College Football - Week of 11/8

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.tommywilliams.org/secCoaches08.jpg

 

good old power rankings are coming out.....

 

Sports Illustrated (Mandel)

 

1. Alabama

2. Penn State

3. Texas Tech

4. Florida

5. Texas

6. Oklahoma

 

Fox Sports

1. Florida

2. Alabama

3. Texas Tech

4. Penn State

5. Texas

6. Oklahoma

 

These are meaningless obviously.

--------------------------------------------------

 

Bob Stoops wants a playoff now, obviously. His team has nearly no shot at the title game. Even if they win out will they jump Texas and Florida/Alabama?

[da bears]

Why does Florida get a pass for losing at home to Ole Miss, while Oklahoma is out of it because they lost to a top five team? Pretty stupid to me.

[Slugger_16]

http://www.tommywilliams.org/secCoaches08.jpg

 

I like they show Phil Fulmer with man boobs.

[Mephistopheles]

Why does Florida get a pass for losing at home to Ole Miss, while Oklahoma is out of it because they lost to a top five team? Pretty stupid to me.

 

because florida is trashing good teams? no ones playing better than florida. even OU fans know this. OU is pretty one dimensional. Defense is scary. Their offense is comparable to floridas. Floridas better on special teams.

[Mephistopheles]

if you match up wins (assuming UF wins out)

 

Florida beats Alabama, which is a comparable team to Texas and superior to Texas Christian.

Florida trashes Georgia, which is a comparable team to Texas Tech.

Florida trashes Louisiana State, which is a comparable team to Oklahoma State.

Florida trashes Miami, South Carolina and Florida State, which are comparable to Kansas and Missouri and probably TCU too.

 

Win for win Florida outdoes Oklahoma and Florida has whooped up on the teams. Oklahoma hasn't played them, but considering how poor their defense is, they won't be able to stop Mizzou, Texas Tech or Okie State enough to make it an eye popping game. Just because you guys keep saying the Ole Miss is a bad football team, it does not make it true.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ole Miss lost to a bad Vandy team at home.

[Mephistopheles]

Okay? Guys just because a bad team beats a good team it doesn't mean that that team isn't good. Bad teams will beat good teams. Games outcomes are probabilistic events.

[SouthSideRyan]

Beating Florida was very very impressive, but as you said it's a probabilistic outcome and if bad teams can beat good teams then mediocre teams can beat great teams. Other than the Florida game, what is there to hang their hat on? Losing to a mediocre South Carolina team? Losing to a medicore Wake team? Not blowing out Samford or Memphis? Squeaking by a bad Arkansas team?

[Mephistopheles]

South Carolina is a top 30 team. Wake is a top 40 team. They played Alabama tough. So they've played two games against top 10 teams, the games are -3 against them overall, but they were in both games. They lost to two other top 40 or so teams. Arkansas's not nearly as bad as they were earlier in the season. Really they've been in every game against good competition, so they are pretty much what they are a team in the 30-40 range. Just because they lost two close games to them does not mean they're worse of course.

 

They got outplayed by Florida, but they actually slightly outplayed Alabama despite the loss. They played South Carolina and Wake equally. They really did outplay Vanderbilt, but they turned the ball over SIX times. They gained twice as many yards as the Dores. Again, we should look at W's and L's, but really how well they played against these teams are more important. Which, on the flip side, is why Florida's loss to Ole Miss isn't all that bad. They outplayed them and a couple of flukish events caused them to lose.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If we're going to be so dogged to Sagarin that we're calling South Carolina a Top 30 team, then your blow by blow comparison of OU's schedule v. Florida's needs some revision.

[imb]

http://www.tommywilliams.org/secCoaches08.jpg

 

good old power rankings are coming out.....

 

Sports Illustrated (Mandel)

 

1. Alabama

2. Penn State

3. Texas Tech

4. Florida

5. Texas

6. Oklahoma

 

Fox Sports

1. Florida

2. Alabama

3. Texas Tech

4. Penn State

5. Texas

6. Oklahoma

 

These are meaningless obviously.

--------------------------------------------------

 

Bob Stoops wants a playoff now, obviously. His team has nearly no shot at the title game. Even if they win out will they jump Texas and Florida/Alabama?

 

it's like the 4th time he's changed his mind on a playoff

 

coincidentally each time he changes his mind his new version seems to favor the sooners

[Mephistopheles]

If we're going to be so dogged to Sagarin that we're calling South Carolina a Top 30 team, then your blow by blow comparison of OU's schedule v. Florida's needs some revision.

