Jake Peavy: Available.

[RammyFanny]

You're right asbout the service time too, but I just (personally) get the impression it's close because we know Towers likes Pie and has tried acquiring him twice over the last few seasons.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Escobar, Reyes or Morton and Shafer probably beats any deal the Cubs make.

 

Marshall is more experienced than Reyes and Morton, but the ceiling of those two is viewed to be as high as Marshall, especially with Reyes. Shafer and Pie are likely equivalent due to Pie's struggles when he has been given playing time, but Escobar is head and shoulders better than Cedeno. My feeling is if the Padres really like Escobar, the Cubs will have a tough time beating the Braves offer.

 

We have to hope the Padres really like Pie or the fourth piece the Cubs would likely add in order to trump the Braves deal.

 

Prolly, but Peavy wouldn't accept that deal because Escobar is in it. At this point any offer the Braves make prolly don't have Escobar in it, which means the Cubs match any Braves offer or better, unless the Braves put either Heyward (who IMO, is a better prospect then Schafer) or Hanson. Reyes, IMO is like Horatio Ramirez/Bruce Chen/random left handed pitching prospect. I don't see any upside to him. He's like Sean Marshall without the upside. Morton is intriguing prospect, but not one that trumps anything the Cubs have. And Schafer, it depends on which CF prospect they like better; Schafer or Pie. Schafer is more likely to live up to potential, but Pie has the higher upside. Again, it would depend on which prospects they like better.

 

It's hard to gauge where the trade talks are right now, or which prospects the Padres really like, and not the ones that have been leaked. But if we are to believe that Peavy does not want Escobar traded, then that significantly hurts the Braves chances at landing Peavy, unless they put Hanson or Heyward into the deal. No Escobar/Hanson and/or Heyward, and the Cubs can trump anything the Braves can offer.

 

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

Edited November 8, 2008 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[BigbadB]

How is Schafer any better than Pie. The guy is just like Pie (.605 OPS vs. lefties and can't walk), is probably slightly worse in the field than Felix, and just got suspended for hgh or something (I know it was something...not sure if it was hgh).

 

2 years younger. Zero major league service time. Young for his league. What do you mean he doesn't walk? His OBP in '08 was more than 100 points better than his AVG. Over a full season, that equates to more than 100 walks.

 

Yeah, worst comparison ever. I'm not sure where that "doesn't walk" stuff is coming from either.

 

Not sure if the defense argument holds much weight, either. Schafer was listed as the best defensive outfielder and best outfield arm in the Braves farm system, not to mention a top prospect.

I'm not saying it isn't close, i'm just saying that it's up for debate.

 

To be fair, I'm not trying to justify a deal to the Braves. To me, the Braves are stupid to trade any of their youth for a win now mentality. They are clearly not a win now team. Too many things would have to go right this coming year for them to be competitive against the Phillies and Mets. Why not just fill a couple of holes with cheap free agents, and hope that Reyes, Hanson, Heyward, Brandon Jones, Jurgens, Escobar, Hernandez, etc... develop into something that they can build their future on?

 

While the Braves can beat whatever the Cubs throw out there, it sounds like Peavy isn't going to have much interest in the Braves if they deplete their talent pool. That's the kicker for the Cubs, and it's why I'm somewhat hopeful that Hendry can come up with a package that will satisfy Towers.

[RedFlash]

While the Braves can beat whatever the Cubs throw out there, it sounds like Peavy isn't going to have much interest in the Braves if they deplete their talent pool. That's the kicker for the Cubs, and it's why I'm somewhat hopeful that Hendry can come up with a package that will satisfy Towers.

 

I agree. Personally I think Towers/Hendry has the perimeters of a deal in place, but there is a certain player/pitcher that Towers wants Hendry to include (whoever that might be, different teams hold different value on certain prospects) in the deal, and Hendry ask Towers to give him the weekend to think about. IDK if that is true or not, that's a theory.

