What will it take for Marquis to lose his rotation spot?

[jersey cubs fan]

He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. What's clear is he can't go 30 starts without a boatload of complete pant crappers. We don't know when those will happen, but history may indicate they are more likely to occur the later in the season we go. As a starter, when he does blow up, it screws up a lot of things because you almost feel obligated to let him go 3-4 and give up 6-8 runs just because he was the starter, even when you know he's toast. That screws up that game, plus forced you to hit the pen early, which can screw up future games. We have no idea if he'd be able to cut back on the suckiness and be a bit more effective out of the pen, clearly that has happened before. Plus, when he does suck, you pull him right then and there. He'd also be available for spot starter duties, and long man situations.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

jason marquis is a nice example of why citing ERA or ERA+ as one's sole argument is a losing proposition.

 

What stat would you like to use that shows him as a horrible starting pitcher worthy of the hate he gets?

 

We could use his team expected win-loss from last season, which was 16.1-16.9. Or his peripheral ERA of 4.33 (don't have the numbers for this season, otherwise I would use them, apologies).

 

 

He's not a horrible starting pitcher, and I defy anyone to post some real, statistical evidence that says he is.

[CubColtPacer]

From a pure stuff standpoint, I think he has enough to be a solid no. 4, yet he can't seem to keep the ball down. Its really frustrating.

 

Here's the thing - if you get someone to replace him (Marshall when Z returns or a trade), what do you do with him? He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

Release him.

 

I'm continually baffled as to why the Cubs can't seem to grasp that concept.

 

Is there another case in the major leagues where someone has pitched to the level that Marquis with the Cubs and is released with another year on their deal?

 

If there is, I certainly haven't seen it. No organization DFA's pitchers in that situation. They have to be either significantly worse in production, riddled with injuries, or both.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With a whip heading into the 1.5s, I imagine his ERA has come with a fair bit of luck to this point. I'd love to kick his ass to long relief, but who takes his spot?

 

WHIP is such a bad stat. It's the batting-average of pitchers.

 

His FIP going into today was 4.50, almost dead even with his ERA. No BABIP luck or anything like that in there.

[TruffleShuffle]

jason marquis is a nice example of why citing ERA or ERA+ as one's sole argument is a losing proposition.

 

What stat would you like to use that shows him as a horrible starting pitcher worthy of the hate he gets?

 

We could use his team expected win-loss from last season, which was 16.1-16.9. Or his peripheral ERA of 4.33 (don't have the numbers for this season, otherwise I would use them, apologies).

 

 

He's not a horrible starting pitcher, and I defy anyone to post some real, statistical evidence that says he is.

 

i posted in the game thread that his peripherals are all ugly this year, and he's likely to get worse. his K-rate is down, his LD% against is up, and he's given up home runs on 50% fewer fly balls than normal this season. yikes.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

jason marquis is a nice example of why citing ERA or ERA+ as one's sole argument is a losing proposition.

 

What stat would you like to use that shows him as a horrible starting pitcher worthy of the hate he gets?

 

We could use his team expected win-loss from last season, which was 16.1-16.9. Or his peripheral ERA of 4.33 (don't have the numbers for this season, otherwise I would use them, apologies).

 

 

He's not a horrible starting pitcher, and I defy anyone to post some real, statistical evidence that says he is.

 

i posted in the game thread that his peripherals are all ugly this year, and he's likely to get worse. his K-rate is down, his LD% against is up, and he's given up home runs on 50% fewer fly balls than normal this season. yikes.

 

 

His peripheral ERA, according to fangraphs, was 4.50 going into today, just .07 above his actual ERA.

[imb]

With a whip heading into the 1.5s, I imagine his ERA has come with a fair bit of luck to this point. I'd love to kick his ass to long relief, but who takes his spot?

 

WHIP is such a bad stat. It's the batting-average of pitchers.

 

His FIP going into today was 4.50, almost dead even with his ERA. No BABIP luck or anything like that in there.

 

Is it really? I'm sway-able on this. 1.5 just seems exceedingly high to have such an average ERA.

