MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[David]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

Roberts had a WARP of 7.1 last year (DeRo's was 4.5, FWIW). That's a fairly big difference.

 

In 2006, Roberts had an off year at 4.2, which is still right in line with what DeRosa did for us last year. In 2005, Roberts had a WARP of 9.4.

 

So, in the last few years, BRob's least productive year was worth .3 wins less than DeRosa's 2007, which exceeded most of our expectations and left us all pretty happy. I'm not really sure either way whether we can expect DeRosa to produce the way he did last year. On the one hand, he made some adjustments to his swing and since has made clear improvements in his production. Ask some of the resident experts, though, and they'll still tell you that 2007 was flukish and he probably won't be able to repeat that next year. I'm sort of on the fence, but I'm usually optimistic so I tend to lean toward the former. That aside, it's still far from a sure thing.

 

To me, Roberts over DeRosa in itself is more than a marginal upgrade. Couple it with the fact that you either have DeRosa taking the bench ABs away from the likes of Fontenot and others or you're flipping DeRosa for another SP (i.e. Burnett), and it's a clear cut upgrade.

 

I seriously don't understand why people are so willingly brushing Roberts aside like he's nothing special while at the same time overvaluing DeRo.

 

Sure, I wish they'd address SS instead, as it's a more obvious hole, but that doesn't make this acquisition any less palatable.

[erik316wttn]

I'd be pumped if Burnett and Roberts were the rest of our off season.

 

Ugh. Just say no to Burnett.

 

If we're going to get an arm, let's go after Blanton.

 

Would Murton be of interest to Beane as part of a package for Blanton?

[Guest]

Not to mention a Roberts trade robs us of our most valuable trade chips, robs the Cubs of their best chances for quality starters to replace Marquis and Dempster, and robs us of our best option from when Theriot inevitably plays himself out of a job.

 

This is quite frankly the most important point in this trade (as Rob also added in his more detailed, but great, post).

[David]

What has the cubs one glaring need been forever?

 

Heres the answer..... a prototypical lead-off hitter,

 

No. No it has not been the one glaring need. Leadoff hitter is not a position, it's just a spot in the order that any of the 8 position players can fill. This team's most glaring need for a very long time has been walks, and players who are both willing and capable of taking them. A little more generally, they've lacked OBP. And to the extent that a new hitter can significantly improve the OBP by replacing somebody who is already here, that player would have considerable value to the Cubs.

 

Yeah, I'm not so sure the "prototypical leadoff hitter" is this holy grail of making a World Series, either. Plenty of teams have done it without one. I'm more concerned with the overall OBP now -- and I'm still leery that Roberts is going to suffer a drop in production.

 

I wouldn't mind getting the guy, but the back of our rotation is suddenly going to look mighty shaky. And wasn't SP a big advantage that eventually lifted us over the Crew last year?

 

Why?

 

They've been testing for steroids for a few years now, and the Mitchell report has nothing to do with baseball's testing or the last few seasons, or anything, really. The Mitchell Report is just a joke, actually, but that's a separate argument.

 

Even if Roberts was still on steroids the last few years (which, to me, is doubtful in itself), it would mean that he has found some way to beat the testing. The Mitchell Report wouldn't really change this. If he wasn't, then his production from the last few years is legit anyway.

[jersey cubs fan]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

I wouldn't characterize it as everybody thinks is only a marginal upgrade. I believe it's likely to be fairly sizable. As you say, not as significant as replacing the glaring hole at SS with even average production, but valuable nonetheless. I'm not overly excited about Roberts, but I think he would be a very solid addition to the lineup.

[David]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

I wouldn't characterize it as everybody thinks is only a marginal upgrade. I believe it's likely to be fairly sizable. As you say, not as significant as replacing the glaring hole at SS with even average production, but valuable nonetheless. I'm not overly excited about Roberts, but I think he would be a very solid addition to the lineup.

 

True, not everyone. I sort of fell into that trap of attributing the opinions of a few vocal posters to the whole board, but it sure does seem like a lot of posters are just brushing off Roberts like he's just "meh." Some even seem to talk like he's a mediocre or average player.

[TheDude]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

I wouldn't characterize it as everybody thinks is only a marginal upgrade. I believe it's likely to be fairly sizable. As you say, not as significant as replacing the glaring hole at SS with even average production, but valuable nonetheless. I'm not overly excited about Roberts, but I think he would be a very solid addition to the lineup.

 

Pretty well sums it up. If Roberts was SS, this board would be exploding with excitement. He is the right target for Hendry (in terms of player value) at the wrong position.

