Cubs acquire Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda

[cubsfan26]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, 13m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year, I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

Edited November 14, 2008 by cubsfan26

[ELCABALLO45]

Gagne 10 Million

Riske 4

Torres 3.3

Mota 3.2

Edited November 14, 2008 by ELCABALLO45

[RedFlash]

Although I don't want Gregg as a closer (ideally 7th inning/backup closer), this move will turn out to be a nice under the radar move for the Cubs provided they keep Gregg. The biggest thing Roths will work on with Gregg is lowering the walks of Gregg. If Gregg can lower his walk totals, then he can become a really good reliever.

 

Ohhh, its just that easy?

 

I didn't say it would be easy, I just said if he can. I'm not holding out hope he can though. I not ready to cry bloody murder at Hendry for trading prolly an overrated prospect (in a decent farm system, he's likely a 10-15 overall prospect) for a reliever who should/will help the Cubs in 2009.

[CubColtPacer]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

I think Torres is an ok comp, but not nearly close enough to get much true value out of the comparison. Torres was 5 years older, was coming off an absolutely awful season (5.47 ERA, 1.405 WHIP..advanced statistics show he was rather unlucky in 2007, but we know how much that actually factors into trade value). Plus there was no possibility of free agent compensation down the line because it was known that he was starting to get the itch to possibly retire. Plus, the highest number of games Torres had ever saved in a season was 12, and he was traded purely to be the setup man he had been for most of his career. Essentially, Torres last year would be Bob Howry this year if Howry was still under contract.

 

That's opposed to Gregg who is 5 years younger, is coming off 2 good years, has those back to back 29+ save campaigns which inflates his value, and is a good bet for compensation after the season. Those are quite a bit of differences for trade value, enough to make it really hard to be worthwhile to figure out exactly how much more trade value did Gregg have than Torres. All we know is that it was a significant amount.

[nilodnayr]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, I believe 16m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year(unless he's much better next year), I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

 

Exactly, the point is that its a bad decision to SIGN an average reliever for 5M, its an idiotic decision to trade one of your best prospects for one.

 

People dont get that theres such a ridiculous attrition for non to 10-15 draft picks. If Ceda was in college he wouldnt last past the protected picks, you can bet that. So NO, comp picks do not replace Ceda.

[RedFlash]

[Alternatives:

 

Trading someone other than Ceda for Gregg

Signing Affeldt

Signing Springer

Signing Oliver

Signing Cruz

Signing Hoffman

Signing Farns

Signing Lyon

Trading for Street

Trading for Heilman

Trading for a Rays reliever

Trading for Madson

umpteen bagillion other serviceable relievers

 

Do you really think it was Gregg or bust? Do you really think they wouldnt have traded for anyone but Ceda? Are you really that uncreative?

 

 

Only two guys on that list that were/still are available to the Cubs that I would want would be Street and Affeldt. Both would be upgrades over Gregg. Everybody else on that list are either unavailable (Madson), expensive to acquire (Rays relievers) or not an upgrade at all (Lyon, Oliver, Springer---who has said it's either St. Lou or retirement, unless that's changed). Heilman would be intriguing, but if a bullpen starved Mets team is willing to trade Heilman, what does that say to you?

[cubsfan26]

Rotoworld made it sound like Kevin Gregg might have had a little more value then Jose Ceda.

 

 

 

The Marlins will get Jose Ceda from the Cubs for Kevin Gregg, the Miami Herald confirms.

 

We'd hardly call it a great trade for Florida, but that's a better return than they received in the previous deal as part of their latest fire sale.

[Iceblink]

Why does Hendry like building the Marlins' stockpile of young pitchers so much?

[mikeyt34]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

[Rob]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

 

Kevin Gregg nets us draft picks if he closes for us and closes well.

 

Carlos Marmol can be more effective for us if he isn't closing.

 

That's as far as I need to think about it.

[cubsfan26]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, I believe 16m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year(unless he's much better next year), I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

 

Exactly, the point is that its a bad decision to SIGN an average reliever for 5M, its an idiotic decision to trade one of your best prospects for one.

 

People dont get that theres such a ridiculous attrition for non to 10-15 draft picks. If Ceda was in college he wouldnt last past the protected picks, you can bet that. So NO, comp picks do not replace Ceda.

 

I think it's better to trade for a reliever for one year at 5m, then sign one for three years at 15m. For example I thought Bob Howry was worth his money the first two years of the deal, but sucking last year turn his contract into a bad one. I dunno maybe your higher on Ceda then me, but I don't see Ceda as a much better prospect then say Andrew Cashner once he has some success in the minors. You can get plenty of good players after the top 10-15 picks, and the Cubs might actually get a better prospect then Ceda. But the whole point of this is to replace Wood, and like mentioned before there wasn't really alot better options. It's not like the Cubs made this trade for the heck of it, they did it to have a proven late inning reliever to pitch with Marmol.