[RynoRules]

From a pure stuff standpoint, I think he has enough to be a solid no. 4, yet he can't seem to keep the ball down. Its really frustrating.

 

Here's the thing - if you get someone to replace him (Marshall when Z returns or a trade), what do you do with him? He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

Release him.

 

I'm continually baffled as to why the Cubs can't seem to grasp that concept.

 

With a year and a half left on his deal? As I understand the rules, if he is claimed by another team we will have to pay the lion's share of his contract. The only way to get out from under his ocntract in full is to trade him or for him to clear waivers such that he can be released.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With a whip heading into the 1.5s, I imagine his ERA has come with a fair bit of luck to this point. I'd love to kick his ass to long relief, but who takes his spot?

 

WHIP is such a bad stat. It's the batting-average of pitchers.

 

His FIP going into today was 4.50, almost dead even with his ERA. No BABIP luck or anything like that in there.

 

Is it really? I'm sway-able on this. 1.5 just seems exceedingly high to have such an average ERA.

 

His ground-ball rate is pretty decent, which helps.

[jersey cubs fan]

With a whip heading into the 1.5s, I imagine his ERA has come with a fair bit of luck to this point. I'd love to kick his ass to long relief, but who takes his spot?

 

WHIP is such a bad stat. It's the batting-average of pitchers.

 

His FIP going into today was 4.50, almost dead even with his ERA. No BABIP luck or anything like that in there.

 

Is it really? I'm sway-able on this. 1.5 just seems exceedingly high to have such an average ERA.

 

He's 3/4 of a runs over the NL league average ERA.

[imb]

With a whip heading into the 1.5s, I imagine his ERA has come with a fair bit of luck to this point. I'd love to kick his ass to long relief, but who takes his spot?

 

WHIP is such a bad stat. It's the batting-average of pitchers.

 

His FIP going into today was 4.50, almost dead even with his ERA. No BABIP luck or anything like that in there.

 

Is it really? I'm sway-able on this. 1.5 just seems exceedingly high to have such an average ERA.

 

He's 3/4 of a runs over the NL league average ERA.

 

I was talking about heading into today. His WHIP was 1.47 and his ERA was like 4.50.

 

It's a good point about his groundball rate, I remember, maybe wrongly, that his groundball rate was headed in the wrong direction the last few years so I was assuming it was still trending down that way.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's 3/4 of a runs over the NL league average ERA.

 

He is now. He wasn't 24 hours ago. Over his last 100 innings he is, over his last 300 he's not, over his last 500 he is, over his last 750 he's not.

 

Seems to me like he's an average pitcher oscillating around the average.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's 3/4 of a runs over the NL league average ERA.

 

He is now. He wasn't 24 hours ago. Over his last 100 innings he is, over his last 300 he's not, over his last 500 he is, over his last 750 he's not.

 

Seems to me like he's an average pitcher oscillating around the average.

 

Seems to me he's obviously not consistently above average.

[TruffleShuffle]

i guess in some ways i agree with you. he's adequate as a starter at the back of the rotation, even though he's too hittable and his command is pretty lousy for someone with marginal stuff. my main beef with him is the decline in his peripherals; i worry that once more of the fly balls start going over the fence, he's going to be barely passable as a #5 starter. the contract is dumb but marquis really shouldn't be an obstacle to winning... he is still someone you don't want anywhere near the field in a playoff game, however.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i guess in some ways i agree with you. he's adequate as a starter at the back of the rotation, even though he's too hittable and his command is pretty lousy for someone with marginal stuff. my main beef with him is the decline in his peripherals; i worry that once more of the fly balls start going over the fence, he's going to be barely passable as a #5 starter. the contract is dumb but marquis really shouldn't be an obstacle to winning... he is still someone you don't want anywhere near the field in a playoff game, however.

 

Agreed. Hendry should never have signed him to the contract he did, and he's definitely the first guy bumped from the rotation.

 

I just don't get the Estes-level hate for someone who isn't close to Estes-level bad.

