Cubs acquire Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda

[UK1679666180]

His ARP was just under 6, which would've placed him 3rd on the Cubs and 109th overall, which is pretty accurate to how I'd rate him. He's no better than the 3rd option on an avg. bullpen and a solid 4th option on a good bullpen.

 

(ARP is the adjusted formula for how many runs a reliever prevented from scoring compared to an avg. reliever)

[Guest]

I want to make it clear that I'm not looking to start some thread consuming flame war between any posters here.

 

I'm also not looking to justify the trade. I know there are always many intangibles to consider when a vet and a AA prospect are involved that peoples opinions of these type of trades often get very polarized.

 

However, if a pitcher doesn't allow many runners to reach, doesn't allow many hits, and when he does, the hits often are not big ones, I find it hard to understand how that can be so easily dismissed unimportant. Afterall, besides allowing runs, that is the goal of any pitcher, isn't it?

The argument is based on which stats a pitcher has some measure of control over and those that are far more subject to random variation or other impacts. The items meph was picking on are implied to be those that fall into the latter category.

 

I can understand that repeating the same argument over and over can get tiresome...but meph does need to learn to either let the statement go unchallenged or say more than he does. I know I've been guilty of the same type of thing in the past, but he has a well deserved reputation for taking that shortcut way too often.

 

Which, if any, of BAA, OBP, SLG can be found in the former?

All three of those stats are indirectly influenced by the items under a pitcher's control. But you're better off looking at things like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage that are under more direct control. From these items you can calculate an expected BAA, OBP, SLG that are more predictive of future triple slash stats than historic slash stats (ba, obp, slg).

[The Other 15]

pretty decent does not excite me. Mike Wuertz has been pretty decent for years and the Cubs keep screwing around with him.

Fair enough, but that's more of an issue with Lou's use of Wuertz than Gregg's performance.

 

I don't know where Gregg stands in relation to other relievers using BAA, OBP, SLG. But I would guess it's in the upper third, which makes him "alright" (a fair assessment).

[UK1679666180]

I'd still like to see someone like Hendrickson as the sit. lefty and someone like Lyon, Cordero, or Lincoln for the 7th inning as well as poss. using Lyon or Cordero in the 9th in case Gregg falters.

[17 Seconds]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

[The Other 15]

I want to make it clear that I'm not looking to start some thread consuming flame war between any posters here.

 

I'm also not looking to justify the trade. I know there are always many intangibles to consider when a vet and a AA prospect are involved that peoples opinions of these type of trades often get very polarized.

 

However, if a pitcher doesn't allow many runners to reach, doesn't allow many hits, and when he does, the hits often are not big ones, I find it hard to understand how that can be so easily dismissed unimportant. Afterall, besides allowing runs, that is the goal of any pitcher, isn't it?

The argument is based on which stats a pitcher has some measure of control over and those that are far more subject to random variation or other impacts. The items meph was picking on are implied to be those that fall into the latter category.

 

I can understand that repeating the same argument over and over can get tiresome...but meph does need to learn to either let the statement go unchallenged or say more than he does. I know I've been guilty of the same type of thing in the past, but he has a well deserved reputation for taking that shortcut way too often.

 

Which, if any, of BAA, OBP, SLG can be found in the former?

All three of those stats are indirectly influenced by the items under a pitcher's control. But you're better off looking at things like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage that are under more direct control. From these items you can calculate an expected BAA, OBP, SLG that are more predictive of future triple slash stats than historic slash stats (ba, obp, slg).

 

Ok, thanks. Then what do we make or Gregg's situation where his K rate went down, his BB rate went up, and his GB rate went drastically down over the last couple of years, yet he was still able to post those semi impressive numbers that I stated earlier? Just lucky? I'm not being sarcastic, I really don't know.

[Rob]

pretty decent does not excite me. Mike Wuertz has been pretty decent for years and the Cubs keep screwing around with him.

Fair enough, but that's more of an issue with Lou's use of Wuertz than Gregg's performance.

