Week 2: Bears at Panthers - 12 noon CT, FOX

[biittner77]

A couple things about the NFL that have to be taken into account. First, the difference between going 10-6 and 6-10 is 4 plays. With the right breaks all but the worst teams have a chance to win 10 games.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that as little as 1 player can make a huge difference. If Harris is truly healthy, he will either get prssure up the middle or require a double team, thus freeing up Brown etal to get pressure from the outside.

[jersey cubs fan]

A couple things about the NFL that have to be taken into account. First, the difference between going 10-6 and 6-10 is 4 plays. With the right breaks all but the worst teams have a chance to win 10 games. .

 

I think you are really overstating it there. There are plenty of teams every year that don't have a legit shot for 10 wins.

[rawaction]

Is Mike Brown really that bad of a loss this year? Payne and McGowan have gained valuable experience at safety. Steltz looks to be a pretty decent project that won't kill the team if he's in there. Danieal can play some FS. It's a lot different from last year when you had Archuleta who was horrible, DManning who was learning to play CB, and McGowan who had little experience to that point of hte season. They did fine in 06 without both Brown and Harris, though I wouldn't expect that again, in the case of Tommie.

 

I thought Payne looked pretty lost at times on Sunday. That's definitely the weak link of the defense. It's possible to survive the loss of Brown, if he's the only loss. But what I'm worried about is multiple injuries. Brown + just about anybody else could be a disaster, or at the very least, weaken them to the point where they are just barely above average defense. This team still needs a dominant D to go anywhere.

 

Yeah, Payne was MIA on the Colts lone TD drive. McGowan was out there with him and wasn't any better either. That will happen from time to time, especially if they play WRs of the Colts caliber again.

[Banedon]

Yeah, Payne was MIA on the Colts lone TD drive. McGowan was out there with him and wasn't any better either. That will happen from time to time, especially if they play WRs of the Colts caliber again.

 

Not to mention that that drive was on a really short field thanks to Hester's endzone shenanigans.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yeah, Payne was MIA on the Colts lone TD drive. McGowan was out there with him and wasn't any better either. That will happen from time to time, especially if they play WRs of the Colts caliber again.

 

Not to mention that that drive was on a really short field thanks to Hester's endzone shenanigans.

 

Hester can drive me nuts when he does that crap. but then, boom, 82 yrds and a TD and all is forgiven.

[biittner77]

A couple things about the NFL that have to be taken into account. First, the difference between going 10-6 and 6-10 is 4 plays. With the right breaks all but the worst teams have a chance to win 10 games. .

 

I think you are really overstating it there. There are plenty of teams every year that don't have a legit shot for 10 wins.

 

Every year there's at least 1 team that comes of out nowhere and does well. Think of last years Lions team. They were not very good but they almost made it to 10 wins. The Ravens 2 years ago ( I think) were the same way.

[jersey cubs fan]

A couple things about the NFL that have to be taken into account. First, the difference between going 10-6 and 6-10 is 4 plays. With the right breaks all but the worst teams have a chance to win 10 games. .

 

I think you are really overstating it there. There are plenty of teams every year that don't have a legit shot for 10 wins.

 

Every year there's at least 1 team that comes of out nowhere and does well. Think of last years Lions team. They were not very good but they almost made it to 10 wins. The Ravens 2 years ago ( I think) were the same way.

 

Yes, there's one team that comes out of nowhere, that doesn't mean everybody is a couple breaks from 10 wins. Detroit was so close to 10 they got 7, and they were lucky to get there.

[biittner77]

Last year Cleveland went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Tenn went 10-6 after 8-8 in 06. In 2006 the Jets went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Also in 2006 the Saints went 10-6 after going 3-13 in 05. In 05 the Redskins won 10 games after going 6-10 the year before. same goes for the 04 Jets.

 

The point is that teams that seemingly have no business winning 10 games- the 06 Saints being the most glaring example- still have a chance of winning 10 games. The odds of them winning 9 games is even better.

