Re: Where's Meph? (Khalil Greene)

Hosak8 · April 30, 2008

CAUTION: Small sample size alert

In 15 games last year in National League Central ballparks (66 PA):

300/318/583, for a nice little 901 OPS, with 4 HR.

I'm just saying....

CAUTION: Small (though not quite as small)

56 PA?

Oooppss... :oops:

It's late.

XZero771679666304 · April 30, 2008

CAUTION: Small sample size alert

In 15 games last year in National League Central ballparks (66 PA):

300/318/583, for a nice little 901 OPS, with 4 HR.

I'm just saying....

CAUTION: Small sample size alert...

Career at Wrigley Field:

.200/.259/.400 for an OPS of .659

I'm just saying...

Khalil Greene hasn't matched up well at all with our pitching staff over that time, either. We have had a bunch of wild strikeout pitchers, and Greene is a free swinger who strikes out a lot. Not much surprise that his numbers at Wrigley wouldn't be good.

EDIT: A cursory glance at the numbers shows he has been even worse against the Cubs at Petco.

Hosak8 · April 30, 2008

CAUTION: Small sample size alert

In 15 games last year in National League Central ballparks (66 PA):

300/318/583, for a nice little 901 OPS, with 4 HR.

I'm just saying....

CAUTION: Small sample size alert...

Career at Wrigley Field:

.200/.259/.400 for an OPS of .659

I'm just saying...

Khalil Greene hasn't matched up well at all with our pitching staff over that time, either. We have had a bunch of wild strikeout pitchers, and Greene is a free swinger who strikes out a lot. Not much surprise that his numbers at Wrigley wouldn't be good.

EDIT: A cursory glance at the numbers shows he has been even worse against the Cubs at Petco.

True, but strikeouts aren't the entire reason why. He only has 20 K's in 4 years against the Cubs (1 for every 5 AB's, whereas he has 1 per 4.7 against everyone else) and a BABIP of .213. (For the record, his avg against Cubs pitching over that time is .170, and he's hitting .140 against Cub pitching at Petco.)

So, he has put more balls in play against the Cubs than he does the rest of the league, on average. He just sucks even when he does.

XZero771679666304 · April 30, 2008

CAUTION: Small sample size alert

In 15 games last year in National League Central ballparks (66 PA):

300/318/583, for a nice little 901 OPS, with 4 HR.

I'm just saying....

CAUTION: Small sample size alert...

Career at Wrigley Field:

.200/.259/.400 for an OPS of .659

I'm just saying...

Khalil Greene hasn't matched up well at all with our pitching staff over that time, either. We have had a bunch of wild strikeout pitchers, and Greene is a free swinger who strikes out a lot. Not much surprise that his numbers at Wrigley wouldn't be good.

EDIT: A cursory glance at the numbers shows he has been even worse against the Cubs at Petco.

True, but strikeouts aren't the entire reason why. He only has 20 K's in 4 years against the Cubs (1 for every 5 AB's, whereas he has 1 per 4.7 against everyone else) and a BABIP of .213. (For the record, his avg against Cubs pitching over that time is .170, and he's hitting .140 against Cub pitching at Petco.)

So, he has put more balls in play against the Cubs than he does the rest of the league, on average. He just sucks even when he does.

Either way, he has struggled against the Cubs regardless of venue, so his struggles at Wrigley are most likely a result of facing Cubs pitching rather than any problem with Wrigley itself.

Schwarber Fan · April 30, 2008

Who cares about his numbers in certain parks, I've always thought those stats were useless.

The point is, he's a MAJOR upgrade over Theriot.

wrigley23 · April 30, 2008

Stop harping on strikeouts as if they're somehow worse than other outs. It makes little difference how someone gets out unless they're always hitting into double plays...an out is an out.

Secondly, your final sentence makes absolutely no sense. How will Greene and Soriano "dilute" the OBP of other hitters? That makes absolutely no sense.

