MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Outshined_One]

So is this Roberts guy really that much of an improvement over DeRosa? I mean come on...I don't think anyone has presented a solid case...

 

 

 

 

I say we argue about it for another 20 pages.

[Post Count Padder]

So is this Roberts guy really that much of an improvement over DeRosa? I mean come on...I don't think anyone has presented a solid case...

 

 

 

 

I say we argue about it for another 20 pages.

Why stop at 20?

[cubbyvirus00]

worst thread of all time

[brinoch]

So is this Roberts guy really that much of an improvement over DeRosa? I mean come on...I don't think anyone has presented a solid case...

 

 

 

 

I say we argue about it for another 20 pages.

 

Good plan. I like it.

[Post Count Padder]

worst thread of all time

b&

[mhuber92211]

what is with the paperclip on the thread title now?

[inari]

you get tired of me bashing soriano as a leadoff hitter? I get tired of those saying he is fine there. I also get tired of the khalil green bandwagon. How is my drum banging any different than the others in regards to these players? to the poster that thinks his fantasy baseball skills rival those of hendry/piniella...you are really out of touch w/ reality. why did piniella bat sori leadoff last year? 1. there were no other options 2. that was part of the negotiation when sori was signed & helped him choose chicago over others. He is also on record saying he'd move out of the leadoff spot if it was best for the team. Stoney is on record saying sori will move only if a legit/better leadoff hitter was brought to the team. Kasper indicated today that fuko might be considered if we don't deal for roberts. our best case scenario is roberts & bedard while keeping hill somehow. we are overvaluing pie imo & should part w/ him, cedeno, gallagher & marshall & others. If you haven't noticed...we are going for it all these days. We will not win w/ sori hitting leadoff, w/ our current starting staff, w/ derosa & theriot starting at the same time. derosa is a super sub...plain & simple.

 

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count.

[Mephistopheles]

I love you Tomy so all is well in the world.

[third eye]

you get tired of me bashing soriano as a leadoff hitter? I get tired of those saying he is fine there. I also get tired of the khalil green bandwagon. How is my drum banging any different than the others in regards to these players? to the poster that thinks his fantasy baseball skills rival those of hendry/piniella...you are really out of touch w/ reality. why did piniella bat sori leadoff last year? 1. there were no other options 2. that was part of the negotiation when sori was signed & helped him choose chicago over others. He is also on record saying he'd move out of the leadoff spot if it was best for the team. Stoney is on record saying sori will move only if a legit/better leadoff hitter was brought to the team. Kasper indicated today that fuko might be considered if we don't deal for roberts. our best case scenario is roberts & bedard while keeping hill somehow. we are overvaluing pie imo & should part w/ him, cedeno, gallagher & marshall & others. If you haven't noticed...we are going for it all these days. We will not win w/ sori hitting leadoff, w/ our current starting staff, w/ derosa & theriot starting at the same time. derosa is a super sub...plain & simple.

 

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count.

 

 

Wrigley23,

 

I understand the point of view that someone who does something for a living has more expertise in a given field and is privy to information that the rest of the world isn't. Working in finance, I usually take offense to people trying to beat the market on a hunch or a tip, because there are people with better models and greater resources on the other side of any trade. But I think that line of thinking doesn’t work as well in a baseball context. The difference is, with baseball, most of the information about player performance, potential and likely outcomes is readily available. Additionally, an organization's philosophy generally can be easily surmised by the public record of their player development and personnel decisions.

 

Let’s look at a couple of public facts:

(1) Jim Hendry, when questioned a couple of years ago about the team's inability to get on base, responded by claiming that getting on base was not the problem. He argued the team was towards the top of the league in batting average, completely disregarding the fact that they were near the bottom in OBP. His inference was that the problem was driving runners in scoring position in. However, the team was no worse that league average with runners in scoring position.

(2) There are other GMs around the league who value advanced statistics in evaluating players. I would point to the following quote by the new GM of the pirates, Neal Huntington (not that this will make him successful, but just noting that others out there think about these things). "We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating."

(3) This is a personal anecdote - On Steven Levitt's blog a few months ago, he lobbied for his grad assistant to get a job with a major league team. I went to grad school with that assistant, and he get got plenty of interest from a number of MLB teams, but noted that the Cubs front office had no interest in someone with his background.

 

Now, given the public nature of facts like these, and the team's track record for addressing its weaknesses, it SHOULD be perfectly reasonably for me to question the judgment of the front office. In particular, this organization has always employed people with a "great baseball pedigree". Forget that Theo Epstein (again, not that he is the best GM) wouldn't fall into that bucket.

