The Kosuke Fukudome & Hiroki Kuroda Thread

[PrimeTime]

I have a feeling this is going to be the Furcal situation all over again..Hendry invsted all his time and everything into Furcal then when he signed elsewhere that just killed him when he couldn't get it done. Puting all his eggs in one basket.Seems lik he's doing that again with Fukudome. He has to get this done.

 

Edited by a mod to fix spelling of Fukudome.

[TheDude]

I have a feeling this is going to be the Furcal situation all over again..Hendry invsted all his time and everything into Furcal then when he signed elsewhere that just killed him when he couldn't get it done. Puting all his eggs in one basket.Seems lik he's doing that again with Fukudome. He has to get this done.

 

Edited by a mod to fix spelling of Fukudome.

 

What gives you the impression that all eggs are in the Fukudome basket? How did one report that the Cubs have interest in him turn into now he's the one and only target for the offseason?

[nilodnayr]

I have a feeling this is going to be the Furcal situation all over again..Hendry invsted all his time and everything into Furcal then when he signed elsewhere that just killed him when he couldn't get it done. Puting all his eggs in one basket.Seems lik he's doing that again with Fukudome. He has to get this done.

 

Edited by a mod to fix spelling of Fukudome.

 

What gives you the impression that all eggs are in the Fukudome basket? How did one report that the Cubs have interest in him turn into now he's the one and only target for the offseason?

 

A) there have been quite a few reports. Cubs have been mentioned more than anyone else

 

B) theres very little mention of other big name FAs

[CubColtPacer]

I have a feeling this is going to be the Furcal situation all over again..Hendry invsted all his time and everything into Furcal then when he signed elsewhere that just killed him when he couldn't get it done. Puting all his eggs in one basket.Seems lik he's doing that again with Fukudome. He has to get this done.

 

Edited by a mod to fix spelling of Fukudome.

 

What gives you the impression that all eggs are in the Fukudome basket? How did one report that the Cubs have interest in him turn into now he's the one and only target for the offseason?

 

A) there have been quite a few reports. Cubs have been mentioned more than anyone else

 

B) theres very little mention of other big name FAs

 

 

True, but there have been mentions of other options for that position. Crawford has also been mentioned repeatedly to fill the same spot, and Jose Guillen has been mentioned once or twice. It hasn't been completely Fukudome or bust, in fact it's questionable on if he's the Cubs top target or Crawford is from the reports.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

FYI- here's Keith Law's take on Fukudome as a prospect...

 

Fukudome is probably the only impact player who'll be coming over from Japan this winter, although we may see a handful of pitchers make the jump, some of whom could be league-average in the National League. Fukudome's game is similar to Bobby Abreu's current game, with a patient approach at the plate resulting in a lot of walks and strikeouts, with doubles power and good averages. Fukudome's swing is long because his load is deep, but he can square up balls in the zone; the length causes him more trouble on breaking stuff below his hitting plane. He's hit for some power in Japan, partly because he transfers his weight very well through the point of contact, but probably tops out at about 15-18 homers in the majors. He's solid in right field with an above-average arm. Look for Fukudome to sign a deal around three years that forbids his club from offering him arbitration after the deal, meaning that he'd become a free agent again at 33; this has been par for the course for most Japanese players coming to the U.S., with the exception of Daisuke Matsuzaka, who signed a six-year deal taking him all the way to true free agency.

[nilodnayr]

Yup, from all that I had read and stats, I made the comparison to this year's Abreu as well. Falls right inline with the ~800 OPS projection.

[Outshined_One]

For those in the know, if the Cubs were to trade Hill (let's assume for Crawford) and sign Kuroda, how much of a dropoff would there be, both in the short and long run?

[JeffH]

For those in the know, if the Cubs were to trade Hill (let's assume for Crawford) and sign Kuroda, how much of a dropoff would there be, both in the short and long run?

 

It's really impossible to tell, but the payroll would go up A LOT.

[Mephistopheles]

not a discussion in this thread, but it relevant. fyis

 

on average the translation of EqA to the US is .93.

 

Hideki Matsui's EqA in Japan routinely was around usually around .330 topping out in the .350 range. That's translated to an average around .305 and a max around .330 in the US. That's what he's been here. Pretty damn accurate translation.

 

Iwamura's EqA in Japan was almost always around .300 and always translated to the .280-.284 range. Guess what his EqA was? .284. Iwamura

 

Kenji's EqA was usually around .290-.295 in Japan with the notable exception of his career mvp season. That translates to the mid .270s....his EqA in the us is .275.

 

For the interested:

 

Fukudome

Year JPB --> MLB

2002 .311 --> .289

2003 .322 --> .299

2004 .305 --> .283

2005 .323 --> .301

2006 .350 --> .326

2007 .317 --> .294

 

For the even more interested, Kazuo Matsui:

1998 .287 --> .267

1999 .295 --> .274

2000 .295 --> .275

2001 .293 --> .273

2002 .316 --> .294

2003 .298 --> .277

 

He's obviously done worse than the translations, but the translations put his Japanese numbers at pretty a uninspiring as it is. The hype was unjustified.

 

For the even more interested, Hideki Matsui (note im using 2007 PF on these and YG's home park was much more of a hitter park relative to the league when he played there, but I did no adjustments there so the translations are a bit high):

 

1998 .316 --> .294

1999 .326 --> .303

2000 .334 --> .311

2001 .332 --> .309

2002 .341 --> .317 Note: 50 HR season

 

His five seasons in the US

2003 .279 - transition season...

2004 .316

2005 .305

2006 .310

2007 .301

 

For all intents and purposes, those are identical. Flat out identical.