Let me ask you, since you have such a boner for OBP and hate strikeouts so much...what do you think of Adam Dunn? Does he make your head implode?[/quote

I'm not arguing whether a strikeout is a worse out than a grounder which can result in moving a runner over but a strikeout is an out...period...that does nothing to move the runners. My point is that he whiffs a ton & has a very low OBP...in fact, sub .300 lifetime. He is a very poor "team hitter". He has more pop than normal at SS but I don't feel that is what this team is lacking. You act like a strikeout is good because it keeps you from a double play. It is if that is the alternative, but it is not.

How will they dilute it? By taking a player out of the lineup that actually takes pitches & gets on base...that's how.

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

Banedon · April 30, 2008

I emailed the guy that wrote the Union Trib article, and he replied. My email first...his follows:

Just so you know, this little blurb has caused quite the conversation piece on Cubs forums today. Is this something that is currently going on, or is this just speculation? After the Brian Roberts rumors, there’s some understandable skepticism.

The general consensus is that this makes too much sense to happen.

No sweat, just an item revisited what happened last May, very low level.

anabiono · April 30, 2008

I emailed the guy that wrote the Union Trib article, and he replied. My email first...his follows:

Just so you know, this little blurb has caused quite the conversation piece on Cubs forums today. Is this something that is currently going on, or is this just speculation? After the Brian Roberts rumors, there’s some understandable skepticism.

The general consensus is that this makes too much sense to happen.

No sweat, just an item revisited what happened last May, very low level.

LOL

:rotfl:

Jehrico · April 30, 2008

So why is he writing about something that was low level a year ago and never gained any steam?

Note to self: Don't read Tom Krasovic in the future.

CuseCubFan69 · April 30, 2008

What exactly is low level? Two guys in a bar talking about this or Hendry contacting the SD GM and asking what he had for lunch and oh yeah by the way, how's that SS that got away from us doing?

CoolHandLuke · April 30, 2008

Stop harping on strikeouts as if they're somehow worse than other outs. It makes little difference how someone gets out unless they're always hitting into double plays...an out is an out.

Secondly, your final sentence makes absolutely no sense. How will Greene and Soriano "dilute" the OBP of other hitters? That makes absolutely no sense.

Let me ask you, since you have such a boner for OBP and hate strikeouts so much...what do you think of Adam Dunn? Does he make your head implode?[/quote

I'm not arguing whether a strikeout is a worse out than a grounder which can result in moving a runner over but a strikeout is an out...period...that does nothing to move the runners. My point is that he whiffs a ton & has a very low OBP...in fact, sub .300 lifetime. He is a very poor "team hitter". He has more pop than normal at SS but I don't feel that is what this team is lacking. You act like a strikeout is good because it keeps you from a double play. It is if that is the alternative, but it is not.

How will they dilute it? By taking a player out of the lineup that actually takes pitches & gets on base...that's how.

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

26 players hit 30 or more home runs last year. 10 of them had an OBP of at least .400. Only 18 hitters had an OBP of .400.

Hitters who hit a lot of homers and get on base at a high clip are obviously rare, but they are only as rare as good hitters in general are.

rawaction · April 30, 2008

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

You can't compare Greene to a corner OF though. He's a SS. Find a SS that hits a ton of HRs and gets on base at a high clip. Now ask yourself, is Hanley Ramirez available? A Soriano type is not ideal in your corner OF. But at SS (or 2B which Alf was or CF where Alf started out as a Cub) is a position where that production is worth its weight in gold.

CuseCubFan69 · April 30, 2008

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

You can't compare Greene to a corner OF though. He's a SS. Find a SS that hits a ton of HRs and gets on base at a high clip. Now ask yourself, is Hanley Ramirez available? A Soriano type is not ideal in your corner OF. But at SS (or 2B which Alf was or CF where Alf started out as a Cub) is a position where that production is worth its weight in gold.

I wish Soriano could field at SS the way Greene does.

Sammy Sofa · April 30, 2008

I'm not arguing whether a strikeout is a worse out than a grounder which can result in moving a runner over but a strikeout is an out...period...that does nothing to move the runners. My point is that he whiffs a ton & has a very low OBP...in fact, sub .300 lifetime. He is a very poor "team hitter". He has more pop than normal at SS but I don't feel that is what this team is lacking. You act like a strikeout is good because it keeps you from a double play. It is if that is the alternative, but it is not.

