40 Games to Play

[FergieJ31]

I think your missing the point though. Any combination of 24 Cubs wins and/or 2nd place in WC teams losses = Cubs clinch playoffs. If the Phillies pass the Cardinals (and I will point out the Cardinals are still playing good baseball and just got Wainright back), they will assume the role as 2nd place in WC and will assume the role of lowering the Cubs magic number with each loss.

 

Of course, I didn't contest this - I said 24 is accurate. I only pointed out there's a difference between:

 

Scenario A: magic number = 24 to eliminate a particular team (Cards) and

Scenario B: 24 to eliminate the unknown 2nd place WC team.

 

biittner77 nicely summarized the difference in his post.

 

If we look at magic number as roughly the expected number of days to clinch, then the difference manifests itself.

 

Imagine simulating the rest of the season a million times, like BP does, and take the average playoff clinch date of those simulations where the Cubs make the playoffs. The average clinch date of Scenario B would be later than Scenario A (probably by a day or so in the current case of the Cards & Phils contending).

[Fred Hornkohl]

They topped out at 32 games during both the 1984 and 1969 seasons.

I'm not superstitious, but I'd prefer that they get above 32 games or at 30 or 31 games above 500.

 

I was less than one year old in 69, but I remember 1984. Those 2 didn't end so well.

 

It can't happen again. My heart can't take it this time. I was younger in '84, able to recover. Now? Wounds like that might take me out.

 

Oh ?? :shock:

Is that loss to the '35 Tigers still fresh in your memory?

 

Well, yeah.... that one hurt too. We won 100 games that year !!

[Derwood]

Cubs' record with 30 games to go:

 

2008: 82-50

2007: 68-64

2003: 68-64

1998: 71-61

1989: 75-57

1984: 79-53

[Rob]

Cubs' record with 30 games to go:

 

2008: 82-50

2007: 68-64

2003: 68-64

1998: 71-61

1989: 75-57

1984: 79-53

 

Nice.

 

I am starting to like this team a bit.

[Sorianos hop]

Cubs' record with 30 games to go:

 

2008: 82-50

2007: 68-64

2003: 68-64

1998: 71-61

1989: 75-57

1984: 79-53

Wow.

[David]

It sucks that this season has to end. It would be so crappy if this didn't end the way we want it to, and there's a better than decent chance of that happening.

[Fro]

Between 33 and 42 over you have to go back to '45,

 

We made it... 33 over now \:D/ .

[Jehrico]

23-6 over the last month, with just over a month to go...

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's the schedule the rest of the way..... (I'm totally guessing on the St Louis starters)

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
134  Thu 08/28    Philadelphia  N    -    Dempster        Hamels        
135  Fri 08/29    Philadelphia       -    Harden          Blanton       
136  Sat 08/30    Philadelphia       -    Lilly           Myers         
137  Sun 08/31    Philadelphia       -    Zambrano        Moyer         
138  Mon 09/01    Houston            -    Marquis         Oswalt        
139  Tue 09/02    Houston       N    -    Dempster        Backe         
140  Wed 09/03    Houston       N    -    Harden          Wolf          
141  Fri 09/05  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Lilly           Cueto         
142  Sat 09/06  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Arroyo        
143  Sun 09/07  @ Cincinnati         -    Marquis         Fogg          
144  Tue 09/09  @ St. Louis     N    -    Dempster        Wainright     
145  Wed 09/10  @ St. Louis     N    -    Harden          Lohse         
146  Thu 09/11  @ St. Louis     N    -    Lilly           Looper        
147  Fri 09/12  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano        Oswalt        
148  Sat 09/13  @ Houston       N    -    Marquis         Backe         
149  Sun 09/14  @ Houston            -    Dempster        Wolf          
150  Tue 09/16    Milwaukee     N    -    Harden          Sabathia      
151  Wed 09/17    Milwaukee     N    -    Lilly           Sheets        
152  Thu 09/18    Milwaukee          -    Zambrano        Parra         
153  Fri 09/19    St. Louis          -    Marquis         Wainright     
154  Sat 09/20    St. Louis          -    Dempster        Lohse         
155  Sun 09/21    St. Louis          -    Harden          Looper        
156  Mon 09/22  @ New York      N    -    Lilly           Perez         
157  Tue 09/23  @ New York      N    -    Zambrano        Pelfrey       
158  Wed 09/24  @ New York      N    -    Marquis         Martinezs     
159  Thu 09/25  @ New York      N    -    Dempster        Santana       
160  Fri 09/26  @ Milwaukee     N    -    Harden          Suppan        
161  Sat 09/27  @ Milwaukee          -    Lilly           Sabathia      
162  Sun 09/28  @ Milwaukee          -    Zambrano        Sheets        

 

..... and my fearless prediction for 100 wins !! ...........