 

i ranked them top 25. and if you want to consider it as a blow by blow, floridas currently 3-1 vs top 30 teams in it, oklahomas 1-1. floridas 1-0 vs top 10, oklahoma is 0-1.

 

florida has games left vs #39, #19, #24, #27, and #4. oklahoma would have games left vs #5, #8,and #12.

 

the schedule played up until today is #10 in the nation for Florida, #38 for Oklahoma. Simply averaging games isn't the best way, of course. Let's make the assumption that Florida and Oklahoma are equal teams. The probability of losing 1 or 0 games through each teams schedules thus far:

 

75.67% Florida's

70.91% Oklahoma's

 

Granted Oklahoma has played one more game (which was against Chattanooga, which Florida "makes up" against The Citadel later this month).

 

Throughout the season, average teams talent by sagarin

 

75.11 Oklahoma

74.65 Florida

 

If you flatout rank the teams 1-20. Florida has W's over 2, 6, 8, 9, 10. Oklahoma has W's over 3, 4, 5, 7. A number of Floridas top teams have already gone through their gauntlet (which deflates their values as they get knocked off). In other words, Okie State, Missouri, and Texas Tech (3, 4, and 5) are going to end up with at least a combined 4 more losses between them. Whether you like it or not, it'll probably hurt OU more than anything.

 

Again, UF has played most of their gauntlet and has beaten them handedly. OU has not. Either way my point isn't that UF would have a better resume than OU. My point is that if OU and UF run the table and are sitting #3 and #4 in any permutation, Florida knocks off #1 Alabama and Oklahoma knocks off #13 Missouri, who would move up to #2? The team who beat #1 Alabama.

 

That being said, if Oklahoma runs the table, they're probably not in the title game if Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State.

[Andy]

Oklahoma's lost chance at the title game has a lot more to do with the fact that Texas, who beat them, is in the running than anything Oklahoma did wrong.

 

Florida did it right - lose to a cruddy team so they don't need to worry about a head to head situation like that.

[Mephistopheles]

Here's the real reason Sagarin's predictor does not care much about Florida's loss to Ole Miss. You can disagree if you want. There are some things to consider.

 

When evaluating predicative power of the game, there are numerous factors that are more important than the actual outcome. Mainly, how well your offense performs relative to their defense and how well your defense performs relative to their offense.

 

Florida outgained them 443 yards to 325 yards in a slow-paced game. Those 443 yards are the second most that Ole Miss has given up this year. Wake gained 10 more yards, but with 15% more plays. No one has been able to move the football as effectively against the Rebels as Florida has. On the flip side, Ole Miss' offensive output was actually the worst performance by them the entire season. Translation: Florida significantly outplayed Ole Miss by these indicators. Why was the score close? One reason: Turnovers. Florida put the ball on the ground five times, losing three fumbles. HOWEVER, fumbles are random events. There is very little skill level when it comes to putting the ball on the ground OR recovering them. In other words, this is extremely bad luck. If you think it's a consistent skill, well Florida debunks that. They're the #1 team in the nation in turnover margin, and have fumbled all of 10 times all season long (half in that game) and have lost 4 of them this season (three-fourths in that game). This is purely random and the REAL reason that Florida lost that game. Despite the fumbles it took a flukish missed PAT for Florida to lose the game. This in it of itself is a random event, considering Florida's kickers are 44 of 45 this year on PATs....thats actually better than OU's kickers. It just has happened that event happened then. Translation: random fluke.

 

Basically, all of this says, despite the outcome, on the football field during that game Florida showed that they were a significantly better football team than Ole Miss, though they may have been "outplayed" in that they lost the game. Sagarin looks at games like this, with some dependency on W/Ls as well. Again, this isn't any different than looking at runs and runs allowed in baseball for predicative power instead of actually who won or loss the games.

[Mephistopheles]

Florida's fumbles: The 35 yard line right on first down after a 29 yard pass. First down deep in Ole Miss territory on the 34 yard line. On first down deep in Ole Miss territory on the 18 yard line. That ended up basically being a 13 or 17 point swing at the least.

[Magnetic Curses]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQK_Vz9JH_g

 

here's hardeman's hit from last week's iowa/illinois game. you be the judge on how bad the officiating has gotten, even in a home game for the illini.

 

it was either the wrong call or a call that could eventually lead tackle to be reduced to two-hand touch. i hope the big ten reviews the call and reacts accordingly. i'm not calling for the heads of the crew, but i'd like to never ever see a call like this ever again.

 

it was not helmet-to-helmet and who the hell knows what a ref's interpretation of defenseless is? 2 refs threw flags, 2 of them! how can you call that hit a penalty? that's football, you idiots.

 

it makes me so mad to watch that crap.