Any team can always use more power. It's asinine to say otherwise.

How will they dilute it? By taking a player out of the lineup that actually takes pitches & gets on base...that's how.

Greene would replace Theriot and Cedeno. Likely no great loss there at all as that Greene's projected numbers in terms of scoring runs well outproduces anything they would probably accomplish. Soriano is also likely not kicking out anyone. Johnson is obviously going to still get a ton of playing time in CF. So who is the OBP machine being removed from the lineup? Lee, Aramis, DeRosa, Soto and Fukudome are all obviously staying in the lineup. You're full of it on this one, and basically making up phantom players that don't exist. To top it off, in an ideal lineup, Fukudome is batting 2nd with Green batting 5th or 6th. He wouldn't be setting tables...he'd be here to clean them off. He'd be batting behind the OBP guys to help bring them home. How is that a bad thing?

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

Ah, so Dunn's HR's count more because he takes more walks. Gotcha. That makes complete and total sense.

This team does not need Soriano? Yeah, the guy that hits 30+ HR's a year, 40 doubles and 70-100 RBI's with around a .900 OPS is "not needed." You may not want him hitting leadoff, but to act like he's somehow hurting the team when he's playing healthy is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen posted here. You're like the logic that makes OBP a smart thing run amuck into some ridiculous extreme where you think HR's, run, RBI's and hits accomplished by someone with a sub .350 OBP somehow don't count or "hurt the team." Then, to top it off, you cling to OBP, but then constantly toss out batting average like it actually proves anything. And you somehow think strikeouts are signifiantly "worse" outs than anything else.

Incredible. Listen to yourself. If a productive Soriano is a "problem," I wish this team had a lot more problems.

Clem Fandango · April 30, 2008

I was going to post "I wish Meph was here to end this debate", but instead I went and searched for the post he made on the Brian Roberts thread that made me a believer...

Khalil Greene is an extreme flyball hitter. In fact, last season he was in the 91st percentile in batted ball flyball percentage. Khalil Greene plays half of his games in Petco Park. Petco is the worst park for a flyball hitter to play in. Wrigley Field, on the other hand, is one of the better ones. Khalil Greene's splits each season bear the effect of Petco on his production.

Petco
.152/.176/.182/.358 - 2003
.241/.345/.338/.683 - 2004
.256/.285/.399/.684 - 2005
.210/.282/.346/.628 - 2006
.216/.258/.412/.670 - 2007

Everywhere else
.281/.361/.625/.986 - 2003
.301/.353/.543/.896 - 2004
.244/.308/.465/.773 - 2005
.280/.356/.507/.863 - 2006
.288/.322/.519/.840 - 2007

Park effects do NOT affect all hitters the same. Khalil Greene is the WORST player for the Padres. He's a terrible fit for them. Once Khalil is saved from baseball yellowstone hes going to breakout into the player he was destined to become. If he were on the Cubs next season you should expect a line of .275/.330/.500/.830 at the minimum.

So yeah, I don't even need to mention he plays shortstop, or the fact that he's a tremendous defensive player at shortstop. Or the fact that we can sign two CFers (Fukudome, Bradley) relatively easily and have another one a year or two away in the minors (Colvin) and that we have no other options internally at SS (Cedeno does not count with our regime) and externally this is are only bet and he's probably a better player on the Cubs than Miguel Tejada. Yes. Khalil Greene would be flat out better than Miguel Tejada, trade parts aside. I don't even have to mention that I am down on Felix Pie. Would you trade Pie for Tejada straight up? Of course. Doing Pie for Greene straight up should be a no-brainer too. It's too bad I'm the only one here who sees this.

Khalil Greene is the PERFECT trade for our offseason "Big Acquisition"

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/StampofApprovalSmall.png

I hope you all have seen the light on Greene.

Keep in mind this was posted in December

SouthSideRyan · April 30, 2008

Meph also had an irrational dislike of Pie. He also mentioned in the post that he's discounting Cedeno because the organization wasn't going to give him a chance. Calling it a smart move in the hypothetical to trade Pie and Cedeno becuase the organization won't play them is short-sighted. "Oh our team is stupid and won't give chances to legitamate players, let's trade them away." If the people in charge are being stupid about real talents, then let's hypothetically get rid of the people in charge.