Edited November 14, 2008 by cubsfan26

[nilodnayr]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

I think Torres is an ok comp, but not nearly close enough to get much true value out of the comparison. Torres was 5 years older, was coming off an absolutely awful season (5.47 ERA, 1.405 WHIP..advanced statistics show he was rather unlucky in 2007, but we know how much that actually factors into trade value). Plus there was no possibility of free agent compensation down the line because it was known that he was starting to get the itch to possibly retire. Plus, the highest number of games Torres had ever saved in a season was 12, and he was traded purely to be the setup man he had been for most of his career. Essentially, Torres last year would be Bob Howry this year if Howry was still under contract.

 

That's opposed to Gregg who is 5 years younger, is coming off 2 good years, has those back to back 29+ save campaigns which inflates his value, and is a good bet for compensation after the season. Those are quite a bit of differences for trade value, enough to make it really hard to be worthwhile to figure out exactly how much more trade value did Gregg have than Torres. All we know is that it was a significant amount.

 

ERA? Seriously?

2007 torres k/bb: 1.57

2008 gregg k/bb: 2.91

 

Torres had a babip 20 points over expected and a flukey hr/fb

 

greggs babip is 60 points under expected and the lowest hr/fb of his career

[nilodnayr]

Rotoworld made it sound like Kevin Gregg might have had a little more value then Jose Ceda.

 

 

 

The Marlins will get Jose Ceda from the Cubs for Kevin Gregg, the Miami Herald confirms.

 

We'd hardly call it a great trade for Florida, but that's a better return than they received in the previous deal as part of their latest fire sale.

 

thats not a comment on the cubs trade its a comment on the nats trade

[nilodnayr]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, I believe 16m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year(unless he's much better next year), I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

 

Exactly, the point is that its a bad decision to SIGN an average reliever for 5M, its an idiotic decision to trade one of your best prospects for one.

 

People dont get that theres such a ridiculous attrition for non to 10-15 draft picks. If Ceda was in college he wouldnt last past the protected picks, you can bet that. So NO, comp picks do not replace Ceda.

 

I think it's better to trade for a reliever for one year at 5m, then sign one for three years at 15m. I dunno maybe your higher on Ceda then me, but I don't see Ceda as a much better prospect then say Andrew Cashner once he has some success in the minors. You can get plenty of good players after the top 10-15 picks, and the Cubs might actually get a better prospect then Ceda.

 

you say that so flippantly

[David]

Rotoworld made it sound like Kevin Gregg might have had a little more value then Jose Ceda.

 

 

 

The Marlins will get Jose Ceda from the Cubs for Kevin Gregg, the Miami Herald confirms.

 

We'd hardly call it a great trade for Florida, but that's a better return than they received in the previous deal as part of their latest fire sale.

 

thats not a comment on the cubs trade its a comment on the nats trade

 

Not that it matters all that much or really means anything that someone at Rotoworld commented one way or another, but I'd say the first part of it is a comment on the Cubs trade.

[mikeyt34]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

 

Kevin Gregg nets us draft picks if he closes for us and closes well.

 

Carlos Marmol can be more effective for us if he isn't closing.

 

That's as far as I need to think about it.

 

But how will Marmol take the news that he isn't going to be closer? I'm sure he would be a little trooper and say the right things like, "whatever's best for the team" and such, but you have to think the guy will want to close. Put yourself in Marmol's shoes, don't you think he deserves it? I'm not saying Marmol closing is the best thing for the team, but the way Larry and Lou managed his innings last year has me somewhat concerned.

[David]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

 

No, I'd rather use him in the role that is most important to the team winning games and just manage his innings well instead of using him idiotically.

[17 Seconds]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

 

Kevin Gregg nets us draft picks if he closes for us and closes well.

 

Carlos Marmol can be more effective for us if he isn't closing.

 

That's as far as I need to think about it.

 

But how will Marmol take the news that he isn't going to be closer? I'm sure he would be a little trooper and say the right things like, "whatever's best for the team" and such, but you have to think the guy will want to close. Put yourself in Marmol's shoes, don't you think he deserves it? I'm not saying Marmol closing is the best thing for the team, but the way Larry and Lou managed his innings last year has me somewhat concerned.

 

Who cares what Marmol thinks? He is the employee

[weis21]

Gagne 10 Million

Riske 4

Torres 3.3

Mota 3.2

What's the purpose of this, that we're not supposed to pay closer's 10 million per year?

 

Glad we dodged that bullet.

[nilodnayr]

[Alternatives:

 

Trading someone other than Ceda for Gregg

Signing Affeldt

Signing Springer

Signing Oliver

Signing Cruz

Signing Hoffman

Signing Farns

Signing Lyon

Trading for Street

Trading for Heilman

Trading for a Rays reliever

Trading for Madson

umpteen bagillion other serviceable relievers

 

Do you really think it was Gregg or bust? Do you really think they wouldnt have traded for anyone but Ceda? Are you really that uncreative?

 

 

Only two guys on that list that were/still are available to the Cubs that I would want would be Street and Affeldt. Both would be upgrades over Gregg. Everybody else on that list are either unavailable (Madson), expensive to acquire (Rays relievers) or not an upgrade at all (Lyon, Oliver, Springer---who has said it's either St. Lou or retirement, unless that's changed). Heilman would be intriguing, but if a bullpen starved Mets team is willing to trade Heilman, what does that say to you?

