What will it take for Marquis to lose his rotation spot?

[Tarver]

According to Cots:

 

signed as a free agent 5/14/08 (Chicago pays pro-rated portion of $0.39M ML minimum - about $0.29M - with SD paying about $5.71M and St. Louis paying $2M)

[mul21]

The irrational hate for Marquis, in my opinion, stems from the fact that he's not a guy who will go 6 or 7 innings each time out and give up 3 or 4 runs for that 4.50 ERA. He's a guy who will go out and give you eight innings of one run ball today and then lay a total egg the next time and give up 6 in 4 innings.

 

It all ends up with him being his hovering around average self, but there are so many outliers from around the average that you never know which guy is going to show up and it makes the fans (and management I would imagine) a little crazy.

[Cubfanintheknow]

(In my best Forrest Gump voice)

 

Jason Marquis is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get.

 

(Back to normal now)

 

It's the reason why I'm not a fan of Marquis. It's probably the reason why he's not included on playoff rosters. If he'd consistently give up three runs over six innings, I could stomach him. But for every quality start (a very generous statistic for pitchers, IMHO), there's a complete disaster like yesterday.

 

I don't like complete disasters.

[twothousandfive]

The irrational hate for Marquis, in my opinion, stems from the fact that he's not a guy who will go 6 or 7 innings each time out and give up 3 or 4 runs for that 4.50 ERA. He's a guy who will go out and give you eight innings of one run ball today and then lay a total egg the next time and give up 6 in 4 innings.

 

It all ends up with him being his hovering around average self, but there are so many outliers from around the average that you never know which guy is going to show up and it makes the fans (and management I would imagine) a little crazy.

 

I agree that's the perception and also the reason for the intense opinions. I'd argue, though, that the data don't support the perception. (And even the perception doesn't even extend to Rich Hill. He's more at fault than Marquis for Marquis being in the rotation, but Hill is beloved.)

 

Marquis had not given up more than five runs in a game this year before yesterday. Through this week, he's now given up 7 in one game, five runs four times, four runs once, and three or less nine times (more often than his 4+ run games. And I'm ignoring earned runs, so it's possible one or two games might be off with a different method.) He's clearly the last guy in the rotation, and more than half the time he let's up fewer than three runs. I think it is tough to argue a typical fifth starter gives you any more than that.

 

As for the post-season, Piniella banished him last year. I don't remember if Marquis squawked about it, but given the thing this spring, Piniella knows what he's got with Marquis -- and he's not going to bank on him in a big game.

 

Which leads to two other things - 1) if Marquis could get these numbers AND pitch more innings, he'd be much more valuable. He can't, and that's a hidden frustration. In fact, I'm sure he's left with guys on base, and had they scored, the ERA would be higher. Since he's a "veteran" he ought to be held to higher standard in that regard.

 

2) It's pumpkin time for Jason Marquis. I've argued the hatred was misplace all season, but the argument of more than half the time with 3 runs or less wilts in the heat. June-thru-Oct last year, he gave up five or more nine times, 4 four times, and three or less 10 times (so it is still surprising how often he pitches well.) When he gives up a lot he leaves very early, so bad performances as it get hotter put the Cubs in a hole early and eat up the pen. And if he starts on a double-header it can get ugly. If they had an innings eater going before him in the rotation, maybe that could work, but they don't really (I'm thinking a knuckle-ball or Tommy John kind of guy).

 

It is time to skip Marquis liberally, for almost any excuse -- a start for Leiber to "stretch him out" want to see how Z holds up on three days rest before October comes around, want to give Gallagher and Marshall the chance to settle in on an every five days schedule. Even the return of Rich Hill should put Marquis in the bullpen at some point in August.

[champaignchris]

In my opinion, the problem with Marquis is not that he's our 4th or 5th starter or that he's a bad pitcher compared to other 4th or 5th starters.

 

The problem is that he's being paid like a 2nd or 3rd starter.

 

Compare:

Marquis 6-4 84.1 IP 4.96 ERA $6.3 million

 

Dave Bush 4-7 85.2 IP 4.94 ERA $2.5 million

Shawn Chacon (before he tried to kill his GM) 2-3 85.2 IP 5.04 ERA $2 million

Andrew Miller 5-6 81.2 IP 5.07 ERA $2.2 million

Brandon Backe 5-8 89.2 IP 4.82 ERA $800,000

 

I suppose to be fair to Marquis, I could cite the performances of some folk like Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, Kevin Millwood, and Paul Byrd and their contracts. But then all those guys had a significantly better track record (except maybe Byrd) prior to this year.

[twothousandfive]

. . .

The problem is that he's being paid like a 2nd or 3rd starter.

. . .I could cite the performances of some folk like Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, Kevin Millwood, and Paul Byrd and their contracts.

 

I think it might be better to cite those signed that same off-season -- or at least that makes it more fair to both Marquis and Hendry. I think includes Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, Tomo Ohka, and others certainly. But on price, performance, and contract length, Marquis stacks up reasonably well against all those guys (thankfully Lilly has turned it around since Apri).