[imb]

i guess in some ways i agree with you. he's adequate as a starter at the back of the rotation, even though he's too hittable and his command is pretty lousy for someone with marginal stuff. my main beef with him is the decline in his peripherals; i worry that once more of the fly balls start going over the fence, he's going to be barely passable as a #5 starter. the contract is dumb but marquis really shouldn't be an obstacle to winning... he is still someone you don't want anywhere near the field in a playoff game, however.

 

Agreed. Hendry should never have signed him to the contract he did, and he's definitely the first guy bumped from the rotation.

 

I just don't get the Estes-level hate for someone who isn't close to Estes-level bad.

 

There's gonna be estes-level hate for someone, might as well be the worst starter in the rotation

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's clear hes just not a quality major league starter, and we will need to fill his spot. If Rich Hill can get his act together wherever the hell he is, then he could be the guy, but if not, Jim needs to get on the horn with Toronto or whoever.

[TruffleShuffle]

if the cubs make a trade, it should be to get a guy who will be a top 3 option in the postseason, not to get marquis out of the rotation. this team should be good enough to make it to the playoffs even with marquis taking the ball every five days.

[NCCubFan]

From a pure stuff standpoint, I think he has enough to be a solid no. 4, yet he can't seem to keep the ball down. Its really frustrating.

 

Here's the thing - if you get someone to replace him (Marshall when Z returns or a trade), what do you do with him? He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

Release him.

 

I'm continually baffled as to why the Cubs can't seem to grasp that concept.

 

With a year and a half left on his deal? As I understand the rules, if he is claimed by another team we will have to pay the lion's share of his contract. The only way to get out from under his ocntract in full is to trade him or for him to clear waivers such that he can be released.

You have it backwards. If he IS claimed by another team on waivers then that team is responsible in full. If he is NOT claimed and clears waivers then the Cubs are responsible in full unless he signs with another team after being released. Then the new team would be responsible for a prorated share of the minimum salary and the Cubs would be on the hook for the remainder. That's what happened with Edmonds signing with the Cubs after clearing waivers and being released by the Padres.

[Sammy Sofa]

From a pure stuff standpoint, I think he has enough to be a solid no. 4, yet he can't seem to keep the ball down. Its really frustrating.

 

Here's the thing - if you get someone to replace him (Marshall when Z returns or a trade), what do you do with him? He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

Release him.

 

I'm continually baffled as to why the Cubs can't seem to grasp that concept.

 

With a year and a half left on his deal? As I understand the rules, if he is claimed by another team we will have to pay the lion's share of his contract. The only way to get out from under his ocntract in full is to trade him or for him to clear waivers such that he can be released.

 

I guess I was just trying to make myself feel better, because I was positive this was the last year of his deal. I have no idea why I thought he was signed a year before Lilly. Wishful thinking, I guess.

[Little Slide Rooter]

From a pure stuff standpoint, I think he has enough to be a solid no. 4, yet he can't seem to keep the ball down. Its really frustrating.

 

Here's the thing - if you get someone to replace him (Marshall when Z returns or a trade), what do you do with him? He'd be just as bad if not worse out of the pen.

 

Release him.

 

I'm continually baffled as to why the Cubs can't seem to grasp that concept.

 

With a year and a half left on his deal? As I understand the rules, if he is claimed by another team we will have to pay the lion's share of his contract. The only way to get out from under his ocntract in full is to trade him or for him to clear waivers such that he can be released.

You have it backwards. If he IS claimed by another team on waivers then that team is responsible in full. If he is NOT claimed and clears waivers then the Cubs are responsible in full unless he signs with another team after being released. Then the new team would be responsible for a prorated share of the minimum salary and the Cubs would be on the hook for the remainder. That's what happened with Edmonds signing with the Cubs after clearing waivers and being released by the Padres.

 

Are the Padres paying Jimmy or the Cards?

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

 

Are the Padres paying Jimmy or the Cards?

I thought I heard that both teams were, but I'm too lazy to look it up and make sure.

[Clem Fandango]

i'm not so sure a completely wild hill is any worse than marquis...

 

I agree. The completely wild Hill that we had at the start of the season still wasn't that bad.

