average for a 18 year old in his first full season? I would consider that very impressive considering he also battled a hand/wrist injury for a chunk of the season, along with adjusting to a whole new lifestyle and a much higher level of baseball. 99% of the kids his age in the country are still playing for their high schools/legion teams and worrying about who are they going to take to prom and studying for their ACT's/SAT's. Not figuring out how to play 3B in A ball and how to hit breaking pitches/stuff he has never seen before.

Posted

short season A ball

 

Big big difference.

 

But yeah, his OPS ranked 6th in the league and he was one of the younger players in the league. He had a great year.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

×
×
  • Create New...