[RedFlash]

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

 

I disagree about Reyes. I didn't see anything that warrants him having good upside. Not to mention when was the last time the Braves developed a homegrown pitching talent (they acquire via UNFA, draft, anything but tradeS) and kept them? Millwood? Glavine? Chuck James? Andrew Lerew? I think teams are still leary about question Braves pitchng prospects. Because of Schmidt--pre injury, Wainwright, and Millwood, no other great prospect from the Braves gone off to stardom. So, teams aren't quick to acquire LH prospects from the Braves, thus IMO, Reyes doesn't have much value in trade talks. That why Marshall has more value, because he's soon he can pitch at the major league level. IMO, Reyes is a non-factor in talks. IMO, Reyes would be a throw-in in this deal, and not main piece.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

 

I disagree about Reyes. I didn't see anything that warrants him having good upside. Not to mention when was the last time the Braves developed a homegrown pitching talent (they acquire via UNFA, draft, anything but tradeS) and kept them? Millwood? Glavine? Chuck James? Andrew Lerew? I think teams are still leary about question Braves pitchng prospects. Because of Schmidt--pre injury, Wainwright, and Millwood, no other great prospect from the Braves gone off to stardom. So, teams aren't quick to acquire LH prospects from the Braves, thus IMO, Reyes doesn't have much value in trade talks. That why Marshall has more value, because he's soon he can pitch at the major league level. IMO, Reyes is a non-factor in talks. IMO, Reyes would be a throw-in in this deal, and not main piece.

 

If Reyes is a throw-in, so is Sean Marshall.

[Clem Fandango]

His defense is stellar, people have compared him to Pudge in that regard. The consensus is that his offense will come, and he should at least be an adequate bat in a lineup, probably not like Soto but certainly serviceable.

Yes, he's an outstanding defensive catcher. His offense is more than fine for a catcher at .298/.362/.414 at age 21 in AA. When he was selected for the futures game he was OPSing more than 900 in Tennessee.

 

Thanks guys. That puts a much brighter perspective on him for me now. Would he be viewed as a top prospect though if he were included in a trade, or just an average prospect?

[RedFlash]

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

 

I disagree about Reyes. I didn't see anything that warrants him having good upside. Not to mention when was the last time the Braves developed a homegrown pitching talent (they acquire via UNFA, draft, anything but tradeS) and kept them? Millwood? Glavine? Chuck James? Andrew Lerew? I think teams are still leary about question Braves pitchng prospects. Because of Schmidt--pre injury, Wainwright, and Millwood, no other great prospect from the Braves gone off to stardom. So, teams aren't quick to acquire LH prospects from the Braves, thus IMO, Reyes doesn't have much value in trade talks. That why Marshall has more value, because he's soon he can pitch at the major league level. IMO, Reyes is a non-factor in talks. IMO, Reyes would be a throw-in in this deal, and not main piece.

 

If Reyes is a throw-in, so is Sean Marshall.

 

Nope.. Marshall has put ERA+ of 116 and 119 the last two yrs. Reyes has put up ERA+ of 69 and 72 the last two yrs. Granted Reyes is in a smaller sample size then Marshall. 3.40/1.23 .v. 2.69/1.13 (ERA and whip) these are the career numbers in the minors of Jo Reyes and Sean Marshall respectively. Even in the minors, Marshall has been the better pitcher in few innings, mind you. Reyes may have higher upside, but Marshall--RIGHT NOW---is clearly a better pitcher then Reyes thus more value.

[Outshined_One]

His defense is stellar, people have compared him to Pudge in that regard. The consensus is that his offense will come, and he should at least be an adequate bat in a lineup, probably not like Soto but certainly serviceable.

Yes, he's an outstanding defensive catcher. His offense is more than fine for a catcher at .298/.362/.414 at age 21 in AA. When he was selected for the futures game he was OPSing more than 900 in Tennessee.

 

Thanks guys. That puts a much brighter perspective on him for me now. Would he be viewed as a top prospect though if he were included in a trade, or just an average prospect?

