Fukudome Signs with Cubs for 4 years (MLB.com: $48 M)

[nilodnayr]

Thanks for note about Fuku's home park dimensions. That's encouraging. 16-foot walls, that's pretty high. And the impression I've gotten is that he's a gap hitter. So perhaps he'll get some HR's into the shallow Wrigley alleys that would not have cleared in Japan.

 

I'm cautious on the Prospectus projection for him. Projecting any hitter is hard, but even more so a switch like this.

 

I'm a believer that HR's are a huge factor in batting average and OBP (every HR is a hit) and in slugging (every HR contributes 4 total bases). The difference between hitting 30, 25, 20, 15, or 10 HR's, large differences in hitting stats even if all other aspects of hitting are the same. I'd think it will be awfully hard to have a .401 OBP and .905 OPS if he doesn't hit 20 HR's. There's lots more to offense than HR's, but they are an extremely efficient way to score runs and to build positive statistics. Whether Fuku hits 25 or 15 will significantly impact how all his hitting numbers, OBP included, play out.

 

Derrek Lee had a 400 OBP and a 913 OPS last year, hitting 22 HRs. Helton had a 434 OBP and a 928 OPS last year, hitting 17 HRs. In 2006 Jeter had a 417 OBP and a 900 OPS, hitting 14 HRs. Carlos Guillen had a 400 OBP and a 920 OPS, hitting 19 HRs.

 

Its definitely within the realm of possibility, there were plenty of other examples as well. The key is doubles. All of the guys above had 39 or more doubles. If you use PECOTA's projections over 650 PAs, Fukudome projects to hit 21 HRs and 42 2bs.

 

To your point about HRs being important though...a fun exercise is to take a look at Lee's 2007 #s. Lets just say that 2 of his 2bs become homers and 2 of his fly outs become homers. His OPS increases 30 points. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

[craig]

hes hit 30 hrs there twice, he wont hit 30 here.

 

Absolutely not, that's obvious. Many of the Japanese hitters have lost lots of their HR output after coming over (Kaz, Johjima, Iwamura). If Fukudome has a HR drop comparable to theirs, it's hard to envision him posting the kind of exaggerated superstar numbers (>.400 OBP, >.900 OPS) that BP projects. Whether he slips from 30's to 20 HR or to 7 HR (Iwamura), that will matter a lot.

 

If his Japanese park was less HR-friendly than those of the other Japanese guys, and given that Wrigley is more HR-friendly than Seattle or Tampa or Mets, I'm hoping that Fuku's HR's will not drop quite as sharply. To drop by 10 would be better than dropping by 20+.

 

nilo, I know it's possible and precedented to OBP at .400 without 20 HR's. Mark Grace did it 3 times. But it's very difficult, and few of those who do it K as frequently as Fuku did in Japan. It's possible that Fuku will be one of the few who does, but IMO not very likely. A lot more likely to happen or get close if he gets 20 HR's.

[nilodnayr]

hes hit 30 hrs there twice, he wont hit 30 here.

 

Absolutely not, that's obvious. Many of the Japanese hitters have lost lots of their HR output after coming over (Kaz, Johjima, Iwamura). If Fukudome has a HR drop comparable to theirs, it's hard to envision him posting the kind of exaggerated superstar numbers (>.400 OBP, >.900 OPS) that BP projects. Whether he slips from 30's to 20 HR or to 7 HR (Iwamura), that will matter a lot.

 

If his Japanese park was less HR-friendly than those of the other Japanese guys, and given that Wrigley is more HR-friendly than Seattle or Tampa or Mets, I'm hoping that Fuku's HR's will not drop quite as sharply. To drop by 10 would be better than dropping by 20+.

 

nilo, I know it's possible and precedented to OBP at .400 without 20 HR's. Mark Grace did it 3 times. But it's very difficult, and few of those who do it K as frequently as Fuku did in Japan. It's possible that Fuku will be one of the few who does, but IMO not very likely. A lot more likely to happen or get close if he gets 20 HR's.

 

To be honest, I'm more in the CHONE camp than the PECOTA camp in terms of my projections.

 

If you use Hideki Matsui's last three season in Japan compared to his first three seasons in MLB, Fukudome's 3 year average triple slash numbers would be 298/354/442. If you use Ichiro, its 298/383/478. Personally, he seems more Matsui than Ichiro to me (not to say hes like Matsui, but that hes doesn't look like a slap hitter). But either way, he appears to be around the 800-850 range, rather than 900 OPS.

 

I also did another translation using BA/IsoD/IsoP to calc triple stat translations and came to a Matsui translation of 298/359/452 and an Ichiro translation of 398/375/455.

