Cubs Talking About Greene?

[Kid Gleason]

There's no way to say for sure, but I what sort of effect Gene Clynes have on a guy like Greene. Based on what he has done for the plate patience of some of the other players it would be good to see the Cubs buy low and and acquire Greene and see what they can do with him. It would be a nice insurance policy as has been said.

[javy knows my name]

Honestly, the lack of OBP is a huge concern. We all know Petco is the best pitchers park but I don't see how it makes a guy less patient or a pitcher throw more strikes. Greene isn't doing any better on the road, and that really shouldn't shock anyone, because patience works everywhere, regardless of how far the fence is from home plate, and impatience makes you an easier out. A strikeout is the same anywhere.

 

I remember a lot of speculation about how much better Alex Gonzalez would be coming over from Toronto, another good pitchers park. He was an impatient hitter, great glove, too. People speculated he'd hit 25-30 HR at Wrigley and be an .800 OPS guy. He proceeded to put up two unspectacular years with an OBPs of .312 and .295, with OPS of .737 and .704, hitting 20 and 18 HR. If you consider that OBP is the more important component of OPS, then it makes his offense look that much worse. I think we've been down this road before and we ought to know where it leads.

Refer to Raw's post about IsoP. Greene's OBP sucks because his AVG sucks and his AVG sucks because he's a flyball hitter in Petco.

[Butterscup1679666578]

There's no way to say for sure, but I what sort of effect Gene Clynes have on a guy like Greene. Based on what he has done for the plate patience of some of the other players it would be good to see the Cubs buy low and and acquire Greene and see what they can do with him. It would be a nice insurance policy as has been said.

 

Haha, Gene Clines? Is this 2006?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd offer Cedeno and another prospect for Greene. It would be nice if we could pawn Marquis off in the deal as well. Cedeno + Marquis + Atkins or something along those lines for him.

[Balsa]

So, basically, he's a more defensively talented Juan Uribe?

[imb]

There's no way to say for sure, but I what sort of effect Gene Clynes have on a guy like Greene. Based on what he has done for the plate patience of some of the other players it would be good to see the Cubs buy low and and acquire Greene and see what they can do with him. It would be a nice insurance policy as has been said.

 

Haha, Gene Clines? Is this 2006?

 

I can't wait to see Zim get his hands on him!

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Clynes had done a helluva job this hear..a helluva job.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There's no way to say for sure, but I what sort of effect Gene Clynes have on a guy like Greene. Based on what he has done for the plate patience of some of the other players it would be good to see the Cubs buy low and and acquire Greene and see what they can do with him. It would be a nice insurance policy as has been said.

hummina, hummina, say wha?

[Amazing_Grace]

Honestly, the lack of OBP is a huge concern. We all know Petco is the best pitchers park but I don't see how it makes a guy less patient or a pitcher throw more strikes. Greene isn't doing any better on the road, and that really shouldn't shock anyone, because patience works everywhere, regardless of how far the fence is from home plate, and impatience makes you an easier out. A strikeout is the same anywhere.

 

I remember a lot of speculation about how much better Alex Gonzalez would be coming over from Toronto, another good pitchers park. He was an impatient hitter, great glove, too. People speculated he'd hit 25-30 HR at Wrigley and be an .800 OPS guy. He proceeded to put up two unspectacular years with an OBPs of .312 and .295, with OPS of .737 and .704, hitting 20 and 18 HR. If you consider that OBP is the more important component of OPS, then it makes his offense look that much worse. I think we've been down this road before and we ought to know where it leads.

Refer to Raw's post about IsoP. Greene's OBP sucks because his AVG sucks and his AVG sucks because he's a flyball hitter in Petco.

 

He's had some good and bad years in terms of IsoD. The case can be made that Greene should be a better hitter for another team. The case can also be made that he is what he is, a guy who will hit for above average power but struggle to keep his OBP above .320.

[Post Count Padder]

Not sure how I feel about this. Greene's been pretty bad this year.

[sneakypower]

People love Greene because he's a victim of PetCo park. For his career, he has a line of .271/.321/.487 for an OPS of .808 away from SD. At home, his line is .226/.289/.368 for an OPS of .657. Getting out of SD would be great for him.

 

That being said, I'd only want him now if we could get him for almost nothing. I'm talking a low-level prospect and maybe Cedeno or something. And I'd only want him because he could give us some RH pop off the bench and could give Theriot some time off. I fear Theriot wearing out again like last year.

i hate to beat a dead horse, but i really don't know why people persist with this fallacious nonsense. find me any statistician/sabermetrician who is willing to reconcile just simply throwing half of your sample in the trash.

 

and if we're just not concerned with sample sizes, well then hell he's showing to have a 528 ops true talent level at this point in his career.

[USSoccer]

Greene isn't cheap anymore, is he?

 

I dunno...I really doubt Theriot is going to play at this level all year long. That said, Greene has been awful, but to be fair, his team sucks.