 

Decent prospect with a nice upside. Basically a guy who seems like a throw-in at the time, but could be surprisingly good a few years from now.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

 

I disagree about Reyes. I didn't see anything that warrants him having good upside. Not to mention when was the last time the Braves developed a homegrown pitching talent (they acquire via UNFA, draft, anything but tradeS) and kept them? Millwood? Glavine? Chuck James? Andrew Lerew? I think teams are still leary about question Braves pitchng prospects. Because of Schmidt--pre injury, Wainwright, and Millwood, no other great prospect from the Braves gone off to stardom. So, teams aren't quick to acquire LH prospects from the Braves, thus IMO, Reyes doesn't have much value in trade talks. That why Marshall has more value, because he's soon he can pitch at the major league level. IMO, Reyes is a non-factor in talks. IMO, Reyes would be a throw-in in this deal, and not main piece.

 

If Reyes is a throw-in, so is Sean Marshall.

 

Nope.. Marshall has put ERA+ of 116 and 119 the last two yrs. Reyes has put up ERA+ of 69 and 72 the last two yrs. Granted Reyes is in a smaller sample size then Marshall. 3.40/1.23 .v. 2.69/1.13 (ERA and whip) these are the career numbers in the minors of Jo Reyes and Sean Marshall respectively. Even in the minors, Marshall has been the better pitcher in few innings, mind you. Reyes may have higher upside, but Marshall--RIGHT NOW---is clearly a better pitcher then Reyes thus more value.

 

Just because Marshall has had more success doesn't mean he has more value. I've already said that personally, I'd prefer Marshall based on his success, but Reyes has better "stuff" even if he hasn't turned that into major league success. Reyes is also younger. In regards to who has more value depends on what a team wants. Marshall has proven he can pitch in the majors and has more experience. To some that may make him more valuable. On the other hand, Reyes has a higher ceiling, but hasn't reached it. If both players reach their ceiling, Reyes will be the better pitcher.

[RedFlash]

As a prospect, Reyes has as much upside if not more than Marshall. Like Marshall, Reyes struggled in his first attempts in the big leagues. Reyes is younger than Marshall and is regarded as having better stuff. I'd probably prefer Marshall based on what he did last year as a fill-in, but many teams might value Reyes more.

 

Also, I'm not so sure the Braves have to remove Escobar. The Braves could convince Peavy they have the means to replace Escobar through free agency or with another trade.

 

I want to hope the Cubs get him, and I think we're in the thick of it, but if the Braves offer Escobar, Reyes, and Shafer instead of Gorkys, we might not be able to match that.

 

I disagree about Reyes. I didn't see anything that warrants him having good upside. Not to mention when was the last time the Braves developed a homegrown pitching talent (they acquire via UNFA, draft, anything but tradeS) and kept them? Millwood? Glavine? Chuck James? Andrew Lerew? I think teams are still leary about question Braves pitchng prospects. Because of Schmidt--pre injury, Wainwright, and Millwood, no other great prospect from the Braves gone off to stardom. So, teams aren't quick to acquire LH prospects from the Braves, thus IMO, Reyes doesn't have much value in trade talks. That why Marshall has more value, because he's soon he can pitch at the major league level. IMO, Reyes is a non-factor in talks. IMO, Reyes would be a throw-in in this deal, and not main piece.

 

If Reyes is a throw-in, so is Sean Marshall.

 

Nope.. Marshall has put ERA+ of 116 and 119 the last two yrs. Reyes has put up ERA+ of 69 and 72 the last two yrs. Granted Reyes is in a smaller sample size then Marshall. 3.40/1.23 .v. 2.69/1.13 (ERA and whip) these are the career numbers in the minors of Jo Reyes and Sean Marshall respectively. Even in the minors, Marshall has been the better pitcher in few innings, mind you. Reyes may have higher upside, but Marshall--RIGHT NOW---is clearly a better pitcher then Reyes thus more value.

 

Just because Marshall has had more success doesn't mean he has more value. I've already said that personally, I'd prefer Marshall based on his success, but Reyes has better "stuff" even if he hasn't turned that into major league success. Reyes is also younger. In regards to who has more value depends on what a team wants. Marshall has proven he can pitch in the majors and has more experience. To some that may make him more valuable. On the other hand, Reyes has a higher ceiling, but hasn't reached it. If both players reach their ceiling, Reyes will be the better pitcher.