 

                                 remaining     expected      projected
Opponent          record     pct     games       (W/L)          totals

Cincinnati          7- 5   0.583         3     1.7- 1.3       8.7- 6.3
Houston             6- 6   0.500         6     3.0- 3.0       9.0- 9.0
Milwaukee           6- 4   0.600         6     3.6- 2.4       9.6- 6.4
Pittsburgh         14- 4   0.778                             14.0- 4.0
St. Louis           5- 4   0.556         6     3.3- 2.7       8.3- 6.7
Atlanta             6- 0   1.000                              6.0- 0.0
Florida             4- 3   0.571                              4.0- 3.0
Washington          3- 3   0.500                              3.0- 3.0
NY Mets             2- 0   1.000         4     4.0- 0.0       6.0- 0.0
Philadelphia        1- 2   0.333         4     1.3- 2.7       2.3- 4.7
Arizona             4- 2   0.667                              4.0- 2.0
Colorado            5- 1   0.833                              5.0- 1.0
Los Angeles         5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Diego           5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Francisco       4- 3   0.571                              4.0- 3.0
white sox           3- 3   0.500                              3.0- 3.0
Baltimore           1- 2   0.333                              1.0- 2.0
Tampa Bay           0- 3   0.000                              0.0- 3.0
Toronto             2- 1   0.667                              2.0- 1.0


totals             83-50   0.624        29    16.9-12.1      99.9-62.1

[otis89]

Both teams are still on schedule for a Harden/Sabathia match-up on September 16? Nice.

[CubsBears29]

Ok, so because I'm really bored and a complete nerd sometimes... here's a long post about our final record/playoff possibilities. [Cubs are 83-50, MIL is 77-56 (6.0 GB), StL is 74-60 (9.5 GB), & PHI is 73-60 (10 GB).]

 

We have 29 games remaining [13H / 16A]. If you calculate it out using the winning percentages for the games, both H & A, the Cubs will finish 17-12 [9-4 H / 8-8 A], & 100-62 overall. I could see 8-8 on the road - if not 9-7 or 10-6, too (depending on when we clinch the Central/HFA) - but I'd maybe change the home finish to 8-5; that gives us leeway to split the 4 vs PHI, and win the series (2-1) vs all of HOU/StL/MIL. If we win 3 of 4 vs PHI, I will think about guaranteeing 9-4 and maybe even 10-3, if can sweep the Carlos Lee-less Astros, which follows the PHI series.

 

We'll start at the bad end of the spectrum and work our way up;

 

- If Cubs go 13-16, finish 96-66, MIL would have to go 20-9 to win the Central / StL would have to go 23-5 & PHI 24-5 to keep us out of the playoffs

 

- If Cubs go 14-15, finish 97-65, MIL would have to go 21-8 to win the Central / StL would have to go 24-4 & PHI 25-4 to keep us out of the playoffs

 

- If Cubs go 15-14, finish 98-64, MIL would have to go 22-7 to win the Central / StL would have to go 25-3 & PHI 26-3 to keep us out of the playoffs

 

- If Cubs go 16-13, finish 99-63, MIL would have to go 23-6 to win the Central / StL would have to go 26-2 & PHI 27-2 to keep us out of the playoffs

 

- If Cubs go 17-12, finish 100-62, MIL would have to go 24-5 to win the Central / StL would have to go 27-1 & PHI 28-1 to keep us out of the playoffs

 

- If Cubs go 18-11, finish 101-61, MIL would have to go 25-4 to win the Central / StL would have to go 28-0 & PHI 29-0 to keep us out of the playoffs and PHI

 

- If Cubs go 19-10, finish 102-60, MIL would have to go 26-3 to win the Central and Cubs would win the Wild Card. regardless if Brewers did go on an amazing .897+ run to finish this season

 

 

Basically if we can keep the pedal to the medal and finish 19-10, or better, we are 1000% guaranteed at least the Wild Card playoff spot.

Edited August 28, 2008 by CubsBears29

[manbearcub]

Basically if we can keep the pedal to the medal and finish 19-10, or better, we are 1000% guaranteed at least the Wild Card playoff spot.

 

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/33/43648697_7a22cdf45b_m.jpg + http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1286/1393574084_b0c4460507_m.jpg = playoffs?

[rocket]

so the magic number to clinch a playoff spot is only 19?

[Guest]

so the magic number to clinch a playoff spot is only 19?

 

20.

[David]

Should be fun when we get to the head to head games and can knock two games off at once.