We had 2 question marks heading into the season in SS and CF. We have 2 players whose track record would show they can at least be passable in filling those holes, and have the potential to be plusses in both of those "holes" But we want to give in to the organization's stupidity and trade these guys away because "they'll never play them" (which is far from proven anyways.) I'm not going to argue against Khalil being an above average SS. My problem comes with trading 2 guys I think will be above average to get that part.

Hosak8 · April 30, 2008

Meph also had an irrational dislike of Pie. He also mentioned in the post that he's discounting Cedeno because the organization wasn't going to give him a chance. Calling it a smart move in the hypothetical to trade Pie and Cedeno becuase the organization won't play them is short-sighted. "Oh our team is stupid and won't give chances to legitamate players, let's trade them away." If the people in charge are being stupid about real talents, then let's hypothetically get rid of the people in charge.

We had 2 question marks heading into the season in SS and CF. We have 2 players whose track record would show they can at least be passable in filling those holes, and have the potential to be plusses in both of those "holes" But we want to give in to the organization's stupidity and trade these guys away because "they'll never play them" (which is far from proven anyways.) I'm not going to argue against Khalil being an above average SS. My problem comes with trading 2 guys I think will be above average to get that part.

What on earth has Cedeno done to convince you that he will be above average?

Ding Dong Johnson · April 30, 2008

Meph also had an irrational dislike of Pie. He also mentioned in the post that he's discounting Cedeno because the organization wasn't going to give him a chance. Calling it a smart move in the hypothetical to trade Pie and Cedeno becuase the organization won't play them is short-sighted. "Oh our team is stupid and won't give chances to legitamate players, let's trade them away." If the people in charge are being stupid about real talents, then let's hypothetically get rid of the people in charge.

We had 2 question marks heading into the season in SS and CF. We have 2 players whose track record would show they can at least be passable in filling those holes, and have the potential to be plusses in both of those "holes" But we want to give in to the organization's stupidity and trade these guys away because "they'll never play them" (which is far from proven anyways.) I'm not going to argue against Khalil being an above average SS. My problem comes with trading 2 guys I think will be above average to get that part.

What on earth has Cedeno done to convince you that he will be above average?

this

CoolHandLuke · April 30, 2008

Meph also had an irrational dislike of Pie. He also mentioned in the post that he's discounting Cedeno because the organization wasn't going to give him a chance. Calling it a smart move in the hypothetical to trade Pie and Cedeno becuase the organization won't play them is short-sighted. "Oh our team is stupid and won't give chances to legitamate players, let's trade them away." If the people in charge are being stupid about real talents, then let's hypothetically get rid of the people in charge.

We had 2 question marks heading into the season in SS and CF. We have 2 players whose track record would show they can at least be passable in filling those holes, and have the potential to be plusses in both of those "holes" But we want to give in to the organization's stupidity and trade these guys away because "they'll never play them" (which is far from proven anyways.) I'm not going to argue against Khalil being an above average SS. My problem comes with trading 2 guys I think will be above average to get that part.

What on earth has Cedeno done to convince you that he will be above average?

Hit the crap out of the ball in AAA last year, while still being fairly young and possessing solid tools?

shnsajax · April 30, 2008

I'm not arguing whether a strikeout is a worse out than a grounder which can result in moving a runner over but a strikeout is an out...period...that does nothing to move the runners. My point is that he whiffs a ton & has a very low OBP...in fact, sub .300 lifetime. He is a very poor "team hitter". He has more pop than normal at SS but I don't feel that is what this team is lacking. You act like a strikeout is good because it keeps you from a double play. It is if that is the alternative, but it is not.

Any team can always use more power. It's asinine to say otherwise.

How will they dilute it? By taking a player out of the lineup that actually takes pitches & gets on base...that's how.