 

I don't know where Gregg stands in relation to other relievers using BAA, OBP, SLG. But I would guess it's in the upper third, which makes him "alright" (a fair assessment).

 

Relievers don't have all that much control over their triple slash stats. Look at Brad Lidge... his peripherals stayed pretty constant, but luck has made his numbers jump all over the place.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=lidge

[nilodnayr]

I want to make it clear that I'm not looking to start some thread consuming flame war between any posters here.

 

I'm also not looking to justify the trade. I know there are always many intangibles to consider when a vet and a AA prospect are involved that peoples opinions of these type of trades often get very polarized.

 

However, if a pitcher doesn't allow many runners to reach, doesn't allow many hits, and when he does, the hits often are not big ones, I find it hard to understand how that can be so easily dismissed unimportant. Afterall, besides allowing runs, that is the goal of any pitcher, isn't it?

The argument is based on which stats a pitcher has some measure of control over and those that are far more subject to random variation or other impacts. The items meph was picking on are implied to be those that fall into the latter category.

 

I can understand that repeating the same argument over and over can get tiresome...but meph does need to learn to either let the statement go unchallenged or say more than he does. I know I've been guilty of the same type of thing in the past, but he has a well deserved reputation for taking that shortcut way too often.

 

Which, if any, of BAA, OBP, SLG can be found in the former?

All three of those stats are indirectly influenced by the items under a pitcher's control. But you're better off looking at things like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage that are under more direct control. From these items you can calculate an expected BAA, OBP, SLG that are more predictive of future triple slash stats than historic slash stats (ba, obp, slg).

 

Ok, thanks. Then what do we make or Gregg's situation where his K rate went down, his BB rate went up, and his GB rate went drastically down over the last couple of years, yet he was still able to post those semi impressive numbers that I stated earlier? Just lucky? I'm not being sarcastic, I really don't know.

 

Yeah, a lot is luck. Just look at his BABIP. Its all over the place. When you are a reliever and only face 300 batters a year, there are going to be wild fluctuations in the stats you have no control over (and even the ones you do). Everyone keeps talking about how hes going to improve moving from the bad FLA defense to the good Cubs defense. His BABIP last year was 261 with a pretty normal batted ball distribution. How in God's name is he going to get a better defensive efficiency from that?!?!?

[Gingerballs Lives]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

[David]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

 

The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us.

 

The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way.

[Gingerballs Lives]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

 

The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us.

 

The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way.

 

You're exactly right. I think you mentioned in the other thread that it's much better to have Marmol pitching in his usual high-leverage spots.

 

Now, they're going to put him in the ninth and move someone who isn't as good into the more important role.

 

And now knowing that Wood would have taken a one-year deal? Brutal.

[nilodnayr]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

 

The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us.

 

The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way.

 

You're exactly right. I think you mentioned in the other thread that it's much better to have Marmol pitching in his usual high-leverage spots.

 

Now, they're going to put him in the ninth and move someone who isn't as good into the more important role.

 

And now knowing that Wood would have taken a one-year deal? Brutal.

 

Little known fact (evidently). Wood pitched in higher leverage situations than Marmol last year.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

 

The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us.

 

The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way.

 

You're exactly right. I think you mentioned in the other thread that it's much better to have Marmol pitching in his usual high-leverage spots.

 

Now, they're going to put him in the ninth and move someone who isn't as good into the more important role.

 

And now knowing that Wood would have taken a one-year deal? Brutal.

 

Little known fact (evidently). Wood pitched in higher leverage situations than Marmol last year.

 

Lou's inability to close a 5-7 run lead with anyone but Marmol or Howry had to hurt.

[Gingerballs Lives]

It's funny that hendry announced Wood won't be coming back right after the gregg trade, as though he thought Kevin Gregg would soften the blow and make it easier for the fans to take. Moron.

 

haha. I agree completely.

 

Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year.

 

He's a glorified Chad Gaudin.

 

The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us.

 

The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way.

 

You're exactly right. I think you mentioned in the other thread that it's much better to have Marmol pitching in his usual high-leverage spots.

 

Now, they're going to put him in the ninth and move someone who isn't as good into the more important role.