 

I can't think of a fair deal. Marquis/Fuld? I wouldn't want to give anything of value up for him. I'd much rather leverage any assets towards a pen arm like Fuentes.

 

As an aside, we went into this season with 2 offensive black holes; SS and CF. Is it a foregone conclusion that the bottom isn't going to fall out of the Jim Edmonds Experience? We only have 16 days until the deadline. That's not enough time for him to tank and for us to look, is it?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm pretty sure SD would want Cedeno in any deal for Greene. And that's probably ok since we couldn't option Ronny anyway.

 

Cedeno + Fuld + Marquis along with enough cash to even out the salaries between Marquis and Greene.

 

That's probably not going to get it done, but it might be worth offering.

[javy knows my name]

Honestly, the lack of OBP is a huge concern. We all know Petco is the best pitchers park but I don't see how it makes a guy less patient or a pitcher throw more strikes. Greene isn't doing any better on the road, and that really shouldn't shock anyone, because patience works everywhere, regardless of how far the fence is from home plate, and impatience makes you an easier out. A strikeout is the same anywhere.

 

I remember a lot of speculation about how much better Alex Gonzalez would be coming over from Toronto, another good pitchers park. He was an impatient hitter, great glove, too. People speculated he'd hit 25-30 HR at Wrigley and be an .800 OPS guy. He proceeded to put up two unspectacular years with an OBPs of .312 and .295, with OPS of .737 and .704, hitting 20 and 18 HR. If you consider that OBP is the more important component of OPS, then it makes his offense look that much worse. I think we've been down this road before and we ought to know where it leads.

Refer to Raw's post about IsoP. Greene's OBP sucks because his AVG sucks and his AVG sucks because he's a flyball hitter in Petco.

 

He's had some good and bad years in terms of IsoD. The case can be made that Greene should be a better hitter for another team. The case can also be made that he is what he is, a guy who will hit for above average power but struggle to keep his OBP above .320.

Ok, now I think we're on the same page. I'm not sure I want him as anything more than a backup. Might be better off with Cedeno if that's the case

[XZero771679666304]

People love Greene because he's a victim of PetCo park. For his career, he has a line of .271/.321/.487 for an OPS of .808 away from SD. At home, his line is .226/.289/.368 for an OPS of .657. Getting out of SD would be great for him.

 

That being said, I'd only want him now if we could get him for almost nothing. I'm talking a low-level prospect and maybe Cedeno or something. And I'd only want him because he could give us some RH pop off the bench and could give Theriot some time off. I fear Theriot wearing out again like last year.

i hate to beat a dead horse, but i really don't know why people persist with this fallacious nonsense. find me any statistician/sabermetrician who is willing to reconcile just simply throwing half of your sample in the trash.

 

and if we're just not concerned with sample sizes, well then hell he's showing to have a 528 ops true talent level at this point in his career.

 

Are you talking about dismissing the fact that Petco has drastically suppressed offensive numbers across the board (AVG, SLG, Runs, OPS, etc.) for both home and visiting teams for its entire existence? That we can ignore the fact that nearly every San Diego Padres hitter who has played in the park has had fairly extreme home/road splits favoring the road, and vice versa for their pitchers?

 

If so, that's fallacious nonsense. It would make things simpler if we could look at numbers independent of their context, but that would be a very myopic form of analysis.

 

No one is saying to throw his home numbers completely out, but you can very reasonably project a marked improvement in overall numbers for any San Diego Padres player who moves to a more hitter friendly park. And I could find you a truckload of sabremetrecians who would agree with that. It's like Coors reversed. You can go back and look at all the numbers, there isn't much room for selective interpretation.

 

If we are having this discussion in March, 100% of ML general managers swap Theriot in favor of Greene without hesitation, I promise you. His splits indicated he would benefit greatly from a change of scenery, and his numbers were trending upward right at the age you would project them to.

 

Having said all that, clearly whatever is ailing Khalil Greene this year goes way beyond park factor. No one could have reasonably predicted it, but it would definitely make me think more than twice at this point.

[XZero771679666304]

Honestly, the lack of OBP is a huge concern. We all know Petco is the best pitchers park but I don't see how it makes a guy less patient or a pitcher throw more strikes. Greene isn't doing any better on the road, and that really shouldn't shock anyone, because patience works everywhere, regardless of how far the fence is from home plate, and impatience makes you an easier out. A strikeout is the same anywhere.

 

I remember a lot of speculation about how much better Alex Gonzalez would be coming over from Toronto, another good pitchers park. He was an impatient hitter, great glove, too. People speculated he'd hit 25-30 HR at Wrigley and be an .800 OPS guy. He proceeded to put up two unspectacular years with an OBPs of .312 and .295, with OPS of .737 and .704, hitting 20 and 18 HR. If you consider that OBP is the more important component of OPS, then it makes his offense look that much worse. I think we've been down this road before and we ought to know where it leads.