Greene would replace Theriot and Cedeno. Likely no great loss there at all as that Greene's projected numbers in terms of scoring runs well outproduces anything they would probably accomplish. Soriano is also likely not kicking out anyone. Johnson is obviously going to still get a ton of playing time in CF. So who is the OBP machine being removed from the lineup? Lee, Aramis, DeRosa, Soto and Fukudome are all obviously staying in the lineup. You're full of it on this one, and basically making up phantom players that don't exist. To top it off, in an ideal lineup, Fukudome is batting 2nd with Green batting 5th or 6th. He wouldn't be setting tables...he'd be here to clean them off. He'd be batting behind the OBP guys to help bring them home. How is that a bad thing?

Adam Dunn has a unique style of being a home run hitter that actually gets on base at a high clip. Khalil Greene does not. He's a mini-Soriano. This team does not need Soriano in the lineup, let alone another one.

Ah, so Dunn's HR's count more because he takes more walks. Gotcha. That makes complete and total sense.

This team does not need Soriano? Yeah, the guy that hits 30+ HR's a year, 40 doubles and 70-100 RBI's with around a .900 OPS is "not needed." You may not want him hitting leadoff, but to act like he's somehow hurting the team when he's playing healthy is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen posted here. You're like the logic that makes OBP a smart thing run amuck into some ridiculous extreme where you think HR's, run, RBI's and hits accomplished by someone with a sub .350 OBP somehow don't count or "hurt the team." Then, to top it off, you cling to OBP, but then constantly toss out batting average like it actually proves anything. And you somehow think strikeouts are signifiantly "worse" outs than anything else.

Incredible. Listen to yourself. If a productive Soriano is a "problem," I wish this team had a lot more problems.

Can't decide if I want to comment on Dunn anymore or not :-). Again he is the only hitter in MLB of his kind. How many guys post an OBP 200 points above the BA and still barely manage to hit .240.

Would you rather have:

.240/.400/.900

or

.300/.380/.850

I'm not talking about Soriano vs. Dunn just in general. If you had the choice between Dunn and Pat Burrell who would you take?

Sammy Sofa · April 30, 2008

Are you asking me or wrigley23?

If you're asking me, aren't the Burrell numbers off from his career numbers? Or is this strictly a hypothetical season comparison?

I'd probably go with Dunn based on career numbers and that he's younger.

Edited April 30, 2008 by Sammy Sofa

shnsajax · April 30, 2008

Are you asking me or wrigley23?

Anyone? I know there are more Dunn lovers on this board than in Cinci. I like the guy, just think the hype is overblown and the OBP and OPS are not a strong indication of what kind of hitter he really is. I would love to have him as a run scorer, but would never count on him as a run producer.

jersey cubs fan · April 30, 2008

Would you rather have:
.240/.400/.900

or

.300/.380/.850

What are those numbers supposed to represent? Those look like some insane SLG to me.

jersey cubs fan · April 30, 2008

Are you asking me or wrigley23?

Anyone? I know there are more Dunn lovers on this board than in Cinci. I like the guy, just think the hype is overblown and the OBP and OPS are not a strong indication of what kind of hitter he really is. I would love to have him as a run scorer, but would never count on him as a run producer.

This is all nonsense. The OBP and OPS tell you exactly what type of hitter he is. And as somebody who gets on base a lot and hits for power, he absolutely is a run producer.

If you don't want him because he hits for too low an average and strikes out too much, admit it. But don't make up all the rest of that nonsense.

shnsajax · April 30, 2008

Are you asking me or wrigley23?

Anyone? I know there are more Dunn lovers on this board than in Cinci. I like the guy, just think the hype is overblown and the OBP and OPS are not a strong indication of what kind of hitter he really is. I would love to have him as a run scorer, but would never count on him as a run producer.

This is all nonsense. The OBP and OPS tell you exactly what type of hitter he is. And as somebody who gets on base a lot and hits for power, he absolutely is a run producer.

If you don't want him because he hits for too low an average and strikes out too much, admit it. But don't make up all the rest of that nonsense.

Most of the time you are right, again I said Dunn was the exception. Anytime your OBP can reach .200 great than your BA it is going to inflate your OPS. In what world is Adam Dunn considered a good hitter. Great slugger yes, good hitter no. He has 4 games this season in which he has an rbi without hitting a HR, thats not a run producer. Like I said he would be great for scoring runs, but I would never count on him to drive in critical runs.

Re: Where's Meph? (Khalil Greene)

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