[muntjack]

What I gather from all this is that Fukudome projects to be a LH Matt Murton. (albeit considerably older and more expensive)

 

~ .295/.360/.440

 

Poor Matt.

[Tracer Bullet]

What I gather from all this is that Fukudome projects to be a LH Matt Murton. (albeit considerably older and more expensive)

 

~ .295/.360/.440

 

Poor Matt.

 

Basically what I'm seeing too. Better defensively. Certainly much more expensive. I really don't get it. I just hope Murton's traded to some team I like b/c if he's traded to St Louis or NYY, I'm going to hate JH even more.

[Mephistopheles]

hes a little better than murton because murton doesnt face lefties as much as he gets to face righties. matt murton cant play center at an above average rate. fukudome can. Fukudome's ~.295 EqA with above average defense the last five seasons puts him second only to Grady Sizemore. He's comparable to Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon (not this year) and is better than Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells.

 

We're talking about a top five center fielder here if someone's smart and plays him there.

 

As for the line, probably more of a .300/.375/.470 hitter.

[E.J.]

hes a little better than murton because murton doesnt face lefties as much as he gets to face righties. matt murton cant play center at an above average rate. fukudome can. Fukudome's ~.295 EqA with above average defense the last five seasons puts him second only to Grady Sizemore. He's comparable to Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon (not this year) and is better than Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells.

 

We're talking about a top five center fielder here if someone's smart and plays him there.

 

As for the line, probably more of a .300/.375/.470 hitter.

 

Too bad if we get him we'll play him in RF.

[CuseCubFan69]

hes a little better than murton because murton doesnt face lefties as much as he gets to face righties. matt murton cant play center at an above average rate. fukudome can. Fukudome's ~.295 EqA with above average defense the last five seasons puts him second only to Grady Sizemore. He's comparable to Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon (not this year) and is better than Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells.

 

We're talking about a top five center fielder here if someone's smart and plays him there.

 

As for the line, probably more of a .300/.375/.470 hitter.

 

Too bad if we get him we'll play him in RF.

 

That is frustrating. Maybe the Cubs plan is this. Play Pie CF and Fukudome RF against righties and Fukudome CF and Murton RF against lefties?

[Sammy Sofa]

hes a little better than murton because murton doesnt face lefties as much as he gets to face righties. matt murton cant play center at an above average rate. fukudome can. Fukudome's ~.295 EqA with above average defense the last five seasons puts him second only to Grady Sizemore. He's comparable to Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon (not this year) and is better than Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells.

 

We're talking about a top five center fielder here if someone's smart and plays him there.

 

As for the line, probably more of a .300/.375/.470 hitter.

 

Too bad if we get him we'll play him in RF.

 

That is frustrating. Maybe the Cubs plan is this. Play Pie CF and Fukudome RF against righties and Fukudome CF and Murton RF against lefties?

 

Works for me. Or if Pie totally crap out, Fukudome takes over CF and Murton gets RF fulltime.

[soapy]

Or if Pie totally crap out, Fukudome takes over CF and Murton gets RF fulltime.

 

This is probably the way to go if they do sign Fukudome. Signing him allows them to hold on to Murton as a fourth outfielder or full-time RFer is Pie bombs. However, my guess is Murton is traded if they sign Fukudome. I don't have a problem with that, in the right scenario (which I don't expect Hendry to find).

[muntjack]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

[nilodnayr]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

[Post Count Padder]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

[nilodnayr]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

We might have to give a bit more, but its not too far off a win win.

[JeffH]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

They can keep Tejada and I'd still do it.

[Post Count Padder]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

We might have to give a bit more, but its not too far off a win win.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Dempster for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

[YearofDaCubs]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

We might have to give a bit more, but its not too far off a win win.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Dempster for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

There's no way I do that deal if I was Baltimore.

[nilodnayr]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

We might have to give a bit more, but its not too far off a win win.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Dempster for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

There's no way I do that deal if I was Baltimore.

 

That would sure help them start the rebuilding process.

 

I don't think its all that lopsided. Bedard is a poor man's Santana and Pie/Gallagher is a poor man's Kemp/Kershaw (Gallagher being a really poor man's Kershaw, but who isn't?). If I'm Balt. Although, I'd rather do Bedard for either Kemp or Kershaw straight up (by a lot).

 

Marshall, Cedeno, Dempster + Patterson or another pitcher isn't a bad haul for Tejada.

 

Its sure not a proposal that gets the phone hung up.

[YearofDaCubs]

That line is a bit better, but doesn't Matt project to improve his numbers a little with regular playing time and natural progression as he enters his prime years?

 

I would be thrilled with Fukudome in CF, but only if we could spin Pie off in a package for a BIG improvement at SS or RF, otherwise he's not worth it, imo.

 

I'm sure the Orioles would be interested.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Cedeno for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

 

We might have to give a bit more, but its not too far off a win win.

Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Dempster for Tejada and Bedard.

 

Done deal

There's no way I do that deal if I was Baltimore.

 

That would sure help them start the rebuilding process.

 

I don't think its all that lopsided. Bedard is a poor man's Santana and Pie/Gallagher is a poor man's Kemp/Kershaw (Gallagher being a really poor man's Kershaw, but who isn't?). If I'm Balt. Although, I'd rather do Bedard for either Kemp or Kershaw straight up (by a lot).

 

Marshall, Cedeno, Dempster + Patterson or another pitcher isn't a bad haul for Tejada.

 

Its sure not a proposal that gets the phone hung up.

Bedard was a top pitcher last year until they shut him down towards the end of the year. I think you are overvaluing Pie and Gallagher's value. Baltimore would be stupid to trade Bedard for that package.