 

Not disagreeing, just trying to clarify.

 

From the looks of that replay, especially the back angle with a guy cutting across the field of vision as it happened, I can see why a ref thought it was helmet-to helmet. It wasn't, but it was kinda close and the motion was the same as if it had been.

 

The other thing is, what is the actual wording on that rule? I've understood it that you can't lower your shoulder on a guy who's defenseless, which I take to mean is in the process of making a play on the ball.

 

i don't consider a receiver going over the middle "defenseless", it's so absolutely absurd to consider a receiver attempting to catch a football "defenseless" (i'm not saying that's what you believe, just chastising the referees a bit). football players are supposed to hit each other, it's what they do. what should hardeman have done to avoid the penalty, pushed him lightly and said, "excuse me, would you please drop that ball?" no that's ridiculous. if that hit was considered a hit on a "defenseless receiver", what kind of slippery-slope does that create? it was football, plain and simple.

 

the play was so obviously not a penalty, it was a guy getting his bell rung by a hand grenade-hitter, in a completely legal fashion.

 

btw, bob sanders got away with a lot more in college, for you hawkeyes out there.

[Vanilla Ice]

thank god cutcliffe is staying

[dew1679666265]

Well, so far so good on keeping our commitments. According to the Knoxville News-Sentinel's site, all 17 of Tennessee's commitments are remaining.

 

The biggest waiver is four star running back Jarvis Giles, who said he'll stay if running backs coach Stan Drayton stays, otherwise he's likely gone.

[dew1679666265]

And for the record, I’ve just received a tip that one of Tennessee’s largest boosters spent the day golfing with former Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Bill Cowher. I think I’ll take that one with a pretty big grain of salt. But heck, this is the internet… so I’ll throw it out there to see how many messageboards pick it up.

 

That's a heck of a rumor . . . :-))

 

From MrSEC.com - a very good website for those who are interested in the goings on around the SEC.

 

For the record, John Pennington is an imbecile. Maybe Cowher would have interest (and yes, I've heard the rumors since the day he left Pittsburgh), but Pennington is still an asshat of epic proportions.

 

Cutcliffe and Spurrier are off the Tennessee list.

 

Where are you seeing this?

 

Not that I thought there was the slightest chance that either would even be considered, I'm not seeing confirmation of it. Or are you just using common sense? :D

[Mephistopheles]

"I'm at Duke, staying at Duke," Cutcliffe said Tuesday. "This is going to be my last gig right here," the 63-year-old Spurrier said Monday night.

[dew1679666265]

"I'm at Duke, staying at Duke," Cutcliffe said Tuesday. "This is going to be my last gig right here," the 63-year-old Spurrier said Monday night.

 

Works for me. I wasn't questioning anything, just curious where those quotes were coming from.

 

Like I said, there was basically no chance either was even going to be considered for the job.

[Mephistopheles]

Cutcliffe would have been a candidate. He's maneuvered Duke to being an extremely underappreciated team in an extremely underappreciated conference.

[shnsajax]

"I'm at Duke, staying at Duke," Cutcliffe said Tuesday. "This is going to be my last gig right here," the 63-year-old Spurrier said Monday night.

 

Works for me. I wasn't questioning anything, just curious where those quotes were coming from.

 

Like I said, there was basically no chance either was even going to be considered for the job.

 

Here's the link

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3682303

[dew1679666265]

Cutcliffe would have been a candidate. He's maneuvered Duke to being an extremely underappreciated team in an extremely underappreciated conference.

 

He's a great coach, don't get me wrong. But this was a move forced by fan unrest and apathy. The worst thing UT front office folks (primarily Mike Hamilton) could do to combat that is to bring in a longtime Fulmer offensive coordinator as head coach.

 

No matter how much Cutcliffe deserves consideration (and he certainly does), there's no way Hamilton will consider someone fully tied in with Fulmer. Also, I really doubt Cut would have ever considered taking the job forcefully vacated by his longtime friend. He's not that desperate to move up in stature.

[dew1679666265]

"I'm at Duke, staying at Duke," Cutcliffe said Tuesday. "This is going to be my last gig right here," the 63-year-old Spurrier said Monday night.

 

Works for me. I wasn't questioning anything, just curious where those quotes were coming from.

 

Like I said, there was basically no chance either was even going to be considered for the job.

 

Here's the link

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3682303

 

Also in the article:

 

Asked directly about the Tennessee job after practice Tuesday, Davis said, "The long and short of it is, the administration and I are completely and firmly committed to building a championship football program at North Carolina. My family and I are very happy in Chapel Hill."

 

Not surprising, but still :(

 

And thanks for the link, by the way.