[jersey cubs fan]

Last year Cleveland went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Tenn went 10-6 after 8-8 in 06. In 2006 the Jets went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Also in 2006 the Saints went 10-6 after going 3-13 in 05. In 05 the Redskins won 10 games after going 6-10 the year before. same goes for the 04 Jets.

 

The point is that teams that seemingly have no business winning 10 games- the 06 Saints being the most glaring example- still have a chance of winning 10 games. The odds of them winning 9 games is even better.

 

Yeah, and so what. You were still overstating the notion that all that stands between 6 wins and 10 is 4 plays. Teams come out of nowhere, but there's usually a reason. Detroit didn't win 10 last year. Cleveland got a tremendous upgrade in offensive line play and solid quarterbacking. They didn't luck themselves into 4 plays for that improvement. Tennessee winning 2 more games than the year before proves absolutely nothing. You are insinuating that 10 wins is just a few lucky breaks away. It's not nearly that simple.

[Banedon]

Power Rankings Watch:

 

 

ESPN - Last week 25, this week 15

Sportsline - Last week 24, this week 8.

 

CNNSi and Fox Sports haven't published theirs yet.

[UMFan83]

Surprised the 2001 Bears weren't mentioned yet. They went from 5-11 to 13-3 to 4-12 in a span of 3 years

[biittner77]

I was thinking that the Lions went 9-7. I should have looked that up first. But if you look at the number of 8-8 and 7-9 teams it's not hard to imagine that they were a couple breaks away from 10 wins. The point is that there are a lot of NFL teams bunched in the middle. Unless they win convincingly or lose badly the outcome turns on 1-2 plays.

 

Of course something happens to turn a 4-12 into 10-6. The fact that it happens ever year shows that if you eliminate the really bad teams and the really good teams, most everyone else finishes somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

[Soul]

I was thinking that the Lions went 9-7. I should have looked that up first. But if you look at the number of 8-8 and 7-9 teams it's not hard to imagine that they were a couple breaks away from 10 wins. The point is that there are a lot of NFL teams bunched in the middle. Unless they win convincingly or lose badly the outcome turns on 1-2 plays.

 

Of course something happens to turn a 4-12 into 10-6. The fact that it happens ever year shows that if you eliminate the really bad teams and the really good teams, most everyone else finishes somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

 

It's a league of parity, yeah.

[jersey cubs fan]

I was thinking that the Lions went 9-7. I should have looked that up first. But if you look at the number of 8-8 and 7-9 teams it's not hard to imagine that they were a couple breaks away from 10 wins. The point is that there are a lot of NFL teams bunched in the middle. Unless they win convincingly or lose badly the outcome turns on 1-2 plays.

 

Of course something happens to turn a 4-12 into 10-6. The fact that it happens ever year shows that if you eliminate the really bad teams and the really good teams, most everyone else finishes somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

 

I think 7-9 and 9-7 teams are all very similar. There are some 7 win teams on the way up and some 9 win teams on the way down. But there's a fairly signficant difference between 6 and 10 wins. It's not just chance.

[Soul]

I was thinking that the Lions went 9-7. I should have looked that up first. But if you look at the number of 8-8 and 7-9 teams it's not hard to imagine that they were a couple breaks away from 10 wins. The point is that there are a lot of NFL teams bunched in the middle. Unless they win convincingly or lose badly the outcome turns on 1-2 plays.

 

Of course something happens to turn a 4-12 into 10-6. The fact that it happens ever year shows that if you eliminate the really bad teams and the really good teams, most everyone else finishes somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

 

I think 7-9 and 9-7 teams are all very similar. There are some 7 win teams on the way up and some 9 win teams on the way down. But there's a fairly signficant difference between 6 and 10 wins. It's not just chance.

Well, but the chance could be a very easy schedule...

[bukie]

Power Rankings Watch:

 

 

ESPN - Last week 25, this week 15

Sportsline - Last week 24, this week 8.