 

And now knowing that Wood would have taken a one-year deal? Brutal.

 

Little known fact (evidently). Wood pitched in higher leverage situations than Marmol last year.

 

That's because Marmol was used way too much, it skewed his numbers.

[David]

Those last two posts were exactly where I was gonna go.

 

Damn you guys.

[The Other 15]

pretty decent does not excite me. Mike Wuertz has been pretty decent for years and the Cubs keep screwing around with him.

Fair enough, but that's more of an issue with Lou's use of Wuertz than Gregg's performance.

 

I don't know where Gregg stands in relation to other relievers using BAA, OBP, SLG. But I would guess it's in the upper third, which makes him "alright" (a fair assessment).

 

Relievers don't have all that much control over their triple slash stats. Look at Brad Lidge... his peripherals stayed pretty constant, but luck has made his numbers jump all over the place.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=lidge

So, even indicators like K/BB rate and GB % aren't good enough because in the Lidge example you posted, his K/BB ratio and GB % has been about the same over the last 4 years yet his SLGA has been .323, .408, .409, and .269?

 

Conversely, when Gregg's GB% and K/BB ratio were better, he posted much worse slash splits.

 

Is it fair to say that we really don't know what will happen and can only go by what has happened?

[nilodnayr]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

[17 Seconds]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

[imb]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

[cubsfan26]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

Marmol and Wood were a great team to finish off the game.

 

If Wood is indeed gone, I hope Gregg (or anyone else besides Marmol) is the closer.

[17 Seconds]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

 

With the way Lou is, I just can't imagine him sticking with gregg as the closer as he's walking guys non-stop. I know Marmol walks a lot of guy's too, but he has the K's and the ability to not give up hits to make up for it.

 

I could see Gregg walking 2 guys and then serving up a 3 run bomb in a save opp in ST and Lou saying "that's it, Marmol is closing"

[cubsfan26]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

 

 

Yeah Lou used Marmol poorly the first two or two and half months, after that it was usually pretty much what you would expect. In Lou defense, the pen was crappy earlier in the year with Howry sucking and no Samardzija/Gaudin on the roster yet. But there's no excuse for him in a bunch of those games earlier in the year.

[cubsfan26]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

 

With the way Lou is, I just can't imagine him sticking with gregg as the closer as he's walking guys non-stop. I know Marmol walks a lot of guy's too, but he has the K's and the ability to not give up hits to make up for it.

 

I could see Gregg walking 2 guys and then serving up a 3 run bomb in a save opp in ST and Lou saying "that's it, Marmol is closing"

 

 

You would think that, but he stuck with Dempster as closer in 07. Even though Howry and Marmol were both pretty much lights out in the second half of 07. Gregg control as bad or simliar to Dempster, but he's also tougher to hit. As long as Gregg isn't blowing a bunch of saves Lou will stick with him. In 07 Gregg saved 32 of 36, and last year he was 26 of 32 before getting hurt and losing his closer spot, I'm sure the Marlins defense didn't help either. If he pitches anything like that I think Lou would stick with him as the closer.

[17 Seconds]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

 

With the way Lou is, I just can't imagine him sticking with gregg as the closer as he's walking guys non-stop. I know Marmol walks a lot of guy's too, but he has the K's and the ability to not give up hits to make up for it.

 

I could see Gregg walking 2 guys and then serving up a 3 run bomb in a save opp in ST and Lou saying "that's it, Marmol is closing"

 

 

You would think that, but he stuck with Dempster as closer in 07. Even though Howry and Marmol were both pretty much lights out in the second half of 07. Gregg control as bad or simliar to Dempster, but he's also tougher to hit. As long as Gregg isn't blowing a bunch of saves Lou will stick with him. In 07 Gregg saved 32 of 36, and last year he was 26 of 32 before getting hurt and losing his closer spot, I'm sure the Marlins defense didn't help either. If he pitches anything like that I think Lou would stick with him as the closer.

 

Dempster was a good example and I hope you're right, but i just have a feeling that Lou has Marmol as closer set in his mind