Refer to Raw's post about IsoP. Greene's OBP sucks because his AVG sucks and his AVG sucks because he's a flyball hitter in Petco.

 

He's had some good and bad years in terms of IsoD. The case can be made that Greene should be a better hitter for another team. The case can also be made that he is what he is, a guy who will hit for above average power but struggle to keep his OBP above .320.

Ok, now I think we're on the same page. I'm not sure I want him as anything more than a backup. Might be better off with Cedeno if that's the case

 

But is a guy who OPS' .800 with a .310/.490 (a fair projection for Greene @ Wrigley prior to this year) worse than a Guy with a .765 with a .395/.370 (Theriot's approximate 2008 numbers) split? I guess it depends on how you prioritize.

 

I am concerned with Greene because his numbers are so far out of line with his career numbers, and he is having his worst season by far following his best. I'm really not sure what to make of it, but I am sure the reasons aren't encouraging. He could be hurt, he could be sick of San Diego and not giving 100% (which would tell me he has poor mental makeup) or he could have been figured out (unlikely after 4 seasons of fairly consistent production). I don't buy 1/2 a season of bad luck, and the guy's not old at all.

 

Who knows.

[NonProfitCow]

He really needs to get out of San Diego and the other giant parks in the NL West.

[Butterscup1679666578]

People love Greene because he's a victim of PetCo park. For his career, he has a line of .271/.321/.487 for an OPS of .808 away from SD. At home, his line is .226/.289/.368 for an OPS of .657. Getting out of SD would be great for him.

 

That being said, I'd only want him now if we could get him for almost nothing. I'm talking a low-level prospect and maybe Cedeno or something. And I'd only want him because he could give us some RH pop off the bench and could give Theriot some time off. I fear Theriot wearing out again like last year.

i hate to beat a dead horse, but i really don't know why people persist with this fallacious nonsense. find me any statistician/sabermetrician who is willing to reconcile just simply throwing half of your sample in the trash.

 

and if we're just not concerned with sample sizes, well then hell he's showing to have a 528 ops true talent level at this point in his career.

 

So wait, aren't you throwing the other half of his sample in the trash by this logic?

[haltz]

From 2004-2007, Greene put up away sOPS+'s of 136, 108, 128, and 123. That's about 1,100 plate appearances.

 

Anyway, you don't have to dismiss half the sample. He has a career .262 EqA and plays solid defense. That's a good shortstop even if there's nothing going on that a park adjustment doesn't account for.

[Jehrico]

If Greene, gets out of PETCO before next year, I bet that he at least equals Theriot offensively. Greene is no more likely to repeat his offensive atrocity of a season next year as Theriot is to repeat his breakout next year. If they both gravitate towards the norm next year, Greene's glove gives him a huge advantage. I like the idea of buying low on Greene, then selling high on Theriot. That wouldn't be a bad way to start getting some talent back in the farm system again.

[BigbadB]

From 2004-2007, Greene put up away sOPS+'s of 136, 108, 128, and 123. That's about 1,100 plate appearances.

 

Anyway, you don't have to dismiss half the sample. He has a career .262 EqA and plays solid defense. That's a good shortstop even if there's nothing going on that a park adjustment doesn't account for.

 

I don't remember who to apply the credit to, Meph or TT, but one of them provided a spray chart that showed a lot of Khalil Greene's fly balls at Petco to be home runs at Wrigley for the 2007 season. Obviously, each home run nullifies an out, which in turn improves his OBP, AVG and SLG. I'll take a quick look at his splits to see what visiting parks he's played in so far to see if a lot of them are more neutral than the one's he's yet to visit.

 

Only 17 games have been at what I would call hitter friendly parks (Jacobs, Wrigley, MinuteMaid, Chase, Citizen's Bank), and he didn't play all that well there, either.

 

There might be a little truth to a loss of intensity considering how horribly the Padres have been as a team this year. I'm not sure what to make of that, but the Cubs aren't playing poorly, so it probably wouldn't be a concern.

 

As bad as he's been, I still like what he offers defensively and in power. Last year, he had 7 HR's at NL Central ballparks (at least one at each park) in 20 games.

[WindyCity]

If the reported interest in Greene is true, I wonder if the Cubs would just be getting him to include as part of a deal with Toronto for Burnett. Otherwise, it would seem like he'd be a relatively expensive option for a backup SS.

[TheDude]

My first thought before opening the thread was that the Cubs might consider moving Theriot to 2B for Greene at SS, then bouncing DeRosa all around the diamond 4 days a week as people get days off. Not sure if I like the idea or not, but that was the first thing that came to mind when I saw the thread title.

[David]

Am I the only one that clicked the link in this thread and didn't get anything?

[WindyCity]

Am I the only one that clicked the link in this thread and didn't get anything?

 

No -- the blog entry was pulled for some reason.....