[jersey cubs fan]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

I wouldn't characterize it as everybody thinks is only a marginal upgrade. I believe it's likely to be fairly sizable. As you say, not as significant as replacing the glaring hole at SS with even average production, but valuable nonetheless. I'm not overly excited about Roberts, but I think he would be a very solid addition to the lineup.

 

True, not everyone. I sort of fell into that trap of attributing the opinions of a few vocal posters to the whole board, but it sure does seem like a lot of posters are just brushing off Roberts like he's nothing.

 

I think very few people are brushing him aside as nothing. It appears to me that most people who don't like the potential trade are far more concerned in the cost of that upgrade, rather than the upgrade itself. Most people seem to be acknowledging he would be a significant asset, but many of them don't like the idea of emptying out the back end of the already questionable rotation in order to get him.

 

I don't like the idea of just trading guys because they may appear to be blocked or not worth much to the Cubs.

[David]

I still don't understand why everyone thinks Roberts is only a "marginal" upgrade over DeRo. It's like everyone just assumes DeRosa is going to repeat last year. Even if he did, that's about the average we can expect from Roberts.

 

I wouldn't characterize it as everybody thinks is only a marginal upgrade. I believe it's likely to be fairly sizable. As you say, not as significant as replacing the glaring hole at SS with even average production, but valuable nonetheless. I'm not overly excited about Roberts, but I think he would be a very solid addition to the lineup.

 

Pretty well sums it up. If Roberts was SS, this board would be exploding with excitement. He is the right target for Hendry (in terms of player value) at the wrong position.

 

 

Yes and no. He's still a very significant upgrade over DeRosa in terms of expected production, which is the point I'm trying to get at. The problem is, like we've all said, SS is a more glaring hole and that seems to make a big difference in perception.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

What has the cubs one glaring need been forever?

 

Heres the answer..... a prototypical lead-off hitter...

 

Wonder how much it would cost to get Pierre from LA

 

on>

[David]

Yea, I sort of did a ninja edit there... You caught me, goony.

[Backtobanks]

"To me, Roberts over DeRosa in itself is more than a marginal upgrade. Couple it with the fact that you either have DeRosa taking the bench ABs away from the likes of Fontenot and others or you're flipping DeRosa for another SP (i.e. Burnett), and it's a clear cut upgrade."

 

I agree that if you are going to flip DeRosa for someone like Burnett, then I don't have a problem with the Roberts deal. The problem is that the latest rumors have a lot of our trade bait, that might be packaged with DeRosa, going for the upgrade (marginal or not) at 2B.

[YearofDaCubs]

You guys are right. What happens if Hendry completes the trade and doesn't trade for another starter? We're going to be stuck with Marquis and Demp in the rotation. I don't think I can handle seeing them pitch the entire season.

[rawaction]

I really want Roberts. I think it can be a significant upgrade. I actually don't think the proposed package is too much, it's just the wrong combo. I hate including Cedeno, but Marshall and Gallagher are replaceable. The problem is replacing both at the same time and only getting 1 piece to show for it. Even if it was Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal (or another top arm not named Ceda), I'd probably go for it, reluctantly giving up Ronny.

[YearofDaCubs]

I really want Roberts. I think it can be a significant upgrade. I actually don't think the proposed package is too much, it's just the wrong combo. I hate including Cedeno, but Marshall and Gallagher are replaceable. The problem is replacing both at the same time and only getting 1 piece to show for it. Even if it was Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal (or another top arm not named Ceda), I'd probably go for it, reluctantly giving up Ronny.

If we can get Roberts and another pitcher like Burnett I would be ecstatic going into the season.

[rawaction]

I really want Roberts. I think it can be a significant upgrade. I actually don't think the proposed package is too much, it's just the wrong combo. I hate including Cedeno, but Marshall and Gallagher are replaceable. The problem is replacing both at the same time and only getting 1 piece to show for it. Even if it was Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal (or another top arm not named Ceda), I'd probably go for it, reluctantly giving up Ronny.

If we can get Roberts and another pitcher like Burnett I would be ecstatic going into the season.

 

Definitely. Soriano/Roberts/Lee/Ramirez/Fukudome/Soto/Pie/Theriot lineup. Zambrano/Lilly/Burnett/Hill/Marquis would be solid. Another bat or arm could be added depending on how Pie/Marquis do.

[Bote McBoteface]

Why is everybody making such a huge deal about Sean Marshall being in on this trade? He is a non prospect, and he's the same guy that everybody wanted replaced last season, and the same guy that WAS replaced...with Steven Trachsel of all people. That right there should show you how much Hendry and Lou trust him. The only somewhat bad part about dealing him is that we have no backup when Demp and Marquis suck...but Marshall really isn't much better than those two anyways. Hendry can find another backup option, that shouldn't be much of a concern.

