Is it time to make Cedeno a starter?

[Rob]

And it's not like Theriot hasn't made a crapload of idiotic mistakes lately. Why does he get a free pass?

 

probably because he generally has good fundamentals and people aren't going to overreact about a few baserunning mistakes made in one week.

 

Does he, really? Or is that just perception? What does that even mean?

 

yes, he does. he's a good baserunner, steals bases at a good rate, shows good patience at the plate and doesn't make many errors. there's plenty to criticize with theriot, like his ability to hit and his range in the field.

 

He used to steal bases at a good rate. This year, he's got a 58.3% success rate. (7 SB, 5 CS)

[David]

Not to mention the fact that he probably was out for two of those.

[Jehrico]

im just glad cedeno's doing this ish at the major league level and not rotting away in AAA ala Soto in '07

Hard to say that Soto's '07 experience didn't help him...

[Jehrico]

Interesting note on Cedeno: For the month of April, Ronnie finished with 16 RBI, good for a 6-way tie for 30th place in the NL. However, of those top 30 RBI men in the NL, Ronnie was fewest in ABs at 45. The next fewest? Jeff Kent with 86 ABs and 16 RBI.

 

I know RBI are certainly not the best metric for judging hitters, they're reflective of the surrounding lineup, etc. But Ronnie has been coming up big with guys on. Actually he's only got a .313 avg with RISP, I thought it'd be higher.

this helps explain his RBI total. his line with the bases loaded -- 833/833/1.667/2.500

 

IsoD of .000? Loser.

Proof that IsoD is snake oil :mrgreen:

[Old Style]

A good baserunner doesn't fail to score from 2nd on a double. A good baserunner doesn't get thrown out at third with no outs, especially in a tie game. And that's just the last two days. Theriot may be hitting well, but he needs to sit on the bench and watch Cedeno start at SS.

[sneakypower]

he won't

 

lou prefers a guy he trusts to be #2 hitter

 

lets all belabor the point anyways and moan about a non issue that would have very marginal effect

[SouthSideRyan]

he won't

 

lou prefers a guy he trusts to be #2 hitter

 

lets all belabor the point anyways and moan about a non issue that would have very marginal effect

 

Ronny over Theriot is not a marginal difference.

[MPrior]

he won't

 

lou prefers a guy he trusts to be #2 hitter

 

lets all belabor the point anyways and moan about a non issue that would have very marginal effect

 

Ronny over Theriot is not a marginal difference.

 

Well, to be fair, it might be. I don't think it will be, but it might. Cedeno, it's true, has not had extended success against ML pitching. I hasten to point out that I'm not suggesting that he's no good, or that he shouldn't be played because of that, I'm merely saying that we only want him to start because of the probability that he will be a better player. So if he were the starter, it's possible that he would only be a marginal upgrade.

 

However, I still want him to start, and I believe that he'd be a significant upgrade, especially when you consider his defense on top of his offensive superiority.

[CuseCubFan69]

I used to be more for Theriot because I thought he also ran the bases better but he has screwed up a lot lately on the base paths and now Ronny has it over him in every way except for SB's.

[TruffleShuffle]

he won't

 

lou prefers a guy he trusts to be #2 hitter

 

lets all belabor the point anyways and moan about a non issue that would have very marginal effect

 

Ronny over Theriot is not a marginal difference.

 

Well, to be fair, it might be. I don't think it will be, but it might. Cedeno, it's true, has not had extended success against ML pitching. I hasten to point out that I'm not suggesting that he's no good, or that he shouldn't be played because of that, I'm merely saying that we only want him to start because of the probability that he will be a better player. So if he were the starter, it's possible that he would only be a marginal upgrade.

 

However, I still want him to start, and I believe that he'd be a significant upgrade, especially when you consider his defense on top of his offensive superiority.

 

i really wish that cedeno were as good defensively as everyone thinks he is.

[Mizzou]

A good baserunner doesn't fail to score from 2nd on a double. A good baserunner doesn't get thrown out at third with no outs, especially in a tie game. And that's just the last two days. Theriot may be hitting well, but he needs to sit on the bench and watch Cedeno start at SS.

Because as we've seen in the past, Cedeno is clearly an expert on the basepaths.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'll be honest here...I'm thrilled the Cubs have 2 SS's hitting this well and I hope it continues.

[C.C.]

I'll be honest here...I'm thrilled the Cubs have 2 SS's hitting this well and I hope it continues.