 

I know Meph did some quick EQA translations that were much more optimistic and he said hes working on a deeper dive. It'd be interesting to see those, especially if he can include park factors.

[brinoch]

Given Kosuke's home park dimensions in Japan, I don't think 20 HR's is unrealistic. Wrigley is shallower in the power alleys, longer along the lines, and the Cubs get to play several games in bandboxes like GAB.

[OleMissCub]

Given Kosuke's home park dimensions in Japan, I don't think 20 HR's is unrealistic. Wrigley is shallower in the power alleys, longer along the lines, and the Cubs get to play several games in bandboxes like GAB.

 

Don't forget the Juice Box too.

[craig]

nilo, I think most of your projections, nearer .800 than .900, seem more likely to me.

 

brinoch, one of the other factors in terms of total HR volume is that majors play more games. He was playing 140 game seasons in Japan. If you hit a HR every ten games , an extra 20 games could be worth an extra couple of HR's.

[Mephistopheles]

144*

[CuseCubFan69]

144*

 

That's gross.

[PrimeTime]

Kosuke is in Chicago today for his physical..Looks liek he will be introduced to the chicago media and Japanese media tommorrow...He was reported to have said " Wow,Really Cold!" when he got to O'Hare

[BCVM22]

Kosuke is in Chicago today for his physical..Looks liek he will be introduced to the chicago media and Japanese media tommorrow...When he arrived at O'Hare,reportedly his words were " Wow,Really Cold!"

 

Thanks for the update.

[C.C.]

Kosuke is in Chicago today for his physical..Looks liek he will be introduced to the chicago media and Japanese media tommorrow...He was reported to have said " Wow,Really Cold!" when he got to O'Hare

 

 

What a whimp! This is a warm day for Chicago Winter.

[dorjecub]

Here's a gem from the Muskat:

 

Now that the Cubs have Fukudome, what will the team do to help break him into MLB? Can Lou speak with him? Is there any way the Cubs would sign So Taguchi to help Fukudome in the bigs?

-- John K., Orland Park, Ill.

 

Piniella said he spoke Spanish with Ichiro when they were together in Seattle. The Cubs do plan on providing an interpreter if needed, and will do whatever they can to make him comfortable in Chicago. I don't think adding another Japanese player is necessary.

 

Spanish?

[jersey cubs fan]

Here's a gem from the Muskat:

 

Now that the Cubs have Fukudome, what will the team do to help break him into MLB? Can Lou speak with him? Is there any way the Cubs would sign So Taguchi to help Fukudome in the bigs?

-- John K., Orland Park, Ill.

 

Piniella said he spoke Spanish with Ichiro when they were together in Seattle. The Cubs do plan on providing an interpreter if needed, and will do whatever they can to make him comfortable in Chicago. I don't think adding another Japanese player is necessary.

 

Spanish?

 

Ichiro and Lou can both speak Spanish, I assume Lou better than Ichiro. That's how they communicated. In other words, Lou doesn't speak Japanese.

[1908]

Here's a gem from the Muskat:

 

Now that the Cubs have Fukudome, what will the team do to help break him into MLB? Can Lou speak with him? Is there any way the Cubs would sign So Taguchi to help Fukudome in the bigs?

-- John K., Orland Park, Ill.

 

Piniella said he spoke Spanish with Ichiro when they were together in Seattle. The Cubs do plan on providing an interpreter if needed, and will do whatever they can to make him comfortable in Chicago. I don't think adding another Japanese player is necessary.

 

Spanish?

Ichiro speaks Spanish.

[Balsa]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

[Mephistopheles]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

 

they both have japanese ties, who knows if they speak the language at all

[Outshined_One]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

 

they both have japanese ties, who knows if they speak the language at all

 

What are Soriano's Japanese ties, out of curiosity?

[wilk]

Soriano speaks Japanese. I don't know how much Lee knows.

[Mephistopheles]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

 

they both have japanese ties, who knows if they speak the language at all

 

What are Soriano's Japanese ties, out of curiosity?

 

he played in japan

[YearofDaCubs]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

 

they both have japanese ties, who knows if they speak the language at all

 

What are Soriano's Japanese ties, out of curiosity?

He played in Japan before he played in MLB.

[Outshined_One]

Huh. I never knew that.

[Warpticon]

Don't both Derrek Lee and Soriano speak Japanese?

 

Or am I just makin' stuff up?

 

they both have japanese ties, who knows if they speak the language at all

 

nihongo o hanashimasen

[Mephistopheles]

boku wa nihongo o hanashimasen

[A New Era]

boku wa nihongo o hanashimasen

 

You're what to Japan? What does Hanashi mean?