Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[rchap24]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

[bukie]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

[rchap24]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

 

No I understand I just thought it was surprising only two losses...Not a loss to OSU or Wisconsin on the road?

[bukie]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

 

No I understand I just thought it was surprising only two losses...Not a loss to OSU or Wisconsin on the road?

Well, the odds of winning each individual game is just above 50%, but the odds of winning both games is less than that. According to Pomeroy's overall statistics, there are pretty good odds Purdue is going to lose at least 2 other games on their schedule. However, chances are pretty good they'll be favored in the OSU and Wisconsin contests.

[rchap24]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

 

No I understand I just thought it was surprising only two losses...Not a loss to OSU or Wisconsin on the road?

Well, the odds of winning each individual game is just above 50%, but the odds of winning both games is less than that. According to Pomeroy's overall statistics, there are pretty good odds Purdue is going to lose at least 2 other games on their schedule. However, chances are pretty good they'll be favored in the OSU and Wisconsin contests.

 

OK

[SouthSideRyan]

Pomeroy has upgraded Penn State to a predicted 19-12 (8-10), which is about right barring another upset. A win at Michigan and/or at Iowa would push them to 20 wins, but I still don't think it's enough to make the NCAA tournament (unless they make it to the final game of the BTT)

 

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I

That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

 

Pomeroy can't even add correctly!!

[bukie]

I should do another bracket today based on Pomeroy ratings. It'd be hilarious, because Northwestern would be in.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

[rchap24]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

 

How is Purdue an 8 seed?

[Smack]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

 

How is Purdue an 8 seed?

 

Who have they beat that's a good team?

[rchap24]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

 

How is Purdue an 8 seed?

 

Who have they beat that's a good team?

 

Davidson, Wisconsin...but I get your point

[Smack]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

 

How is Purdue an 8 seed?

 

Who have they beat that's a good team?

 

Davidson, Wisconsin...but I get your point

 

Yeah, big wins at Minnesota tonight and then at Wisconsin would really help their seeding.

[rchap24]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

 

How is Purdue an 8 seed?

 

Who have they beat that's a good team?

 

Davidson, Wisconsin...but I get your point

 

Yeah, big wins at Minnesota tonight and then at Wisconsin would really help their seeding.

 

Ha and for a small while after the BC V. NC game I thought our tourney win against them...then they lost to Harvard...and then the next two games after that, but yeah tonight and at Wisconsin would be huge for us

[bukie]

Bracket based on Pomeroy ratings:

 

SOUTH
1.Duke (ACC)  
16a.Morgan St. (MEAC)
16b.Alabama St. (SWAC)

8.Syracuse                   
9.Oklahoma St.               

4.Illinois                   
13.Miami OH (MAC)

5.Xavier (A10)  
12.LSU              

2.Connecticut                
15.Jacksonville (ASun)

7.Utah (MWC)  
10.Wisconsin                  

3.Memphis (CUSA)  
14.Texas Arlington (Slnd)

6.Kentucky (SEC)  
11.Kansas St.                 

-----------------------
EAST
1.Pittsburgh (BE)  
16.Mount St. Mary's (NEC)

8.Baylor                     
9.Florida                    

4.Wake Forest                
13.North Dakota St. (Sum)

5.Washington                 
12.Houston                    

2.Missouri (B12)  
15.Cornell (Ivy)

7.Butler (Horz)  
10.Miami FL                   

3.West Virginia              
14.Middle Tennessee (SB)

6.California                 
11.Minnesota                  

-----------------------
MIDWEST
1.North Carolina
16.Tennessee Martin (OVC)             

8.Villanova                  
9.Stanford                   

4.Purdue (B10)  
13.Creighton (MVC)

5.Kansas                     
12.Utah St. (WAC)

2.Arizona St. (P10)  
15.Pacific (BW)

7.Brigham Young              
10.Davidson (SC)  

3.Louisville                 
14.Vermont (AE)

6.Clemson                    
11.Northwestern               

-----------------------
WEST
1.Gonzaga (WCC)  
16.Liberty (BSth)

8.Southern California        
9.Tennessee                  

4.Oklahoma                   
13.Siena (MAAC)

5.Marquette                  
12.Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)

2.Georgetown                 
15.American (Pat)

7.Texas                      
10.San Diego St.              