 

Losing Gallagher sucks, definitely. Cedeno is iffy. His time to prove himself has come and gone in the organization's book. He deserves another shot, but he probably won't get one. May as well trade him while he has some value. The only way this becomes a bad deal is if they include Murton, who is young and good, for Payton, who is old and sucks.

[David]

You guys are right. What happens if Hendry completes the trade and doesn't trade for another starter? We're going to be stuck with Marquis and Demp in the rotation. I don't think I can handle seeing them pitch the entire season.

 

 

I think we're stuck with that anyway if we don't pick up someone else. Those two would have to be Wade Miller-esque to lose their jobs to the kids, IMO. Hell, we had Steve Trachsel taking Marshall's starts in the middle of a pennant race.

[David]

Why is everybody making such a huge deal about Sean Marshall being in on this trade? He is a non prospect, and he's the same guy that everybody wanted replaced last season, and the same guy that WAS replaced...with Steven Trachsel of all people. That right there should show you how much Hendry and Lou trust him. The only somewhat bad part about dealing him is that we have no backup when Demp and Marquis suck...but Marshall really isn't much better than those two anyways. Hendry can find another backup option, that shouldn't be much of a concern.

 

Losing Gallagher sucks, definitely. Cedeno is iffy. His time to prove himself has come and gone in the organization's book. He deserves another shot, but he probably won't get one. May as well trade him while he has some value. The only way this becomes a bad deal is if they include Murton, who is young and good, for Payton, who is old and sucks.

 

 

What?

 

BTW, the fact that he was replaced by Steve Trachsel means nothing because it was an idiotic move in the first place.

 

I agree with the rest of the post, though.

Edited January 7, 2008 by David

[rawaction]

Why is everybody making such a huge deal about Sean Marshall being in on this trade? He is a non prospect, and he's the same guy that everybody wanted replaced last season, and the same guy that WAS replaced...with Steven Trachsel of all people. That right there should show you how much Hendry and Lou trust him. The only somewhat bad part about dealing him is that we have no backup when Demp and Marquis suck...but Marshall really isn't much better than those two anyways. Hendry can find another backup option, that shouldn't be much of a concern.

 

Losing Gallagher sucks, definitely. Cedeno is iffy. His time to prove himself has come and gone in the organization's book. He deserves another shot, but he probably won't get one. May as well trade him while he has some value. The only way this becomes a bad deal is if they include Murton, who is young and good, for Payton, who is old and sucks.

 

 

The bold is exactly what everyone has been arguing. Not that he's untouchable, just that you are trading your top 2 odds on favorite for the 5th starter in the same trade for a hitter at a non-need position. And I disagree that Marshall isn't any better than Marquis/Dempster.

[CubColtPacer]

You guys are right. What happens if Hendry completes the trade and doesn't trade for another starter? We're going to be stuck with Marquis and Demp in the rotation. I don't think I can handle seeing them pitch the entire season.

 

 

I think we're stuck with that anyway if we don't pick up someone else. Those two would have to be Wade Miller-esque to lose their jobs to the kids, IMO. Hell, we had Steve Trachsel taking Marshall's starts in the middle of a pennant race.

 

I could definitely see Dempster losing his starting position to Hart. Lou has been a lot more optimistic when talking about Hart then when he talks about Dempster.

[cbbryan]

Why is everybody making such a huge deal about Sean Marshall being in on this trade? He is a non prospect, and he's the same guy that everybody wanted replaced last season, and the same guy that WAS replaced...with Steven Trachsel of all people. That right there should show you how much Hendry and Lou trust him. The only somewhat bad part about dealing him is that we have no backup when Demp and Marquis suck...but Marshall really isn't much better than those two anyways. Hendry can find another backup option, that shouldn't be much of a concern.

 

Losing Gallagher sucks, definitely. Cedeno is iffy. His time to prove himself has come and gone in the organization's book. He deserves another shot, but he probably won't get one. May as well trade him while he has some value. The only way this becomes a bad deal is if they include Murton, who is young and good, for Payton, who is old and sucks.

 

On the contrary, there were alot of posters including myself that thought Marshall was doing a fine job in the rotation and that trading anything for Steve Trachsel was a horrendous move. I would much rather have Marshall in the rotation then Trachsel or Dempster to be honest.

[Guest]

It never fails to crack me up how some people use the word "everyone" when describing the reactions of the community.

[David]

It never fails to crack me up how some people use the word "everyone" when describing the reactions of the community.

 

Guilty.

[Sammy Sofa]

"Everyone?"

 

"EVERYYYYYYYYONNNNNNNNNNNNNE!!!"

 

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