 

I think when 2009 is added, the average is $9 million/year for Marquis, which is stunning. But Suppan is at $8 million + per year, and Meche is more than $11 million. At the very least, the Cubs $9 million mistake is an average #5 starter in the majors. It's better than having Carl Pavano.

[nobull]

The problem people have with Marquis is he is bad and arrogant. He is a loser.

[CubColtPacer]

. . .

The problem is that he's being paid like a 2nd or 3rd starter.

. . .I could cite the performances of some folk like Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, Kevin Millwood, and Paul Byrd and their contracts.

 

I think it might be better to cite those signed that same off-season -- or at least that makes it more fair to both Marquis and Hendry. I think includes Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, Tomo Ohka, and others certainly. But on price, performance, and contract length, Marquis stacks up reasonably well against all those guys (thankfully Lilly has turned it around since Apri).

 

I think when 2009 is added, the average is $9 million/year for Marquis, which is stunning. But Suppan is at $8 million + per year, and Meche is more than $11 million. At the very least, the Cubs $9 million mistake is an average #5 starter in the majors. It's better than having Carl Pavano.

 

Those numbers are actually slightly off. Marquis is only at 7 million per year, and Suppan is at 10.5.

 

Here's the years and average salary for every pitcher who signed multi-year deals that year.

 

Zito. 7 years, 18 million per year

Daisuke 6 years, 17.17 million per year (includes posting fee)

Meche 5 years, 11 million per year

Igawa 5 years, 9.2 million per year (includes posting fee)

Suppan 4 years, 10.5 million per year

Lilly 4 years, 10 million per year

Schmidt 3 years, 15.67 million per year

Padilla 3 years, 11.25 million per year

Batista 3 years, 8.25 million per year

Eaton 3 years, 8.17 million per year

Marquis 3 years, 7 million per year

Mussina 2 years, 11.5 million a year

Mulder 2 years, 6.5 million per year

Woody Williams 2 years, 6.25 million per year

El Duque 2 years, 6 million per year

 

Ouch. Marquis is probably 2nd or 3rd on production per dollar on that list. That's scary.

[Choonch]

The problem people have with Marquis is he is bad and arrogant. He is a loser.

 

Bingo.

[Mizzou]

Where do people get the arrogance from? I'm asking because I can't recall any smug comments from him, other than way back in ST where he commented on his status in the rotation.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Ouch. Marquis is probably 2nd or 3rd on production per dollar on that list. That's scary.

that was a great year to be a FA pitcher

[mul21]

Marquis had not given up more than five runs in a game this year before yesterday. Through this week, he's now given up 7 in one game, five runs four times, four runs once, and three or less nine times (more often than his 4+ run games. And I'm ignoring earned runs, so it's possible one or two games might be off with a different method.) He's clearly the last guy in the rotation, and more than half the time he let's up fewer than three runs. I think it is tough to argue a typical fifth starter gives you any more than that.

 

To be fair, I did give him credit for a 4.50 ERA. I wasn't trying to imply that he's good one outing and terible the next every time. He's had his share of solid efforts, but the blowups really just kill the pen and any chance the Cubs have of winning those games. The classic example is his last year with the Cards when LaRussa left him out there for 5 innings when he clearly had nothing and he gave up 12 runs.

[mul21]

Where do people get the arrogance from? I'm asking because I can't recall any smug comments from him, other than way back in ST where he commented on his status in the rotation.

 

I would guess it's partly that and the fact that 2 pitching coaches with great reputations have both just gotten completely frustrated with him because he wouldn't listen to them.

[NCCubFan]

Where do people get the arrogance from? I'm asking because I can't recall any smug comments from him, other than way back in ST where he commented on his status in the rotation.

 

I would guess it's partly that and the fact that 2 pitching coaches with great reputations have both just gotten completely frustrated with him because he wouldn't listen to them.

I think that's mainly it. He has a reputation of, after one semi-successful year with a team, he gets an attitude that he knows it all and doesn't need coaching. That was reportedly the case with both Atlanta (Mazzone) and St. Louis (Duncan).

[Choonch]

Where do people get the arrogance from? I'm asking because I can't recall any smug comments from him, other than way back in ST where he commented on his status in the rotation.

 

I would guess it's partly that and the fact that 2 pitching coaches with great reputations have both just gotten completely frustrated with him because he wouldn't listen to them.

I think that's mainly it. He has a reputation of, after one semi-successful year with a team, he gets an attitude that he knows it all and doesn't need coaching. That was reportedly the case with both Atlanta (Mazzone) and St. Louis (Duncan).

 

I agree that this is the main reason. He also sounds very smug sometimes, during interviews.

[jersey cubs fan]

Where do people get the arrogance from? I'm asking because I can't recall any smug comments from him, other than way back in ST where he commented on his status in the rotation.

 

I would guess it's partly that and the fact that 2 pitching coaches with great reputations have both just gotten completely frustrated with him because he wouldn't listen to them.

I think that's mainly it. He has a reputation of, after one semi-successful year with a team, he gets an attitude that he knows it all and doesn't need coaching. That was reportedly the case with both Atlanta (Mazzone) and St. Louis (Duncan).

 

I agree that this is the main reason. He also sounds very smug sometimes, during interviews.

 

That's just the Long Island accent.