[Bull]

29 games remaining X .624 winning percentage = 18.096

 

They're on pace for 101 wins. Thats not including their pythag. or the fact that they are hotter now than that .624.

 

Wow. Just wow. Is this the best Cubs team of my life time? Ever?

 

Our crappy 5th starter that we all hate has a 99ERA+

Edited August 28, 2008 by Bull

[C.C.]

29 games remaining X .624 winning percentage = 18.096

 

They're on pace for 101 wins. Thats not including their pythag. or the fact that they are hotter now than that .624.

 

Wow. Just wow. Is this the best Cubs team of my life time? Ever?

 

 

No need for question marks.

[MPrior]

29 games remaining X .624 winning percentage = 18.096

 

They're on pace for 101 wins. Thats not including their pythag. or the fact that they are hotter now than that .624.

 

Wow. Just wow. Is this the best Cubs team of my life time? Ever?

 

 

No need for question marks.

 

I'm pretty sure this isn't the best Cubs team ever. 1906, even though they didn't win the World Series, was maybe the best team in baseball history. At least by winning percentage.

 

Which is not to say that this team isn't totally badass.

[champaignchris]

Basically if we can keep the pedal to the medal and finish 19-10, or better, we are 1000% guaranteed at least the Wild Card playoff spot.

 

I think 11 wins will get us a playoff spot and 15 will clinch the division.

 

While it's certainly not clinched yet, and really strange things have happened in baseball (last year w/ Mets and Rockies, 2004 w/ Cubs and Astros as just two recent examples), it would require both a historical collapse on the Cubs part and a historical run by at least two teams to keep the Cubs out of the playoffs.

[chuckywang]

Hey Cubs. Do well so we can clinch at home.

[Mizzou]

Please clinch on September 21st.

[CubsBears29]

Updated standing/playoffs numbers after tonight's AWESOME comeback win;

 

NL Central:

CUBS 84-50 --

MIL 77-56 6.5

StL 74-60 10.0

 

NL Wild Card

MIL 77-56 --

StL 74-60 3.5

[NYM 74-60 3.5]

PHI 73-61 4.5

 

28 games remaining for Cubs, Cards, [Mets], & Phils. 29 for Brewers.

 

- Cubs go 13-15 (97-65), MIL needs to finish 21-8 to win Central - StL 24-4 / PHI 25-3 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 14-14 (98-64), MIL needs 22-7 finish for Central - StL 25-3 / PHI 26-2 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 15-13 (99-63), MIL needs 23-6 finish for Central - StL 26-2 / PHI 27-1 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 16-12 (100-62), MIL needs 24-5 finish for Central - StL 27-1 / PHI 28-0 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 17-11 (101-61), MIL needs 25-4 finish for Central - StL 28-0 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 18-10 (102-60), MIL needs 26-3 finish for Central - Cubs win WC from here on, if unthinkable .897 Brewers winning % occurs from starting tomorrow through September

 

 

Cubs just need to finish .500 rest of the way, and they should be golden for winning the division and NL HFA.

[UMFan83]

Updated standing/playoffs numbers after tonight's AWESOME comeback win;

 

NL Central:

CUBS 84-50 --

MIL 77-56 6.5

StL 74-60 10.0

 

NL Wild Card

MIL 77-56 --

StL 74-60 3.5

[NYM 74-60 3.5]

PHI 73-61 4.5

 

28 games remaining for Cubs, Cards, [Mets], & Phils. 29 for Brewers.

 

- Cubs go 13-15 (97-65), MIL needs to finish 21-8 to win Central - StL 24-4 / PHI 25-3 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 14-14 (98-64), MIL needs 22-7 finish for Central - StL 25-3 / PHI 26-2 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 15-13 (99-63), MIL needs 23-6 finish for Central - StL 26-2 / PHI 27-1 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 16-12 (100-62), MIL needs 24-5 finish for Central - StL 27-1 / PHI 28-0 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 17-11 (101-61), MIL needs 25-4 finish for Central - StL 28-0 to keep Cubs home

- Cubs go 18-10 (102-60), MIL needs 26-3 finish for Central - Cubs win WC from here on, if unthinkable .897 Brewers winning % occurs from starting tomorrow through September

 

 

Cubs just need to finish .500 rest of the way, and they should be golden for winning the division and NL HFA.

 

Gah, how boring is the next month going to be? LOL

[Rob]

Just as an added tidbit of information... the Brewers finished 2nd in the NL Central last year with 83 wins. It's only August, and we've already won enough games that we would have clinched last season.

[CubmanPi]

Gah, how boring is the next month going to be? LOL

I'm all about a boring September 8-)