 

You can point to his walks all you want, but his control was not causing a huge damper on his ERA. It wasn't helping it, but it wasn't giving him a huge 5.00+ ERA.

 

Look at Fausto Carmona's walks per start this year up to his injury:

 

Apr 2nd: 4 BB

Apr 7th: 5 BB

Apr 12th: 8 BB

Apr 17th: 1 BB

Apr 24th: 4 BB

Apr 29th: 4 BB

May 6th: 5 BB

May 12th: 4 BB

May 17th: 0 BB

May 23rd: 3 BB

 

38 walks in 10 starts and 58 IP.

 

Yet he still had a 3.10 ERA and had a 4-2 record, but also a 1.58 WHIP. The guy's control was comparable, if not worse, than Hill's was/is, but instead of sending down their young promising starter to the minors to work out the kinks, they kept him up to let him work through it, and you know what, he never really did... and they still won because he had stuff good enough to keep his team in the ballgame. Hill has/had that stuff.

 

Now, granted, back in the minors Rich Hill has been just as bad with his control now as he was then, so it's kind of a moot point.

 

But regardless of all that, I'd still would've taken a wild Rich Hill who will walk 3-5 and only give up 2-4 runs a game (which is exactly what he was doing), with smatterings of greatness, over Jason Marquis who is a good bet for a range between mediocre and crap each and every game.

 

Unfortunately, Rich Hill has gotten worse, and that makes me a sad panda.

[Productive Outs]

i'm not so sure a completely wild hill is any worse than marquis...

 

I agree. The completely wild Hill that we had at the start of the season still wasn't that bad.

 

You can point to his walks all you want, but his control was not causing a huge damper on his ERA. It wasn't helping it, but it wasn't giving him a huge 5.00+ ERA.

 

Look at Fausto Carmona's walks per start this year up to his injury:

 

Apr 2nd: 4 BB

Apr 7th: 5 BB

Apr 12th: 8 BB

Apr 17th: 1 BB

Apr 24th: 4 BB

Apr 29th: 4 BB

May 6th: 5 BB

May 12th: 4 BB

May 17th: 0 BB

May 23rd: 3 BB

 

38 walks in 10 starts and 58 IP.

 

Yet he still had a 3.10 ERA and had a 4-2 record, but also a 1.58 WHIP. The guy's control was comparable, if not worse, than Hill's was/is, but instead of sending down their young promising starter to the minors to work out the kinks, they kept him up to let him work through it, and you know what, he never really did... and they still won because he had stuff good enough to keep his team in the ballgame. Hill has/had that stuff.

 

Now, granted, back in the minors Rich Hill has been just as bad with his control now as he was then, so it's kind of a moot point.

 

But regardless of all that, I'd still would've taken a wild Rich Hill who will walk 3-5 and only give up 2-4 runs a game (which is exactly what he was doing), with smatterings of greatness, over Jason Marquis who is a good bet for a range between mediocre and crap each and every game.

 

Unfortunately, Rich Hill has gotten worse, and that makes me a sad panda.

 

I think Carmona is a bad example. Carmona was (is?) going to implode. His FIP for the season is 4.60. His BABIP is .274. He has a ridiculously-low HR/F of 3.2%, while giving up .15 HR/game (extremely low). His defense has also turned 15 double plays behind him in only 58 innings, compared to 36 in 215 innings last year. While Carmona is a groundball pitcher, and I don't have league average DP data, that seems like a high rate.

 

Likewise, Hill's 2008 MLB FIP is 5.78. Hill's 2008 AAA FIP is 6.47. His MLB BABIP is .214 (his AAA BABIP is .310). Again, he has a lower HR/F rate, and is giving up fewer HR than normal. I don't have time to list the DP data (should be studying right now), but I am going to guess that Hill has not been the beneficiary of as many double plays.

[NCCubFan]

 

Are the Padres paying Jimmy or the Cards?

I thought I heard that both teams were, but I'm too lazy to look it up and make sure.

I think they both are some, but I'm not sure how much each team is paying. That depends on what they agreed on as the terms of the trade.