 

CNNSi and Fox Sports haven't published theirs yet.

 

DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders. Certainly little meaning after one week (Atlanta is #2), but surprisingly the weakest aspect of the Bears statistically right now is the defense. Adjusted for early variation (DAVE), the Bears are ranked 18th.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Power Rankings Watch:

 

 

ESPN - Last week 25, this week 15

Sportsline - Last week 24, this week 8.

 

CNNSi and Fox Sports haven't published theirs yet.

 

DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders. Certainly little meaning after one week (Atlanta is #2), but surprisingly the weakest aspect of the Bears statistically right now is the defense. Adjusted for early variation (DAVE), the Bears are ranked 18th.

 

 

how the hell do you read that?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I was thinking that the Lions went 9-7. I should have looked that up first. But if you look at the number of 8-8 and 7-9 teams it's not hard to imagine that they were a couple breaks away from 10 wins. The point is that there are a lot of NFL teams bunched in the middle. Unless they win convincingly or lose badly the outcome turns on 1-2 plays.

 

Of course something happens to turn a 4-12 into 10-6. The fact that it happens ever year shows that if you eliminate the really bad teams and the really good teams, most everyone else finishes somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

 

Ding. That was not a good football team in any way, shape, or form, but they managed to luck out 13 games.

 

It's not *likely* to turn a 6-win team into a 10-win team on luck, but it's certainly possible.

[bukie]

Power Rankings Watch:

 

 

ESPN - Last week 25, this week 15

Sportsline - Last week 24, this week 8.

 

CNNSi and Fox Sports haven't published theirs yet.

 

DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders. Certainly little meaning after one week (Atlanta is #2), but surprisingly the weakest aspect of the Bears statistically right now is the defense. Adjusted for early variation (DAVE), the Bears are ranked 18th.

 

 

how the hell do you read that?

 

Simplified:

 

Based on raw data from one week, overall (VOA - positive is above average, negative is below average):

1	PHI	110.10%
2	ATL	81.50%
3	DEN	81.00%
4	DAL	72.80%
5	BUF	71.00%
6	BAL	69.60%
7	PIT	59.00%
8	NE	40.80%
9	NYG	32.30%
10	ARI	31.00%
11	GB	29.10%
12	CHI	16.40%
13	SD	13.00%
14	NYJ	12.20%
15	TEN	10.30%
16	NO	8.40%
17	CAR	-0.10%
18	TB	-8.20%
19	IND	-15.30%
20	JAC	-22.30%
21	SF	-24.40%
22	MIN	-29.70%
23	MIA	-32.80%
24	WAS	-33.20%
25	KC	-37.20%
26	HOU	-59.60%
27	CIN	-71.00%
28	CLE	-73.80%
29	SEA	-74.80%
30	OAK	-76.70%
31	DET	-78.40%
32	STL	-101.70%

 

Factoring in statistical projections from the preseason (DAVE - still positive above average, negative below average):

1	PHI	41.00%
2	GB	35.80%
3	NE	25.90%
4	SD	25.10%
5	MIN	18.20%
6	DAL	17.70%
7	TB	17.10%
8	IND	15.90%
9	PIT	11.80%
10	DEN	10.80%
11	BAL	9.80%
12	NYG	8.80%
13	JAC	7.10%
14	SEA	6.50%
15	CAR	3.90%
16	ARI	2.00%
17	NO	1.60%
18	CHI	-0.30%
19	TEN	-1.30%
20	NYJ	-3.30%
21	BUF	-6.10%
22	HOU	-8.50%
23	CIN	-8.90%
24	WAS	-11.70%
25	KC	-18.80%
26	CLE	-19.30%
27	MIA	-22.40%
28	DET	-27.40%
29	SF	-27.50%
30	ATL	-28.40%
31	OAK	-29.00%
32	STL	-34.80%

[biittner77]

So what's the difference between a 7-9 and a 6-10 team? If the Bears split with GB they would have been 6-10. Conversely, they played 4 games they lost by a single score including 2 OT games. Had they won the 2 OT games and held on to beat the Giants they would have been a 10-6 playoff team.