 

Fair enough point. But name the last Braves homegrown talent to reach his ceiling while with the Braves? Kevin Millwood? Chuck James? Horatio Ramirez? Glavine? That's at least 4 since 1990, to me not a good thing. Since the end of the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz era, the Braves have used free agency/scouting (ie for guys like Campillo) and trades (most) to fill their rotation (Hampton/Hudson/Jurrjens, etc, etc) So that tells me that the Braves don't value their pitching prospects as highly as they once did.

 

I'm just going by what Towers has said he prefers in a Peavy trade. He wants major league ready pitching and players. Sean Marshall is major league ready, and Jo Jo Reyes, we don't know. In this case Marshall has more value to the Padres because of his success thus far, then Jo Jo Reyes. Jo Jo would prolly be a better pick up for a team like the Marlins (for Olsen) who don't always need a pitcher/player to be to contribute immediately. They can take their time with Reyes.

[RammyFanny]

Is that Podcast up yet?

[davearm2]

I'm having trouble finding out why Castillo is so highly touted amongst the forum. His numbers don't look all that impressive to me, is he an excellent defensive minded catcher? Because his offense doesn't look like anything special. Just wondering

Soto's offense didn't look like anything special at Castillo's current age either: .756 OPS in AA at 21; .629 the year before in Daytona.

[David]

Towers was just on with Levine and basicly said he would give Hendry the leg up becasue of their relationship. This is what Hendry brings to the table, alot of baseball people like him.

 

No offense to Dallas, but did anyone else hear this?

 

I find it rather hard to believe that Towers would say that.

 

He definitely said it.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Fair enough point. But name the last Braves homegrown talent to reach his ceiling while with the Braves? Kevin Millwood? Chuck James? Horatio Ramirez? Glavine? That's at least 4 since 1990, to me not a good thing. Since the end of the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz era, the Braves have used free agency/scouting (ie for guys like Campillo) and trades (most) to fill their rotation (Hampton/Hudson/Jurrjens, etc, etc) So that tells me that the Braves don't value their pitching prospects as highly as they once did.

 

I'm just going by what Towers has said he prefers in a Peavy trade. He wants major league ready pitching and players. Sean Marshall is major league ready, and Jo Jo Reyes, we don't know. In this case Marshall has more value to the Padres because of his success thus far, then Jo Jo Reyes. Jo Jo would prolly be a better pick up for a team like the Marlins (for Olsen) who don't always need a pitcher/player to be to contribute immediately. They can take their time with Reyes.

 

Judging Reyes based on past Braves prospects is pointless. That's equivalent to saying all of the Cubs hitting prospects suck because the Cubs haven't produced a decent regular since Mark Grace. It's meaningless.

 

Reyes could be deemed by some teams as just as ready as Marshall. Marshall has more major league experience, but Jo Jo isn't a guy who isn't ready. He's going to be in a major league rotation next season whether that's with the Braves or elsewhere.

 

I don't know where you get that the Braves don't value their pitching prospects. They've given spots to Morton and Reyes. I know you want to say Reyes is a throw-in, but he has as much value to the deal as Marshall does to ours.

[JeffH]

Towers was just on with Levine and basicly said he would give Hendry the leg up becasue of their relationship. This is what Hendry brings to the table, alot of baseball people like him.

 

No offense to Dallas, but did anyone else hear this?

 

I find it rather hard to believe that Towers would say that.

 

He definitely said it.

 

Thanks, David. That's some wild stuff.

[Guest]

His defense is stellar, people have compared him to Pudge in that regard. The consensus is that his offense will come, and he should at least be an adequate bat in a lineup, probably not like Soto but certainly serviceable.

Yes, he's an outstanding defensive catcher. His offense is more than fine for a catcher at .298/.362/.414 at age 21 in AA. When he was selected for the futures game he was OPSing more than 900 in Tennessee.

 

Thanks guys. That puts a much brighter perspective on him for me now. Would he be viewed as a top prospect though if he were included in a trade, or just an average prospect?

 

PIe is better regarded but he's no longer considered a prospect. Ceda is a better prospect if he were included. But Castillo is a good prospect and would be in most team's top 10 lists.