 

It says that 5 minutes worth of thinking proved that there are alternatives?

[17 Seconds]

I'm not so sure that using him as the closer would limit his innings anyways. We all know how Lou is. As soon as Gregg and all the other mediocre arms in the pen start walking guys and getting into trouble in the 8th you know he'll bring in Marmol for an extra out...or 2...or 3

 

Really Lou can't help himself when it comes to relievers and Marmol. I oculd see him saying to Rothschild before the game "Okay seriously Larry, you CAN NOT let me use Marmol for mroe than an inning tonight. It's your job to stop me...no matter what I say"

[cubsfan26]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, I believe 16m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year(unless he's much better next year), I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

 

Exactly, the point is that its a bad decision to SIGN an average reliever for 5M, its an idiotic decision to trade one of your best prospects for one.

 

People dont get that theres such a ridiculous attrition for non to 10-15 draft picks. If Ceda was in college he wouldnt last past the protected picks, you can bet that. So NO, comp picks do not replace Ceda.

 

I think it's better to trade for a reliever for one year at 5m, then sign one for three years at 15m. I dunno maybe your higher on Ceda then me, but I don't see Ceda as a much better prospect then say Andrew Cashner once he has some success in the minors. You can get plenty of good players after the top 10-15 picks, and the Cubs might actually get a better prospect then Ceda.

 

you say that so flippantly

 

 

I was just using it as a example of a reliever/starter with good stuff, that we drafted in not the top 10-15 picks. Who knows if Cashner will be as good as Ceda was. But the point I was trying to make is, we have a decent chance of getting a good prospect out of the four picks we get for losing Wood/Gregg.

[imb]

a big fat pitcher with two pitches and no control

 

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush that's what she said

[nilodnayr]

I can't find a single playoff team that had a 5M setup man. I'm not sure there's one in existence that wasn't paid by the Yankees. The draft pick is assuming that Gregg does well enough for us to qualify as an A in addition to not accept arb.

 

The Brewers had a few guys making around 5m as set-up guys. I think the Phillies also paid Tom Gordon around 5m, but he was on the DL. Plus nobody said that Gregg wouldn't end up being the closer next season. As for being a type A, Gregg just has be somewhat decent this year and he will. But after how he pitched the last two years, I don't know why we would suck next year at his age. Besides a two week stretch when Gregg was probably pitching hurt, he was pretty good last year.

Riske? Who'd they trade for him?

 

Actually, speaking of the brewers reminded me that the Torres trade is a pretty good comp...Ceda is much more highly thought of than either guy the Bucs got.

 

 

They didn't trade him for anybody, but they signed him to a 3y, I believe 16m deal. I much rather trade a questionable prospect like Ceda for one year of Gregg at 4-5m, and draft picks next offseason. As long as Hendry doesn't resign Gregg at the end of the year(unless he's much better next year), I don't see how this is such a horrible trade. You use Gregg for a year, and you get draft picks at the end of the year to replace Ceda in your system.

 

Exactly, the point is that its a bad decision to SIGN an average reliever for 5M, its an idiotic decision to trade one of your best prospects for one.

 

People dont get that theres such a ridiculous attrition for non to 10-15 draft picks. If Ceda was in college he wouldnt last past the protected picks, you can bet that. So NO, comp picks do not replace Ceda.

 

I think it's better to trade for a reliever for one year at 5m, then sign one for three years at 15m. I dunno maybe your higher on Ceda then me, but I don't see Ceda as a much better prospect then say Andrew Cashner once he has some success in the minors. You can get plenty of good players after the top 10-15 picks, and the Cubs might actually get a better prospect then Ceda.

 

you say that so flippantly

 

 

I was just using it as a example of a reliever/starter with good stuff, that we drafted in not the top 10-15 picks. Who knows if Cashner will be as good as Ceda was. But the point I was trying to make is, we have a decent chance of getting a good prospect out of the four picks we get for losing Wood/Gregg.

 

Guys outside 10-15 look OK the year you draft them of course otherwise you wouldn't draft them, duh, its that their attrition rate is much higher (and Cashner at 19 was barely outside the range and we aren't going to get a 1st rounder for Gregg). Thats exactly the point, no one knows if Cashner is going to be as good as Ceda, but we DO know that Ceda will be as good as Ceda.

[mikeyt34]

I for one think Marmol deserves first crack at being the closer. I know how important he can be putting out fires in the 7th or 8th, but this could lead to him be overused again, like right before the Allstar Break last year, when he fell apart for about a month. If you have a guy who you know could be a premier closer in Marmol, wouldn't you just give him the job, and work around him with the other guys in set up roles. Marmol would thrive in the closer role, Lou and Larry could manage his innings much better than they did last year, and keep him fresh, strong, and healthy all year long. Just my two cents.

 

No, I'd rather use him in the role that is most important to the team winning games and just manage his innings well instead of using him idiotically.

 

Well let's hope Gregg does the job as the closer, but I think he will have a short lease with Marmol chomping at the bit. I know having Marmol in his same role as last year is better for the team, but after a few blown saves by Gregg early on in the season, Lou and Larry may not have a choice.