 

Finally, the ability to make those 4 plays is not chance, at least not always.

[UMFan83]

So what's the difference between a 7-9 and a 6-10 team? If the Bears split with GB they would have been 6-10. Conversely, they played 4 games they lost by a single score including 2 OT games. Had they won the 2 OT games and held on to beat the Giants they would have been a 10-6 playoff team.

 

Finally, the ability to make those 4 plays is not chance, at least not always.

 

The Bears didn't play any OT games last year I don't think

[bukie]

And just for posterity, I think 18th is about right for them at this point.

[UMFan83]

And just for posterity, I think 18th is about right for them at this point.

 

I think its fair. I don't think they should be as high as 8th, but something like 13th or 14th would be most realistic.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Power Rankings Watch:

 

 

ESPN - Last week 25, this week 15

Sportsline - Last week 24, this week 8.

 

CNNSi and Fox Sports haven't published theirs yet.

 

DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders. Certainly little meaning after one week (Atlanta is #2), but surprisingly the weakest aspect of the Bears statistically right now is the defense. Adjusted for early variation (DAVE), the Bears are ranked 18th.

 

 

how the hell do you read that?

 

Simplified:

 

Based on raw data from one week, overall (VOA - positive is above average, negative is below average):

1	PHI	110.10%
2	ATL	81.50%
3	DEN	81.00%
4	DAL	72.80%
5	BUF	71.00%
6	BAL	69.60%
7	PIT	59.00%
8	NE	40.80%
9	NYG	32.30%
10	ARI	31.00%
11	GB	29.10%
12	CHI	16.40%
13	SD	13.00%
14	NYJ	12.20%
15	TEN	10.30%
16	NO	8.40%
17	CAR	-0.10%
18	TB	-8.20%
19	IND	-15.30%
20	JAC	-22.30%
21	SF	-24.40%
22	MIN	-29.70%
23	MIA	-32.80%
24	WAS	-33.20%
25	KC	-37.20%
26	HOU	-59.60%
27	CIN	-71.00%
28	CLE	-73.80%
29	SEA	-74.80%
30	OAK	-76.70%
31	DET	-78.40%
32	STL	-101.70%

 

Factoring in statistical projections from the preseason (DAVE - still positive above average, negative below average):

1	PHI	41.00%
2	GB	35.80%
3	NE	25.90%
4	SD	25.10%
5	MIN	18.20%
6	DAL	17.70%
7	TB	17.10%
8	IND	15.90%
9	PIT	11.80%
10	DEN	10.80%
11	BAL	9.80%
12	NYG	8.80%
13	JAC	7.10%
14	SEA	6.50%
15	CAR	3.90%
16	ARI	2.00%
17	NO	1.60%
18	CHI	-0.30%
19	TEN	-1.30%
20	NYJ	-3.30%
21	BUF	-6.10%
22	HOU	-8.50%
23	CIN	-8.90%
24	WAS	-11.70%
25	KC	-18.80%
26	CLE	-19.30%
27	MIA	-22.40%
28	DET	-27.40%
29	SF	-27.50%
30	ATL	-28.40%
31	OAK	-29.00%
32	STL	-34.80%

 

wouldnt it be wildly inaccurate to base it on preseason?

[Handlebar McSkullet]

So what's the difference between a 7-9 and a 6-10 team? If the Bears split with GB they would have been 6-10. Conversely, they played 4 games they lost by a single score including 2 OT games. Had they won the 2 OT games and held on to beat the Giants they would have been a 10-6 playoff team.

 

Finally, the ability to make those 4 plays is not chance, at least not always.

 

The Bears didn't play any OT games last year I don't think

 

the awesome denver game