3.UCLA                       
14.Portland St. (BSky)

6.Michigan St.               
11.Notre Dame                 

 

Last 4 in: Minnesota, Notre Dame, LSU, Houston

First 10 out: St. Mary's, Ohio State, UAB, Arizona, Cleveland State, Maryland, Washington State, Tulsa, New Mexico, Rhode Island

 

Conference representation:

Big East - 9

Big 12 - 7

Big Ten - 6

Pac-10 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 4

MWC - 3

 

For amusement, if nothing else. :)

[rchap24]

Bracket based on Pomeroy ratings:

 

SOUTH
1.Duke (ACC)  
16a.Morgan St. (MEAC)
16b.Alabama St. (SWAC)

8.Syracuse                   
9.Oklahoma St.               

4.Illinois                   
13.Miami OH (MAC)

5.Xavier (A10)  
12.LSU              

2.Connecticut                
15.Jacksonville (ASun)

7.Utah (MWC)  
10.Wisconsin                  

3.Memphis (CUSA)  
14.Texas Arlington (Slnd)

6.Kentucky (SEC)  
11.Kansas St.                 

-----------------------
EAST
1.Pittsburgh (BE)  
16.Mount St. Mary's (NEC)

8.Baylor                     
9.Florida                    

4.Wake Forest                
13.North Dakota St. (Sum)

5.Washington                 
12.Houston                    

2.Missouri (B12)  
15.Cornell (Ivy)

7.Butler (Horz)  
10.Miami FL                   

3.West Virginia              
14.Middle Tennessee (SB)

6.California                 
11.Minnesota                  

-----------------------
MIDWEST
1.North Carolina
16.Tennessee Martin (OVC)             

8.Villanova                  
9.Stanford                   

4.Purdue (B10)  
13.Creighton (MVC)

5.Kansas                     
12.Utah St. (WAC)

2.Arizona St. (P10)  
15.Pacific (BW)

7.Brigham Young              
10.Davidson (SC)  

3.Louisville                 
14.Vermont (AE)

6.Clemson                    
11.Northwestern               

-----------------------
WEST
1.Gonzaga (WCC)  
16.Liberty (BSth)

8.Southern California        
9.Tennessee                  

4.Oklahoma                   
13.Siena (MAAC)

5.Marquette                  
12.Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)

2.Georgetown                 
15.American (Pat)

7.Texas                      
10.San Diego St.              

3.UCLA                       
14.Portland St. (BSky)

6.Michigan St.               
11.Notre Dame                 

 

Last 4 in: Minnesota, Notre Dame, LSU, Houston

First 10 out: St. Mary's, Ohio State, UAB, Arizona, Cleveland State, Maryland, Washington State, Tulsa, New Mexico, Rhode Island

 

Conference representation:

Big East - 9

Big 12 - 7

Big Ten - 6

Pac-10 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 4

MWC - 3

 

For amusement, if nothing else. :)

 

Ok so that rates Purdue way to high at a 4 seed....I think were in between a 4 seed and an 8 seed

[Jon]

My buddy who writes for this site:

 

http://www.bracketography.com/

 

Had just turned in a big column about how overrated Northwestern is late yesterday afternoon.

It's not easy to project a team that will get killed on the boards and had no idea how to win a game at the end until Sunday afternoon.

 

vs. Central Arkansas - W - 81-39

vs. TAMCC - W - 66-48

@ Brown - W - 73-64

@ Butler - L - 53-57 (NU lead 36-27 at the half and 44-43 with 7 minutes left)

vs. UC Riverside - W - 59-43

vs. Florida State - W - 73-59

vs. DePaul - W - 63-36

vs. UMKC - W - 77-62

@ Stanford - L - 59-65 (Trailed nearly all game but missed a foul shot to tie it with under 2 minutes to go)

vs. SMU - W - 66-55

@ Penn State - L - 57-61 (NU lead 25-21 at the half, 34-23 with 15 minutes left, and then blew it)

vs. Michigan State - L - 66-77 (NU lead by 1 at the half, but Michigan State went on a 12-0 run start the 2nd half)

@ Wisconsin - L - 45-74 (Only blowout loss)

vs. Purdue - L - 61-63 (NU lead 34-21 at the half, lead by 13 with 15 minutes left, lead by 10 with 7 minutes left before Purdue took their first lead of the game with 67 seconds left)

vs. Minnesota - W - 74-65

@ Michigan State - W - 70-63

 

The Penn State loss hurt a lot, but to go 2-3 against Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan State is pretty impressive for this team. We have an easier part of the schedule coming up, too.