 

Hey, people who worked in mortgage securitizations, or with rating agencies and trading desks had a great "subprime pedigree". That doesn't mean that the people who noted the housing market was way out of whack, even though they didn’t work in it, had no basis for judgment. But with baseball, the information is far more transparent. It is totally reasonable for people to question the approach of an entrenched management regime. Hedge funds do it as activist shareholders. Lawyers do it with malpractice suits against physicians. As other posters have said, just because someone is in a position to make decisions, it doesn’t mean that their decisions shouldn't be questioned. Especially when we have access to a lot of the same information they do. It is a question of philosophy and judgment, not of information.

 

On a somewhat unrelated note, has anyone seen stats for league-wide OPS for batters with a runner on base with 30+ steals the previous season? I haven't seen the numbers to refute/support whether speed on base disrupts a pitcher, and I am stubbornly holding on to the fact that it does until I see otherwise. (sorry to derail the thread)

[David]

It's no use, dude.

 

Our fantasy skills are no match for the Cubs and their historically great decision makers.

[David]

Nice post, though.

[CubsWin]

IMO this is the best thread in NSBB history. :lol:

If it keeps going like this, it may soon be the only thread in NSBB history.

 

Never before has a thread's content been as much about the thread than it's supposed topic. It's become a blob-like movie monster feeding on itself, expanding, soon to absorb all other threads past and present. I love it.

[Schwarber Fan]

I don't know if there is any easy way to find out, but I wonder how many members have posted in this thread?

[Backtobanks]

I don't know if there is any easy way to find out, but I wonder how many members have posted in this thread?

 

Way too many.

[XZero771679666304]

IMO this is the best thread in NSBB history. :lol:

If it keeps going like this, it may soon be the only thread in NSBB history.

 

Never before has a thread's content been as much about the thread than it's supposed topic. It's become a blob-like movie monster feeding on itself, expanding, soon to absorb all other threads past and present. I love it.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v365/XZero77/pizzathehut.jpg

[Banedon]

what is with the paperclip on the thread title now?

 

Someone "attached" a picture instead of hosting it offsite. It's a new feature on phpbb3.

[Bear Cub]

Cant we just put this to sleep FOREVER?

[C.C.]

It keeps going and going and going....

[Vanilla Ice]

It keeps going and going and going....

 

that's what she said.

[BigbadB]

you get tired of me bashing soriano as a leadoff hitter? I get tired of those saying he is fine there. I also get tired of the khalil green bandwagon. How is my drum banging any different than the others in regards to these players? to the poster that thinks his fantasy baseball skills rival those of hendry/piniella...you are really out of touch w/ reality. why did piniella bat sori leadoff last year? 1. there were no other options 2. that was part of the negotiation when sori was signed & helped him choose chicago over others. He is also on record saying he'd move out of the leadoff spot if it was best for the team. Stoney is on record saying sori will move only if a legit/better leadoff hitter was brought to the team. Kasper indicated today that fuko might be considered if we don't deal for roberts. our best case scenario is roberts & bedard while keeping hill somehow. we are overvaluing pie imo & should part w/ him, cedeno, gallagher & marshall & others. If you haven't noticed...we are going for it all these days. We will not win w/ sori hitting leadoff, w/ our current starting staff, w/ derosa & theriot starting at the same time. derosa is a super sub...plain & simple.

 

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count.

 

 

Wrigley23,

 

I understand the point of view that someone who does something for a living has more expertise in a given field and is privy to information that the rest of the world isn't. Working in finance, I usually take offense to people trying to beat the market on a hunch or a tip, because there are people with better models and greater resources on the other side of any trade. But I think that line of thinking doesn’t work as well in a baseball context. The difference is, with baseball, most of the information about player performance, potential and likely outcomes is readily available. Additionally, an organization's philosophy generally can be easily surmised by the public record of their player development and personnel decisions.

 

Let’s look at a couple of public facts:

(1) Jim Hendry, when questioned a couple of years ago about the team's inability to get on base, responded by claiming that getting on base was not the problem. He argued the team was towards the top of the league in batting average, completely disregarding the fact that they were near the bottom in OBP. His inference was that the problem was driving runners in scoring position in. However, the team was no worse that league average with runners in scoring position.

(2) There are other GMs around the league who value advanced statistics in evaluating players. I would point to the following quote by the new GM of the pirates, Neal Huntington (not that this will make him successful, but just noting that others out there think about these things). "We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating."