[17 Seconds]

Is that Podcast up yet?

 

I want to hear it too. I looked for it but I can't find it.

[Post Count Padder]

Summary of recent events from CBS Sportsline:

 

I'm giving up and setting up a post to house Jake Peavy rumors, because I keep coming across different variations. I'll update the post if I come across more as the afternoon goes on. To recap:

 

Buster Olney expects a deal before Thanksgiving.

Ken Rosenthal has heard that the Braves are getting tired of waiting, at that yesterday, the Padres discussed just keeping Peavy for themselves. He mentioned the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees as still in the running.

Brian McTaggart at the Houston Chronicle has reported that the Astros see themselves as out of the running, because the Padres' price was so high.

Now for the new stuff:

 

Chris de Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times expects a Peavy deal "within the next week" with the pitcher being sent to the Braves, Cubs, or Dodgers: "Those teams are the finalists and, sources say, no other teams will be considered at this point." Not very surprisingly, the three remaining teams are all in the National League.

David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a long, detailed post on the prospect package the Braves are putting together to try and acquire Peavy. In the long, detailed post he also quotes verbatim a long, detailed email from Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, clarifying his comments about Yunel Escobar.

There will be more to come, no doubt.

 

[David]

Towers was just on with Levine and basicly said he would give Hendry the leg up becasue of their relationship. This is what Hendry brings to the table, alot of baseball people like him.

 

No offense to Dallas, but did anyone else hear this?

 

I find it rather hard to believe that Towers would say that.

 

He definitely said it.

 

Thanks, David. That's some wild stuff.

 

I think it was more of a "if there's a tie, the leg up would go to Jim."

 

He was talking up their relationship and how he trusts Jim Hendry and that it's not like that with all other GMs.

 

Said Peavy likes playing in Chicago and likes the idea of playing for the Cubs and that he's sure that guys like Grace and Sutcliffe (who Axelrod also represented) have talked up the Cubs to him and that some of the Cubs players have probably lobbied him too.

 

Also said he's got a close relationship with Axelrod (Axelrod represented him when he was a player) and that the process is going very smoothly because of that.

 

 

Said that any deal he makes involving Peavy is going to be perceived negatively, so he's not worried about that. Just wants to get what he thinks is a fair package.

[Mephistopheles]

i just want this to end. towers just make the deal already. dont play with my emotions. you know that peavys my favorite noncub

[RammyFanny]

Another reason i'd try and resign Dempster with Peavy (hopefully) is because without Demp, did we really improve all that much? Obviously, Peavy figures to be better than Dempster for the upcoming year, but I doubt even Peavy would reproduce what Dempster did last season. The upgrade from Dempster to Marquis would be what really improves the team.

[17 Seconds]

Another reason i'd try and resign Dempster with Peavy (hopefully) is because without Demp, did we really improve all that much? Obviously, Peavy figures to be better than Dempster for the upcoming year, but I doubt even Peavy would reproduce what Dempster did last season. The upgrade from Dempster to Marquis would be what really improves the team.

 

The problem is that Dempster is very unlikely to duplicate his 2008, so Peavy would be necessary just to match what we got out of Demp last year.

 

And you're missing the key point..which is that we wouldn't be able to re-sign Wood if we had Peavy and Dempster, not to mention any other free agents.

 

So 2009 Peavy might not make us that much better than a 2008 Dempster would, but the loss of Wood make our bullpen significantly worse. If we lose Wood then our bullpen could be in serious trouble. I'd rather have a really good rotation and a good bullpen than a mega rotation with a crappy pen.

 

Bottom line is that Dempster would not be even remotely necessary.... Wood would. Plus it's very possible that Dempster isn't even much of an upgrade over Marquis next season. I'm not counting on Dempster.

[italianocubsfan7]

I think the Peavy talks will heat up either tomorrow or Monday morning.

[17 Seconds]

I think the Peavy talks will heat up either tomorrow or Monday morning.

 

I was thinking the same thing. It's kind of weird that there hasn't really been anything new reported in the past 2 days.