 

Of course, I don't know how people rated Northwestern before last night, so I don't know if they were overrated or not.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Penn State loss hurt a lot, but to go 2-3 against Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan State is pretty impressive for this team. We have an easier part of the schedule coming up, too.

 

the purdue loss was worse. the loss against penn state, they were up 11 but still had 15 minutes to go and were on the road. the purdue game they were at home and had the same size lead with like 8 minutes left. they would've won that game if they'd kept playing their offense rather than running down the shot clock to three seconds and then chuck up a lousy shot.

[fiver]

so how many years before IU makes the NCAA tournament again? I'm hoping for the '10/'11 season.

[CubColtPacer]

so how many years before IU makes the NCAA tournament again? I'm hoping for the '10/'11 season.

 

Either next year or the year after. They get potentially 7 new bodies next year, so it really depends on how the team gels and how quickly. Their starting lineup for next year won't look anything like this year though:

 

PG: Rivers

SG: Williams

SF: Watford

PF: Elston

C: Pritchard

 

Backups: Dumes, Jones, Creek, Hulls, Miniru/Capobiano (one of these will be too raw and out of the rotation), Roth, Story

 

Watford gives the team that 3rd scoring threat. Also that team will have a lot more height on the court than this year even if there still isn't a lot of heavy guys. Add to that a point guard with experience and most of the things that are killing IU this year will be different next year. They'll have plenty of depth so that the walkons who have been on the court a lot this year won't have to play.

 

But that team will still be mostly filled with freshman and sophmores. My projected starting lineup has 3 freshman in it, and that's always a cause for worry. So depending on how mature they are when they get to the university, it will be either 09 or 10 (the only players IU loses after 09 are Dumes and Jobe, where their replacements will almost certainly be a collective upgrade).

[SouthSideRyan]

Indiana will not make the tournament next year. They'll be lucky to make it in '10-'11.

[CubColtPacer]

Indiana will not make the tournament next year. They'll be lucky to make it in '10-'11.

 

I might have believed that before the season. But I really didn't expect Pritchard or Williams to be anything more than role players for their entire IU career. That would have left the freshman next year as the ones who would have to carry the team, which is way too much to expect of them.

 

Pritchard has been a much better offensive player than I expected from the beginning of the year though, and Williams has really been flashing his skill the last few weeks. What they need now is to not be the only 2 players on the court who will shoot (frequently in the Penn State game it was those 2 and 3 others who won't even look at the basket). Add Watford, who I believe who will be a legitimate scorer from the beginning, and you have a pretty nice top 3 scoring threats.

 

My projected starting lineup is also 6-4 (who was a post guy in high school and is a pretty good rebounder), 6-5, 6-8, 6-8, and 6-9. No giant players among them, but they aren't going to get outclassed size wise like they are on a regular basis this year. Also those 5 should be well above average defensively, especially on perimeter defense. The bench is solid in that scenario. Jones as your backup point guard is fine. Roth as a situational guy is absolutely fine. Dumes and Story getting a few minutes a game won't hurt you much at all. And then we'll see what they get from the other 4 recruits for next year, any of whom could join the rotation.

 

They aren't going to be anything special. Poor 3 point shooting and no huge size advantages will make certain of that. But I have a hard time seeing why that lineup should not be projected as a low-tier tournament team next year.

[woodchip2153]

just saw on ESPN that Illinois is giving a basketball scholarship to Jordan. Will this affect future recruiting classes at all?

[SouthSideRyan]

just saw on ESPN that Illinois is giving a basketball scholarship to Jordan. Will this affect future recruiting classes at all?

 

It's for spring semester only. Jordan was on academic scholarship before this, and I don't believe he can go back now. Could mean a lot of things(Bill Cole transfer, Jordan was gonna lose his academic scholarship, wanted to honor Jeff for his hard work and didn't care about junior/senior year cause Michael can probably swing it) but it will not affect any future recruits.

[SouthSideRyan]

CCP, I'm not ignoring your IU post, just want to look up some #s first before I make an ass out of myself, and since I'm at work, it's gonna have to wait.

[woodchip2153]

just saw on ESPN that Illinois is giving a basketball scholarship to Jordan. Will this affect future recruiting classes at all?

 

It's for spring semester only. Jordan was on academic scholarship before this, and I don't believe he can go back now. Could mean a lot of things(Bill Cole transfer, Jordan was gonna lose his academic scholarship, wanted to honor Jeff for his hard work and didn't care about junior/senior year cause Michael can probably swing it) but it will not affect any future recruits.

 

thanks.