(3) This is a personal anecdote - On Steven Levitt's blog a few months ago, he lobbied for his grad assistant to get a job with a major league team. I went to grad school with that assistant, and he get got plenty of interest from a number of MLB teams, but noted that the Cubs front office had no interest in someone with his background.

 

Now, given the public nature of facts like these, and the team's track record for addressing its weaknesses, it SHOULD be perfectly reasonably for me to question the judgment of the front office. In particular, this organization has always employed people with a "great baseball pedigree". Forget that Theo Epstein (again, not that he is the best GM) wouldn't fall into that bucket.

 

Hey, people who worked in mortgage securitizations, or with rating agencies and trading desks had a great "subprime pedigree". That doesn't mean that the people who noted the housing market was way out of whack, even though they didn’t work in it, had no basis for judgment. But with baseball, the information is far more transparent. It is totally reasonable for people to question the approach of an entrenched management regime. Hedge funds do it as activist shareholders. Lawyers do it with malpractice suits against physicians. As other posters have said, just because someone is in a position to make decisions, it doesn’t mean that their decisions shouldn't be questioned. Especially when we have access to a lot of the same information they do. It is a question of philosophy and judgment, not of information.

 

On a somewhat unrelated note, has anyone seen stats for league-wide OPS for batters with a runner on base with 30+ steals the previous season? I haven't seen the numbers to refute/support whether speed on base disrupts a pitcher, and I am stubbornly holding on to the fact that it does until I see otherwise. (sorry to derail the thread)

 

Very nice post. But, it will likely fall on deaf ears. I have attempted to explain to Wrigley23 several times that Soriano leading off does not hurt this team one bit. I have gone so far as to challenge that even if the Cubs got Roberts in a trade, that there is a very strong likelihood that Soriano still bats first and Roberts bats second. And I would be perfectly fine with that.

 

A good lead off hitter scores runs. A good lead off hitter doesn't just hit singles and steal bases. He puts himself in a position to score runs, period. Soriano does that with the best of the best lead off hitters in the game. Where Soriano lacks in OBP skills, he makes up for it in SLG skills. If the Cubs had both Soriano and Roberts, they would have arguably the best 1/2 punch in the game today.

 

I challenge Steve Stone to prove to me why Soriano isn't a lead off hitter. Go to ESPN, click on stats, click on all MLB hitters, click on the lead off hitter filter and look at the top lead off hitters in 2007. Soriano hangs with the best of them. Whether he's worth 130m+ is certainly arguable, but the production he provides in the lead off spot is worth its weight in gold. Especially when comparing him to a few of the past lead off hitters this team has had, like Juan Pierre and Corey Patterson.

[Pushfrog98]

what is with the paperclip on the thread title now?

 

Someone "attached" a picture instead of hosting it offsite. It's a new feature on phpbb3.

My bad...

[CyHawk_Cub]

you get tired of me bashing soriano as a leadoff hitter? I get tired of those saying he is fine there. I also get tired of the khalil green bandwagon. How is my drum banging any different than the others in regards to these players? to the poster that thinks his fantasy baseball skills rival those of hendry/piniella...you are really out of touch w/ reality. why did piniella bat sori leadoff last year? 1. there were no other options 2. that was part of the negotiation when sori was signed & helped him choose chicago over others. He is also on record saying he'd move out of the leadoff spot if it was best for the team. Stoney is on record saying sori will move only if a legit/better leadoff hitter was brought to the team. Kasper indicated today that fuko might be considered if we don't deal for roberts. our best case scenario is roberts & bedard while keeping hill somehow. we are overvaluing pie imo & should part w/ him, cedeno, gallagher & marshall & others. If you haven't noticed...we are going for it all these days. We will not win w/ sori hitting leadoff, w/ our current starting staff, w/ derosa & theriot starting at the same time. derosa is a super sub...plain & simple.

 

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count.

 

Dunno if logic is gonna get through..the premise of his arguments suggests a somewhat dependent mode of thought.

[UMFan83]

Anyone hear about this rumor of the Cubs possibly going after Brian Roberts?

[David]

Anyone hear about this rumor of the Cubs possibly going after Brian Roberts?

 

I heard we might get Alfonso Soriano, Jake Westbrook (or Ted Lilly), and Jackson Melian from the Yankees. That's like half their farm :shock: .

[SouthSideRyan]

Who's Brian Roberts?