 

And SS was suppose to be our weakness.

[nilodnayr]

And it's not like Theriot hasn't made a crapload of idiotic mistakes lately. Why does he get a free pass?

 

probably because he generally has good fundamentals and people aren't going to overreact about a few baserunning mistakes made in one week.

 

Does he, really? Or is that just perception? What does that even mean?

 

yes, he does. he's a good baserunner, steals bases at a good rate, shows good patience at the plate and doesn't make many errors. there's plenty to criticize with theriot, like his ability to hit and his range in the field.

 

FYI Theriot was last among Cub starters in pitches/plate appearance last year as he is this year.

[Jehrico]

he won't

 

lou prefers a guy he trusts to be #2 hitter

 

lets all belabor the point anyways and moan about a non issue that would have very marginal effect

 

Ronny over Theriot is not a marginal difference.

 

Well, to be fair, it might be. I don't think it will be, but it might. Cedeno, it's true, has not had extended success against ML pitching. I hasten to point out that I'm not suggesting that he's no good, or that he shouldn't be played because of that, I'm merely saying that we only want him to start because of the probability that he will be a better player. So if he were the starter, it's possible that he would only be a marginal upgrade.

 

However, I still want him to start, and I believe that he'd be a significant upgrade, especially when you consider his defense on top of his offensive superiority.

How about this...there's a very good chance that the upgrade from Theriot to Cedeno will end up being quite significant.

 

Even if Cedeno doesn't play any better than Theriot is now, Theriot isn't likely to continue hitting as well as he is right now. You have to consider that as well.

[Abe Frohman]

Even if Cedeno doesn't play any better than Theriot is now, Theriot isn't likely to continue hitting as well as he is right now. You have to consider that as well.

 

Ummm, what if he does? Is Ronny Cedeno going to continue to hit as well as he is right now? They are both hot, they both should play. What exactly has Theriot done to lose his job?

 

I don't think that the Theriot/Cedeno "competition" is really a problem for the Cubs right now. Soriano batting at the top of the order is the problem. The Cubs had a good thing going with Johnson/Theriot at the top.

[Mizzou]

And it's not like Theriot hasn't made a crapload of idiotic mistakes lately. Why does he get a free pass?

 

probably because he generally has good fundamentals and people aren't going to overreact about a few baserunning mistakes made in one week.

 

Does he, really? Or is that just perception? What does that even mean?

 

yes, he does. he's a good baserunner, steals bases at a good rate, shows good patience at the plate and doesn't make many errors. there's plenty to criticize with theriot, like his ability to hit and his range in the field.

 

FYI Theriot was last among Cub starters in pitches/plate appearance last year as he is this year.

Which doesn't really mean anything.

[nilodnayr]

And it's not like Theriot hasn't made a crapload of idiotic mistakes lately. Why does he get a free pass?

 

probably because he generally has good fundamentals and people aren't going to overreact about a few baserunning mistakes made in one week.

 

Does he, really? Or is that just perception? What does that even mean?

 

yes, he does. he's a good baserunner, steals bases at a good rate, shows good patience at the plate and doesn't make many errors. there's plenty to criticize with theriot, like his ability to hit and his range in the field.

 

FYI Theriot was last among Cub starters in pitches/plate appearance last year as he is this year.

Which doesn't really mean anything.

 

It does if you are trying to argue that he shows good patience at the plate.

[Mizzou]

And it's not like Theriot hasn't made a crapload of idiotic mistakes lately. Why does he get a free pass?

 

probably because he generally has good fundamentals and people aren't going to overreact about a few baserunning mistakes made in one week.

 

Does he, really? Or is that just perception? What does that even mean?

 

yes, he does. he's a good baserunner, steals bases at a good rate, shows good patience at the plate and doesn't make many errors. there's plenty to criticize with theriot, like his ability to hit and his range in the field.

 

FYI Theriot was last among Cub starters in pitches/plate appearance last year as he is this year.

Which doesn't really mean anything.

 

It does if you are trying to argue that he shows good patience at the plate.

Not really. Showing patience means waiting for a good pitch to hit. With Theriot hitting in front of Lee, that pitch typically comes early in the at bat. Just because a guy doesn't see a lot of pitches in at bat doesn't make him impatient.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even if Cedeno doesn't play any better than Theriot is now, Theriot isn't likely to continue hitting as well as he is right now. You have to consider that as well.

 

Ummm, what if he does? Is Ronny Cedeno going to continue to hit as well as he is right now? They are both hot, they both should play. What exactly has Theriot done to lose his job?

 

I don't think that the Theriot/Cedeno "competition" is really a problem for the Cubs right now. Soriano batting at the top of the order is the problem. The Cubs had a good thing going with Johnson/Theriot at the top.

 

What was the Cubs leadoff OBP after Soriano went down?

[Jehrico]

Even if Cedeno doesn't play any better than Theriot is now, Theriot isn't likely to continue hitting as well as he is right now. You have to consider that as well.

 

Ummm, what if he does?

What if he doesn't? What if Ronny hits 1.000 for the rest of the year? What if he does is the wrong question to ask, because there's no way of answering it. The right question to ask is "What is he most likely to do?" You ask that for all options, then you put the option on the field that most likely will give you the better chance to win.

 

Is Ronny Cedeno going to continue to hit as well as he is right now?

Who knows, maybe, maybe not. I think he's more likely Cedeno keeps an OPS between .850-.900 than it is for Theriot to keep over .800 over the course of the year. You can argue how well either candidate projects over the remainder of the season, but you can't argue what the better decision is based on what someone might do.

What exactly has Theriot done to lose his job?

What more does Cedeno have to do to play more than half the time?

I don't think that the Theriot/Cedeno "competition" is really a problem for the Cubs right now. Soriano batting at the top of the order is the problem. The Cubs had a good thing going with Johnson/Theriot at the top.

Let's not forget Johnson's history. We aquired him after he was cut by another team. He's had an outstanding start, like Theriot has. But, like Theriot, it'd be a foolish move to expect him to continue performing at such a high level. He's 31, so his peak years are behind him. His career OPS+ is less than 100. Even after his hot start, his recent cool off has his OPS+ down in the 80s. He's not a good option to keep in the leadoff spot. He was hot, and Lou rode him in that position. That's what a good manager does, just don't confuse it for long term strategy. Theriot is somewhat similar situation, just with better reasonable projections than Reed.

[jersey cubs fan]

Let's not forget Johnson's history. We aquired him after he was cut by another team. He's had an outstanding start, like Theriot has. But, like Theriot, it'd be a foolish move to expect him to continue performing at such a high level. He's 31, so his peak years are behind him. His career OPS+ is less than 100. Even after his hot start, his recent cool off has his OPS+ down in the 80s. He's not a good option to keep in the leadoff spot. He was hot, and Lou rode him in that position. That's what a good manager does, just don't confuse it for long term strategy. Theriot is somewhat similar situation, just with better reasonable projections than Reed.

 

Well written.

 

As a note, despite the hot start and cult hero status, Reed has a sub 700 OPS. .286/.367/.321 doesn't look all that bad thanks to the decent OBP, but that's not going to last. In addition, he's hitting .283/.322/.321 against RHP. Hopefully Lou stops being fooled by the brief hot streak and realizes who Reed Johnson is, a good option to hit against LHP, but nothing more.

[Abe Frohman]

 

What was the Cubs leadoff OBP after Soriano went down?

 

From April 16 - 30, the Cubs had a .322 OB% out of the #1 spot in the order (mostly Reed Johnson, with Mike Fontenot and Eric Patterson). Point taken. RJ seemed a lot more productive than that. Guess it helps to look at the numbers....

[abuck1220]

i really wish that cedeno were as good defensively as everyone thinks he is.

 

i really wish that theriot was as good a baserunner as you think he is.

[nilodnayr]

Even if Cedeno doesn't play any better than Theriot is now, Theriot isn't likely to continue hitting as well as he is right now. You have to consider that as well.

 

Ummm, what if he does? Is Ronny Cedeno going to continue to hit as well as he is right now? They are both hot, they both should play. What exactly has Theriot done to lose his job?

 

I don't think that the Theriot/Cedeno "competition" is really a problem for the Cubs right now. Soriano batting at the top of the order is the problem. The Cubs had a good thing going with Johnson/Theriot at the top.

 

What was the Cubs leadoff OBP after Soriano went down?

 

I didn't feel like doing the math, but as a leadoff hitter, sori had a 250 OBP in 52 ABs, the cubs in total have a 262 OBP in 127 ABs. Reed has a 220/340/244 line there in 41 ABs. In other words, with or without Sori, the cubs have sucked out of the leadoff spot.

 

They've just lit it up in 3 (Lee), 4 (ARam), 6 (DeRo), and 7 (Soto), compared to the league.